'17-'18 POY discussion

[SideshowBob]

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[The High Cyde]

But LeBron ball doesn't work you guys!!1!

[Ambrose]

Anyone feel like this is a much weaker year than the last few?

2015 had Curry, LeBron, Paul, Davis, Harden and Westbrook, 6 guys for 5 spots.

2016 had LeBron, Curry, Durant, Westbrook, Kawhi, Draymond and Paul, 7 guys for 5 spots.

2017 had LeBron, Curry, Westbrook, Durant, Kawhi, Harden and Draymond, and possibly Paul too, 8 guys for 5 spots.

2018 has LeBron, Harden and Davis and then a big dropoff after. They feel like the only 3 guys truly top 5 worthy.

I mean at worst Giannis still trumps any version of Draymond who you mentioned twice.

[Ambrose]

How many achievements in NBA history would top this?

Let's say GS beats Houston in 5.
Cavs beat Boston.

LeBron keeps up his insane play and knocks of GS in 7.

Obviously this is incredibly unlikely but I'm blanking on more impressive achievements than that hypothetical.

[dontcalltimeout]

Anyone feel like this is a much weaker year than the last few?

2015 had Curry, LeBron, Paul, Davis, Harden and Westbrook, 6 guys for 5 spots.

2016 had LeBron, Curry, Durant, Westbrook, Kawhi, Draymond and Paul, 7 guys for 5 spots.

2017 had LeBron, Curry, Westbrook, Durant, Kawhi, Harden and Draymond, and possibly Paul too, 8 guys for 5 spots.

2018 has LeBron, Harden and Davis and then a big dropoff after. They feel like the only 3 guys truly top 5 worthy.

I mean at worst Giannis still trumps any version of Draymond who you mentioned twice.

Why does Giannis "at worst" trump any version of Draymond?

[Doctor MJ]

OKC was a 43 win team by pythag last year. Adding George and losing depth they should have won how much? Especially given they lost a dpoy mid season? If golden state lost its best defender I would expect a drop too. They played well when he was on court. Their rotation issues with the bench were well documented and by far my biggest coaching issue with Donovan. I'm not seeing how Westbrook isn't capable of winning more when he did and the issue was when he was off court.

In short, no I don't expect a team spending $70+ mill on Westbrook, George, and Melo is going to amount to anything...but Westbrook apparently did, which is why he re-signed with OKC after Melo was acquired, whereas I'd have told them not to touch Melo and that I'd leave if they traded for him. The team had the star talent Westbrook though he needed to be a serious threat. He was wrong. He put himself in a position where being wrong pushed his team in a bad direction, and much like LeBron, this has to be factored in the evaluation imho.

Ah. And Butler wanting Crawford back to tank Minnesota's bench isn't something you held against him right?

dom, we went back and forth on this recently. I put a lot of effort into trying to communicate my own way of looking at things without telling you you were wrong for your beliefs. At one point I said "I don't know why I bother" which I regretted...but if after all that you bring it all up again with the same caricature strawmanning my beliefs, it surely seems like the time I spent with you was a waste.

I'm sorry I think a lot less of Westbrook than you do, but I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

The LeBron thing remains trickier because the entirety of the issue involves something that I think is important that others just don't, and despite the fact that I have no track record for rating LeBron lower than the crowd, me being critical of LeBron on that front has gotten me branded recently as a hater more than a decade after I first started talking about LeBron on these boards.

[bondom34]

In short, no I don't expect a team spending $70+ mill on Westbrook, George, and Melo is going to amount to anything...but Westbrook apparently did, which is why he re-signed with OKC after Melo was acquired, whereas I'd have told them not to touch Melo and that I'd leave if they traded for him. The team had the star talent Westbrook though he needed to be a serious threat. He was wrong. He put himself in a position where being wrong pushed his team in a bad direction, and much like LeBron, this has to be factored in the evaluation imho.

Ah. And Butler wanting Crawford back to tank Minnesota's bench isn't something you held against him right?

dom, we went back and forth on this recently. I put a lot of effort into trying to communicate my own way of looking at things without telling you you were wrong for your beliefs. At one point I said "I don't know why I bother" which I regretted...but if after all that you bring it all up again with the same caricature strawmanning my beliefs, it surely seems like the time I spent with you was a waste.

I'm sorry I think a lot less of Westbrook than you do, but I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

The LeBron thing remains trickier because the entirety of the issue involves something that I think is important that others just don't, and despite the fact that I have no track record for rating LeBron lower than the crowd, me being critical of LeBron on that front has gotten me branded recently as a hater more than a decade after I first started talking about LeBron on these boards.

