Marvin Bagley

[Shady Franchise]

I can't quite remember how Miami ran their defense. But yes Kidd is a fantastic one to bring up. I brought this up a few times the last couple years on the Bucks board when watching their games. It made no sense a team that long and athletic was always so bad defensively until you watch them. They had that first year under him when it worked and also that was right when the 3pt shot started to get cranked up. Spread offenses became more of the norm and playing this defense where everyone is up in their guys jersey at all times and having Henson trying to hedge 25+ feet from the basket doesn't work now a days. Again that defense is so predicated on individual man defense over team defense. Works great against teams that don't spread you out and run a lot of PnR. But if you go against an offense predicated on spreading you out, it's game over. On second thoughts, ya just like the beat down the Spurs put on in Miami in the finals.

Exactly, the best defensive players can only do so much against the best offenses (which by nature spread everyone out). I just find it bizarre that people are saying Bagley doesn't have the dimensions to play center when the crunch-time 5s for this year's conference finalists are going to be Kevin Love, Al Horford, Clint Capela, and Draymond Green. None of those players were regarded as centers when they entered the league, and it's not like teams are going to shoot fewer three-pointers anytime soon.

When it comes to Bagley I can see him playing either the 5 or 4, it really just depends on what the team is looking for from their defense. Ive been talking about this on the Boston board but say they somehow traded up and had the choice to choose Bagley/Bamba. Its up to Ainge and Stevens on how they want their defense to look, do they want that rim protecting stud in the middle, if so they would go with Bamba. Or do they want this freakishly versatile lineup where 2-5 they could be looking at Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Bagley. Talk about the ability to switch and cover with that team. Or I can see him at the 4 say with the Knicks, have KP be that rim protector and have Bagley be the guy chasing the 4s around.

Could you see Bagley and Isaac or Gordon working together? Or perhaps all 3? With Gordon or Isaac being the rim protector and Bagley being the C on offense? I'm curious because there seems to be some disagreement on our board if the trio or duo could work for us.

[Duke4life831]

Exactly, the best defensive players can only do so much against the best offenses (which by nature spread everyone out). I just find it bizarre that people are saying Bagley doesn't have the dimensions to play center when the crunch-time 5s for this year's conference finalists are going to be Kevin Love, Al Horford, Clint Capela, and Draymond Green. None of those players were regarded as centers when they entered the league, and it's not like teams are going to shoot fewer three-pointers anytime soon.

When it comes to Bagley I can see him playing either the 5 or 4, it really just depends on what the team is looking for from their defense. Ive been talking about this on the Boston board but say they somehow traded up and had the choice to choose Bagley/Bamba. Its up to Ainge and Stevens on how they want their defense to look, do they want that rim protecting stud in the middle, if so they would go with Bamba. Or do they want this freakishly versatile lineup where 2-5 they could be looking at Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Bagley. Talk about the ability to switch and cover with that team. Or I can see him at the 4 say with the Knicks, have KP be that rim protector and have Bagley be the guy chasing the 4s around.

Could you see Bagley and Isaac or Gordon working together? Or perhaps all 3? With Gordon or Isaac being the rim protector and Bagley being the C on offense? I'm curious because there seems to be some disagreement on our board if the trio or duo could work for us.

Ya I threw my 10 cents in on your board about a week back on this topic. I personally dont see how all 3 work. AG made a big step forward this year, I dont think its a coincidence that they moved him back to the 4 this year. Honestly if Im ORL Id try AG at the 4 and Isaac at the 5 (Isaac isnt much smaller than a guy like Capella). You definitely need a bruiser on the bench for certain matchups though. I just dont think any of AG/Isaac/Bagley have the perimeter skills to be a 3. I can see AG/Bagley working or Isaac/Bagley working, just dont see all 3 working. Honestly I dont think this is the draft for ORL this year because of AG/Isaac. This is a big heavy draft at the top and if you take a big you will be moving AG to the 3 and I just dont think thats his position. If you guys move up in the lotto I can see grabbing Doncic. But if that doesnt happen I think you guys either move one of AG/Isaac or try to trade down and hopefully get a pick for next years draft that has potential to be a top 5 pick. Because next year's draft is far more guard/wing heavy.

