'17-'18 POY discussion

[Dr Spaceman]

Ok this is ridiculous, basketball needs to start again. These dudes have rested enough

Lol this was my thought too. Three days is seriously pushing it. Give me playoffs

[Krodis]

If Andre Roberson is considered a guard, would I be crazy for saying he should be 1st team all defense even missing half the season? I can't think of another guard who was even half the defender he was this year.

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[dhsilv2]

Unless you're a Lebron James or Larry Bird type basketball savant, you can't singlehandedly turn a sub-30 win team into a contender. Without Giannis this year, Bucks would have been in the tanking race.

All I meant is many people tend to have a winning bias; when Giannis is on a team that can contend and wins his stock will rise although he's already a great player, people just can't see it because he's not winning much. Forget Green, who's so obviously inferior the discussion is a non-starter: If you replace KD with Giannis, GSW would still win the championship anyway (and Durant would hardly do better with the Bucks) and Giannis would be getting best player in the league talk. But since the Bucks aren't great, people will assign their R1 loss to him although he was easily the best player in that series + the only reason the Bucks were even in the playoffs to begin with.

I don't think anyone is thinking what you're saying about Giannis, we all know he's a star. You're clearing missing the Green is an all time great player at his best. There are people here who absolutely know basketball and would debate Green as having had a top 20 all time peak, while that's a bit high imo, I'd still have his peak as a top 50 all time peak.

Wait - who? I mean, Green's been great and peak Green vs Giannis is a legitimate comp IMO, but top 20 peak great? Nah.

I won't call people out, but I've seen it said rather recently, clearly I don't agree, but given how unique his skillset is I can understand the idea.

[Texas Chuck]

I don't think anyone is thinking what you're saying about Giannis, we all know he's a star. You're clearing missing the Green is an all time great player at his best. There are people here who absolutely know basketball and would debate Green as having had a top 20 all time peak, while that's a bit high imo, I'd still have his peak as a top 50 all time peak.

Wait - who? I mean, Green's been great and peak Green vs Giannis is a legitimate comp IMO, but top 20 peak great? Nah.

I won't call people out, but I've seen it said rather recently, clearly I don't agree, but given how unique his skillset is I can understand the idea.

There was definitely some of this talk on the board a year ago in regards to Draymond. His +/- numbers were all-time best and with enough sample size apart from Steph where people were definitely talking about him in some lofty historical terms.

I'm a huge fan of his game and think he's really freaking good. And I only take into consideration a player's actual career rather than trying to imagine him in different circumstances as I'm personally more interested in what's real and not what's my conjecture. But those who feel like that's an important part of context would almost certainly raise questions about whether he could have that type of "impact" anywhere else.


I think if this Warriors team keeps this up another 3-4 years as expected, we are going to have to start asking ourselves how do we dole out credit for what is clearly one of the GOAT teams ever. And put me down as one who doesn't think it's all about Steph.

[clyde21]

If Andre Roberson is considered a guard, would I be crazy for saying he should be 1st team all defense even missing half the season? I can't think of another guard who was even half the defender he was this year.

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Holiday and Oladipo were both awesome defensively the entire year.

But I agree, Roberson might be the best inch for inch defender in the entire league. You could see the impact he had on the Thunder team as soon as he got injured.

[bondom34]

It sounds like the coaches submitted a single vote for COY, not a 1-3 or 1-5 type ballot. Maybe part of this is that Casey was the runaway winner with a handful of other guys getting votes, and if they'd had a 1-3 or 1-5 ballot, Stevens would have been second on a lot of ballots and been top 5 on most.

I heard someone -- Zach Lowe? Tom Haberstroh? -- talk about the voting for 2015 finals MVP. Some people made a deal afterward that Curry didn't get any votes, but apparently multiple people who voted for LeBron said that if they'd voted for a Warrior, they would've voted for Curry, but because they only submitted one name, Curry got nothing. Wonder if this is the same type of thing here.

Either that, or mild-mannered Brad Stevens has done something amazing to piss off a lot of coaches.

They did that in 2015 to stop lebron from winning finals co-mvp. It’s a sham for the voters to conspire like that. I be;ive voting was going to be 4-4-3 win curry getting 3. Curry voters switched to Iggy.

Can you link to a source? This sounds like a conspiracy theory.

Just thought of this conversation. Was listening to the Hangtime podcast w/ Sekou Smith and about 10 minutes in one of the guys said he talked w/ a coach who flat out said Stevens isn't really liked by a lot of coaches it seems. Jealousy. Pretty crazy. Obviously didn't say which coach said it but still.

[The High Cyde]

They did that in 2015 to stop lebron from winning finals co-mvp. It’s a sham for the voters to conspire like that. I be;ive voting was going to be 4-4-3 win curry getting 3. Curry voters switched to Iggy.

