'17-'18 POY discussion

[yoyoboy]

Am I crazy for thinking CP3 is just flat better than Harden? I have no stats to back this up, but Harden seems more inconsistent game to game than any star I've ever seen. He was absolutely awful in the last 2 games of this series but CP3 was incredible and bailed the Rockets out.

I have Harden ahead, but I don't think that's a crazy take at all. Paul is a top 5 player in the league.

Paul:

On Court: +12.9
On-Off: +8.1
HOU with Harden out and Paul in: +12.0
RPM: +6.89
RAPM: +4.54

Harden:

On Court: +10.5
On-Off: +5.3
HOU with Paul out and Harden in: +8.3
RPM: +6.44
RAPM: +3.50

.

Funny how you're quick to bring up these stats here and yet you think this years Harden is clearly/easily better than peak Kobe even though he ranks well ahead of Harden in literally every single one of these stats (except rpm which isn't available for Bryant). Lmao. The hypocrisy and double standards around here are something else.

As I just stated, I have Harden clearly ahead of CP3, too, despite Paul's advantage in the plus/minus family. So wouldn't that actually be consistent with my argument of Harden over Kobe? Plus/minus is the most valuable sector of data we have for analysis and yet relying on it and only it would be absurd, especially when it involves a comparison of players who are a decade apart. Furthermore, in the case of RAPM, you're most likely comparing them using two different forms of calculation and that makes a huge difference. Shadow's 2018 RAPM is single-year and more prone to errors due to the sample size. JE's 2009 RAPM (which has Kobe 5th) is prior-informed. Not to mention Kobe's own teammate Odom is ahead of him at 3rd, but we're not going to say he's the best of all three of them, right?

Kobe averaged 26.8 ppg on +1.7 rTS%. Harden averaged 30.4 ppg on +6.3 rTS%. Kobe led an offense that was +4.5 rORTG while Harden led an offense that was +6.1 rORTG. Even without Paul last year he led Houston to a +5.9 rORTG offense. Now I understand the argument that Kobe didn't have the kind of spacing that Harden has which definitely makes things easier, and maybe he'd be more encouraged to adapt a more modern style of ball, so even despite the volume and efficiency gap, once you take that into account and factor in Kobe's gravity as a scorer, I think it's close. Even if you want to give Kobe a slight edge, I'm fine with that, but let's not understate how valuable Harden's ability to get to the line (.541 career FTr) and shoot the three (37% on 10 attempts per game with a large portion of those being incredibly difficult isolation stepbacks) are. In fact, just 26% of Harden's threes this year are assisted. Kobe's career low in the mark over a full season is 58% by comparison, so it goes to show you how lethal Harden is with his combo of 1-on-1 ability and shooting. In fact Harden led the league with 10.0 iso possessions per game (second in the league was LeBron at 6.4 per game) and scored on them at an absolutely ridiculous 1.22 PPP (!) or 61% TS. To put that in perspective...league average on isolation possessions is about 0.85 PPP. LeBron was at 0.96 PPP. KD at 1.06 PPP. Kyrie at 1.04 PPP. Steph at 1.05 PPP. Harden is the most deadly scorer in the game once he gets his defender on an island and that's perhaps the most offensive valuable ability you can have especially when paired with elite playmaking to make defenses pay for helping. To be honest, after writing all of this I've convinced myself that it's pretty difficult to give Kobe (08-09) any sort of edge in scoring over Harden (17-18) and at the worst you can call it even there.

And then defensively it's roughly equal. Kobe was slightly above average (great one-on-one in spurts but inconsistent effort and meh off the ball) and contrary to popular belief Harden has been pretty decent this year. He's been active in the passing lanes (1.8 spg) and excellent switching onto bigs - doing a fantastic job whenever KAT tried to back him down last series. On the ball he's been hit or miss with good footwork and a strong core, but occasional laziness in staying in front so about average there. Off the ball has been his biggest weak point in the past though and he's really cleaned that up. He doesn't fall asleep on the weak side anymore. RAPM rated Kobe at a +0.3 DRAPM while Harden came out at a +0.2, and that's pretty consistent with the eye test for me; they're both right around neutral.

