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Political Roundtable Part XX

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#341 » by Pointgod » Sat May 5, 2018 6:25 pm

stilldropin20 wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:This is a trend line to watch for November 6th...

Image

And the direction that independents are leaning...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/02/12/a-chunk-of-republicans-appears-to-be-becoming-independents/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d0f2e113667d

Trump CAN win a second term but it's going to be extremely difficult if the GOP keeps voters.

Basically, HRC won't be on the ballot this time.


and trump will be 10 times more powerful. diamond and silk, candace owens, larry elder, an dmany others have all gained traction in the american psyche and will be HOT on the campaign trail. and possibly even kanye west. He wont lose.

economy would have to tank. and it will likely be peaking. I'm calling it now. 57% of the votes. 58% if they crack down on illegals voting.


lmao put down the crack pipe. You think Americans actually listen to those clowns you listed? You just keep going further off the deep end.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#342 » by stilldropin20 » Sat May 5, 2018 10:53 pm

Pointgod wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:Trump CAN win a second term but it's going to be extremely difficult if the GOP keeps voters.

Basically, HRC won't be on the ballot this time.


and trump will be 10 times more powerful. diamond and silk, candace owens, larry elder, an dmany others have all gained traction in the american psyche and will be HOT on the campaign trail. and possibly even kanye west. He wont lose.

economy would have to tank. and it will likely be peaking. I'm calling it now. 57% of the votes. 58% if they crack down on illegals voting.


lmao put down the crack pipe. You think Americans actually listen to those clowns you listed? You just keep going further off the deep end.

Clowns? Really? Interesting.


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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#343 » by nate33 » Sat May 5, 2018 11:54 pm

Wizardspride wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:This is a trend line to watch for November 6th...

Image

And the direction that independents are leaning...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/02/12/a-chunk-of-republicans-appears-to-be-becoming-independents/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d0f2e113667d

Trump CAN win a second term but it's going to be extremely difficult if the GOP keeps losing voters.

Basically, HRC won't be on the ballot this time.

This type of analysis is worthless until we know exactly who is running. The Democrats are a coalition of groups with significantly disparate interests. Blacks showed up to vote for Obama; and the Clintons have always had a good relationship with them so they showed up for Hillary; but will they show up for say, Warren or Sanders? Will Hispanics show up to vote for, say, Corey Booker?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#344 » by dckingsfan » Sun May 6, 2018 2:19 am

nate33 wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:This is a trend line to watch for November 6th...

Image

And the direction that independents are leaning...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/02/12/a-chunk-of-republicans-appears-to-be-becoming-independents/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d0f2e113667d

Trump CAN win a second term but it's going to be extremely difficult if the GOP keeps losing voters.

Basically, HRC won't be on the ballot this time.

This type of analysis is worthless until we know exactly who is running. The Democrats are a coalition of groups with significantly disparate interests. Blacks showed up to vote for Obama; and the Clintons have always had a good relationship with them so they showed up for Hillary; but will they show up for say, Warren or Sanders? Will Hispanics show up to vote for, say, Corey Booker?

That is a very good point. I think Wizardspride pointed out it won't be Hillary - so there is that. But, the trend is there (and that is what makes it both interesting and worthwhile (on a federal, state and local level)... Now, the question is there a correction or does it keep going the wrong direction for the Rs.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#345 » by stilldropin20 » Sun May 6, 2018 12:22 pm

the full court transcripts are quite entertaining.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#346 » by stilldropin20 » Sun May 6, 2018 7:22 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#347 » by stilldropin20 » Sun May 6, 2018 7:46 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#348 » by stilldropin20 » Sun May 6, 2018 8:10 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#349 » by stilldropin20 » Sun May 6, 2018 8:11 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#350 » by stilldropin20 » Sun May 6, 2018 8:12 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#351 » by Zonkerbl » Sun May 6, 2018 10:04 pm

nate33 wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:This is a trend line to watch for November 6th...

Image

And the direction that independents are leaning...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/02/12/a-chunk-of-republicans-appears-to-be-becoming-independents/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d0f2e113667d

Trump CAN win a second term but it's going to be extremely difficult if the GOP keeps losing voters.

Basically, HRC won't be on the ballot this time.

This type of analysis is worthless until we know exactly who is running. The Democrats are a coalition of groups with significantly disparate interests. Blacks showed up to vote for Obama; and the Clintons have always had a good relationship with them so they showed up for Hillary; but will they show up for say, Warren or Sanders? Will Hispanics show up to vote for, say, Corey Booker?