[Shady Franchise]

When it comes to Bagley I can see him playing either the 5 or 4, it really just depends on what the team is looking for from their defense. Ive been talking about this on the Boston board but say they somehow traded up and had the choice to choose Bagley/Bamba. Its up to Ainge and Stevens on how they want their defense to look, do they want that rim protecting stud in the middle, if so they would go with Bamba. Or do they want this freakishly versatile lineup where 2-5 they could be looking at Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Bagley. Talk about the ability to switch and cover with that team. Or I can see him at the 4 say with the Knicks, have KP be that rim protector and have Bagley be the guy chasing the 4s around.

Could you see Bagley and Isaac or Gordon working together? Or perhaps all 3? With Gordon or Isaac being the rim protector and Bagley being the C on offense? I'm curious because there seems to be some disagreement on our board if the trio or duo could work for us.

Ya I threw my 10 cents in on your board about a week back on this topic. I personally dont see how all 3 work. AG made a big step forward this year, I dont think its a coincidence that they moved him back to the 4 this year. Honestly if Im ORL Id try AG at the 4 and Isaac at the 5 (Isaac isnt much smaller than a guy like Capella). You definitely need a bruiser on the bench for certain matchups though. I just dont think any of AG/Isaac/Bagley have the perimeter skills to be a 3. I can see AG/Bagley working or Isaac/Bagley working, just dont see all 3 working. Honestly I dont think this is the draft for ORL this year because of AG/Isaac. This is a big heavy draft at the top and if you take a big you will be moving AG to the 3 and I just dont think thats his position. If you guys move up in the lotto I can see grabbing Doncic. But if that doesnt happen I think you guys either move one of AG/Isaac or try to trade down and hopefully get a pick for next years draft that has potential to be a top 5 pick. Because next year's draft is far more guard/wing heavy.

My bad man! I didn't even look at your name before commenting. Sorry. Thanks for taking the time to reply, even though you did post on our board recently.

[Duke4life831]

Could you see Bagley and Isaac or Gordon working together? Or perhaps all 3? With Gordon or Isaac being the rim protector and Bagley being the C on offense? I'm curious because there seems to be some disagreement on our board if the trio or duo could work for us.

Ya I threw my 10 cents in on your board about a week back on this topic. I personally dont see how all 3 work. AG made a big step forward this year, I dont think its a coincidence that they moved him back to the 4 this year. Honestly if Im ORL Id try AG at the 4 and Isaac at the 5 (Isaac isnt much smaller than a guy like Capella). You definitely need a bruiser on the bench for certain matchups though. I just dont think any of AG/Isaac/Bagley have the perimeter skills to be a 3. I can see AG/Bagley working or Isaac/Bagley working, just dont see all 3 working. Honestly I dont think this is the draft for ORL this year because of AG/Isaac. This is a big heavy draft at the top and if you take a big you will be moving AG to the 3 and I just dont think thats his position. If you guys move up in the lotto I can see grabbing Doncic. But if that doesnt happen I think you guys either move one of AG/Isaac or try to trade down and hopefully get a pick for next years draft that has potential to be a top 5 pick. Because next year's draft is far more guard/wing heavy.

My bad man! I didn't even look at your name before commenting. Sorry. Thanks for taking the time to reply, even though you did post on our board recently.

Sorry if that came off snooty or anything, wasnt my intention at all. I was just saying to say it haha. I have no problem talking over and over again about prospects (espeially Duke guys haha).

[SeattleJazzFan]

like many on here, I'm lukewarm on Bagley. love his production, his motor, explosiveness, etc - but can't get past some of the weaknesses.

but man, as I was watching the Cavs last night, I couldn't help but think LeBron could turn him into monster with his ability to catch and finish as well as the ability and willingness to run the floor and finish. they'd still be effed defensively, but watching LeBron feed Bagley could be pretty special. no way he lasts until that 8 spot, so they would need some luck (and of course LeBron would have to stay in Cleveland), but its a fun and somewhat realistic thought.