But as far as playmaking, this is clearly Harden and it's what gives him the edge for me. Harden averaged 9 apg this past season and 11 last year before he started sharing the playmaking duties with Paul. Now you can argue that the D'Antoni offense supercharged him and the triangle offense limited Kobe's playmaking, but even before D'Antoni, Harden averaged 7.5 apg (6.6 his entire career in Houston, whereas Kobe's career high was 6.0). Kobe had good vision but Harden has actual point guard ability and can really run an offense, kick out to three point shooters, and he's made his team maybe the most lethal shooting team ever while bearing a huge creation load (30 ppg and 10 apg the past two years). His ability to isolate, dance, slash, and either get all the way to the cup or find the shooter is just so valuable. It's simple yet uber efficient offense and Harden has completely mastered it.

So I have Harden as around the 15th best peak ever (assuming he keeps this up) and Kobe around 20-21.

[Dr Spaceman]

Wow. I almost turned off the Warrior game in the third quarter. What a run.

[dhsilv2]

Am I crazy for thinking CP3 is just flat better than Harden? I have no stats to back this up, but Harden seems more inconsistent game to game than any star I've ever seen. He was absolutely awful in the last 2 games of this series but CP3 was incredible and bailed the Rockets out.

Harden was under the weather tonight, as per CP3 himself. Harden is their first option, first-option creator, and in general generates the most havoc for opposing defenses.

But Paul played great tonight, no doubt.

I think people mis that even in a bad shooting night harden is creating oppertunities for others. The impact here wasnt as bad as the shooting indicates.

[Dr Spaceman]

Am I crazy for thinking CP3 is just flat better than Harden? I have no stats to back this up, but Harden seems more inconsistent game to game than any star I've ever seen. He was absolutely awful in the last 2 games of this series but CP3 was incredible and bailed the Rockets out.

Harden was under the weather tonight, as per CP3 himself. Harden is their first option, first-option creator, and in general generates the most havoc for opposing defenses.

But Paul played great tonight, no doubt.

I think people mis that even in a bad shooting night harden is creating oppertunities for others. The impact here wasnt as bad as the shooting indicates.

Honestly it depends. There are some nights where he’s being aggressive and getting into the lane and creating drama in the defense but just missing his shots, and then there are games where he spends a lot of time hanging out behind the arc and looks like he’s doing step back 3 point shooting drills instead of playing in a game. There’s a difference between “missing shots” Harden and “disengaged” Harden and if we see the latter against Golden State, probably even jsut for 1 game, the series is probably over.

[dhsilv2]

Harden was under the weather tonight, as per CP3 himself. Harden is their first option, first-option creator, and in general generates the most havoc for opposing defenses.

But Paul played great tonight, no doubt.

I think people mis that even in a bad shooting night harden is creating oppertunities for others. The impact here wasnt as bad as the shooting indicates.

Honestly it depends. There are some nights where he’s being aggressive and getting into the lane and creating drama in the defense but just missing his shots, and then there are games where he spends a lot of time hanging out behind the arc and looks like he’s doing step back 3 point shooting drills instead of playing in a game. There’s a difference between “missing shots” Harden and “disengaged” Harden and if we see the latter against Golden State, probably even jsut for 1 game, the series is probably over.

Yes and no. Agree with there are two types of bad shooting Harden, but I think both are adding value. The jumper harden however requires Paul to do something, not so much on that play but on other plays. I think of it like boxing. Normally a jab is really about control and setting people up, but for Harden 3's are both his jabs AND his knock out blows. Even on a bad shooting night teams have to stay on him, overly focus on where he is because he can just go nuts in a second. This creates opportunities for others, but sometimes the rockets other players don't realize they need to do something. That's when you get those games where nothing happens. Tonight (only saw the first half) I saw a lot of great examples of Paul playing off the Harden "jabs" if you will. I'm likely sounding like a crazy person with the boxing reference but it's the best way I can describe it.

