2018 NBA Draft Thread

[Gam]

I hate ESPN so much for killing DX. Really going to ruin draft season for me.

[Rockmaninoff]

I hate ESPN so much for killing DX. Really going to ruin draft season for me.

You might like this:

https://94feetreport.com/the-2018-nba-draft-guide-version-1-1-f903aa13e90

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

i still see mitchell robinson as the bucks pick...if he's on the board

[ReasonablySober]

I hate ESPN so much for killing DX. Really going to ruin draft season for me.

What do you mean?

[Ron Swanson]

Not really seeing it with Lonnie Walker. Think he could eventually be a nice scoring combo guard off the bench, but reminds me too much of Jordan Crawford.

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

Not really seeing it with Lonnie Walker. Think he could eventually be a nice scoring combo guard off the bench, but reminds me too much of Jordan Crawford.

well the bucks are drafting at 17......it's either take the best known entity that's there, or take swings at guys like DJ WIlson and Rashad Vaughn

the way the last few drafts have gone, i think might be happiest with them taking a known commodity and less of a swing for the fence

not saying that Lonnie Walker is either

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

might be easier to sell me on a player like Jalen Brunson....or Shake Milton....or Jacob Evans...or Bates-Diop rather than taking a swing on Gary Trent Jr. or Lonnie Walker

[LuessiT]

Not really seeing it with Lonnie Walker. Think he could eventually be a nice scoring combo guard off the bench, but reminds me too much of Jordan Crawford.

well the bucks are drafting at 17......it's either take the best known entity that's there, or take swings at guys like DJ WIlson and Rashad Vaughn

the way the last few drafts have gone, i think might be happiest with them taking a known commodity and less of a swing for the fence

not saying that Lonnie Walker is either

This years draft is pretty good at taking swings imo. Melton (who is in the top 10 on my board), Afternee Simmons (straight out of HS) and Mitchell Robinson all sat out the year for various reasons. Their skill levels are hard to judge.
Lonnie Walker struggled a lot with injury early on and improved tremendously when Brown went down. Is that for real or just a fluke?
Zhaire Smith shot 45% from 3 on just 1 3PA per game. How much of a shooter is he really?

Every draft has the latter, but the first are a bit unique.

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

Not really seeing it with Lonnie Walker. Think he could eventually be a nice scoring combo guard off the bench, but reminds me too much of Jordan Crawford.

well the bucks are drafting at 17......it's either take the best known entity that's there, or take swings at guys like DJ WIlson and Rashad Vaughn

the way the last few drafts have gone, i think might be happiest with them taking a known commodity and less of a swing for the fence

not saying that Lonnie Walker is either

This years draft is pretty good at taking swings imo. Melton (who is in the top 10 on my board), Afternee Simmons (straight out of HS) and Mitchell Robinson all sat out the year for various reasons. Their skill levels are hard to judge.
Lonnie Walker struggled a lot with injury early on and improved tremendously when Brown went down. Is that for real or just a fluke?
Zhaire Smith shot 45% from 3 on just 1 3PA per game. How much of a shooter is he really?

Every draft has the latter, but the first are a bit unique.

i agree that it is

but as a fan, i'm so tired of the last few first round picks and would almost rather have a lesser contributor than a swing and miss

last thing this franchise needs is another rashad vaughn, dj wilson, and non-playoff thon maker

[BucksStatsGuy]

FWIW, my draft model that I just got up and running (now that I had some time to collect data again....):

Tier 1 (these guys separate themselves by a decent amount)
Wendell Carter, Jr.
Deandre Ayton

Tier 2: (All of these guys in the same general range)
Mohamed Bamba
Zhaire Smith
Rob Williams
Bagley III
Jaren Jackson
Mikal Bridges

Not liking Porter and Trae Young at all. It's liking Jarred Vanderbilt if he decides to come out as well. Oh, and Ethan Happ, obviously

[tski1972]

FWIW, my draft model that I just got up and running (now that I had some time to collect data again....):

Tier 1 (these guys separate themselves by a decent amount)
Wendell Carter, Jr.
Deandre Ayton

Tier 2: (All of these guys in the same general range)
Mohamed Bamba
Zhaire Smith
Rob Williams
Bagley III
Jaren Jackson
Mikal Bridges

Not liking Porter and Trae Young at all. It's liking Jarred Vanderbilt if he decides to come out as well. Oh, and Ethan Happ, obviously

I assume this is Michael, what about Jontay?