[ItsThatEasy]

like many on here, I'm lukewarm on Bagley. love his production, his motor, explosiveness, etc - but can't get past some of the weaknesses.

but man, as I was watching the Cavs last night, I couldn't help but think LeBron could turn him into monster with his ability to catch and finish as well as the ability and willingness to run the floor and finish. they'd still be effed defensively, but watching LeBron feed Bagley could be pretty special. no way he lasts until that 8 spot, so they would need some luck (and of course LeBron would have to stay in Cleveland), but its a fun and somewhat realistic thought.

I spent this summer watching Bagley play with NBA talent in an NBA setting at the Drew League. He killed it all summer long just feeding off talented guys around him. He could contribute right now to this Cav's team, put him in TT's role and he's just as good if not better.

[nolang1]

like many on here, I'm lukewarm on Bagley. love his production, his motor, explosiveness, etc - but can't get past some of the weaknesses.

but man, as I was watching the Cavs last night, I couldn't help but think LeBron could turn him into monster with his ability to catch and finish as well as the ability and willingness to run the floor and finish. they'd still be effed defensively, but watching LeBron feed Bagley could be pretty special. no way he lasts until that 8 spot, so they would need some luck (and of course LeBron would have to stay in Cleveland), but its a fun and somewhat realistic thought.

Yes, Bagley could've scored 15 points a game playing the Tristan Thompson role this year. Thompson compares to Bagley in the same way Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf compares to Steph Curry; extremely similar outline in terms of strengths/weaknesses but Bagley/Curry are just better across the board.

[akhan786]

like many on here, I'm lukewarm on Bagley. love his production, his motor, explosiveness, etc - but can't get past some of the weaknesses.

but man, as I was watching the Cavs last night, I couldn't help but think LeBron could turn him into monster with his ability to catch and finish as well as the ability and willingness to run the floor and finish. they'd still be effed defensively, but watching LeBron feed Bagley could be pretty special. no way he lasts until that 8 spot, so they would need some luck (and of course LeBron would have to stay in Cleveland), but its a fun and somewhat realistic thought.

Yes, Bagley could've scored 15 points a game playing the Tristan Thompson role this year. Thompson compares to Bagley in the same way Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf compares to Steph Curry; extremely similar outline in terms of strengths/weaknesses but Bagley/Curry are just better across the board.

My evaluation is very similar to that.

I see him being a dominant garbage man that is near the top of the offensive rebounding charts in the league. Hits a long 2 or a 3 occasionally and is a versatile multi-position defender. Could also feast in transition with a young team. I'm suspicious of how much his shot will translate in the league, so I wonder if it will ever become an issue to keep him on the court in big moments at least in his first few years.

If he gets good coaching, he has the tools to be an Al Horford defensively (who is deceptively very athletic). To be maximized fully to an All-Star level, he would need to be in a pass-heavy offense where his role is to finish and not to create.

As a Celtics fan, I'd take that in a heart beat. But is that ^^^ player worth being in contention for a Top 2 pick? Or maybe I'm underestimating him and my eyes are playing tricks on me because of his wingspan and stiffness in the half-court. Maybe motor overcomes all of that?

[nolang1]

As a Celtics fan, I'd take that in a heart beat. But is that ^^^ player worth being in contention for a Top 2 pick? Or maybe I'm underestimating him and my eyes are playing tricks on me because of his wingspan and stiffness in the half-court. Maybe motor overcomes all of that?

That basically comes down to whether you think his rawness works for or against him. He played 2 seasons of high school basketball, didn't play on any USA youth national teams, and was on a joke AAU team that was just a way for Nike to legally pay him/his family. So this season was the first one in which you could say he got 'real' coaching, and in it he significantly improved his passing, perimeter game, and decision-making despite the increase in competition. You could say that's a promising first step or you could say that if someone doesn't have certain skills/instincts in place by age 19 they're not going to get much better.