Oh the rockets are going to just blow a game massively in the series at least one. They just need 4 wins and imo they have the firepower to have 4 great shooting nights and to be honest I'm not sure I don't like the rockets in a shootout where both teams can't miss against even the warriors. I might be under rating the warrior's defense this year, but they don't seem like the defensive team they've been in the past.

[Dr Spaceman]

I think people mis that even in a bad shooting night harden is creating oppertunities for others. The impact here wasnt as bad as the shooting indicates.

Honestly it depends. There are some nights where he’s being aggressive and getting into the lane and creating drama in the defense but just missing his shots, and then there are games where he spends a lot of time hanging out behind the arc and looks like he’s doing step back 3 point shooting drills instead of playing in a game. There’s a difference between “missing shots” Harden and “disengaged” Harden and if we see the latter against Golden State, probably even jsut for 1 game, the series is probably over.

Yes and no. Agree with there are two types of bad shooting Harden, but I think both are adding value. The jumper harden however requires Paul to do something, not so much on that play but on other plays. I think of it like boxing. Normally a jab is really about control and setting people up, but for Harden 3's are both his jabs AND his knock out blows. Even on a bad shooting night teams have to stay on him, overly focus on where he is because he can just go nuts in a second. This creates opportunities for others, but sometimes the rockets other players don't realize they need to do something. That's when you get those games where nothing happens. Tonight (only saw the first half) I saw a lot of great examples of Paul playing off the Harden "jabs" if you will. I'm likely sounding like a crazy person with the boxing reference but it's the best way I can describe it.

Oh the rockets are going to just blow a game massively in the series at least one. They just need 4 wins and imo they have the firepower to have 4 great shooting nights and to be honest I'm not sure I don't like the rockets in a shootout where both teams can't miss against even the warriors. I might be under rating the warrior's defense this year, but they don't seem like the defensive team they've been in the past.

Right now, gun to my head, I’m choosing Houston as the favorite in this series. As the reg season went along, they sold me more and more, and honestly they’ve both demonstrated a higher average level of play and a higher ceiling than Golden State in the postseason (albeit with a lower floor as well). But looking at the range of outcomes here, I honestly just see more scenarios where the Rockets pull out the win, especially with HCA (which is far, FAR more crucial than I think anyone here is admitting-this honestly could decide the series). I pick Houston at home in game 7.

The Warriors just don’t look like the same team to me. They lack the energy and composure to hold leads and their defense has really fallen off. There’s no telling what we’re going to see from Curry but many people I trust (Especially Nate Duncan) are saying he’s being held back by the knee injury/conditioning. It certainly was a factor in 2016.

Golden State allowed like an 18-2 run in the 4th quarter against NOP even with the starters in the game. Even when they push through to dominant leads you never quite feel like it’s safe, whereas Houston just stomps on throats.

I don’t want this to all be about how bad GS looks to me, because Houston is amazing. To date truly one of the most impressive teams I’ve seen in the past decade. I’ve written so much about them I don’t want to rehash here- but I really, truly feel that if you isolated the 2018 season by itself, you’d have to conclude Houston was better. There’s the chance of course that GS could get back to 2017 level, but 2 things: 1. We haven’t seen it at any point this year or even an indication of it and 2. They really weren’t even tested last year in the way they will be by Houston. Cleveland was good, but the Warriors played 3 cupcake series before that where they barely broke a sweat.

We’ll see.

[dhsilv2]

Honestly it depends. There are some nights where he’s being aggressive and getting into the lane and creating drama in the defense but just missing his shots, and then there are games where he spends a lot of time hanging out behind the arc and looks like he’s doing step back 3 point shooting drills instead of playing in a game. There’s a difference between “missing shots” Harden and “disengaged” Harden and if we see the latter against Golden State, probably even jsut for 1 game, the series is probably over.