[Licensed to Il]

FWIW, my draft model that I just got up and running (now that I had some time to collect data again....):

Tier 1 (these guys separate themselves by a decent amount)
Wendell Carter, Jr.
Deandre Ayton

Tier 2: (All of these guys in the same general range)
Mohamed Bamba
Zhaire Smith
Rob Williams
Bagley III
Jaren Jackson
Mikal Bridges

Not liking Porter and Trae Young at all. It's liking Jarred Vanderbilt if he decides to come out as well. Oh, and Ethan Happ, obviously

Please delete any program or model that suggests Ethan Happ will be a good NBA player.

[Ron Swanson]

Again though, the problem is that DJ Wilson and Rashad Vaughn weren't really "swings" at a high upside guy. Hollis-Jefferson in '15 and Anunoby this last year would have fit that bill much better.

[Jimmmycrackcorn]

Again though, the problem is that DJ Wilson and Rashad Vaughn weren't really "swings" at a high upside guy. Hollis-Jefferson in '15 and Anunoby this last year would have fit that bill much better.

if they weren't swings...what were they?

[BucksFanSD]

Mitchell Robinson story by Jonathon Givony, ESPN. Posted March 2nd, 2018.

Will Mitchell Robinson's mystery man status help his draft stock?

The NCAA tournament tips off this month, but Mitchell Robinson will be sitting it out. Instead, he'll be biding his time in suburban Dallas, walking back and forth from a rented condo to a nearby fitness club, counting off the days until Adam Silver calls his name on NBA draft night in June.

A series of bad decisions led Robinson here, without a team and unable to be scouted until the NBA releases its early entry list for the draft at the end of April. He isn't allowed to be evaluated in nonsanctioned practice or game settings until then. That doesn't mean NBA teams have forgotten about him, but he's very much off the radar and an afterthought at this point, which perhaps might not be the worst thing for him.

After the drama of twice joining and abandoning Western Kentucky, the college Robinson committed to but ultimately never played a game for, NBA scouts openly question the poor advice he received at the time and wonder about the difficulties he encountered while navigating the college recruiting world. Will these same influences continue to cause issues for him at the NBA level as well?

That's how we got here, watching Robinson work out with his high school teammate in late February, being trained by former NBA player and assistant coach Morlon Wiley. A spin class is being conducted next door, and overhead retirees walk briskly on a track. It's not the type of evaluation setting scouts prefer before making a multimillion dollar decision in June, but it's not all that unfavorable for Robinson, who could certainly benefit from his "mystery man" status. He turned down EuroLeague offers from the likes of Zalgiris in Lithuania and Olympiacos in Greece for that precise reason -- not wanting to lock himself into a season extending well into June and the prospect of a multiyear deal featuring an NBA buyout.

Officially measured by USA Basketball last summer at 7-feet barefoot with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and 9-foot-3 standing reach -- plus possessing freakish athletic ability for someone his size -- Robinson is one of just a handful of human beings on the planet who share such coveted physical traits. While he hasn't put on any weight since last summer (he told us he weighs 229 pounds now, down from the 233 he weighed then), his frame is well-proportioned and should be able to handle as much bulk as needed. He has real basketball talent, as well, with a soft touch around the rim and from the perimeter, along with a skill set that is raw but promising and could be harnessed into a real weapon in time.

Robinson's Physical Comps
PLAYER HT (W/SHOES) WT WINGSPAN STANDING REACH AGE/SOURCE
Mitchell Robinson 85.00 233 88.00 111.0 19.2 (2017 USA Basketball)
Jakob Poeltl 85.00 239 86.75 111.5 20.6 (2016 NBA draft combine)
Willie Cauley-Stein 84.50 242 87.00 111.0 21.7 (2015 NBA draft combine)
Anthony Randolph 84.00 230 87.00 110.0 26.0 (2015 USA Pan Am team)
Myles Turner 83.50 239 88.00 112.0 19.1 (2015 NBA draft combine)
Cole Aldrich 83.25 236 88.75 111.5 21.7 (2010 NBA draft combine)
Marcin Gortat 84.00 225 87.50 110.0 21.4 (2005 NBA pre-draft camp)
LaMarcus Aldridge 83.25 234 88.75 110.0 20.9 (2006 NBA pre-draft camp)
Tyson Chandler 84.50 224 87.00 110.0 18.7 (2001 NBA pre-draft camp)
Source: DraftExpress historical database

We watched him knock down quite a few jump shots over the course of a 90-minute workout this week, both with his feet set and off the dribble -- sometimes from well beyond the 3-point line, which is not something he has ever been able to demonstrate in 5-on-5 games. In many ways, Robinson is a blank canvas waiting for professional strength and conditioning and skill-development coaches -- and simply forced to bide his time until then.