I'm more worried about the 2018 elections. If the Dems take over the house Trump can sit and spin because he won't be able to get anything accomplished what with all the investigations and impeachment proceedings and finally facing the women who accuse him of rape. But the Dems need to accomplish a historic wave election and it looks like those incompetent boobs are already pissing away all the advantage that Trump gifted to them earlier in the year.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Maybe "enthusiasm" will carry the day. Looks like the Dems are collapsing again though.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#352 » by Zonkerbl » Sun May 6, 2018 10:20 pm

Pointgod wrote:
TGW wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:Trump CAN win a second term but it's going to be extremely difficult if the GOP keeps voters.

Basically, HRC won't be on the ballot this time.


What? I thought trump colluded with the Russians and there was obvious proof of it. How can a Putin puppet win a second term? :o


Can Trump run for a second term from jail?


He won't be in jail if the Dems can't take the house in 2018. Which looks increasingly unlikely.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#353 » by Pointgod » Mon May 7, 2018 1:50 am

Zonkerbl wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
TGW wrote:
What? I thought trump colluded with the Russians and there was obvious proof of it. How can a Putin puppet win a second term? :o


Can Trump run for a second term from jail?


He won't be in jail if the Dems can't take the house in 2018. Which looks increasingly unlikely.


I think you're overly pessimistic. I wouldn't pay attention to the polls at this point. Still far away from the midterms. Democrats will most likely take the House and the Senate is in play. It won't be easy, but the if the lies, corruption, attacks on the government, giveaway to corporations, attempt to take healthcare from millions of people can't get Democrats to vote the Republican sycophants out office because "Democrats don't cater to their every whim" then they have no right to complain when Trump and Republicans flush the country down the ****.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#354 » by stilldropin20 » Mon May 7, 2018 3:16 am

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/02/politics/trump-approval-cnn-poll/index.html?sr=twCNN040218trump-approval-cnn-poll0735PMStory

Men. Trump was at 50% approval in March as compared to 42% approval in February.
Young voters. In February, just 1 in 5 voters aged 18-34 approved of how Trump was handling the job. In March, that number increased to 30%
Middle-aged voters. Trump's gains among the young(ish) were one-upped by his showing among those between 35 and 49 years old, where he gained 9 points in approval in a month.
College graduates: A group that has long been resistant to Trump had the biggest change of heart toward him between February and March: A 10-point swing.


The Point: Trump's gains among young voters and college graduates are intriguing -- even if they need to be leavened with the fact that they represent a snapshot in time. Look
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#355 » by stilldropin20 » Mon May 7, 2018 4:35 am

Pointgod wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
Can Trump run for a second term from jail?


He won't be in jail if the Dems can't take the house in 2018. Which looks increasingly unlikely.


I think you're overly pessimistic. I wouldn't pay attention to the polls at this point. Still far away from the midterms. Democrats will most likely take the House and the Senate is in play. It won't be easy, but the if the lies, corruption, attacks on the government, giveaway to corporations, attempt to take healthcare from millions of people can't get Democrats to vote the Republican sycophants out office because "Democrats don't cater to their every whim" then they have no right to complain when Trump and Republicans flush the country down the ****.



i thought you fools were "independents?" :lol: :lol:

anyhow,
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#356 » by stilldropin20 » Mon May 7, 2018 5:04 am

Zonkerbl wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
TGW wrote:
What? I thought trump colluded with the Russians and there was obvious proof of it. How can a Putin puppet win a second term? :o


Can Trump run for a second term from jail?


He won't be in jail if the Dems can't take the house in 2018. Which looks increasingly unlikely.


so that "big blue wave" you guys promised me every single day for months is not happening now? no show down in the house and senate floor? Just whole lotta more Trump winning? :lol: :lol: I guess that's ok. Wont be as exciting though.

Here's some hints. 1. first get a plan. a real plan. A NEW plan. A different. Hopefully one that works to enrich the poor and working poor through motivation to work for their keep. Not handouts. BTW, failing to plan is NOT a plan. 2. stop calling everyone who doesn't agree with your idiot brand of politics a racist. 3. Then learn how to package your "plan" into a message. 4. and whatever you do. dont just go find another used cars salesman to sell your idiot brand of go nowhere move no needles failed democratic policies. 5. Along the way. it might be a good idea to learn to love your country. learn to love yourselves. learn to love your neighbor. Help yourselves. help you neighbor. help your country. :nod: :nod: :nod:


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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#357 » by Wizardspride » Mon May 7, 2018 12:08 pm

Interesting read.

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President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#358 » by Zonkerbl » Mon May 7, 2018 4:58 pm

Pointgod wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
Can Trump run for a second term from jail?