Yes and no. Agree with there are two types of bad shooting Harden, but I think both are adding value. The jumper harden however requires Paul to do something, not so much on that play but on other plays. I think of it like boxing. Normally a jab is really about control and setting people up, but for Harden 3's are both his jabs AND his knock out blows. Even on a bad shooting night teams have to stay on him, overly focus on where he is because he can just go nuts in a second. This creates opportunities for others, but sometimes the rockets other players don't realize they need to do something. That's when you get those games where nothing happens. Tonight (only saw the first half) I saw a lot of great examples of Paul playing off the Harden "jabs" if you will. I'm likely sounding like a crazy person with the boxing reference but it's the best way I can describe it.

Oh the rockets are going to just blow a game massively in the series at least one. They just need 4 wins and imo they have the firepower to have 4 great shooting nights and to be honest I'm not sure I don't like the rockets in a shootout where both teams can't miss against even the warriors. I might be under rating the warrior's defense this year, but they don't seem like the defensive team they've been in the past.

Right now, gun to my head, I’m choosing Houston as the favorite in this series. As the reg season went along, they sold me more and more, and honestly they’ve both demonstrated a higher average level of play and a higher ceiling than Golden State in the postseason (albeit with a lower floor as well). But looking at the range of outcomes here, I honestly just see more scenarios where the Rockets pull out the win, especially with HCA (which is far, FAR more crucial than I think anyone here is admitting-this honestly could decide the series). I pick Houston at home in game 7.

The Warriors just don’t look like the same team to me. They lack the energy and composure to hold leads and their defense has really fallen off. There’s no telling what we’re going to see from Curry but many people I trust (Especially Nate Duncan) are saying he’s being held back by the knee injury/conditioning. It certainly was a factor in 2016.

Golden State allowed like an 18-2 run in the 4th quarter against NOP even with the starters in the game. Even when they push through to dominant leads you never quite feel like it’s safe, whereas Houston just stomps on throats.

I don’t want this to all be about how bad GS looks to me, because Houston is amazing. To date truly one of the most impressive teams I’ve seen in the past decade. I’ve written so much about them I don’t want to rehash here- but I really, truly feel that if you isolated the 2018 season by itself, you’d have to conclude Houston was better. There’s the chance of course that GS could get back to 2017 level, but 2 things: 1. We haven’t seen it at any point this year or even an indication of it and 2. They really weren’t even tested last year in the way they will be by Houston. Cleveland was good, but the Warriors played 3 cupcake series before that where they barely broke a sweat.

We’ll see.

Agree with you completely here. The Jazz imo are a significantly better team than the pelicans, which I know is likely controversial. The rockets were great despite playing (because Gobert was playing and even without rubio) the best defense if not by far the best defense.

That said I see some conditioning issues with Curry, but unlike in 16 he seems like he can plant and elevate pretty well. As long as he can do that, he can beat a team with his jumper. Against the cavs that year his cuts and stops were very "soft" and he lost his timing and spacing. I'm optimistic that he'll play well. I really want to see a classic conference finals, but I'm fully expecting 6-7 games and over half to be blow outs.

[HeartBreakKid]

If both CP3 and Harden are playing well at the same time, they can beat the Warriors. We've seen a lot of games where one guy was struggling though.

[dhsilv2]

If both CP3 and Harden are playing well at the same time, they can beat the Warriors. We've seen a lot of games where one guy was struggling though.

We've seen some less than stellar games from the warriors, no? As long as the role players for the rockets are hitting hots and Capella is effective (and he might be a hard cover over a 7 game series, we'll see), I can see a poor night from harden or paul and a win.

A few things that will be interesting to follow.