My main thing with him on offense is that people see high scoring + relatively low assists and think he has some major adjustment to make as far as not dominating the ball, but he already does most of his damage by making good cuts, running the floor, offensive rebounds, and all that garbageman stuff; he's just able to get more out of those touches by being that much more athletic and better at finishing (plus if the defense is giving him a wide-open three or 15-footer he can make a decent amount of those, which obviously has never even been on the table for the Tristan Thompson/Clint Capela types). People are just implicitly assuming he's going to pull a Dwight Howard and demand post touches to the detriment of the team when that doesn't really seem to be in his nature. If it was, we'd probably have seen it at some point this season given Grayson Allen was 17-61 from 3 in Duke's losses (basically 2-8 on average), but that was never cause for Bagley to complain or slow down his motor.

Speaking of motor, I think too often we make it out to be this metaphysical quality (who wants it more?) that you can coach up when it's largely endurance/cardiovascular fitness. I can't think of too many other freshman bigs who had games in college where they played 38-40 minutes and were better in the last few minutes than they were early on. Bagley is clearly an outlier in that regard, which to me seems relevant in the midst of an NBA postseason where it's fair to wonder whether players like Embiid and Gobert are just a bit too big and slow to be as dominant against these teams that run 5-out offense.

[JPF]

First thing that impressed me about Bagley when I have seen him were his facial expressions and team communication. I thought to myself, damn this kid really wants it. Havent' read a lot of articles about him untill now and now that I do, I love the fact almost everyone else saw that same thing in him.

Is he worth picking 2nd? I don't honestly know. This draft class is kind of filled with promising bigs. In most other years, I'd say he is worth the 2nd pick.

[SeattleJazzFan]

First thing that impressed me about Bagley when I have seen him were his facial expressions and team communication. I thought to myself, damn this kid really wants it. Havent' read a lot of articles about him untill now and now that I do, I love the fact almost everyone else saw that same thing in him.

Is he worth picking 2nd? I don't honestly know. This draft class is kind of filled with promising bigs. In most other years, I'd say he is worth the 2nd pick.

yep. demeanor matters and is his pretty much impeccable. never gets too high or too low. just keeps attacking.

[ItsThatEasy]

Don't really understand why more isn't made of his Drew League performance.

I understand it's a pro-am league so those unfamiliar may not get it but The Drew is competitive as hell with current NBA players on pretty much every team, and they play at full speed, it's a really unique experience that maybe those outside of LA don't really get?

Regardless, I recommend everyone watch his Drew League tape because that's the exact role and setting he'll be in once he hits the league. He looked like an All-Star in the Capela role next to Harden this summer. He gave JaVale that work in the 2nd vid.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[Kolkmania]

I've been doing a lot of research on Bagley lately and I've come to the conclusion that I think if he had been paired up with sort of the typical Duke stretch 4 (Battier, Dunleavy, Deng, etc.) as opposed to Carter, we would be looking at him in a more positive light in general. I realize in some ways playing next to Carter had some benefits and that Carter proved to be a solid college 3 point shooter, but the overall spacing of playing a 4 out offense and him playing the rim protecting role he was accustomed to from high school, would have made him look better overall imo.

Defensively, he was top 3 in the EYBL in blocked shots both in 2016 (ahead of both Bamba and JJJ) and 2017 and every scouting report I saw basically gave good grades on his defense. I think learning a new position on top of learning a new defensive system and just the jump from high school to college created a dynamic where he suffered. When your learning a new system, until you know it second nature, it's common to be a step slow and worse than when you were basically just playing on instincts imo. Even in the NBA, it can take a half a season or more for a team to effectively incorporate a new defensive scheme and these guys are already pros. I think changing his position, just made the transition a little to much for him to be ready to be an impact defender.