He won't be in jail if the Dems can't take the house in 2018. Which looks increasingly unlikely.


I think you're overly pessimistic. I wouldn't pay attention to the polls at this point. Still far away from the midterms. Democrats will most likely take the House and the Senate is in play. It won't be easy, but the if the lies, corruption, attacks on the government, giveaway to corporations, attempt to take healthcare from millions of people can't get Democrats to vote the Republican sycophants out office because "Democrats don't cater to their every whim" then they have no right to complain when Trump and Republicans flush the country down the ****.


No one cares about lies and corruption anymore. Trump admitted he lied about paying off Stormy Daniels last week. His poll numbers *improved.* This country f@#$ing sucks now.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#359 » by I_Like_Dirt » Mon May 7, 2018 5:10 pm

dckingsfan wrote:That is a very good point. I think Wizardspride pointed out it won't be Hillary - so there is that. But, the trend is there (and that is what makes it both interesting and worthwhile (on a federal, state and local level)... Now, the question is there a correction or does it keep going the wrong direction for the Rs.


I don't think those polls mean much at this stage. The whole Cambridge Analytica thing has blown over and was entirely misunderstood by the public, as most big data issues are. One thing it showed very clearly, though, is that driving voters to vote with their emotions matters (you might think this is patently obvious, but a large swath of Democrats haven't figured that out just yet, even though they obviously do it, too). When people are actually faced with a choice, motivating people to actually vote, matters regardless of which way they're "leaning" at any given point. I might be pessimistic, but the idea that this is going to go away on its own has never really been something I've believed in with respect to Trump and the forces behind him. These are issues that are going to require collective unselfish action to overcome no matter and given how many people out there are pointing to their own issues and asking for help, I'm not a big believer that kind of action happens unless another Obama comes along with the charisma needed to make people forget about all that other stuff. And realistically, that's a recipe for things to get worse before they get better, if they get better.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XX 

Post#360 » by stilldropin20 » Mon May 7, 2018 5:15 pm

Wizardspride wrote:Interesting read.

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during 2009-2015 i used to buy a lot of foreclosures.

boarded up and abandoned 2,3,4,6, even 12-18 multi-units.
for pennies on the dollar.
often 10-20% of their 2007 value.
I would repair and usually update the buildings with cash as well.

then....after the work was complete, I would rent out the units usually for large increases in rent because everything was "shiny and new." Here's the beautiful part. I would then be able to borrow against the building at high value due to the high amount amount of income(aka "cash out" at the extremely low interest rates). If you "cash out" on multiple properties, AKA portfolios with healthy cash flow, you get even lower rates and can take more cash out...sometime 100% of what we call value, aka appraised value, which is based on the rental income. For example. I could buy a foreclosed typical 3 unit in chicago for $200,000 that was worth around $700,000 just a few years prior. convert it to 4 units by "finishing" the basement and repair and update the entire building for $150,000. My cost would be $350,000. Typical rental income for this type of building would be $3600 in 2007 as a "dated" 3 unit. would now rent for $8000 per month. 96,000 per year. as it was updated and also has an additional unit in the basement. $96,000 in rental income for a fully repaired/updated multi-unit with taxes around $5k per year would appraise for around $800-1.3M depending on location in 2009-2015. And the exact same building could appraise for as much as 1.8 million today because the rents in that same building would go to $11,000 per month 132,000 per year. So a bank would typically loan you back 80% of the appraised value at low interest rates. Again, put 5-10 building like this in a portfolio and you are much more attractive to a bank. From 2009-2016 you could easily find a bank to give you 100% loan to appraised value on a 5 year arm at 2.25% interest rates. 4% on a 30 year. So $350,000 cash in. and $1,000,000 cash out. with 10 buildings like this. 3.5M in. and upwards of $15,000,000 out. and you go buy 50 more building just like that with the $15 million.

It's legal. Its an amazing wealth building strategy so long as interest rates are low.

there is no doubt in my mind that Trump was doing his own version of this but with much higher end real estate. Same for Kushner's dad. And with each building or portfolio being its own LLC where each is its own "corporate entity", you typically only need to show 1 year of tax returns to borrow against it. as opposed to 2 or even 3 for personal loans.

So you give up the equity to gain the cash. The cash allows you to buy even more dilapidated buildings because lender for "lend" for them or the loan process is too complex for bank to deal with it when they just want to move foreclosed property.

And guess what??? sometimes we borrow the money from chinese banks!! Sometimes Japonese!! Sometimes even Russian. Its quite common. despite the crash, our markets are more stable than nearly every single real estate market on the planet. And we have seen steady appreciation of around 4%(or more) in our major metro areas for over a century.
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