1. Offensive rebound rate off missed Harden step backs. This is one of those secrete value adds his shots create, they bounce so far back that they're more likely to not just be offensive rebounded but almost can create a great look as a result.
2. Will curry turn the ball over too much? Curry doesn't seem to have any issue getting cute even in the finals, will he compound this with being a bit out of shape coming in?
3. Do the warriors continue to go without a big man? Last year they used big men a lot, during the season their best lineups used mcgee and zaza, now they used more small ball in the playoffs, but this year they seem to be going all small. Does that help or hurt in this series? Gobert was even tonight a serious problem for the rocket's offense.
4. How are they going to guard KD? With Paul on Curry I feel the rockets feel they can let that one go one on one so Ariza/Tucker on KD with help coming off Dray or anyone who isn't Klay?
5. You can't hide Curry when Harden and Paul are on the floor, but who covers Paul when Harden is off? We going to see Klay play extended minutes or Iggy on Paul?

I'm just getting too hyped. This is on paper the best playoff series in some time for me. Two great teams, both play interesting ball, and gosh darn it...I like both teams irrationally.

[The-Power]

4. How are they going to guard KD? With Paul on Curry I feel the rockets feel they can let that one go one on one so Ariza/Tucker on KD with help coming off Dray or anyone who isn't Klay?

When the pick comes, there is no defensive player ever who can contain Curry without a big stepping up when his shot is on. This is the difference between Curry and many other superstars. Other superstars are being double teamed in certain situations but with a great defender, you can get away with deciding (!) to go one on one. With Curry, you just cannot decide that. He is going to use screens, set screens, and going to run around all the time. He consistently creates situations where you other defenders have to react or it is going to be a good shot.

Also, Curry has going off on Paul a lot over the past few years. As good as Paul is at reading offenses and bothering his assignments, he is not the type of defender that Curry struggles against at times – not long enough, not completely focused on chasing him all around. Just like any other team, the Rockets will have to come up with a plan of containing Curry when the pick comes that involves rotations. The problem is that you might have some success just switching because Curry currently is not in the shape to punish that, he simply does not move that well yet.

5. You can't hide Curry when Harden and Paul are on the floor, but who covers Paul when Harden is off? We going to see Klay play extended minutes or Iggy on Paul?

Curry has been doing fine against Paul in the past, and playing against low-usage Paul next to Harden is nothing I am worried about. Paul is going to have a great impact on the game nonetheless because that is just who he is. But there is nothing about Paul that makes him a tough cover for Curry in particular. Curry can also stick to their spot-up shooters.

What the Warriors will have to find is a way to cover Harden when he is switched onto Curry. Harden, especially with his shot on, is one of the toughest players to contain in the league. Curry would have issues with him even fully healthy, but with the way he is moving around it will be even more augmented. It is going to be interesting to see, a real challenge to Kerr and his guys as well as the team as a whole.

[dhsilv2]

4. How are they going to guard KD? With Paul on Curry I feel the rockets feel they can let that one go one on one so Ariza/Tucker on KD with help coming off Dray or anyone who isn't Klay?

When the pick comes, there is no defensive player ever who can contain Curry without a big stepping up when his shot is on. This is the difference between Curry and many other superstars. Other superstars are being double teamed in certain situations but with a great defender, you can get away with deciding (!) to go one on one. With Curry, you just cannot decide that. He is going to use screens, set screens, and going to run around all the time. He consistently creates situations where you other defenders have to react or it is going to be a good shot.

Also, Curry has going off on Paul a lot over the past few years. As good as Paul is at reading offenses and bothering his assignments, he is not the type of defender that Curry struggles against at times – not long enough, not completely focused on chasing him all around. Just like any other team, the Rockets will have to come up with a plan of containing Curry when the pick comes that involves rotations. The problem is that you might have some success just switching because Curry currently is not in the shape to punish that, he simply does not move that well yet.

5. You can't hide Curry when Harden and Paul are on the floor, but who covers Paul when Harden is off? We going to see Klay play extended minutes or Iggy on Paul?

