Marvin Bagley

Draft talk all year round

Moderators: Duke4life831, Marcus

User avatar
homecourtloss
RealGM
Posts: 11,522
And1: 18,917
Joined: Dec 29, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#961 » by homecourtloss » Sat May 12, 2018 7:24 am

Duke4life831 wrote:
Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.


Thank you for the insight into Duke’s defense.

This part of the analysis is what worries me about Bagley being a top3ish type pick. A big who is not elite defneively and who doesn’t create for others has a very low ceiling as far as difference making potential is concerned. I cannot see a big like that being more than a +3 type of player. +3 is very good, but not a difference maker to make a team compete in this league and if I have a top 3-4 pick, I want to take a chance on some one who can be.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
Duke4life831
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 36,886
And1: 67,595
Joined: Jun 16, 2015
 

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#962 » by Duke4life831 » Sat May 12, 2018 7:31 am

Kolkmania wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
Kolkmania wrote:
I do think that Bagley's feet are better than he showed this year, but his technique isn't good at this point. You can see in the clip above when he's defending 7 footer McGee that he opens up way too quick, providing driving lanes. NBA coaching will learn him a ton though.

Think that defense can be separated in two categories, one-on-one defense and team defense. He has the potential to be really good in the former category, but I've seen so many mental lapses this season that I'm really worried about the latter.


I definitely think he can improve technique wise defensively. And again I find it very hard to judge a players awareness while playing man defense for K. Again to me the majority of the time it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads cut off. He definitely had lapses for sure, but I didnt think he was a bad defender for a freshman. If I were to rank Duke's best defenders in man it wouldve been

1. Duval
2. Bagley
3. Grayon
4. Trent
5. Carter

I thought he moved his feet very well, and was solid on his rotations (again had his lapses and missed rotations). A lot of the time it was Bagley trying to cover his man then running over to help Carter who missed a rotation. This is one of the things I dont get, Carter was by far the worse defender in man, but I think people see a high DBPM and blocks and think that he was a stud defender. It was Carter who got benched multiple times throughout the year for his defense, not Bagley.

And I want to always clarify this when I defend Bagley's defense. I am in no way saying I think hes going to be an elite defender. I dont think hes ever going to be considered a DPOY or considered for an all defense team. But I think in today's game of versatility and switching, I think he will be a good defender. He wont hurt you defensively, you wont have to sub him out late in game on offensive and defensive subs. He's going to be a solid defender that can guard out on the perimeter really well for his size.


I agree with you for the most part, in the right scheme I do think he could be a valuable defender. Can you tell some games this year where Bagley's switchability was on full display?


The Pitt game is one that I recall. Here is a solid breakdown of his game.



A few things with it though in this video. You really see the flaws of K's defensive system in this.

4:05. This entire possession is whats wrong with K's system. First thing is you see Duval try to guard his man off the ball 30+ feet from the basket. At 4:13 Wendell Carter is guarding Brown (#21) like he is Steph Curry, but Brown made 3 3s all year, he is no threat at all as a shooter. Then you see them run a PnR, Carter is supposed to hedge then run back. Marvin and Grayson were expecting to guard the pick man long enough for Wendell to hedge then get back. But Wendell hesitates then decides to switch, this then puts Grayson and Bagley in a weird situation but Grayson did the smart thing and continued to guard the roll man.

This is kind of whats wrong with K's system in a nutshell. You have your guards, chasing guys 30+ feet from the basket, you have bigs guarding non shooters 25 feet away, guys that arent supposed to switch on PnR but to hedge then run back. All this together causes havoc for the defense and all it takes is one mistake like Carter here to switch instead of hedge and the defense fell apart.

5:30. This wasnt Bagley getting lost on defense. Not saying he doesnt get lost but this wasnt one of those times. This was actually all on Trent, this happened a lot. The entire team would play zone then Trent would kind of forget and play this half man half zone. This usually ended up with Bagley having to run across the court to try and cover both corners. Trent is supposed to run into the far corner after the missed shot at 5:35 and Bagley is supposed to be guarding the close corner. But you see Trent kind of just go blank and stand there and not know what to do. You see Grayson yelling at someone to get in the corner. Bagley runs over there and Trent then starts playing man. He then leaves the corner on his side and starts playing man on the ball and leaves the corner on his side wide open. Bagley then tries to tell Carter to sag down to cover Trent's 2nd mistake, Carter doesnt move and Bagley has to run all the way back over. You can even hear the announcer questioning if they went to man on the trip before, they didnt. It was only Trent who went man. Trent did this a lot where he would just forget theyre playing zone and it collapsed the zone and made guys like Grayson and Bagley run around trying to cover for him.
Duke4life831
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 36,886
And1: 67,595
Joined: Jun 16, 2015
 

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#963 » by Duke4life831 » Sat May 12, 2018 7:41 am

homecourtloss wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.