I don't think Westbrook has a top 5 case at all this year either. I just find the shifting of blame interesting based on players you seem to like more than others in similar cases.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't disagree, I just think it's hard to know exactly how much of it is a credit to Boston and how much is just variance. It's likely a combination of both. I think Boston did disrupt their rhythm but it's not like Philly stopped getting makeable shots. I'm just wary of drawing too many conclusions on a guy like Embiid when the series is completely different if Reddick, Covington, Bellinelli shoot just a little closer to their averages. The games were close enough that if they had each made one more three over four games, we're talking about a completely different series.

And i'm not necessarily directing that at you, just the general tone of the internet that overreacts to a really close series in which shooting variance may have played a role (on both sides):

Spoiler:

I don't really disagree with you, but Embiid and Simmons just looked green out there. Things were stopping them that i don't expect will be able to keep stopping them in future years.

Couple things:

1) I think it is a very fair question whether Embiid will ever be the type of superstar that can play 40-44 minutes a playoff game fully intensity.

2) Simmons' jumpshot is a real question mark. People compare it to Giannis and LeBron but he shoots the ball like Drummond/Deandre/Dwight/Shaq.

There is a good chance both guys improve other aspects that it doesn't matter but compared to other elite players it really does feel like both of the Sixers guys have question marks as young players that are by no means certain to be erased.

I'm much less concerned with his endurance than with his potential fragility. If he stays healthy - which is a massive if of course - then I think he can get his body into peak shape. And of course that requires work and is no sure thing, but he's come far enough, I'd bet on his effort and attitude to be sufficient.

I think Simmons was the more concerning young buck in the Boston series. To me Boston's approach was built on the recognition that Simmons right now is such a problem off-ball that Philly can't actually let their offense run through their best scorer when Simmons is on the court if the opposing defense knows what it is doing. We wondered how big of an issue Simmons' shooting was, and in a context with 4 shooters around him if probably wouldn't be, but until Simmons can shoot better, the Embiid-Simmons on-court pairing has a glaring weakness.

So then we're just going to have to see how well Simmons can patch the holes in his game. If he comes back in November without any improvement, that's a real problem.

I'll also add:

I find myself chewing over Simmons vs Mitchell vs Tatum for ROY. I've basically seen Simmons as the clear choice all year, because I think he at his most effective of the bunch. But I don't think Boston's defense could have had the same effect on Mitchell or Tatum, and that gives me pause.

The ROY award is fascinating because to me it's the one with the least real rules. It's definitely not just the "Most Valuable Rookie" award, it's also not the "who could add the most in a championship context" award. The point of the award in any sport really is to get fans excited for future stars.

In a year then with 3 amazing rookies, I think it's worth asking who seems to have the brightest future ahead of them. Before the Boston series I'd have said Simmons. Now I'm curious what others have to say.

[Ambrose]

Anyone feel like this is a much weaker year than the last few?

2015 had Curry, LeBron, Paul, Davis, Harden and Westbrook, 6 guys for 5 spots.

2016 had LeBron, Curry, Durant, Westbrook, Kawhi, Draymond and Paul, 7 guys for 5 spots.

2017 had LeBron, Curry, Westbrook, Durant, Kawhi, Harden and Draymond, and possibly Paul too, 8 guys for 5 spots.

2018 has LeBron, Harden and Davis and then a big dropoff after. They feel like the only 3 guys truly top 5 worthy.

I mean at worst Giannis still trumps any version of Draymond who you mentioned twice.

Why does Giannis "at worst" trump any version of Draymond?

Because he's a better player?

[MisterHibachi]

The LeBron thing remains trickier because the entirety of the issue involves something that I think is important that others just don't, and despite the fact that I have no track record for rating LeBron lower than the crowd, me being critical of LeBron on that front has gotten me branded recently as a hater more than a decade after I first started talking about LeBron on these boards.

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/1542905

What do you think of this article with regards to LeBron's effect on team culture? Does it change you opinion, given it's straight from the people that know his daily influence best?

[Doctor MJ]

The LeBron thing remains trickier because the entirety of the issue involves something that I think is important that others just don't, and despite the fact that I have no track record for rating LeBron lower than the crowd, me being critical of LeBron on that front has gotten me branded recently as a hater more than a decade after I first started talking about LeBron on these boards.

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/1542905

What do you think of this article with regards to LeBron's effect on team culture? Does it change you opinion, given it's straight from the people that know his daily influence best?

I know that LeBron has that side of him and that puts him way above the Jordans and Kobes of the world because he's at least trying. This doesn't change the fact though that since his return the Cavs have been filled with internal turmoil. I don't see it as "They struggled despite LeBron's totally positive influence" so much as "Things are complicated, and despite LeBron trying some things to help, he's also done things that hurt."

