The Draft (Postseason Edition): 1/16/31/59 (NEW POLL)

thamadkant · Post #561 » by **thamadkant** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:04 pm

I'm bracing myself for pick 4.

I've done the simulation over a hundred times combined now and pick 4 was the most common result. Something like 60% of the time Suns got either pick 3 or 4 and of those times pick 4 was 75% of the time.
Sad times.

Post #562 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:21 pm

thamadkant wrote:I'm bracing myself for pick 4.

I've done the simulation over a hundred times combined now and pick 4 was the most common result. Something like 60% of the time Suns got either pick 3 or 4 and of those times pick 4 was 75% of the time.
Sad times.

Well the real odds are 53.5% getting 3/4 and between 3 and 4 the odds would be a 2/3 chance we get 4.

BobbieL · Post #563 » by **BobbieL** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:44 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
thamadkant wrote:I'm bracing myself for pick 4.

I've done the simulation over a hundred times combined now and pick 4 was the most common result. Something like 60% of the time Suns got either pick 3 or 4 and of those times pick 4 was 75% of the time.
Sad times.

Well the real odds are 53.5% getting 3/4 and between 3 and 4 the odds would be a 2/3 chance we get 4.

I did it 5 times

1, 1, 4, 4 and 1

Post #564 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:00 pm

BobbieL wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
thamadkant wrote:I'm bracing myself for pick 4.

I've done the simulation over a hundred times combined now and pick 4 was the most common result. Something like 60% of the time Suns got either pick 3 or 4 and of those times pick 4 was 75% of the time.
Sad times.

Well the real odds are 53.5% getting 3/4 and between 3 and 4 the odds would be a 2/3 chance we get 4.

I did it 5 times

1, 1, 4, 4 and 1

ESPN now has their mock draft machine up too. http://www.espn.com/nba/lottery2018/mockdraft#

They have us with Ayton at 1, Doncic at 2 (unless Doncic goes 1 and I think I've only seen Memphis take him there), Jackson at 3 and Bagley at 4 (unless Bagley goes at 3, but the only team I've seen take Bagley at 3 is Charlotte).

Damkac · Post #565 » by **Damkac** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:48 pm

Is this based on some inside info or are they just guessing who would each team take?

Post #566 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:59 pm

Damkac wrote:Is this based on some inside info or are they just guessing who would each team take?

Guessing. I mean it's almost always the same I think...I did it maybe 10 times..but it looks like it's almost always Ayton/Doncic/Jackson/Bagley/Young/Carter and I saw Doncic and Ayton switched maybe once or twice, Jackson and Bagley switched maybe once or twice and Young and Carter switched once or twice. It didn't appear they made a ton of variations.

Of course in this and tankathon we end up 4th the most so we typically end up with Bagley. And then 1st the next most and get Ayton.

thamadkant · Post #567 » by **thamadkant** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:17 pm

The mocks around supports my belief that JJJ would be pick 1 if he stays next draft when it's weaker. Ayton and Doncic are just the safest picks because they are consensus and have produced.

Post #568 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:26 pm

thamadkant wrote:The mocks around supports my belief that JJJ would be pick 1 if he stays next draft when it's weaker. Ayton and Doncic are just the safest picks because they are consensus and have produced.

He would probably completely dominate next year. But even just placing him there next year right now he'd probably be right there with Barrett. Seems most would put Barrett around 3 if in this draft, but of course that's all based on hype.

Post #569 » by **lilfishi22** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:54 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
thamadkant wrote:The mocks around supports my belief that JJJ would be pick 1 if he stays next draft when it's weaker. Ayton and Doncic are just the safest picks because they are consensus and have produced.

He would probably completely dominate next year. But even just placing him there next year right now he'd probably be right there with Barrett. Seems most would put Barrett around 3 if in this draft, but of course that's all based on hype.

Has he declared for the draft?

Post #570 » by **bwgood77** » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:58 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
thamadkant wrote:The mocks around supports my belief that JJJ would be pick 1 if he stays next draft when it's weaker. Ayton and Doncic are just the safest picks because they are consensus and have produced.

He would probably completely dominate next year. But even just placing him there next year right now he'd probably be right there with Barrett. Seems most would put Barrett around 3 if in this draft, but of course that's all based on hype.

Has he declared for the draft?

Yes.

Post #571 » by **lilfishi22** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:01 am

Wasn't really following the conversation and thought he was still on the fence. But totally agree he would easily be the #1 pick next season with another full season under him and he'd still be less than a year older than top guys like RJ and Zion.