Can you link to a source? This sounds like a conspiracy theory.

Just thought of this conversation. Was listening to the Hangtime podcast w/ Sekou Smith and about 10 minutes in one of the guys said he talked w/ a coach who flat out said Stevens isn't really liked by a lot of coaches it seems. Jealousy. Pretty crazy. Obviously didn't say which coach said it but still.

They hate him cause they ain't as smart as him. That happens in all professions and walks in life. Pretty clear cut.

[iggymcfrack]

I’m pretty high on Draymond, but top 20 all-time peak is crazy. Kawhi Leonard’s barely top 20 and he gives you 90% of Green’s defense while being one of the best offensive players in the league. Alonzo Mourning’s probably outside the Top 20 and he’s better than Draymond on both ends of the floor. Pippen’s also someone that’s better than Draymond on both ends and is generally considered outside the Top 20 for peak value. I mean, even if you don’t include any one-way offensive players in the Top 20 (Magic, Bird, Kobe, Curry), Draymond still wouldn’t crack the Top 20 and it’s a pretty tough argument to say Draymond’s a better player than Steph.

[iggymcfrack]

MJ, LeBron, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, D-Rob, Timmy, KG, Wilt, Russell, CP3, Kawhi, Pippen, Dwight, Zo, Dikembe, Big Ben, Ewing, Anthony Davis all elite defenders that are clearly better than Dray. Add in a few elite offensive players (Magic, Bird, Kobe, Oscar, Harden, Wade and West) and he’s outside Top 25 for sure. Which 7 players from that list would you put behind Draymond Green?

[dhsilv2]

I’m pretty high on Draymond, but top 20 all-time peak is crazy. Kawhi Leonard’s barely top 20 and he gives you 90% of Green’s defense while being one of the best offensive players in the league. Alonzo Mourning’s probably outside the Top 20 and he’s better than Draymond on both ends of the floor. Pippen’s also someone that’s better than Draymond on both ends and is generally considered outside the Top 20 for peak value. I mean, even if you don’t include any one-way offensive players in the Top 20 (Magic, Bird, Kobe, Curry), Draymond still wouldn’t crack the Top 20 and it’s a pretty tough argument to say Draymond’s a better player than Steph.

I don't see a case that peak leonard was 90% as good as dray defensively. Especially if you're looking at 17 Leonard where imo he was a lot better than RAPM says but he was still not much more than just an above average defender. As for Zo, do you consider scoring more valuable than passing? At least for me passing I have grown to see more and more is far more valuable and unique, especially from a big man.

Keep in mind in 16 Dray was second in the league in RPM and he lead the league in WINS. He was 9th in VORP and 10th in WS so even conventional box score metrics thought really highly of him despite his game not lending itself to getting noticed by those types of metrics.

Again, I'm not arguing he had a top 20 peak, but I don't see why it's difficult to see why people thought so. He shot really well in 16 from 3. He was the heart of the team. He provided elite defense.
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1404723

Looking at the list that was done, I'd not be offended at moving dray over 14 KD or 90 Ewing (though I think both are out of place and too high there). Odds are I'd see him more like a step above 15 AD and a bit behind 09 or 11 Howard.

MJ, LeBron, Shaq, Hakeem, Kareem, D-Rob, Timmy, KG, Wilt, Russell, CP3, Kawhi, Pippen, Dwight, Zo, Dikembe, Big Ben, Ewing, Anthony Davis all elite defenders that are clearly better than Dray. Add in a few elite offensive players (Magic, Bird, Kobe, Oscar, Harden, Wade and West) and he’s outside Top 25 for sure. Which 7 players from that list would you put behind Draymond Green?

Once again I'm not debating he's top 20. Though i did highlight two players who's offensive ability is so so so far below dray's that there's no case I can see to have them ahead of him and I'll just say I think Zo is overrated and I'll take Dray. Also why is AD with the defensive group and not offensive group? AD's value is offense.

Though I guess the better question is, do you have Giannis last year over a number of these players?

[Clyde Frazier]

Required reading: ElGee's Warriors Rockets preview

http://www.backpicks.com/2018/05/12/the-battle-of-the-titans-rockets-warriors-2018-wcf-preview/

Really wish game 1 had been last night. Getting antsy!

[dontcalltimeout]

:nopp

Required reading: ElGee's Warriors Rockets preview

http://www.backpicks.com/2018/05/12/the-battle-of-the-titans-rockets-warriors-2018-wcf-preview/

Really wish game was had been last night. Getting antsy!

From the article:

I want to recognize Green here, who displays uncanny anticipation and spectacular recoveries on a regular basis. He’s one of the top-15 defenders in NBA history and a huge part of what makes Golden State worthy of the Hamptons.

[laika]

Regardless of how one feels about Giannis vs peak Green, I think Giannis is a clear top 5 player this year though.