The real point here isn't to vilify LeBron but to understand the context of the struggles of those around him. I'll add that I expect to see telltale signs of the "600 lb gorilla in the room" problem wherever I see such a clear cut star, whether it's on a basketball team, a company, or any other social dynamic. It's not that LeBron horrendously bad at interpersonal stuff, but when people start talking about his disappointing teammates, well, they are disappointing because in other contexts they have done better, and when we ask "so what's with the Cav context", any answer that doesn't focus on LeBron is silly. LeBron IS the context, and if he can't get the most out of the talents around him, that's relevant to the evaluation of his accomplishments.

But as I say, if LeBron's teams continue to win in the playoffs, the pragmatic impact of these issues is small. At this point I'll likely once again have a ranking for LeBron right in line with the norm. Where I differ is in the fact that I'll cut LeBron very little slack when if his team can't get it done when it matters because of the fact that his team has be shaped and re-shaped by the presence of LeBron.

[iggymcfrack]

Anyone feel like this is a much weaker year than the last few?

2015 had Curry, LeBron, Paul, Davis, Harden and Westbrook, 6 guys for 5 spots.

2016 had LeBron, Curry, Durant, Westbrook, Kawhi, Draymond and Paul, 7 guys for 5 spots.

2017 had LeBron, Curry, Westbrook, Durant, Kawhi, Harden and Draymond, and possibly Paul too, 8 guys for 5 spots.

2018 has LeBron, Harden and Davis and then a big dropoff after. They feel like the only 3 guys truly top 5 worthy.

I'd take Giannis this year over a bunch of those guys you mentioned. Also feel like even if this year's a little weak from 5 down, it's super strong at the top with Harden and Bron both putting up all-time seasons.

How is this an all team season from Lebron? He had a nice all time level first two rounds of the playoffs, but it wasn't a great season for him.

Because he was obviously just coasting through the regular season which he’s earned the right to do at age 33 to maximize his championship equity, and once the real season started, he’s having a Top 2 or 3 playoffs of all-time.

I’m much more inclined to weight the postseason heavier than the regular season with an older player like that who’s learned how to take his rest, and who has a track record of elevating his game in the playoffs year after year. Whereas if say Oladipo made the same jump in the playoffs, you’d have to take it with a small grain of salt that it might be a fluke.

Honestly though with the current format in the NBA, homecourt doesn’t mean that much and if he knew he didn’t have the team to catch Golden State or Houston for regular season record, isn’t it smart to pull back on the throttle a little bit and make sure you have enough for the games that matter? In the playoffs, he hasn’t just been better most of the time. He’s been better every single game. He hasn’t had one bad game the entire playoffs. I’d take this LeBron season over every Kobe, Bird, Magic, or Wilt season ever which is a really incredible thing to say about a 33 year old when you think about it.

[Reservoirdawgs]

Because he was obviously just coasting through the regular season which he’s earned the right to do at age 33 to maximize his championship equity, and once the real season started, he’s having a Top 2 or 3 playoffs of all-time.

He certainly has the right to coast through the regular season. He has earned it and his values are clearly a lot more different now (championship) than when he was younger. However, coasting is still coasting, and team awards are based off the regular season. I think it'd be silly if he didn't get a second or third team award, but I'm struggling to see why he should be first team based on him coasting through the season.

[iggymcfrack]

Because he was obviously just coasting through the regular season which he’s earned the right to do at age 33 to maximize his championship equity, and once the real season started, he’s having a Top 2 or 3 playoffs of all-time.

He certainly has the right to coast through the regular season. He has earned it and his values are clearly a lot more different now (championship) than when he was younger. However, coasting is still coasting, and team awards are based off the regular season. I think it'd be silly if he didn't get a second or third team award, but I'm struggling to see why he should be first team based on him coasting through the season.

The player of the year discussion in this thread is based on a combination of the regular season and postseason. I agree that for the regular season only, I’d have Giannis and AD as the first-team forwards.

[Missing Rings]

Because he was obviously just coasting through the regular season which he’s earned the right to do at age 33 to maximize his championship equity, and once the real season started, he’s having a Top 2 or 3 playoffs of all-time.

He certainly has the right to coast through the regular season. He has earned it and his values are clearly a lot more different now (championship) than when he was younger. However, coasting is still coasting, and team awards are based off the regular season. I think it'd be silly if he didn't get a second or third team award, but I'm struggling to see why he should be first team based on him coasting through the season.

LeBron should certainly be on the first team all-NBA. He finished 3rd in PER, 2nd in Offensive Win Shares, 2nd in total Win Shares, 2nd in BPM, and first in VORP. He was the best Forward in the regular season.

