Vlad Jr. at 3B, Donaldson at SS?

[augustine]

Would it be possible for Vlad Jr. to play 3B while Donaldson plays SS?

Atkins says he will not bring Vlad up to DH (as that stunts his growth), so the only option for Vlad to come up this year is for him to play 3B. But, Donaldson, when healthy, plays 3B. So, we cannot have Vlad and Donaldson together now.

Solution: our biggest hole right now is SS, and Donaldson played there a bit last year. So, if he could move over, that gives room for Vlad.

Is this viable? I think Donaldson would agree. It would help Donaldson as a FA, if he can play some SS, so that is good. And, he agreed to do it last year. Might management disagree? They may cite injury issues. But, the injury was to his arm, which doesn't affect range. In fact, a shorter throw from SS may be better. They may cite range issues, and turning double plays. I just can't remember if Donaldson played well at SS last year.

[Schad]

Donaldson played barely any SS last year. Including the minor leagues, he has only played 21 innings there in his career. It's way too much to ask for him to move over at an age where most shortstops are moving to less-demanding positions, and while he has very good range for a 3B, it'd be well below par for a shortstop.

[emptytheclip]

For short term he could prob play second base if you really want to bring Vlad up. You probably don’t want the defensive stress on Donaldson playing a shortstop at his age. He doesn’t want to do this either on a contract year, when he’s a hamstring pull away from losing millions on his payday.

You also need to somehow keep Solarte’s bat in the lineup.. but defensively this won’t be looking too good with all our groundball pitchers having Solarte @ short, Donaldson at 2B and Vlad @ 3B.

The offense has actually been very good in April, their starting pitching needs to step up.
So going through all this trouble to bring Vlad up is a lateral move at best.

Next year makes a lot more sense.

If Donaldson walks, we save $23mill and get a compensation pick. Vlad gets all his playing time, while we use that money to get a legit starter.

A lot of our youth may also be ready by then including Bichette, Borucki, Pannone, Biggio, Hernandez, Alford, Gurriel Jr., maybe even Pearson depending how well he does this year.

[Schad]

Next year makes a lot more sense.

Definitely. As good as Vlad is at his age, he isn't likely to be a massive positive, and shoehorning him into the lineup this year would mean that he becomes a free agent at 25. If we wait 'til late April, 2019, he'll still likely be the youngest player in the league, and one of the youngest players to debut in the past 20 years.

[vaff87]

Next year makes a lot more sense.

Definitely. As good as Vlad is at his age, he isn't likely to be a massive positive, and shoehorning him into the lineup this year would mean that he becomes a free agent at 25. If we wait 'til late April, 2019, he'll still likely be the youngest player in the league, and one of the youngest players to debut in the past 20 years.

Apparently if he debuts right now, he’d be the youngest player to debut since A-Rod.

[Schad]

Apparently if he debuts right now, he’d be the youngest player to debut since A-Rod.

Yeah, I mean, his birthday is mid-March...he isn't just 19, he's a young 19.

[emptytheclip]

It’s possible to eat Morales money, and let Vlad & Donald take turns at 3B and DH if they’re set on bringing him up. But really it’s not realistic.

[North_of_Border]

Best thing is to let Vlad develop. Let Donaldson carry the team for now. If they are in the playoff picture, let Donaldson walk at season end or trade him if they fall out. No need to rush a star prospect. Why risk it when you have a competent guy at his position already.

Bigger question is, when Vlad is approaching FA time, will the Jays afford to pay him Monster money, or will they trade him for prospects like a small market team.


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[sule]

Maybe move Donaldson to 1B, give Bichette SS, Gurriel 2B, and Vlad Jr. 3B, with Tulo handling DH on most days until he's off the books. Alford/Hernandez/+ in the OF. And McGuire at C, hopefully bringing him up to play with Martin before his contract is up.

[emptytheclip]

Smoak is one of our best hitters so he would DH/1B in that scenario. Tulo’s bat has been bad, to put it nicely. His bat won’t play at DH, there are way better hitters on the club that should take those plate appearances.

If he can’t recover and be at least an adequate SS defensively, his bat really doesn’t play anywhere else. The Rockies Tulo just never showed up in a Blue Jays uniform. If he couldn’t do it for 2 seasons, you expect him to do it now after getting surgery on both feet?