Curry has been doing fine against Paul in the past, and playing against low-usage Paul next to Harden is nothing I am worried about. Paul is going to have a great impact on the game nonetheless because that is just who he is. But there is nothing about Paul that makes him a tough cover for Curry in particular. Curry can also stick to their spot-up shooters.

What the Warriors will have to find is a way to cover Harden when he is switched onto Curry. Harden, especially with his shot on, is one of the toughest players to contain in the league. Curry would have issues with him even fully healthy, but with the way he is moving around it will be even more augmented. It is going to be interesting to see, a real challenge to Kerr and his guys as well as the team as a whole.

You answered both my questions with things unrelated. I wasn't asking how was currying getting guarded on a screen. I wasn't asking how they'd guard Paul when harden was on the court.

[The-Power]

You answered both my questions with things unrelated. I wasn't asking how was currying getting guarded on a screen. I wasn't asking how they'd guard Paul when harden was on the court.

The first point you made was about how they would guard KD, assuming that the Rockets will be fine just letting Paul take on Curry one-on-one. As a reaction to that, I argued that there is no such thing as taking on Curry one-on-one due to the way he forces defenses to react with multiple players.

The second point you made focused on how they would guard Paul without Harden on the floor, yes. But you also mentioned that you can't 'hide' Curry with both on the floor, and that what my post addressed by stressing that Paul is actually a decent match-up for Curry. If you don't feel correctly understood, okay, take my post as a separate observation then. But I did respond to things you wrote and used them to make my points, even though the things I responded to weren't the focus of your post.

[Dr Spaceman]

When the pick comes, there is no defensive player ever who can contain Curry without a big stepping up when his shot is on. This is the difference between Curry and many other superstars. Other superstars are being double teamed in certain situations but with a great defender, you can get away with deciding (!) to go one on one. With Curry, you just cannot decide that. He is going to use screens, set screens, and going to run around all the time. He consistently creates situations where you other defenders have to react or it is going to be a good shot.

Also, Curry has going off on Paul a lot over the past few years. As good as Paul is at reading offenses and bothering his assignments, he is not the type of defender that Curry struggles against at times – not long enough, not completely focused on chasing him all around. Just like any other team, the Rockets will have to come up with a plan of containing Curry when the pick comes that involves rotations. The problem is that you might have some success just switching because Curry currently is not in the shape to punish that, he simply does not move that well yet.

I do wonder if the Rockets are going to just try to switch everything off ball. There’s actually no one in their rotation except Harden who I’d be uncomfortable having guard Curry for a possession. They’ve stuck to the switching all season long- by now they’re a well-oiled machine in terms of their communication and execution and Curry in his current form I don’t think is going to be roasting Capela off the dribble. I don’t know what counters the Warriors possess for such a strategy given their hatred for mismatch ball.

Curry has been doing fine against Paul in the past, and playing against low-usage Paul next to Harden is nothing I am worried about. Paul is going to have a great impact on the game nonetheless because that is just who he is. But there is nothing about Paul that makes him a tough cover for Curry in particular. Curry can also stick to their spot-up shooters.

What the Warriors will have to find is a way to cover Harden when he is switched onto Curry. Harden, especially with his shot on, is one of the toughest players to contain in the league. Curry would have issues with him even fully healthy, but with the way he is moving around it will be even more augmented. It is going to be interesting to see, a real challenge to Kerr and his guys as well as the team as a whole.

Id be really, really, really worried about the bolded. One reason the Rockets offense is probably the best half-court attack we’ve seen in quite a while is that everyone in their front court is a potential screener. They don’t play anyone who can’t make a play with the ball or shoot if t]left open. This is a big, big deal with Curry in particular because Houston can pick him out every single time down the floor and have his man just screen for Harden or Paul. I’d actually be much more comfortable having Curry start possessions on Paul than on Tucker for example, because if you just have Tucker set a screen for Paul now Paul gets to attack Curry with a head of steam in a type of defense he doesn’t really practice. The Rockets are the most threatening team in the league in terms of seeking out a week point and just hammering it until it bursts.