I also would just bet on talent and take this year's Giannis over any version of Green. It's hard to replace what Green provides GS, just like it's hard to replace what Horford does for Boston. I mean, you could make that kind of argument for A LOT of players, even LeBron. In fact, GS fans HAVE made that argument against LeBron, and if he would be able to actually improve them if he replaced Green and all that he provides.

To me, you have a stud player like Giannis that doesn't look like fool's gold by any metric we have available, and he doesn't play a dumb style of basketball, and actually seems to be a really humble, hard-working, willing-to-do-whatever-it-takes kind of player, so I would just trust what I see and take him over someone like Green, even though Green is great in his own right.

I don't think he is. Giannis had very little impact in the playoffs and that counts for a lot.

My current top 7-
1.Curry
2.Harden
3.Lebron
4.Oladipo
5.Davis
6.Paul
7.Giannis

Durant and Horford could still pass him. I'll reevaluate at the end of the year but I think you can make a very defensible case for Giannis not finishing in the top 5.

[NinjaSheppard]

Regardless of how one feels about Giannis vs peak Green, I think Giannis is a clear top 5 player this year though.

I also would just bet on talent and take this year's Giannis over any version of Green. It's hard to replace what Green provides GS, just like it's hard to replace what Horford does for Boston. I mean, you could make that kind of argument for A LOT of players, even LeBron. In fact, GS fans HAVE made that argument against LeBron, and if he would be able to actually improve them if he replaced Green and all that he provides.

To me, you have a stud player like Giannis that doesn't look like fool's gold by any metric we have available, and he doesn't play a dumb style of basketball, and actually seems to be a really humble, hard-working, willing-to-do-whatever-it-takes kind of player, so I would just trust what I see and take him over someone like Green, even though Green is great in his own right.

I don't think he is. Giannis had very little impact in the playoffs and that counts for a lot.

My current top 7-
1.Curry
2.Harden
3.Lebron
4.Oladipo
5.Davis
6.Paul
7.Giannis

Durant and Horford could still pass him. I'll reevaluate at the end of the year but I think you can make a very defensible case for Giannis not finishing in the top 5.

I don't see how you can possibly criticize Giannis' playoff impact and then put a guy who missed the first 6 playoff games at number 1.

[iggymcfrack]

Regardless of how one feels about Giannis vs peak Green, I think Giannis is a clear top 5 player this year though.

I also would just bet on talent and take this year's Giannis over any version of Green. It's hard to replace what Green provides GS, just like it's hard to replace what Horford does for Boston. I mean, you could make that kind of argument for A LOT of players, even LeBron. In fact, GS fans HAVE made that argument against LeBron, and if he would be able to actually improve them if he replaced Green and all that he provides.

To me, you have a stud player like Giannis that doesn't look like fool's gold by any metric we have available, and he doesn't play a dumb style of basketball, and actually seems to be a really humble, hard-working, willing-to-do-whatever-it-takes kind of player, so I would just trust what I see and take him over someone like Green, even though Green is great in his own right.

I don't think he is. Giannis had very little impact in the playoffs and that counts for a lot.

My current top 7-
1.Curry
2.Harden
3.Lebron
4.Oladipo
5.Davis
6.Paul
7.Giannis

Durant and Horford could still pass him. I'll reevaluate at the end of the year but I think you can make a very defensible case for Giannis not finishing in the top 5.

What was wrong with his playoff impact? He put up a 26.5 PER on .620 TS% against arguably the best defense in the league and won 3 games against what looks likely to be the Eastern conference champs right now including a game-winning tip-in. What did Oladipo or Curry do that he didn’t?

[laika]

Regardless of how one feels about Giannis vs peak Green, I think Giannis is a clear top 5 player this year though.

I also would just bet on talent and take this year's Giannis over any version of Green. It's hard to replace what Green provides GS, just like it's hard to replace what Horford does for Boston. I mean, you could make that kind of argument for A LOT of players, even LeBron. In fact, GS fans HAVE made that argument against LeBron, and if he would be able to actually improve them if he replaced Green and all that he provides.

To me, you have a stud player like Giannis that doesn't look like fool's gold by any metric we have available, and he doesn't play a dumb style of basketball, and actually seems to be a really humble, hard-working, willing-to-do-whatever-it-takes kind of player, so I would just trust what I see and take him over someone like Green, even though Green is great in his own right.

I don't think he is. Giannis had very little impact in the playoffs and that counts for a lot.

My current top 7-
1.Curry
2.Harden
3.Lebron
4.Oladipo
5.Davis
6.Paul
7.Giannis

Durant and Horford could still pass him. I'll reevaluate at the end of the year but I think you can make a very defensible case for Giannis not finishing in the top 5.

What was wrong with his playoff impact? He put up a 26.5 PER on .620 TS% against arguably the best defense in the league and won 3 games against what looks likely to be the Eastern conference champs right now including a game-winning tip-in. What did Oladipo or Curry do that he didn’t?

Here is the playoff On/Off so far-

------------Min----On-----Off-----On/Off

Curry------125--16.9--+5.8------11.1
Harden---354--14.5----4.9------19.4
Lebron---491--(-.5)----2.1-------1.6
Oladipo--261--10.3---10.2------20.5
Davis------358---1.2---10.4------11.6
Paul-------333--11.8---+3.9-------7.9
Giannis---280-(-1.9)---5.5---neg7.4
Durant---368--10.9---+1.3-------9.6
Green----374--11.9--- 2.7------14.6


Curry has played the least minutes this year but he is way ahead on impact stats. These rankings are based on my predictions of what is most likely- Curry leads the Warriors to the title, Durant/Green are significantly less valuable and that the East gets dominated in the finals. If the Warriors lose then obviously Curry isn't going to finish #1. Also, the Spurs were an unusually weak playoff team. It's not much of a minus if Curry leads the Warriors to playoff wins against by far the three toughest playoff opponents they faced. As for missing regular season games, the regular season accounts for only half of my rankings at most. Curry is far enough ahead on a per minute basis that he could still beat out everyone even with a demerit for missing regular season games that history barely even notices.
The Pacers easily beat the Cavs when Oladipo was in. The Bucks lost when Giannis was in. If the Celtics are competitive going forward then that might be enough to let Giannis slightly edge Oladipo. But Oladipo has had better impact stats all year so that still probably won't be enough.

[Krodis]

I don't know, I think Curry has missed way too much time to be a serious consideration at #1. He missed 31 games in the regular season, which took them out of the running for the 1 seed, and he missed an entire playoff round. You would have to think the gap between him and the next best per minute player was ENORMOUS to justify him at #1.

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[yoyoboy]

I don't think he is. Giannis had very little impact in the playoffs and that counts for a lot.

My current top 7-
1.Curry
2.Harden
3.Lebron
4.Oladipo
5.Davis
6.Paul
7.Giannis

Durant and Horford could still pass him. I'll reevaluate at the end of the year but I think you can make a very defensible case for Giannis not finishing in the top 5.

What was wrong with his playoff impact? He put up a 26.5 PER on .620 TS% against arguably the best defense in the league and won 3 games against what looks likely to be the Eastern conference champs right now including a game-winning tip-in. What did Oladipo or Curry do that he didn’t?

Here is the playoff On/Off so far-

------------Min----On-----Off-----On/Off

Curry------125--16.9--+5.8------11.1
Harden---354--14.5----4.9------19.4
Lebron---491--(-.5)----2.1-------1.6
Oladipo--261--10.3---10.2------20.5
Davis------358---1.2---10.4------11.6
Paul-------333--11.8---+3.9-------7.9
Giannis---280-(-1.9)---5.5---neg7.4
Durant---368--10.9---+1.3-------9.6
Green----374--11.9--- 2.7------14.6


Curry has played the least minutes this year but he is way ahead on impact stats. These rankings are based on my predictions of what is most likely- Curry leads the Warriors to the title, Durant/Green are significantly less valuable and that the East gets dominated in the finals. If the Warriors lose then obviously Curry isn't going to finish #1. Also, the Spurs were an unusually weak playoff team. It's not much of a minus if Curry leads the Warriors to playoff wins against by far the three toughest playoff opponents they faced. As for missing regular season games, the regular season accounts for only half of my rankings at most. Curry is far enough ahead on a per minute basis that he could still beat out everyone even with a demerit for missing regular season games that history barely even notices.
The Pacers easily beat the Cavs when Oladipo was in. The Bucks lost when Giannis was in. If the Celtics are competitive going forward then that might be enough to let Giannis slightly edge Oladipo. But Oladipo has had better impact stats all year so that still probably won't be enough.

Where'd you get your numbers? BBR says LeBron's playoff on-off is +18.4 in 454 minutes played.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01/on-off/2018

[pelifan]

I for one think the Warriors should be rememberred for Curry on offense and length and talent at the wings spots on defense. The Warriors had a top defense before Draymond became a starter and just watching those games over the years the length of Thompson, Igoudala, Barnes, Durant and Livingston in driving lanes has always felt just as, if not more impactful than Draymond.

I see Draymond as far more replacable than most. Anyone who still has the opinon that Draymond couldnt be replaced by at least a half dozen players in the league and make the Warriors the same or better is just living in a world that isn't reality.

[therealbig3]

It takes a huge homer to have Curry #1, sorry. The guy has barely played, and his team was on its way to the conference finals without him. Using a tiny sample size of playoff on/off to justify taking him #1 is ridiculous.

And btw, doesn't he fall way short of Harden with that metric anyway?

LOL, it's pretty much impossible for Curry to make my top 5 tbh.