They will give him the opportunity to play because of how much money is left on the contract. But cross your fingers he figured it all out during rehab.

Donaldson can play 1B and DH, and probably will end up there eventually if you sign him up for 4 more years.

I’m not sure Lourdes is better than Solarte. He could be, it’s too early to tell. But Solarte has been playing out of his mind so far.
I’m not sure Bo will stick at SS. He may end up 2B, 1B or even 3B depending if Vlad would stay third.
It’s too early to tell.
If their bats continue to rake though, they’ll find playing time somewhere

[manjusaka]

wishful project lineup for 2020

C-Jansen
1B-Biggio
2B-Bichette
3B-Guerrero
SS-Smith
LF-Alford
CF-Pillar
RF-Hernandez

[vaff87]

wishful project lineup for 2020

C-Jansen
1B-Biggio
2B-Bichette
3B-Guerrero
SS-Smith
LF-Alford
CF-Pillar
RF-Hernandez

Why do you have Pillar still around, of all people?

[manjusaka]

wishful project lineup for 2020

C-Jansen
1B-Biggio
2B-Bichette
3B-Guerrero
SS-Smith
LF-Alford
CF-Pillar
RF-Hernandez

Why do you have Pillar still around, of all people?

He can be replaced with Pompey, or Grichuk, we don't have much talents in outfields. Chavez Young is too young.

edited, sorry I forgot Palacio.

[dagger]

It’s possible to eat Morales money, and let Vlad & Donald take turns at 3B and DH if they’re set on bringing him up. But really it’s not realistic.

There are so many good reasons not to rush Guerrero. From a team-building standpoint, it would bring him to the majors with a couple of other peers, and let them go through growing pains together. Putting him on this year's team, then following that up with a lost season in 2019 while the team makes room for youth, suggests an upturn would begin in his third control year. What a waste! We'll become contenders again as he moves into his second or third arb years, instead of returning to contention while he is at worst, reaching arb 1. The difference in money could be the equivalent of a quality free agent pitcher, or the ability to absorb a big contract for a very useful veteran in a trade.

Baseball isn't basketball. He can't do what young LeBron did for the Cavs. Our pitching staff needs rebuilding and we have a bunch of other young players who need time to establish themselves in the majors before we can consider them major contributors. In fact, we really need a year to make room for them so they can play every day.

Vlad should not DH until he is over 30. He needs reps every day. He shouldn't cause Donaldson to move to DH, which is a suboptimal use of his talent. Donaldson shouldn't be moved to second base, not if we want either Travis to return or Gurriel to esbslish himself as an everyday option going forward.

Right now, the Jays aren't going to make the playoffs. They are falling further and further behind in the AL East, and must keep pace with fast least one of three better teams in the AL West to make second wildcard. Promoting Guerrero now would be like a placebo for disappointed fans and Rogers beancounters. You might think you are happier, but it's really to no avail. Over the winter, the team should clear out all the deadwood blocking young players, bring in Jansen, Alford, Reid Foley, maybe more, or promote a placeholder or two like Dwight Smith, and roll with these guys. The Braves were smart - they could have promoted Acuna to the bigs in spring training - he was ready, too, and he's going to be a superstar, but Alex took the long view, and good on Shapiro and Atkins if they do, too. The goal is real contention for a WS title, not the lame consolation prize of a second WC that seems like a long shot in any case.

And beware of people in the media who want a promotion for Vlad now. They have to go to the ballpark every day and write about the same mediocre team with the same mediocre storylines. It's only human for them to want a new, shiny toy. You can't expect them to support the long view.

[Skin Blues]

Best thing is to let Vlad develop.

I think a lot of the "let him develop" talk around big prospects is fueled by teams wanting to control service time. It's reinforced by confirmation bias when prospects who are called up early fail (though usually it's a cup of coffee in September), and when prospects who spend a full-season at AA/AAA succeed (major survivor bias, here). Sure it's important sometimes, because you don't want a guy to develop bad habits just to be able to tread water, so putting a guy who hasn't been that good at A+ or AA is probably a bad idea for their development. And most young prospects simply aren't good enough to justify being on a major league roster yet. But mostly, teams want the development to happen in the minor leagues not because it's better quality of development, but because it saves a ton of money in the future when a player is in his prime. We want Vlad's age 26 season rather than his age 19 season. Even though he's ready to contribute, those contributions will almost certainly be bigger when he's 26. I'm sure prospect analysts will vehemently disagree with all that, but anything out of the norm will always be met with disagreement. I'm not one for conventional wisdom.