I think his rebounding would look even more impressive as he would naturally be in better position to rebound especially after they made the switch to zone where it seemed like he often ended up out of rebounding position due to his defensive responsibilities. Plus, he wouldn't be sharing rebounds with another big time rebounder.

Offensively, even though Carter developed a decent 3 point shot, a lot of the time the paint just looked crowded. The extra spacing of a more natural perimeter player would have helped Bagley quite a bit imo. Also, I think Bagley would have looked better playing against other teams centers where he could have utilized his quickness more (obviously, there were also times it benefited him posting up a smaller guy).

But to be fair, a lot of the top guys weren't exactly in perfect situations to show their game. Ayton playing the 4 as well; Bamba having so little shooting on his team; JJJ playing with a couple guys who were probably best suited to being bigs in college.

The main point of this post though, is that I think in a different scenario Bagley's defense might have looked a lot better.

Here's the thing with defense and Duke. K's man defense is out dated and it just sucks if Im being blunt. Over the last 6 seasons (not including this past one) Duke's defense has been ranked 79th or worse 3 times and top 25 just once. Now this past season Duke's defense I believe hit mid 80s, that is when K switched to zone and it ended up 9th. It's an outdated scheme and it just makes the players look bad, just look at Tatum last year. Everywhere pre draft I saw how much Tatum was a poor defender, but look at him this year, defense is one of his strengths. Tyus Jones was a horrific defender at Duke and now is a very good defender just a couple years in the league.

Basically my point is you watch one game of Duke trying to play man defense and it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads chopped off. This is why last year I focused a lot more on just footwork and awareness when watching Tatum and all season long when he was at Duke I kept saying how good of a defender he was. This past year with this Duke team, same thing with Bagley. When they were still playing man, Carter was getting exposed left and right, Trent had no clue how to play team defense, Grayson couldnt keep his man in front of him to save his life. The whole time playing man I thought Bagley and Duval were the best defenders. I think Bagley is going to surprise a lot of people with his ability to switch and guard out on the perimeter. No doubt his rim protection was disappointing this year, but he was playing a lot out on the perimeter so he didnt get as many chances and the man defense was really focused on trying to funnel everything towards Carter (stupid idea). Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.

I do think that Bagley's feet are better than he showed this year, but his technique isn't good at this point. You can see in the clip above when he's defending 7 footer McGee that he opens up way too quick, providing driving lanes. NBA coaching will learn him a ton though.

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

[Duke4life831]

I've been doing a lot of research on Bagley lately and I've come to the conclusion that I think if he had been paired up with sort of the typical Duke stretch 4 (Battier, Dunleavy, Deng, etc.) as opposed to Carter, we would be looking at him in a more positive light in general. I realize in some ways playing next to Carter had some benefits and that Carter proved to be a solid college 3 point shooter, but the overall spacing of playing a 4 out offense and him playing the rim protecting role he was accustomed to from high school, would have made him look better overall imo.

Defensively, he was top 3 in the EYBL in blocked shots both in 2016 (ahead of both Bamba and JJJ) and 2017 and every scouting report I saw basically gave good grades on his defense. I think learning a new position on top of learning a new defensive system and just the jump from high school to college created a dynamic where he suffered. When your learning a new system, until you know it second nature, it's common to be a step slow and worse than when you were basically just playing on instincts imo. Even in the NBA, it can take a half a season or more for a team to effectively incorporate a new defensive scheme and these guys are already pros. I think changing his position, just made the transition a little to much for him to be ready to be an impact defender.

I think his rebounding would look even more impressive as he would naturally be in better position to rebound especially after they made the switch to zone where it seemed like he often ended up out of rebounding position due to his defensive responsibilities. Plus, he wouldn't be sharing rebounds with another big time rebounder.

Offensively, even though Carter developed a decent 3 point shot, a lot of the time the paint just looked crowded. The extra spacing of a more natural perimeter player would have helped Bagley quite a bit imo. Also, I think Bagley would have looked better playing against other teams centers where he could have utilized his quickness more (obviously, there were also times it benefited him posting up a smaller guy).