Thank you for the insight into Duke’s defense.

This part of the analysis is what worries me about Bagley being a top3ish type pick. A big who is not elite defneively and who doesn’t create for others has a very low ceiling as far as difference making potential is concerned. I cannot see a big like that being more than a +3 type of player. +3 is very good, but not a difference maker to make a team compete in this league and if I have a top 3-4 pick, I want to take a chance on some one who can be.


I totally get valuing defense with your big. I personally value elite scoring above all else, I personally think Bagley is going to be the best offensive player in this draft and an elite rebounder. I also dont see a game changer defensively but I see a good defender. So to me the defense is good enough to not offset his offense/rebounding. And the only other big that comes close to his offense is Ayton and I dont see any better defensive instincts with Ayton. I see a better shot blocker but a far less versatile defender, add in the motor and that is why I have Bagley over Ayton.

But again I totally get valuing defense higher than offense. That is why I get why people are really high on Jackson.
User avatar
homecourtloss
RealGM
Posts: 11,522
And1: 18,917
Joined: Dec 29, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#964 » by homecourtloss » Sat May 12, 2018 8:08 am

Duke4life831 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.


Thank you for the insight into Duke’s defense.

This part of the analysis is what worries me about Bagley being a top3ish type pick. A big who is not elite defneively and who doesn’t create for others has a very low ceiling as far as difference making potential is concerned. I cannot see a big like that being more than a +3 type of player. +3 is very good, but not a difference maker to make a team compete in this league and if I have a top 3-4 pick, I want to take a chance on some one who can be.


I totally get valuing defense with your big. I personally value elite scoring above all else, I personally think Bagley is going to be the best offensive player in this draft and an elite rebounder. I also dont see a game changer defensively but I see a good defender. So to me the defense is good enough to not offset his offense/rebounding. And the only other big that comes close to his offense is Ayton and I dont see any better defensive instincts with Ayton. I see a better shot blocker but a far less versatile defender, add in the motor and that is why I have Bagley over Ayton.

But again I totally get valuing defense higher than offense. That is why I get why people are really high on Jackson.


It’s not really about valuing defense more than offense from a big.

I can see him scoring in the right situation, but “best offensive player” to means being a scorer and creator for others via passing or at least just having a gravitational force on on offense. How many big men do that offensively? Jokic. KAT. Davis. The list is small.

Best offensive player in the draft to me implies he can be a +4 or +5 player on offense at minimum, and I don’t see many bigs being able to be that. Given that, he’s got to be elite defensively to ameliorate for that in order to be a true difference maker you want out of a top 3 pick. +2 offense, +3 to +3.5 on defense is probably a best case scenario for a big like Bagley and I don’t think he gets there.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
Duke4life831
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 36,886
And1: 67,595
Joined: Jun 16, 2015
 

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#965 » by Duke4life831 » Sat May 12, 2018 8:17 am

homecourtloss wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Thank you for the insight into Duke’s defense.

This part of the analysis is what worries me about Bagley being a top3ish type pick. A big who is not elite defneively and who doesn’t create for others has a very low ceiling as far as difference making potential is concerned. I cannot see a big like that being more than a +3 type of player. +3 is very good, but not a difference maker to make a team compete in this league and if I have a top 3-4 pick, I want to take a chance on some one who can be.


I totally get valuing defense with your big. I personally value elite scoring above all else, I personally think Bagley is going to be the best offensive player in this draft and an elite rebounder. I also dont see a game changer defensively but I see a good defender. So to me the defense is good enough to not offset his offense/rebounding. And the only other big that comes close to his offense is Ayton and I dont see any better defensive instincts with Ayton. I see a better shot blocker but a far less versatile defender, add in the motor and that is why I have Bagley over Ayton.

But again I totally get valuing defense higher than offense. That is why I get why people are really high on Jackson.


It’s not really about valuing defense more than offense from a big.

I can see him scoring in the right situation, but “best offensive player” to means being a scorer and creator for others via passing or at least just having a gravitational force on on offense. How many big men do that offensively? Jokic. KAT. Davis. The list is small.