Anyway, Donaldson at SS isn't gonna happen. His shoulder is in rough shape, and there are a lot more high-stress throws from SS even though the distance to 1B is roughly similar to 3B, since the ball is fielded a lot further from the plate. It's a different animal. 2B on the other hand, I'm sure he could handle. And with that shoulder issue, it might not be the worst idea to put him at 2B if they decide to call-up Vlad. In that situation it's basically Vlad vs Travis/Gurriel for a roster spot, and I don't think there's any doubt that at least seeing what Vlad can do for a month is the better option for success this season (not taking into account the cost we'll pay in 2025 when Vlad will have entered free agency) than just sticking with one of those two. If Vlad fails in a one month trial, we can always send him back down. The potential benefit for the 2018 season is obviously huge, though. He's already projected as a well above league average hitter and with the high variance associated with prospects, there's a decent chance he's already a 3+ WAR player. And if he's replacement level, we just send him back down.

Unfortunately our starting pitching is so terrible, that it might not be worth sacrificing any future value to make a run at the playoffs this year if we don't make any additions to the rotation, but that's a separate issue. But the only viable alternative is waiting until a month or two into the 2019 season to call up Vlad and I don't know that waiting another 12 months to call up one of the team's current best players will be very good for morale, for either the team or the fans.

[Schad]

Unfortunately our starting pitching is so terrible, that it might not be worth sacrificing any future value to make a run at the playoffs this year if we don't make any additions to the rotation, but that's a separate issue. But the only viable alternative is waiting until a month or two into the 2019 season to call up Vlad and I don't know that waiting another 12 months to call up one of the team's current best players will be very good for morale, for either the team or the fans.

Let's not go nuts here. As great as he is as a prospect, people are seriously overrating his chances of being a top-quality major league hitter at 19. No question that his advanced skills would allow him to hold his own, but is he a 3 WAR major leaguer if called up tomorrow? Almost definitely not.

[Skin Blues]

Unfortunately our starting pitching is so terrible, that it might not be worth sacrificing any future value to make a run at the playoffs this year if we don't make any additions to the rotation, but that's a separate issue. But the only viable alternative is waiting until a month or two into the 2019 season to call up Vlad and I don't know that waiting another 12 months to call up one of the team's current best players will be very good for morale, for either the team or the fans.

Let's not go nuts here. As great as he is as a prospect, people are seriously overrating his chances of being a top-quality major league hitter at 19. No question that his advanced skills would allow him to hold his own, but is he a 3 WAR major leaguer if called up tomorrow? Almost definitely not.

Steamer has him as a 108 wRC+ ROS. His defense doesn't need to be great for him to manage 2 WAR as a mean projection (full-season prorated). Doesn't take much positive variance to become 3 WAR, and it's definitely not crazy. Just as crazy as him only being a 1 WAR player, basically.

[Schad]

Steamer has him as a 108 wRC+ ROS. His defense doesn't need to be great for him to manage 2 WAR as a mean projection (full-season prorated). Doesn't take much positive variance to become 3 WAR, and it's definitely not crazy. Just as crazy as him only being a 1 WAR player, basically.

108 wRC+ while splitting time being DH and playing a below-average 3B isn't exactly "one of our best players" material, though. It's amazing for a 19 year old, to be sure, but worth burning his age 26 season? Not remotely.

[Skin Blues]

Steamer has him as a 108 wRC+ ROS. His defense doesn't need to be great for him to manage 2 WAR as a mean projection (full-season prorated). Doesn't take much positive variance to become 3 WAR, and it's definitely not crazy. Just as crazy as him only being a 1 WAR player, basically.

108 wRC+ while splitting time being DH and playing a below-average 3B isn't exactly "one of our best players" material, though. It's amazing for a 19 year old, to be sure, but worth burning his age 26 season? Not remotely.

He's projected as the 3rd best hitter in our entire system right now behind Donaldson and Smoak. Slice that up any way you want by sticking him at DH to reduce his defensive value (which wouldn't happen, but whatever), but in a vacuum where all that matters is competing, he definitely should be getting every day at-bats at the MLB level.