But to be fair, a lot of the top guys weren't exactly in perfect situations to show their game. Ayton playing the 4 as well; Bamba having so little shooting on his team; JJJ playing with a couple guys who were probably best suited to being bigs in college.

The main point of this post though, is that I think in a different scenario Bagley's defense might have looked a lot better.

Here's the thing with defense and Duke. K's man defense is out dated and it just sucks if Im being blunt. Over the last 6 seasons (not including this past one) Duke's defense has been ranked 79th or worse 3 times and top 25 just once. Now this past season Duke's defense I believe hit mid 80s, that is when K switched to zone and it ended up 9th. It's an outdated scheme and it just makes the players look bad, just look at Tatum last year. Everywhere pre draft I saw how much Tatum was a poor defender, but look at him this year, defense is one of his strengths. Tyus Jones was a horrific defender at Duke and now is a very good defender just a couple years in the league.

Basically my point is you watch one game of Duke trying to play man defense and it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads chopped off. This is why last year I focused a lot more on just footwork and awareness when watching Tatum and all season long when he was at Duke I kept saying how good of a defender he was. This past year with this Duke team, same thing with Bagley. When they were still playing man, Carter was getting exposed left and right, Trent had no clue how to play team defense, Grayson couldnt keep his man in front of him to save his life. The whole time playing man I thought Bagley and Duval were the best defenders. I think Bagley is going to surprise a lot of people with his ability to switch and guard out on the perimeter. No doubt his rim protection was disappointing this year, but he was playing a lot out on the perimeter so he didnt get as many chances and the man defense was really focused on trying to funnel everything towards Carter (stupid idea). Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.

I do think that Bagley's feet are better than he showed this year, but his technique isn't good at this point. You can see in the clip above when he's defending 7 footer McGee that he opens up way too quick, providing driving lanes. NBA coaching will learn him a ton though.

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

I definitely think he can improve technique wise defensively. And again I find it very hard to judge a players awareness while playing man defense for K. Again to me the majority of the time it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads cut off. He definitely had lapses for sure, but I didnt think he was a bad defender for a freshman. If I were to rank Duke's best defenders in man it wouldve been

1. Duval
2. Bagley
3. Grayon
4. Trent
5. Carter

I thought he moved his feet very well, and was solid on his rotations (again had his lapses and missed rotations). A lot of the time it was Bagley trying to cover his man then running over to help Carter who missed a rotation. This is one of the things I dont get, Carter was by far the worse defender in man, but I think people see a high DBPM and blocks and think that he was a stud defender. It was Carter who got benched multiple times throughout the year for his defense, not Bagley.

And I want to always clarify this when I defend Bagley's defense. I am in no way saying I think hes going to be an elite defender. I dont think hes ever going to be considered a DPOY or considered for an all defense team. But I think in today's game of versatility and switching, I think he will be a good defender. He wont hurt you defensively, you wont have to sub him out late in game on offensive and defensive subs. He's going to be a solid defender that can guard out on the perimeter really well for his size.

[nolang1]

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

Bagley was 83rd percentile in isolation defense
Bagley was 96th percentile in post-up defense (limited possessions)
Duke was 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency
Duke was 1st in the country in opposing free throw rate

A lot of people set their opinion when Duke was ranked 80th or whatever in defense and never got around to changing it. Also people severely underrate the importance of not fouling, especially as it relates to basketball IQ: if you're bigger and more athletic than the competition, bailing them out by fouling (and getting yourself taken out of the game in the process) is an even bigger mental lapse than it would be otherwise.

[Duke4life831]

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

Bagley was 83rd percentile in isolation defense
Bagley was 96th percentile in post-up defense (limited possessions)
Duke was 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency
Duke was 1st in the country in opposing free throw rate

A lot of people set their opinion when Duke was ranked 80th or whatever in defense and never got around to changing it. Also people severely underrate the importance of not fouling, especially as it relates to basketball IQ: if you're bigger and more athletic than the competition, bailing them out by fouling (and getting yourself taken out of the game in the process) is an even bigger mental lapse than it would be otherwise.

