2018 Offseason Thread

[getrichordie]

[Lowe] Russell Westbrook can't be OKC's entire system anymore

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23364202/zach-lowe-russell-westbrook-oklahoma-city-thunder-nba


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Great article. Zach fails to go to the next logical step and point out how unlikely it is at this stage in his career that Westbrook ever learns to play any other way though. Seems like he hints at that strongly and just doesn't quite want to flat out say it.

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Agreed. I think that’s why OKC has failed to implement a different system rather than the stack pick & roll system because that’s Westbrook’s strong suit. You build around his strengths. If you build around his weaknesses, he will be exposed big time. Simple team-building knowledge.

Problem is Westbrook isn’t Harden or LeBron.


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[Dadouv47]

Reading opposite statements, can we or not sign & trade PG13 after offering him a 5 year max contract?

[Pillendreher]

second, i believe westbrook's influence on the offense is overstated. he's a great offensive player but his flaws relative to harden and the others lowe mentions will always hold him back. i've noted this before, but the thunder offense with westbrook in the game this season being even above league average is entirely predicated on the offensive rebounding of steven adams (and to a lessor extent, others). the thunder are league average or worse at a factor level at eFG, TOV%, and FT/FGA with westbrook in the game this year, but blow the league away on ORB% because adams has turned into moses malone. some will quibble about how much influence westbrook has on ORB% but it's definitely the factor of the four he's least responsible for. by contrast, kemba walker's hornets have a better eFG, FT/FGA and TOV% when he is on the court. i don't think this should be the case if westbrook is as influential as lowe is implying.

It perfectly shows how much of an influence he has on the team's offense. Russ played like post achilles Kobe/Wizards Jordan the first 30 games or so. He started playing better in the middle of December. This is how before and after would rank on a whole season:

eFG%: 30th | 11th
FTr: 13th | 4th
TOV%: 24th | 5th
ORB%: 1st | 1st

Generally speaking, we rely on just a couple of guys for a lot of things. For foul drawing, you're basically looking at Westbrook, Grant, George and Adams. That's about it. For shooting, you're looking at a couple of decent shooters who don't get enough looks and also at a bunch of non-shooters who probably shoot too much.

I don't know if the discrepancy with other teams is this big as well, but I think this is quite interesting:



When your Top 4 in USG% is 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th on the team in eFG%, you're bound to struggle offensively. And of course it's not as easy as "Well, just make Andre Roberson 4th in usage", but I think we did have a problem with Russ' efficiency being complete ass for ~ 30 games (55 TS% to end the season over ~ 50 games) and Melo being way more washed up than imagined. Meanwhile our good 3pt shooters sometimes went games without getting quality shot attempts.

[getrichordie]

it's a great article. this is what i would add.

first is that, while the idea of westbrook + adams + three shooters and an all out spread pnr attack is appealing, it is still inherently limited by westbrook's poor pull-up shooting ability. lowe compared westbrook to harden in this vein and sort of skirts over that difference. i don't see it as such a minor thing. westbrook also runs into a similar problem harden has when building such a team, in that you need one or more of those shooters to be quality defensive wings as well because westbrook isn't going to defend. morey has chris paul now, and a stable of '3&D' wings to flank harden. that's not an easy thing to do.

second, i believe westbrook's influence on the offense is overstated. he's a great offensive player but his flaws relative to harden and the others lowe mentions will always hold him back. i've noted this before, but the thunder offense with westbrook in the game this season being even above league average is entirely predicated on the offensive rebounding of steven adams (and to a lessor extent, others). the thunder are league average or worse at a factor level at eFG, TOV%, and FT/FGA with westbrook in the game this year, but blow the league away on ORB% because adams has turned into moses malone. some will quibble about how much influence westbrook has on ORB% but it's definitely the factor of the four he's least responsible for. by contrast, kemba walker's hornets have a better eFG, FT/FGA and TOV% when he is on the court. i don't think this should be the case if westbrook is as influential as lowe is implying.

Influence doesn’t necessarily mean a positive impact. In this case, Lowe is talking about how much Westbrook impact the team’s offense while he’s on the court.

And your part about having a ton of 3&D players around Westbrook is dead on and I’ve been saying that in a lot of discussions. The inherit issue is that there isn’t a ton of players in the league that fit around Westbrook. It makes Sam’s job harder.