With his potential as a rim-running, pick-and-roll-setting and lob-catching rim protector/offensive rebounder, Robinson is exactly what NBA teams are actively scouring the globe for at the center position, both physically and from a skill set perspective. He covers ground exceptionally, plays quick off his feet and has excellent hands. And he has proved to be one of the most devastating shot-blockers and offensive rebounders in our databases' history while competing on the AAU level in the Nike EYBL, which has a rich background of producing top-shelf NBA draft picks.

Best PER In Nike EYBL History
PLAYER TEAM/YEAR PER
Mitchell Robinson 2016 Pro Skills 40.5
Michael Porter 2016 MoKan Elite 37.9
Deandre Ayton 2016 California Supreme 32.7
Trae Young 2016 MoKan Elite 32.7
Georges Niang 2011 BABC 32.4
Jayson Tatum 2015 Saint Louis Eagles 32.3
Brice Johnson 2011 CP3 All-Stars 32.3
Andrew Wiggins 2012 CIA Bounce 32.1
Collin Sexton 2016 Southern Stampede 31.6
Wendell Carter 2016 CP3 All-Stars 31.2

NBA teams will have to weigh the uncertainty of not having watched him play competitive basketball in any real setting (they aren't allowed to scout high school or AAU games) with the potential he is certain to demonstrate over the course of the pre-draft process. That's all while coming to terms with the diminishing market for big men and trying to gain a better understanding of Robinson's likelihood to reach his full potential. Grainy footage from online high school video platform Krossover is the best they can hope for, with Robinson's strong performances against Deandre Ayton (23 points, nine rebounds, four blocks) and Marvin Bagley (19 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks in 24 minutes) certain to be heavily scrutinized in particular.

There's very little hard data here for NBA front offices, no formula or historical precedent to help guide their decision-making process and quite a bit of uncertainty still about how Robinson will perform in private workouts, interviews and other fact-finding settings leading up to June. Despite Robinson's lottery-level talent, teams drafting in the first round will still consider the red flags from his wavering at Western Kentucky and more background intel that could have led to his college departure. A lot will come down to their appetite for risk, which admittedly diminishes the further outside of the lottery you get, especially in a draft that is being harshly criticized for the lack of depth it boasts outside the top-10 talent. How much of a project is Robinson, and just how far off is he from being able to help a team? Will he be a willing partner in this endeavor, someone a team can trust to be a reliable understudy?

The people around Robinson say he has simply made mistakes that are as much a product of his environment growing up and the chaotic world of grass-roots basketball as his own character. There is talk of him working out against Jermaine O'Neal in the upcoming months leading up to the draft, as much for the off-court mentorship O'Neal might provide as the on-court benefits of learning from a similarly sized big man who made six All-Star Games and spent 18 years in the NBA.

Robinson's workout reminded us somewhat of a similar one we attended in 2015 with Willie Cauley-Stein, featuring a huge number of eye-popping dunks, off-the-dribble 3-pointers and impressive feats of athleticism and talent. Robinson has been pacing himself to a degree, not wanting to peak until the pre-draft process fully tips off in May, all while hoping to make as big of a splash as possible.

When asked what he can do to address the concerns NBA teams might have and make them comfortable regarding his capacity for reaching his full potential, Robinson said, "I'm just gonna have to kill the workouts." This was a good dry run for us to take in before the lights really come on in a few months, and he will likely be better prepared by then.

[emunney]

Not really seeing it with Lonnie Walker. Think he could eventually be a nice scoring combo guard off the bench, but reminds me too much of Jordan Crawford.

well the bucks are drafting at 17......it's either take the best known entity that's there, or take swings at guys like DJ WIlson and Rashad Vaughn

the way the last few drafts have gone, i think might be happiest with them taking a known commodity and less of a swing for the fence

not saying that Lonnie Walker is either

This years draft is pretty good at taking swings imo. Melton (who is in the top 10 on my board), Afternee Simmons (straight out of HS) and Mitchell Robinson all sat out the year for various reasons. Their skill levels are hard to judge.
Lonnie Walker struggled a lot with injury early on and improved tremendously when Brown went down. Is that for real or just a fluke?
Zhaire Smith shot 45% from 3 on just 1 3PA per game. How much of a shooter is he really?