I just find this very similar to the Tatum defense talk last year. Duke had a horrible defense that made everyone look bad, Tatum wasnt seen as a great athlete, find some lowlights of him getting blown by and missing a rotation and boom, Tatum was painted as a poor defensive player and it stuck.

With Bagley same thing, when they were in man it was a poor defense that everyone looked bad in, lowlights of some of his defensive plays getting blown by or the St Johns game where everyone played horrible (especially Bagley). Add in the fact he's a big not getting blocks and hes a poor defender. He wasnt great in the zone defense but that was him playing out on the perimeter in zone for the first time of his life and its not like hes going to be asked to play zone in the NBA. Plus Duke's defensive rating continued to climb when Bagley returned from his injury.

I think the weirdest thing for me is sitting back and kind of seeing Carter get the pass defensively, while Bagley doesnt. My guess is because of the blocks, but again Carter was the one getting benched for defense, not Bagley. I dont think too many Duke fans would argue that Bagley was the far superior defensive player in zone vs Carter. I said all last year I thought people would be surprised with Tatum's defense in the NBA. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised with Bagley's ability to switch and guard out on the perimeter. I also think some are going to be highly disapointed with Carter's defense.

[nolang1]

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

Bagley was 83rd percentile in isolation defense
Bagley was 96th percentile in post-up defense (limited possessions)
Duke was 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency
Duke was 1st in the country in opposing free throw rate

A lot of people set their opinion when Duke was ranked 80th or whatever in defense and never got around to changing it. Also people severely underrate the importance of not fouling, especially as it relates to basketball IQ: if you're bigger and more athletic than the competition, bailing them out by fouling (and getting yourself taken out of the game in the process) is an even bigger mental lapse than it would be otherwise.

I just find this very similar to the Tatum defense talk last year. Duke had a horrible defense that made everyone look bad, Tatum wasnt seen as a great athlete, find some lowlights of him getting blown by and missing a rotation and boom, Tatum was painted as a poor defensive player and it stuck.

I agree 100% with this. If Bagley ended up on the Celtics you'd see a similar amount of "whoa where was this defensive ability at Duke?!" Of course this also goes the other way where if Jayson Tatum were on the Suns he wouldn't look that impressive on defense, but you shouldn't be drafting either player with the hopes that they'll singlehandedly transform a crappy defensive team into a good one. In college DPBM and blocks are just about one and the same. From that point every freshman player is bound to make some dumb mistakes, so it's easy to find GIFs that validate why a freshman with a lower-than-expected DBPM is actually a horrible defender.

I think the weirdest thing for me is sitting back and kind of seeing Carter get the pass defensively, while Bagley doesnt. My guess is because of the blocks, but again Carter was the one getting benched for defense, not Bagley.

Yes, this is the DBPM formula at work, which is just copy/pasted from the NBA's formula. The main issue is that it's obviously easier to rack up huge block rates in college (as in Carter is blocking shots at a higher rate than Rudy Gobert, and guys like Bamba and Jaren Jackson are significantly better than that). There's also an interaction term between assists and rebounds that leads to players like Jokic and Russell Westbrook being overrated on defense, and I've mentioned before that Carter's assists are inflated by playing alongside an elite finisher in Bagley (as in Bagley makes as many good big-to-big passes but they're more likely to lead to Carter being fouled or missing the shot) while Bagley's assists are deflated because teams basically had to faceguard him to keep him off the offensive glass. Lastly, the interaction between Carter and Bagley masks how elite of a rebounder Bagley is: he got 11 rebounds per game as a freshman in the ACC despite spending most of his time on defense guarding three-point shooters or playing on the wing in a 2-3 zone. Bagley is pretty much the polar opposite of someone like Westbrook who gets stat-padding rebounds; once he sees a teammate is going to get the rebound he's booking it upcourt rather than trying to steal it for himself.