So, by this logic, Sam is handicapped because he has to go for a certain type of player which is hard to obtain, especially in a smaller market. But even if you did surround Westbrook with the same exact players Houston has, the offense still wouldn’t be able to ever reach that level due to Westbrook’s poor outside shooting.


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[slick_watts]

When your Top 4 in USG% is 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th on the team in eFG%, you're bound to struggle offensively. And of course it's not as easy as "Well, just make Andre Roberson 4th in usage", but I think we did have a problem with Russ' efficiency being complete ass for ~ 30 games (55 TS% to end the season over ~ 50 games) and Melo being way more washed up than imagined. Meanwhile our good 3pt shooters sometimes went games without getting quality shot attempts.

yeah, i know. you'll pull whatever segment of the year you want to make westbrook look okay. want to try the playoffs? he's supposed to have healed by now right? of course you don't.

my point is that if you took the real ethereal offensive talents off their teams and stuck them on the thunder you'd probably see real movement on something other than offensive rebounding. yes, westbrook has a huge positive impact on the offense within the context of the thunder itself. 1) because he tends to play most with the best teammates and 2) he's way, way, way, better than raymond felton. but i think we're all looking for something other than that for $200mm+. kemba walker has a huge impact on the charlotte offense. damian lillard has a huge impact on the portland offense. we're not talking about that.

[Bergmaniac]

These "5 dumb shots per game" is what has always drove me crazy about Westbrook. It's not like it's hard to see these are bad shots. I bet pretty much anyone who watches him regularly and roots for the Thunder winces when he takes a 20 footer with a hand in his face with 17 seconds on the shot clock. That shot will always be there if you can't achieve a better look for yourself or a teammate, why bail the defence out? And they aren't even heat checks for the most part, he shoots them after having gone 1/5 on the previous possessions too.

It's particularly annoying when he's gone 10-15 possessions playing the right way, getting to the rim or to his sweet spots, finding open teammates, using the shot clock wisely, the offense is flowing and then bam...he chuck 2 dumb shots in a row which often largely negate all the positives of the previous minutes. Harden and Durant take a lot of similar shots which would be bad for 99% of the players in the league, but they are good enough shooters to get away with it. Westbrook is not.

[bondom34]

^^^
What he said. And Westbrook absolutely has a massive positive offensive influence. It was there without Adams and with Perk too.

And pass blame for it on whoever but.a coach's job is to.implement that system. OKC has never had that coach. Westbrook is absolutely a flawed player, but so are all of them. The job of a coach is to.maximize the talents and minimize flaws. That's where Donovan failed now multiple times over. And in the end it in some ways cost OKC the series and probably PG.

[Pillendreher]

When your Top 4 in USG% is 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th on the team in eFG%, you're bound to struggle offensively. And of course it's not as easy as "Well, just make Andre Roberson 4th in usage", but I think we did have a problem with Russ' efficiency being complete ass for ~ 30 games (55 TS% to end the season over ~ 50 games) and Melo being way more washed up than imagined. Meanwhile our good 3pt shooters sometimes went games without getting quality shot attempts.

yeah, i know. you'll pull whatever segment of the year you want to make westbrook look okay.

I always like it when you get snarky. It's cute.

want to try the playoffs?

Sure. He was very bad.

he's supposed to have healed by now right?

Healed? What are you talking about? Trying to put words in my mouth?

of course you don't.

Oh my.

[PHANTOMPHOENIX]

He still has his NTC.

If the Thunder put him on the Bench I am sure he would ok his way out. Its just a matter of what we would have to take back.

Are we sure? I could see him taking the 28 mil to sit on the bench for a year.

The most sensible scenario is to deal him to a tanking team for some overpaid talent that is compatible with WB and let his new team buy him out. I could see Melo waiving his NTC to make this happen since he would then get the chance to join any team of his liking afterwards. If he stays in OKC, he is ending on the bench.

[Kizz Fastfists]

If he stays in OKC, he is ending on the bench.

Any contender will have him coming off the bench. His agent will make sure he knows that opting gets him a vet minimum contract and he leaves over $25M on the table. He'll think he can force a trade for the THIRD time in his career. He'll be a destructive force to any team he goes to. If he opts out the team that signs him for the vet minimum will cut him early in the season for being destructive to the locker room when they have him coming off the bench.

[slick_watts]

^^^
What he said. And Westbrook absolutely has a massive positive offensive influence. It was there without Adams and with Perk too.