I also didn't say it was worth sacrificing his age 26 season, but it's definitely something to consider. Not to you, since there's essentially nothing that could happen that would make you want this team to put any resources into competing this year. But for the rest of us: it is becoming more and more favourable as he continues to perform at this level.

Also notable is that the 2025 season we'd be getting is not exactly free, or even cheap, if we give him the Kris Bryant/Ronald Acuna treatment. It'll probably cost us in the area of $30M (Bryant will be getting >$30M+ in his 4th arb season) if he's close to as good as we think he is. If we choose not to call him up at the Super 2 cutoff in a couple weeks, we're trading a roughly 2 WAR season (with potential for more, obviously) during a year in which we're legitimately competing for a playoff spot, for a roughly 6 WAR season in 2025 when we in all likelihood will not be in as good a position as we are now. That $30M+ 4th year of arb wipes out about half of the projected WAR. So we're getting like 1 WAR extra, maybe, by not calling him up this year. The present value of 1 WAR, 7 years in the future, is... I don't really know. But significantly less than 1 WAR, in any case. There of course is the option of leaving Vlad down until the Super 2 cutoff in 2019 but the city would probably be rioting in the streets if that happened, and the MLBPA would have it's best and most clear-cut case of service time manipulation to argue against.

[Schad]

He's projected as the 3rd best hitter in our entire system right now behind Donaldson and Smoak. Slice that up any way you want by sticking him at DH to reduce his defensive value (which wouldn't happen, but whatever), but in a vacuum where all that matters is competing, he definitely should be getting every day at-bats at the MLB level.

We can't play two third basemen, he likely doesn't have the range to play a corner OF spot (and has never played there), and Smoak's the superior 1B. That doesn't leave a lot of options available. He'd also be competing for at-bats with two guys in Granderson and Pearce who are projected for a 107 and 106 wRC+, respectively, so it's the most marginal of upgrades unless you're totally writing Grichuk off (and I don't imagine that you are, heh), and possibly a downgrade if playing him in the OF where he's likely to be a step down on even the defensive stylings of Granderson/Pearce.

I also didn't say it was worth sacrificing his age 26 season, but it's definitely something to consider. Not to you, since there's essentially nothing that could happen that would make you want this team to put any resources into competing this year. But for the rest of us: it is becoming more and more favourable as he continues to perform at this level.

We aren't lacking somewhat-above-average hitters who are flawed defensively at the moment, though. While the value of a win increases dramatically on the bubble, Guerrero just isn't a huge upgrade at 19. If we're leading the Wild Card by a couple games or more in late July and Donaldson goes down for the season, it's a consideration? Otherwise, the benefits simply aren't likely to outweigh the costs.

Also notable is that the 2025 season we'd be getting is not exactly free, or even cheap, if we give him the Kris Bryant/Ronald Acuna treatment. It'll probably cost us in the area of $30M (Bryant will be getting >$30M+ in his 4th arb season) if he's close to as good as we think he is. If we choose not to call him up at the Super 2 cutoff in a couple weeks, we're trading a roughly 2 WAR season (with potential for more, obviously) during a year in which we're legitimately competing for a playoff spot, for a roughly 6 WAR season in 2025 when we in all likelihood will not be in as good a position as we are now. That $30M+ 4th year of arb wipes out about half of the projected WAR. So we're getting like 1 WAR extra, maybe, by not calling him up this year. The present value of 1 WAR, 7 years in the future, is... I don't really know. But significantly less than 1 WAR, in any case. There of course is the option of leaving Vlad down until the Super 2 cutoff in 2019 but the city would probably be rioting in the streets if that happened, and the MLBPA would have it's best and most clear-cut case of service time manipulation to argue against.

It would be quite an expensive season, unquestionably. But even 4th-year arb represents a considerable savings, and furthermore gives us a better (though still not good) chance of working out an extension earlier in his career.

And while I don't think we'd leave him down until the Super 2 cutoff, MLBPA would have an impossible battle in convincing anyone that leaving a 20 year old (no matter how good) in AAA was an intolerable service time manipulation. Kris Bryant was the most blatant example -- he was already 23, and far too good to be in the minors -- and they couldn't even get a hearing.