Best offensive player in the draft to me implies he can be a +4 or +5 player on offense at minimum, and I don’t see many bigs being able to be that. Given that, he’s got to be elite defensively to ameliorate for that in order to be a true difference maker you want out of a top 3 pick. +2 offense, +3 to +3.5 on defense is probably a best case scenario for a big like Bagley and I don’t think he gets there.


He's definitely not the passer Jokic is. But hes every much the passer if not more than KAT and Davis were at the same age. I think his jumpshot is better than Davis jumper coming into the league, I dont think its crazy to think he can match KAT's 3pt numbers as a rookie and I think he is going to be much more effective in transition than KAT is. I really dont see what limits Bagley is going to have offensively compared to bigs like AD and KAT.

Im curious who are your top 3 guys?
User avatar
homecourtloss
RealGM
Posts: 11,522
And1: 18,917
Joined: Dec 29, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#966 » by homecourtloss » Sat May 12, 2018 10:49 am

Duke4life831 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
I totally get valuing defense with your big. I personally value elite scoring above all else, I personally think Bagley is going to be the best offensive player in this draft and an elite rebounder. I also dont see a game changer defensively but I see a good defender. So to me the defense is good enough to not offset his offense/rebounding. And the only other big that comes close to his offense is Ayton and I dont see any better defensive instincts with Ayton. I see a better shot blocker but a far less versatile defender, add in the motor and that is why I have Bagley over Ayton.

But again I totally get valuing defense higher than offense. That is why I get why people are really high on Jackson.


It’s not really about valuing defense more than offense from a big.

I can see him scoring in the right situation, but “best offensive player” to means being a scorer and creator for others via passing or at least just having a gravitational force on on offense. How many big men do that offensively? Jokic. KAT. Davis. The list is small.

Best offensive player in the draft to me implies he can be a +4 or +5 player on offense at minimum, and I don’t see many bigs being able to be that. Given that, he’s got to be elite defensively to ameliorate for that in order to be a true difference maker you want out of a top 3 pick. +2 offense, +3 to +3.5 on defense is probably a best case scenario for a big like Bagley and I don’t think he gets there.


He's definitely not the passer Jokic is. But hes every much the passer if not more than KAT and Davis were at the same age. I think his jumpshot is better than Davis jumper coming into the league, I dont think its crazy to think he can match KAT's 3pt numbers as a rookie and I think he is going to be much more effective in transition than KAT is. I really dont see what limits Bagley is going to have offensively compared to bigs like AD and KAT.

Im curious who are your top 3 guys?


Honestly, I’m not as high on this draft as others. I think you can get a good player 10-12 players deep, which is great, but I’m not seeing any likely 1st team all-NBA players here.

It will be interesting to see Bagley develop. What do you see as his offensive ceiling? +5? +4? Best offensive player in a draft has to be at least that. Right now, in the top 50, you have Jokic and KAT at +3.5 to +4 bigs on offense and then Boogie, Love, LMA, and Griffin at around +2. ALL of them shoot the three now other than LMA though he’s shown some improved range.

If forced, I would say Doncic, Jackson, Bamba. Bamba could be a bust, but I also see him possibly developing a good three point stroke and possibly being able to switch out and play perimeter defense. If he dies, he has an enormous ceiling to me.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
Curmudgeon
RealGM
Posts: 42,158
And1: 25,929
Joined: Jan 20, 2004
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#967 » by Curmudgeon » Tue May 15, 2018 12:38 pm

Derrick Coleman without the elite rebounding.
"Numbers lie alot. Wins and losses don't lie." - Jerry West
"You are what your record says you are."- Bill Parcells
"Offense sells tickets. Defense wins games. Rebounding wins championships." Pat Summit
D3ko
Sophomore
Posts: 132
And1: 75
Joined: Dec 29, 2014
Contact:
         

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#968 » by D3ko » Tue May 15, 2018 8:56 pm

A bust level Thomas Robinson , tyus Thomas , or the millions of PF that have played in the Euro league the last decade.

Not big, poor shooter , no handle , no post moves, not good at pick and roll, bad defender , no rim protection .

A waste in the lottery , I would grab him around 17-25.

I can't see him being anything more than a bench player.

Floor : Thomas Robinson
Probably : Taj Gibson
Ceiling: poor Zbo
User avatar
Marty McFly
RealGM
Posts: 26,636
And1: 9,348
Joined: Sep 15, 2009
     

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#969 » by Marty McFly » Tue May 15, 2018 10:26 pm

Curmudgeon wrote:Derrick Coleman without the elite rebounding.