And pass blame for it on whoever but.a coach's job is to.implement that system. OKC has never had that coach. Westbrook is absolutely a flawed player, but so are all of them. The job of a coach is to.maximize the talents and minimize flaws. That's where Donovan failed now multiple times over. And in the end it in some ways cost OKC the series and probably PG.

westbrook is a flawed player making $200mm+ over the next five seasons until he is age 34. if westbrook was 26 this wouldn't even be a problem. westbrook is stuck in his ways.

you can say he has a 'massive positive offensive influence' all you want. the reality is that over the course of this season and the playoffs, the thunder were good at one thing with him on the court and it's a thing he might only be tangentially responsible for. i don't think there's much evidence outside of the RPM/BPM stathead hegemony that suggests westbrook has a much greater impact offensively at the moment than kemba or lillard. and even RPM is becoming hazy on that one.

zach lowe specifically compares westbrook to harden and lebron in his article. if you replaced westbrook with harden or lebron or curry on this team you can bet that team efg% would soar and probably ft/fga as well. westbrook isn't that caliber, but he's paid and revered as if he is.

and i'm 100% over passing the buck on donovan or the teammates or whoever else. westbrook needs to take ownership himself. all we heard this year is 'wait for the playoffs', and guess what, he was awful.

[bondom34]

^^^
What he said. And Westbrook absolutely has a massive positive offensive influence. It was there without Adams and with Perk too.

And pass blame for it on whoever but.a coach's job is to.implement that system. OKC has never had that coach. Westbrook is absolutely a flawed player, but so are all of them. The job of a coach is to.maximize the talents and minimize flaws. That's where Donovan failed now multiple times over. And in the end it in some ways cost OKC the series and probably PG.

westbrook is a flawed player making $200mm+ over the next five seasons until he is age 34. if westbrook was 26 this wouldn't even be a problem. westbrook is stuck in his ways.

you can say he has a 'massive positive offensive influence' all you want. the reality is that over the course of this season and the playoffs, the thunder were good at one thing with him on the court and it's a thing he might only be tangentially responsible for. i don't think there's much evidence outside of the RPM/BPM stathead hegemony that suggests westbrook has a much greater impact offensively at the moment than kemba or lillard. and even RPM is becoming hazy on that one.

zach lowe specifically compares westbrook to harden and lebron in his article. if you replaced westbrook with harden or lebron or curry on this team you can bet that team efg% would soar and probably ft/fga as well. westbrook isn't that caliber, but he's paid and revered as if he is.

and i'm 100% over passing the buck on donovan or the teammates or whoever else. westbrook needs to take ownership himself. all we heard this year is 'wait for the playoffs', and guess what, he was awful.

You can pick at Harden and Lebron offensively as well and here you're actually tangentially dismissing Westbrook while ignoring that. He is that caliber offensively and you're bumpeing that credit to Adams for some reason. Yes. He can rebound. Son can every big on the NBA. He had a pretty clear down year so I wouldn't even argue that here.

And Donovan still has responsibility. What's odd is when talking with you you specifically noted Donovan would be the reason okc lost. And he was a large part of it. Now its bumped to Westbrook when you want it to be. I get you don't like him. Yoive admitted as much. But its gotten to the point where you're doing a lot of what you're railing on pille for here. Lowes article also notes this has been a longstanding issue and I agree. Bit its one a good coach overcomes. Brooks hasn't on 2 teams not has Donovan. Donovan also has marginalized roster talent with rotation decisions.

As for.the wait for the playoffs stuff you know I didn't buy that either.

[slick_watts]

You can pick at Harden and Lebron offensively as well and here you're actually tangentially dismissing Westbrook while ignoring that. He is that caliber offensively and you're bumpeing that credit to Adams for some reason. Yes. He can rebound. Son can every big on the NBA. He had a pretty clear down year so I wouldn't even argue that here.

okc orb% with westbrook in the game is way, way, way beyond any other team. and i don't think anyone would argue the point that it's mostly adams, the guy who led the league in orb% (and whose orb% and team orb% was the same whether or not westbrook was in). we're at the point where we are endowing westbrook with super powers if we're going to say our 30% orb is because of him, and that's the only thing we do particularly well with him in the game. those other elite wings like harden and lebron? not true for them.

And Donovan still has responsibility.

sure. i haven't said otherwise.