LeBron dragged a team that lacked talent and had an expected W/L record of 43-39 to 50 wins. The team had 18 different players start throughout the season and had 16 players average over 15 minutes per game while playing with Cleveland.

I feel like a lot of people are dismissing the massive lack of talent this team has outside of LeBron and an injured Kevin Love.

[dontcalltimeout]

I mean at worst Giannis still trumps any version of Draymond who you mentioned twice.

Why does Giannis "at worst" trump any version of Draymond?

Because he's a better player?

Hmm. Draymond is clearly the better defender, slightly better rebounder. On offense, Draymond is a way better passer, a better screener, and it's not like Giannis is giving you much spacing either.

[Ambrose]

Why does Giannis "at worst" trump any version of Draymond?

Because he's a better player?

Hmm. Draymond is clearly the better defender, slightly better rebounder. On offense, Draymond is a way better passer, a better screener, and it's not like Giannis is giving you much spacing either.

So Bucks would be better with Draymond and Warriors would be worse with Giannis?

[dontcalltimeout]

Because he's a better player?

Hmm. Draymond is clearly the better defender, slightly better rebounder. On offense, Draymond is a way better passer, a better screener, and it's not like Giannis is giving you much spacing either.

So Bucks would be better with Draymond and Warriors would be worse with Giannis?

No. Yes.

[Doctor MJ]

Ah. And Butler wanting Crawford back to tank Minnesota's bench isn't something you held against him right?

dom, we went back and forth on this recently. I put a lot of effort into trying to communicate my own way of looking at things without telling you you were wrong for your beliefs. At one point I said "I don't know why I bother" which I regretted...but if after all that you bring it all up again with the same caricature strawmanning my beliefs, it surely seems like the time I spent with you was a waste.

I'm sorry I think a lot less of Westbrook than you do, but I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

The LeBron thing remains trickier because the entirety of the issue involves something that I think is important that others just don't, and despite the fact that I have no track record for rating LeBron lower than the crowd, me being critical of LeBron on that front has gotten me branded recently as a hater more than a decade after I first started talking about LeBron on these boards.

I don't think Westbrook has a top 5 case at all this year either. I just find the shifting of blame interesting based on players you seem to like more than others in similar cases.

And as I've said, while I'm not refusing to consider putting similar blame on Butler as I talk about with LeBron & Russ, I find it hard to understand why you don't see where the analogy breaks down.

I mean, Crawford made 4 million dollars this year coming off the bench. That's a very different thing from the starpower and dollar figures involved in the other two situations. Saying those are precisely the same is like refusing to see the difference between a knife wound and a paper cut. I'll acknowledge that paper cuts can sting, but it should be no mystery why I'm focusing on the knife wound.

[bondom34]

dom, we went back and forth on this recently. I put a lot of effort into trying to communicate my own way of looking at things without telling you you were wrong for your beliefs. At one point I said "I don't know why I bother" which I regretted...but if after all that you bring it all up again with the same caricature strawmanning my beliefs, it surely seems like the time I spent with you was a waste.

I'm sorry I think a lot less of Westbrook than you do, but I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

The LeBron thing remains trickier because the entirety of the issue involves something that I think is important that others just don't, and despite the fact that I have no track record for rating LeBron lower than the crowd, me being critical of LeBron on that front has gotten me branded recently as a hater more than a decade after I first started talking about LeBron on these boards.

I don't think Westbrook has a top 5 case at all this year either. I just find the shifting of blame interesting based on players you seem to like more than others in similar cases.

And as I've said, while I'm not refusing to consider putting similar blame on Butler as I talk about with LeBron & Russ, I find it hard to understand why you don't see where the analogy breaks down.

I mean, Crawford made 4 million dollars this year coming off the bench. That's a very different thing from the starpower and dollar figures involved in the other two situations. Saying those are precisely the same is like refusing to see the difference between a knife wound and a paper cut. I'll acknowledge that paper cuts can sting, but it should be no mystery why I'm focusing on the knife wound.

When your death is by a thousand paper cuts it makes perfect sense. Minnesota is capped put and has an awful bench. Crawford not only plays too much his tax costs likely prevent them keeping more useful players. Its pretty inconsistent to think that a player making demands (and ftr though he supported it I never once heard word Westbrook demanded Melo be there) in one case is bad and in another is no issue when the player is having one of the most negative impacts on a team he could in Crawford's case.

Edited to add...Also pointed out the leap in SRS this season for okc despite missing a starter half the year. I think any rational person would think about 50 wins is right for that roster given a 43 win pythag a year ago.