Every draft has the latter, but the first are a bit unique.

Yep, have been thinking a lot about all the tough scouting assignments this year. Add in Michael Porter.

Check out Trae Young's half season splits:

1st 16 games -

Texas 14-2

last 16 games -


Texas 4-12 including 1st round exits in the conference and NCAA tournaments

I'm legitimately starting to wonder if he'll be sitting there at 17.

[tski1972]

Again though, the problem is that DJ Wilson and Rashad Vaughn weren't really "swings" at a high upside guy. Hollis-Jefferson in '15 and Anunoby this last year would have fit that bill much better.

if they weren't swings...what were they?

poorly evaluated?

[BucksStatsGuy]

FWIW, my draft model that I just got up and running (now that I had some time to collect data again....):

Tier 1 (these guys separate themselves by a decent amount)
Wendell Carter, Jr.
Deandre Ayton

Tier 2: (All of these guys in the same general range)
Mohamed Bamba
Zhaire Smith
Rob Williams
Bagley III
Jaren Jackson
Mikal Bridges

Not liking Porter and Trae Young at all. It's liking Jarred Vanderbilt if he decides to come out as well. Oh, and Ethan Happ, obviously

Please delete any program or model that suggests Ethan Happ will be a good NBA player.

Any model that has some balance between scouting and stats will have Ethan Happ showing up. His stats are pretty much untouchable. If you lean towards scouting stats too much (chad Ford rankings, etc), you basically get the GM evaluations, which have been shown to be on average suboptimal and you lose some of the fringe guys who end up being really good. If you lean towards pure stats too much, you get weird results like Happ. ~29 PER, big school, ridiculous BPM, ridiculous STL%, mindblowing AST% for a Center, so he's gonna show up well in a draft model no matter what. I'd rather be on the stats side of the spectrum, because it's much easier to discount someone, then it is to not identify someone at all and potentially lose out on him because you never even watch him. I don't think Happ will be as good as the model suggests. But I'd rather him be on the list and move on than not have him on there at all. My "obviously" was more in reference to me being a Badger fan and UW Alum

[LuessiT]

well the bucks are drafting at 17......it's either take the best known entity that's there, or take swings at guys like DJ WIlson and Rashad Vaughn

the way the last few drafts have gone, i think might be happiest with them taking a known commodity and less of a swing for the fence

not saying that Lonnie Walker is either

This years draft is pretty good at taking swings imo. Melton (who is in the top 10 on my board), Afternee Simmons (straight out of HS) and Mitchell Robinson all sat out the year for various reasons. Their skill levels are hard to judge.
Lonnie Walker struggled a lot with injury early on and improved tremendously when Brown went down. Is that for real or just a fluke?
Zhaire Smith shot 45% from 3 on just 1 3PA per game. How much of a shooter is he really?

Every draft has the latter, but the first are a bit unique.

Yep, have been thinking a lot about all the tough scouting assignments this year. Add in Michael Porter.

Check out Trae Young's half season splits:

1st 16 games -

Texas 14-2

last 16 games -


Texas 4-12 including 1st round exits in the conference and NCAA tournaments

I'm legitimately starting to wonder if he'll be sitting there at 17.

The combine is certainly not going to help. Does he get his measurements taken? Athletic testing? Those probably won't look great. I doubt he goes into a complete tailspin and remains at 17, but past 10? Definately possible.

[Ron Swanson]

Again though, the problem is that DJ Wilson and Rashad Vaughn weren't really "swings" at a high upside guy. Hollis-Jefferson in '15 and Anunoby this last year would have fit that bill much better.

if they weren't swings...what were they?

poorly evaluated?

This. Said it in an earlier draft thread but really the only thing that gave the illusion of upside with Vaughn was that he was 18 when he was drafted. Drafted on the surface because "we needed shooting" and I suspect the evaluations went no further than that. Wilson pick speaks for itself. 21-year old red-shirt junior who never showed any consistent or tangible NBA skill set, while we passed up younger, more athletic, and higher upside guys like Allen, Giles, Anunoby, John Collins, etc.