What's odd is when talking with you you specifically noted Donovan would be the reason okc lost. And he was a large part of it. Now its bumped to Westbrook when you want it to be.

when i want it to be? i don't think anyone would have or could have predicted that westbrook would be outplayed games 1-4 by ricky rubio. was that really donovan's fault? what i said on mpn is that westbrook is the best player in the series and if he played like 2016-17 then we could win. and if he didn't, then we're screwed. he played even worse than that.

But its gotten to the point where you're doing a lot of what you're railing on pille for here.

i'm not denying there are schematic issues with the thunder. i don't think those schematic issues should impede a player as good as westbrook is purported to be. i rail on pille for presenting half-truths. i think i'm telling the full story here. the half-truth is that the thunder have a good offense with westbrook in the game. the full-truth is that the thunder have a good offense with westbrook in the game because they are a historic orb team and average or below average at everything else. what am i missing?

[bondom34]

You can pick at Harden and Lebron offensively as well and here you're actually tangentially dismissing Westbrook while ignoring that. He is that caliber offensively and you're bumpeing that credit to Adams for some reason. Yes. He can rebound. Son can every big on the NBA. He had a pretty clear down year so I wouldn't even argue that here.

okc orb% with westbrook in the game is way, way, way beyond any other team. and i don't think anyone would argue the point that it's mostly adams, the guy who led the league in orb% (and whose orb% and team orb% was the same whether or not westbrook was in). we're at the point where we are endowing westbrook with super powers if we're going to say our 30% orb is because of him, and that's the only thing we do particularly well with him in the game. those other elite wings like harden and lebron? not true for them.

And Donovan still has responsibility.

sure. i haven't said otherwise.

What's odd is when talking with you you specifically noted Donovan would be the reason okc lost. And he was a large part of it. Now its bumped to Westbrook when you want it to be.

when i want it to be? i don't think anyone would have or could have predicted that westbrook would be outplayed games 1-4 by ricky rubio. was that really donovan's fault? what i said on mpn is that westbrook is the best player in the series and if he played like 2016-17 then we could win. and if he didn't, then we're screwed. he played even worse than that.

But its gotten to the point where you're doing a lot of what you're railing on pille for here.

i'm not denying there are schematic issues with the thunder. i don't think those schematic issues should impede a player as good as westbrook is purported to be. i rail on pille for presenting half-truths. i think i'm telling the full story here. the half-truth is that the thunder have a good offense with westbrook in the game. the full-truth is that the thunder have a good offense with westbrook in the game because they are a historic orb team and average or below average at everything else. what am i missing?

Westbrook played over 1300 possessions of non garbage time without Adams. The o rtg dropped 1 point per 100 despite the rebounding. The turnovers made up for it, so yes I feel confident in saying your claim that the offense is thos good because of Adams is false.

We seem to agree on Donovan just to differing levels.

And yes him being.that poor in the 1st round was a large reason why they lost. However a better coach helps negate that and I'm not throwing out 7 to 10 years of elite basketball over a handful of games.

Also to.the last part, no you're actually doing a lot of.what you're blaming pille for. You present and snip data how you want it to be perceived. Happens to the best of us.

[slick_watts]

Westbrook played over 1300 possessions of non garbage time without Adams. The o rtg dropped 1 point per 100 despite the rebounding.

i mean.. that's a significant drop. that would put those lineups below the hornets with kemba, for example. i'm showing a 2pp100 drop-off, though.

The turnovers made up for it, so yes I feel confident in saying your claim that the offense is thos good because of Adams is false.

i mean.. it is because of offensive rebounding. take slices as much as you want they are league average or worse on every factor but that one with westbrook in the game. westbrook played 600 minutes without adams and the rebounding fell but thankfully tov did too so the damage was minimal. team efg was unaffected.

why would tov% drop so much in those lineups?

And yes him being.that poor in the 1st round was a large reason why they lost. However a better coach helps negate that and I'm not throwing out 7 to 10 years of elite basketball over a handful of games.

westbrook is not going to get better from this point on. he's going to be 30. that's the context i began this discussion in and also the context in which lowe was presenting his discussion in. 27-28 year old westbrook is probably never coming back.

we'd disagree on westbrook's relative impact in years past, anyways.

Also to.the last part, no you're actually doing a lot of.what you're blaming pille for. You present and snip data how you want it to be perceived. Happens to the best of us.

what did i snip?