Post #572 » by **lilfishi22** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:33 am

Saberestar wrote:

Read on Twitter

Makes me feel more comfortable having Young at #3. At the same time, makes me feel less comfortable about Ayton at #2 but I don't have anyone else I want to replace him with

Post #573 » by **Qwigglez** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:57 am

Alright guys just 3 more weeks until we know our fate!
That's just 21 days, or about 515 hours, or 30900 minutes.

Damkac · Post #574 » by **Damkac** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:05 pm

Qwigglez wrote:Alright guys just 3 more weeks until we know our fate!
That's just 21 days, or about 515 hours, or 30900 minutes.

If Kidd is the coach I don't even care if Suns win the lottery.

Post #575 » by **Qwigglez** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:18 pm

Damkac wrote:
Qwigglez wrote:Alright guys just 3 more weeks until we know our fate!
That's just 21 days, or about 515 hours, or 30900 minutes.

If Kidd is the coach I don't even care if Suns win the lottery.

I know I won’t care who’s coaching if we win the lottery

NapoleonII · Post #576 » by **NapoleonII** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:23 pm

Qwigglez wrote:
Damkac wrote:
Qwigglez wrote:Alright guys just 3 more weeks until we know our fate!
That's just 21 days, or about 515 hours, or 30900 minutes.

If Kidd is the coach I don't even care if Suns win the lottery.

I know I won’t care who’s coaching if we win the lottery

True, Kidd is a 95% chance of being a 1-2 year disaster.

Winning the lottery can potentially lift this franchise for the next 15 years (Ayton or Doncic).

Post #577 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:14 pm

Qwigglez wrote:
Damkac wrote:
Qwigglez wrote:Alright guys just 3 more weeks until we know our fate!
That's just 21 days, or about 515 hours, or 30900 minutes.

If Kidd is the coach I don't even care if Suns win the lottery.

I know I won’t care who’s coaching if we win the lottery

Yeah, and if Kidd is coaching we may win it a few times in the next few years!

BobbieL · Post #578 » by **BobbieL** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:28 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
Qwigglez wrote:
Damkac wrote:If Kidd is the coach I don't even care if Suns win the lottery.

I know I won’t care who’s coaching if we win the lottery

Yeah, and if Kidd is coaching we may win it a few times in the next few years!

I am going with the belief that they called Kidd just to call him see he was pimping so hard for the job and using Gambo to do it. At least that's what I talked myself into.

But when I look at the list - I think "they interviewed so many coaches that fall more under the "teacher" category that it would be a surprise they go with Kidd. Ex player, limited experience, traded once, fired another time. But than again, BWG - you followed the Bolts - they interviewed SIX defensive coaches before they hired Lynn (who actually is better than I thought). And the Spani and Sarver have a LOT in common in terms of competency

But I am going to keep the hope alive and Igor Kokoskov will be the coach. Or Fizdale. Or Triano

WeekapaugGroove · Post #579 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:44 pm

NapoleonII wrote:
Qwigglez wrote:
Damkac wrote:If Kidd is the coach I don't even care if Suns win the lottery.

I know I won’t care who’s coaching if we win the lottery

True, Kidd is a 95% chance of being a 1-2 year disaster.

Winning the lottery can potentially lift this franchise for the next 15 years (Ayton or Doncic).

Potential bright side... if kidd is a disaster it definitely gets that fool McD gone quickly and maybe just maybe sarver finally has enough and sells the team.

Post #580 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:02 pm

BobbieL wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
Qwigglez wrote:
I know I won’t care who’s coaching if we win the lottery

Yeah, and if Kidd is coaching we may win it a few times in the next few years!

I am going with the belief that they called Kidd just to call him see he was pimping so hard for the job and using Gambo to do it. At least that's what I talked myself into.

But when I look at the list - I think "they interviewed so many coaches that fall more under the "teacher" category that it would be a surprise they go with Kidd. Ex player, limited experience, traded once, fired another time. But than again, BWG - you followed the Bolts - they interviewed SIX defensive coaches before they hired Lynn (who actually is better than I thought). And the Spani and Sarver have a LOT in common in terms of competency

But I am going to keep the hope alive and Igor Kokoskov will be the coach. Or Fizdale. Or Triano

Honestly, I think Kidd's camp finally called them and they talked to him and then Kidd's camp leaked it. As a matter of fact I think that's probably the case with a number of these guys. Their agent calls and says _______ would like to get a chance to talk with you so they take the call.

The only one it seems like they maybe intentionally leaked was Igor.

Who do you want us to draft?