[Kolkmania]

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

Bagley was 83rd percentile in isolation defense
Bagley was 96th percentile in post-up defense (limited possessions)
Duke was 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency
Duke was 1st in the country in opposing free throw rate

A lot of people set their opinion when Duke was ranked 80th or whatever in defense and never got around to changing it. Also people severely underrate the importance of not fouling, especially as it relates to basketball IQ: if you're bigger and more athletic than the competition, bailing them out by fouling (and getting yourself taken out of the game in the process) is an even bigger mental lapse than it would be otherwise.

You do know that the first two are examples of one-on-one defense right? I already said that Bagley is quite good at that category. Sure having a low fouling rate is beneficial, but the number is also low because he didn't provide as much rim protection and therefore less contact down low. Whenever I saw the kid play in EYBL he tried to block every single shot, so it might be a product of Duke's defense.

[Kolkmania]

Here's the thing with defense and Duke. K's man defense is out dated and it just sucks if Im being blunt. Over the last 6 seasons (not including this past one) Duke's defense has been ranked 79th or worse 3 times and top 25 just once. Now this past season Duke's defense I believe hit mid 80s, that is when K switched to zone and it ended up 9th. It's an outdated scheme and it just makes the players look bad, just look at Tatum last year. Everywhere pre draft I saw how much Tatum was a poor defender, but look at him this year, defense is one of his strengths. Tyus Jones was a horrific defender at Duke and now is a very good defender just a couple years in the league.

Basically my point is you watch one game of Duke trying to play man defense and it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads chopped off. This is why last year I focused a lot more on just footwork and awareness when watching Tatum and all season long when he was at Duke I kept saying how good of a defender he was. This past year with this Duke team, same thing with Bagley. When they were still playing man, Carter was getting exposed left and right, Trent had no clue how to play team defense, Grayson couldnt keep his man in front of him to save his life. The whole time playing man I thought Bagley and Duval were the best defenders. I think Bagley is going to surprise a lot of people with his ability to switch and guard out on the perimeter. No doubt his rim protection was disappointing this year, but he was playing a lot out on the perimeter so he didnt get as many chances and the man defense was really focused on trying to funnel everything towards Carter (stupid idea). Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.

I do think that Bagley's feet are better than he showed this year, but his technique isn't good at this point. You can see in the clip above when he's defending 7 footer McGee that he opens up way too quick, providing driving lanes. NBA coaching will learn him a ton though.

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.

I definitely think he can improve technique wise defensively. And again I find it very hard to judge a players awareness while playing man defense for K. Again to me the majority of the time it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads cut off. He definitely had lapses for sure, but I didnt think he was a bad defender for a freshman. If I were to rank Duke's best defenders in man it wouldve been

1. Duval
2. Bagley
3. Grayon
4. Trent
5. Carter

I thought he moved his feet very well, and was solid on his rotations (again had his lapses and missed rotations). A lot of the time it was Bagley trying to cover his man then running over to help Carter who missed a rotation. This is one of the things I dont get, Carter was by far the worse defender in man, but I think people see a high DBPM and blocks and think that he was a stud defender. It was Carter who got benched multiple times throughout the year for his defense, not Bagley.

And I want to always clarify this when I defend Bagley's defense. I am in no way saying I think hes going to be an elite defender. I dont think hes ever going to be considered a DPOY or considered for an all defense team. But I think in today's game of versatility and switching, I think he will be a good defender. He wont hurt you defensively, you wont have to sub him out late in game on offensive and defensive subs. He's going to be a solid defender that can guard out on the perimeter really well for his size.

I agree with you for the most part, in the right scheme I do think he could be a valuable defender. Can you tell some games this year where Bagley's switchability was on full display?

[homecourtloss]

He’s going to be the best player in the draft ten years down the line, this is the kid you build a franchise around. Take note Atlanta and Dallas

Better chance he’s a bust than the best player in the draft in 10 years, you don’t build franchises around a big with poor defensive instincts.