As far as Curry guarding Paul, I agree he’ll do fine straight up. The real challenge will be getting him around the screen fast enough that the big can recover to the roll man (assuming they play a big) because Paul loves that move where he dribbles across the lane and hits the open 15 footer, which you have to defend essentially like es getting a layup (because for him it is).

But overall concern number 1 for me is: I think the Warriors will be the team forced into the first adjustment here. Capela just poses a huge huge maychup problem for them. Houston’s offense is actually better with him out there meaning he’s not threatened by the Hampton five lineup because the Rockets score well enough to hang and he will brutalize the Warriors forwards with offensive rebounds and lobs. And defensively he is more than capable of keeping up with Curry and guarding the Dubs on the perimeter. He’s essentially the only big in the league who’s Warrior-proof. If he can force the Warriors to plain bigs in their lineups, well look out. That is when Harden and Paul start licking their chops.

Capela for me will end up being the piece that decides the series.

Man, can’t wait for this one.

[The-Power]

I don’t know what counters the Warriors possess for such a strategy given their hatred for mismatch ball.

Could you expand on that? What do you mean?

If he can force the Warriors to plain bigs in their lineups, well look out.

I don't think he can, to be honest. The Warriors have Green, Durant (if focused) and Looney who can contain him inside and do a decent jobs on switches. Davis could not force the Warriors to play their more traditional bigs, so I doubt Capela – primarily a lob threat and offensive rebounder – can do it. Sure, the Warriors could help on Davis more easily but they usually helped in positions that I would gladly grant to Capela.

But it sure will be interesting. The Warriors are great at swarming, helping, recovering – but it is going to be tough against such a spread-out team. We will see who prevails, should be a good one.

[Dr Spaceman]

I don’t know what counters the Warriors possess for such a strategy given their hatred for mismatch ball.

Could you expand on that? What do you mean?

I mean that when the Rockets get a mismatch, they stop the offense, pull the ball out, and run an isolation or pick and roll. The Warriors rarely do something like this, usually jsut down the stretch of fourth quarters, they’re not a team that attacks those mismatches whenever they get the chance like Houston or Cleveland.

If he can force the Warriors to plain bigs in their lineups, well look out.

I don't think he can, to be honest. The Warriors have Green, Durant (if focused) and Looney who can contain him inside and do a decent jobs on switches. Davis could not force the Warriors to play their more traditional bigs, so I doubt Capela – primarily a lob threat and offensive rebounder – can do it. Sure, the Warriors could help on Davis more easily but they usually helped in positions that I would gladly grant to Capela.

But it sure will be interesting. The Warriors are great at swarming, helping, recovering – but it is going to be tough against such a spread-out team. We will see who prevails, should be a good one.

They were mostly double teaming Davis off ball with Rondo’s man. No one like that on the Rockets. And besides they’re not going to gear up to slow Capela like they did with Davis- the help defenders with be preoccupied with the man with the ball, which is what the Rockets are built to take advantage of. The Jazz were at times trying to hang back and close off a rolling lane to the rim for Capela- the Rockets countered by having a third man from the weak side wing crash down into the paint and got a ton of layups off such looks. I wouldn’t underestimate how well they can take advantage of Harden and Capela’s shared gravity.

[Krodis]

Besides Harden's poor shooting, the Jazz definitely made some sort of adjustment to keep Gobert near the rim, which limited Harden and Capela's productivity in Game 5. Of course, it also seemed to give PJ Tucker a bunch of wide open corner threes and the mid range was wide open for Paul.

And I think that's one of the problems guarding Houston. Even though the offensive is somewhat simple, it's just so robust that any adjustment you make is conceding something major. Teams willingly let Harden isolate on their centers all season, for example.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

[Reservoirdawgs]

That’s not what I took from it.