[bondom34]

Westbrook played over 1300 possessions of non garbage time without Adams. The o rtg dropped 1 point per 100 despite the rebounding.

i mean.. that's a significant drop. that would put those lineups below the hornets with kemba, for example. i'm showing a 2pp100 drop-off, though.

The turnovers made up for it, so yes I feel confident in saying your claim that the offense is thos good because of Adams is false.

i mean.. it is because of offensive rebounding. take slices as much as you want they are league average or worse on every factor but that one with westbrook in the game. westbrook played 600 minutes without adams and the rebounding fell but thankfully tov did too so the damage was minimal. team efg was unaffected.

why would tov% drop so much in those lineups?

And yes him being.that poor in the 1st round was a large reason why they lost. However a better coach helps negate that and I'm not throwing out 7 to 10 years of elite basketball over a handful of games.

westbrook is not going to get better from this point on. he's going to be 30. that's the context i began this discussion in and also the context in which lowe was presenting his discussion in. 27-28 year old westbrook is probably never coming back.

we'd disagree on westbrook's relative impact in years past, anyways.

Also to.the last part, no you're actually doing a lot of.what you're blaming pille for. You present and snip data how you want it to be perceived. Happens to the best of us.

what did i snip?

Snipping rebounding as the reason the offense is good for one as well as flipping around on who you feel like blaming day to day. Youbdont like him which is fine utb distorting arguments doesn't help
I can take screenshots if the numbers when I'm home.

And I don't think he's going to play this poorly again next year. I do think something was up health wise and don't see that again. You don't see an mvp level player just fall off like that.

[getrichordie]

It feels like a lot of fans on here expect Donovan to be Pop/Stevens or something and there is a huge difference of circumstance there.


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[slick_watts]

Snipping rebounding as the reason the offense is good for one as well as flipping around on who you feel like blaming day to day. Youbdont like him which is fine utb distorting arguments doesn't help
I can take screenshots if the numbers when I'm home.

lol i'm not snipping rebounding, i looked at all the four factors offensively when he's in. rebounding just happened to be the only thing the team was good at.

And I don't think he's going to play this poorly again next year. I do think something was up health wise and don't see that again. You don't see an mvp level player just fall off like that.

i mean.. yes you do. they all do. all players succumb to age related decline. look at any nba aging curve you want, decline typically begins around westbrook's current age, especially for guards. westbrook is encumbered in this process by being particularly reliant on his athletic gifts.

that's why extending him to 200mm+ was so questionable in the first place.

[bondom34]

Snipping rebounding as the reason the offense is good for one as well as flipping around on who you feel like blaming day to day. Youbdont like him which is fine utb distorting arguments doesn't help
I can take screenshots if the numbers when I'm home.

lol i'm not snipping rebounding, i looked at all the four factors offensively when he's in. rebounding just happened to be the only thing the team was good at.

And I don't think he's going to play this poorly again next year. I do think something was up health wise and don't see that again. You don't see an mvp level player just fall off like that.

i mean.. yes you do. they all do. all players succumb to age related decline. look at any nba aging curve you want, decline typically begins around westbrook's current age, especially for guards. westbrook is encumbered in this process by being particularly reliant on his athletic gifts.

that's why extending him to 200mm+ was so questionable in the first place.

Not a single team doesn't extend that offer, and the fall isn't what is odd. It's the severity.

[bondom34]

Snipping rebounding as the reason the offense is good for one as well as flipping around on who you feel like blaming day to day. Youbdont like him which is fine utb distorting arguments doesn't help
I can take screenshots if the numbers when I'm home.

lol i'm not snipping rebounding, i looked at all the four factors offensively when he's in. rebounding just happened to be the only thing the team was good at.

And I don't think he's going to play this poorly again next year. I do think something was up health wise and don't see that again. You don't see an mvp level player just fall off like that.

i mean.. yes you do. they all do. all players succumb to age related decline. look at any nba aging curve you want, decline typically begins around westbrook's current age, especially for guards. westbrook is encumbered in this process by being particularly reliant on his athletic gifts.

that's why extending him to 200mm+ was so questionable in the first place.

Not a single team doesn't extend that offer, and the fall isn't what is odd. It's the severity.

And as promised:

Westbrook on:


Adams/Westbrook:

No Adams/Westbrook: