2018 NBA Draft Lottery thread - 4:30pm MST / 7:30pm EDT

[Book1Nation]

Dumb question again but how does the lottery actually work with the whole 4 pingpong balls get selected and somehow the combination gives you the draw? I get how it would work if there were 1000 balls and we have 250 of them but I don't quite get how this works with 14 balls

There are 1001 combinations of the 14 balls and we had 250 of them. 1 combination (11, 12, 13, 14) is unused.

You draw 4 balls and one of our 250 combinations came up first.

I feel like a dumbass. So the balls don't draw the draft position, it just draws the combination and the combination holds the 250 chances

To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1–2–3–4 is considered to be the same as 4–3–2–1. There are a total of 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these combinations, one outcome is disregarded and the remaining outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11–12–13–14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

[Revived]

Read on Twitter

[lilfishi22]

There are 1001 combinations of the 14 balls and we had 250 of them. 1 combination (11, 12, 13, 14) is unused.

You draw 4 balls and one of our 250 combinations came up first.

I feel like a dumbass. So the balls don't draw the draft position, it just draws the combination and the combination holds the 250 chances

To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1–2–3–4 is considered to be the same as 4–3–2–1. There are a total of 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these combinations, one outcome is disregarded and the remaining outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11–12–13–14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I've read like 3 articles trying to explain how it worked and I still didn't get it until you explained it. Powerful Suns fans

[Qwigglez]

I can now finally watch Ayton and Doncic highlights knowing we can take either one of those guys. It's such a huge relief after the past two years watching highlights of Ingram, Simmons, Fultz, Mitchell, knowing after the draft lottery we had no chance of getting them.

[thamadkant]

Dumb question again but how does the lottery actually work with the whole 4 pingpong balls get selected and somehow the combination gives you the draw? I get how it would work if there were 1000 balls and we have 250 of them but I don't quite get how this works with 14 balls

There are numbers plastered on the wall, each team has a quantity of these numbers... These numbers are made up of combinations of 4 numbers


They then draw the 4 numbers

Whomever matches that 4 numbers drawn from their allocated numbers... Wins.


Suns have the most numbers of combinations

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

[AtheJ415]

Ayton will be a fan favorite. Very friendly guy and a good teammate.

I thought you said earlier that we are taking Doncic no matter where we land? Are you just taking Gambo's word at face value? They certainly haven't decided for sure who they are picking yet.

Gambo is usually spot on when it comes to Suns info. James Jones said Igor will not be making the decision, only coaching the talent.

He really hasn't been under McDonough. He used to be 100%, but has been more 50/50 the last few years.

[papajoe]

No one can possibly be that daft. Not even Vlad

He traded Cousins for Buddy Hield...

Thought the guy on the left was Jose Mourinho for a sec

[AtheJ415]

Please no, without a guarantee that he wants to stay here

You keep #1 and trade the plethora of picks and young assets for him instead.

That asset would be Jackson then. They won't deal their star for nothing less than one of Jackson or the pick IMO.

Which is fine. Look, Jackson is not more valuable than this pick. The 1st pick becomes our 2nd best asset to Booker only.

[phx#7]

Here is the video of the lotto drawing
http://bleacherreport.com/post/phoenix-suns/a96ca94d-ce49-429c-85de-3c4b54ab2841


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

RIGGED!!!

[bwgood77]

Dumb question again but how does the lottery actually work with the whole 4 pingpong balls get selected and somehow the combination gives you the draw? I get how it would work if there were 1000 balls and we have 250 of them but I don't quite get how this works with 14 balls

It must work out perfectly where if you have 14 numbers but none can be repeated in a sequence that you end up with 1000 4 digit combinations. (edit - I knew there was an extra combination but for some reason I was thinking the 1000th one was the extra..but it's the 1001th)

If they could be repeated you would need 9 to come up with 9,999 but considering you have to start at a first potential combination of 1-2-3-4 instead of 1-1-1-1 it must work out.

Watching this lotto draw now...it's always funny watching that guy in the back (bottom right screen) with his back to the whole process raising his arm for when to pull the next ball.

http://bleacherreport.com/post/phoenix-suns/a96ca94d-ce49-429c-85de-3c4b54ab2841

[AtheJ415]

Hayward is a GREAT athlete.
Comparing Luka to him and then saying 'marginal speed, average lateral quickness' is completely absurd.

Yeah. Not sure why people are taking the likes of Fran Fraschilla as an expert here. Same for guys like Bilas, who might be good at evaluating college hoops but has a horrible track record in the draft, and yet ESPN trots him out there every year now.

Truth is the DraftExpress guys are the only ones that know what they are doing out of ESPN's draft crew, and even then they got rid of the best thing they did, which was make videos that actually showed fans what they meant when they labeled a player's strengths and weaknesses. ESPN then stuck them behind a paywall and no longer has them doing the videos.

[TheLogician]

Luka is still the best basketball player in the draft, and the offensive firepower would be ridiculous. Score Clint Capela or DCuz in the free agency and you have one heck of a squad.
Also notable would be the size of this lineup, with a perimeter of 6'8, 67', and 6'8. If JJ can guard the 1, Luka can slide down to take the 3, where he fares far better on defense.

Not saying I don't fully understand the appeal of Ayton. He has the perfect NBA body and a shooting stroke to boot. Ayton can become a premiere offensive threat inside and out, and will likely be a great rebounder, but I question his motor and performance on defense. ...And if we aren't getting a defensive stalwart shouldn't we at least get a facilitator?
I'm very much torn here, and while my head goes with Ayton, my heart is definitely hoping for Luka to be our guy.

I think Doncic would make a lot bigger impact immediately and make things much easier and fun for everyone else. With a guy like Ayton it will take more time. I'm not sure what we would do at PG then but I hope it wouldn't come down to desperation. But our offense and spacing would still be bad and I think it would be much harder for our team to improve quickly due to continued spacing issues and not great play making.

But I think he probably will be able to play stretch 5. I do think with Ayton though we could probably add another high pick or two in the next year or two so that could help, but I think it will take patience and we'd have to hope we could find some floor spreaders and initiators. He has the tools to play great D but of course we'd have to wait and see if and when that ever happened.

Who's the last rookie PG to come in and make an immediate impact? John Wall? If Doncic is not a PG, why would we add another wing with no on-ball defense ability? There are facilitators to be had at #16 and #31.

[RunDogGun]

So what would it take to get the number two pick from Sac? Besides our number one pick of course.

Seeing as they don't have a pick next year, I doubt they will move it. They need to get this right.

They can have ours unprotected.

[bwgood77]

Hayward is a GREAT athlete.
Comparing Luka to him and then saying 'marginal speed, average lateral quickness' is completely absurd.

Yeah. Not sure why people are taking the likes of Fran Fraschilla as an expert here. Same for guys like Bilas, who might be good at evaluating college hoops but has a horrible track record in the draft, and yet ESPN trots him out there every year now.

Truth is the DraftExpress guys are the only ones that know what they are doing out of ESPN's draft crew, and even then they got rid of the best thing they did, which was make videos that actually showed fans what they meant when they labeled a player's strengths and weaknesses. ESPN then stuck them behind a paywall and no longer has them doing the videos.

Yeah, it seems like those guys do a lot less work now that they have jobs. But ESPN sure pays them to travel.

[bwgood77]

Luka is still the best basketball player in the draft, and the offensive firepower would be ridiculous. Score Clint Capela or DCuz in the free agency and you have one heck of a squad.
Also notable would be the size of this lineup, with a perimeter of 6'8, 67', and 6'8. If JJ can guard the 1, Luka can slide down to take the 3, where he fares far better on defense.

Not saying I don't fully understand the appeal of Ayton. He has the perfect NBA body and a shooting stroke to boot. Ayton can become a premiere offensive threat inside and out, and will likely be a great rebounder, but I question his motor and performance on defense. ...And if we aren't getting a defensive stalwart shouldn't we at least get a facilitator?
I'm very much torn here, and while my head goes with Ayton, my heart is definitely hoping for Luka to be our guy.

I think Doncic would make a lot bigger impact immediately and make things much easier and fun for everyone else. With a guy like Ayton it will take more time. I'm not sure what we would do at PG then but I hope it wouldn't come down to desperation. But our offense and spacing would still be bad and I think it would be much harder for our team to improve quickly due to continued spacing issues and not great play making.

But I think he probably will be able to play stretch 5. I do think with Ayton though we could probably add another high pick or two in the next year or two so that could help, but I think it will take patience and we'd have to hope we could find some floor spreaders and initiators. He has the tools to play great D but of course we'd have to wait and see if and when that ever happened.

Who's the last rookie PG to come in and make an immediate impact? John Wall? If Doncic is not a PG, why would we add another wing with no on-ball defense ability? There are facilitators to be had at #16 and #31.

The guy I think he compares best to, although I think he is probably a better version because he can shoot. Ben Simmons. So you only have to go back 1 year. What big has made an immediate impact as a rookie? Particularly a one and done big? Most of the best bigs stay in the lottery most years and for several years.

[toucansma]

Wowowow!!!!!!!! Anyone watch the McD video, he is sure relieved!!

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

[DayofMourning]

I'm getting more convinced as time goes by that Doncic will be the pick for you guys. What a draft to be top three. I feel as if you can't go wrong. Congrats.

[MrMiyagi]

I don't think we can swing a trade for #2. But I wonder if TJ Warren, Chriss or Bender, 16 and a pick next season can get #5 from Dallas to grab Trae Young.