Lebron right now is having probably the best clutch season any individual player has ever had. He has the benefit of 1.5 decades of reading NBA defense and games, and unlike other guys who have reached that experience level, he’s taken such damn good care of his body that he’s having maybe his best playoffs overall right now.

But he’s been doing this all year. Keep the game reasonably close and then slam on the gas pedal to win a narrow victory. It’s just absolutely insane that a player can do this, like he’s toying with the league itself. I think a lot of players think they can do this, but really it’s jsut a LeBron thing.

Having a gameplan of "keep the game close and then slam on the gas pedal to win a narrow victory" is what makes this unsustainable because there is so much randomness and variance in the final minutes. The best teams are always the teams that have the high margin of victories because that is the best predictor of future and sustained success. You don't want every game to come down to the wire simply because these low%, off balance shots that Lebron has been fortunate to hit so far AREN'T always going to go in. Some scrub could throw up a shot and make it. There could be a loose ball that happens to go to a wide open person who makes a shot. If I'm the Cavs I'm feeling VERY nervous looking at how close most of these games have gone. A few things go differently and the Cavs are already sitting at home.

[dhsilv2]

You answered both my questions with things unrelated. I wasn't asking how was currying getting guarded on a screen. I wasn't asking how they'd guard Paul when harden was on the court.

The first point you made was about how they would guard KD, assuming that the Rockets will be fine just letting Paul take on Curry one-on-one. As a reaction to that, I argued that there is no such thing as taking on Curry one-on-one due to the way he forces defenses to react with multiple players.

The second point you made focused on how they would guard Paul without Harden on the floor, yes. But you also mentioned that you can't 'hide' Curry with both on the floor, and that what my post addressed by stressing that Paul is actually a decent match-up for Curry. If you don't feel correctly understood, okay, take my post as a separate observation then. But I did respond to things you wrote and used them to make my points, even though the things I responded to weren't the focus of your post.

The first point was about the overall goal if they were ok with curry in single coverage. We all know he's going to try and use screens.

[Mazter]

In games that Harden missed and Paul played, the Rockets went 6-3 (54.7 win pace). In games that Paul missed and Harden played, the Rockets went 15-6 (58.6 win pace).

I believe Harden/Paul are 44-5 together, which would make Harden without Paul 15-8. That would change the whole perspective

[INKtastic]

That’s not what I took from it.

Lebron right now is having probably the best clutch season any individual player has ever had. He has the benefit of 1.5 decades of reading NBA defense and games, and unlike other guys who have reached that experience level, he’s taken such damn good care of his body that he’s having maybe his best playoffs overall right now.

But he’s been doing this all year. Keep the game reasonably close and then slam on the gas pedal to win a narrow victory. It’s just absolutely insane that a player can do this, like he’s toying with the league itself. I think a lot of players think they can do this, but really it’s jsut a LeBron thing.

Having a gameplan of "keep the game close and then slam on the gas pedal to win a narrow victory" is what makes this unsustainable because there is so much randomness and variance in the final minutes. The best teams are always the teams that have the high margin of victories because that is the best predictor of future and sustained success. You don't want every game to come down to the wire simply because these low%, off balance shots that Lebron has been fortunate to hit so far AREN'T always going to go in. Some scrub could throw up a shot and make it. There could be a loose ball that happens to go to a wide open person who makes a shot. If I'm the Cavs I'm feeling VERY nervous looking at how close most of these games have gone. A few things go differently and the Cavs are already sitting at home.

But really a strategy of keep the game close and let LeBron win it at the end is probably the cavs best chance to beat Golden State. As long as they are able to get him enough rest along the way . It puts a lot of pressure on every posession for both teams, and you're right, it's not always going to work. But can and does work more often than not when your team has LeBron James. They simply can't ask him to play all 24 minutes of the second half, though, like they did in game 3 of the finals last year.