Bagley's a very good rebounder.
Guano wrote:Fourni3r forgetting he has Bob cousy handles

Woodsanity wrote:Imagine trusting a team with World B Flat on it without Lebron keeping him in check.
nolang1
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,959
And1: 1,757
Joined: Aug 03, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#970 » by nolang1 » Tue May 15, 2018 10:32 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.


Thank you for the insight into Duke’s defense.

This part of the analysis is what worries me about Bagley being a top3ish type pick. A big who is not elite defneively and who doesn’t create for others has a very low ceiling as far as difference making potential is concerned. I cannot see a big like that being more than a +3 type of player. +3 is very good, but not a difference maker to make a team compete in this league and if I have a top 3-4 pick, I want to take a chance on some one who can be.


A +3/+1 player would be 18th in the league in RPM, just ahead of Al Horford and just behind Giannis, and it's not like +1 on defense is an extremely generous estimate for a big who will be one of the top 5-10 rebounders in the league. Needless to say, the best players in the league in a given year are scattered across several drafts and even the #18 player would very likely be one of the top 4 players from his draft class.

An offensive rebound creates extra possessions for others, and if you watch any Duke game in full it's not hard to find examples of Bagley's teammates getting easy layups or offensive rebounds themselves because the opponent is so preoccupied with the threat of Bagley getting a lob/putback. It's common enough that I knew I could find one in any Trevon Duval highlight, and sure enough at 2:08 of this video it's how Duval scores the go-ahead basket against Miami (as an added bonus, Bagley makes a nice pass out of a double team for a Duval three-pointer in the following play):

He was just as good at making big-to-big passes as Carter was (Carter is just worse at getting up and dunking before the help can come over and foul him) and even made some good passes as the roll man on the rare occasions Duke ran pick-and-roll. Beyond that, he was one of the top offensive rebounders in the country, shot 75% at the rim, and attempted a higher percentage of his shots at the rim than any of the other lottery big man prospects, so any critique of his passing should reflect that his athleticism, off-ball work, and finishing ability put him in a situation where attempting a shot is the obvious correct play the majority of the time he gets the ball.
King Ken
General Manager
Posts: 9,808
And1: 5,497
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
   

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#971 » by King Ken » Wed May 16, 2018 2:37 am

As Bagley biggest supporter on here with D4L831, I can't lie. I am in damn tears right now. Bagley has been my #1 prospect all season. I think he's transcendent special.
nolang1
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,959
And1: 1,757
Joined: Aug 03, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#972 » by nolang1 » Wed May 16, 2018 3:00 am

King Ken wrote:As Bagley biggest supporter on here with D4L831, I can't lie. I am in damn tears right now. Bagley has been my #1 prospect all season. I think he's transcendent special.


Think Collins can play well alongside him or should they trade Collins while his value is still high?
RollingWave
Starter
Posts: 2,076
And1: 795
Joined: Apr 06, 2006

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#973 » by RollingWave » Wed May 16, 2018 3:28 am

Isn't Bagley kind of better Julius Randle? that's a very good player but probably not game changer.
The river of time wash away all heroes
King Ken
General Manager
Posts: 9,808
And1: 5,497
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
   

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#974 » by King Ken » Wed May 16, 2018 3:31 am

nolang1 wrote:
King Ken wrote:As Bagley biggest supporter on here with D4L831, I can't lie. I am in damn tears right now. Bagley has been my #1 prospect all season. I think he's transcendent special.


Think Collins can play well alongside him or should they trade Collins while his value is still high?

They should look into both. Look into playing them with each other and look into moving Collins for a top 10 pick for (Sexton or Young).
nolang1
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,959
And1: 1,757
Joined: Aug 03, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#975 » by nolang1 » Wed May 16, 2018 3:45 am

RollingWave wrote:Isn't Bagley kind of better Julius Randle? that's a very good player but probably not game changer.


As I've said before, this is like saying "isn't Steph Curry kind of a better Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf?" or "isn't Michael Jordan kind of a better David Thompson?" When you're bigger, more athletic, smarter, more skilled, etc., you can reach an entirely different level than the players you're compared to.
daoneandonly
RealGM
Posts: 16,139
And1: 4,192
Joined: May 27, 2004
Location: Masalaland
   

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#976 » by daoneandonly » Wed May 16, 2018 11:19 am

So pissed Dal once again gets pissed on in the lottery, it was nice while it lasted picturing Bagley in a Mavs uni
Deuteronomy 30:19 wrote:I call heaven and earth to witness against you today, that I have set before you life and death, blessing and curse. Therefore choose life, that you and your offspring may live
BladeKor
Sophomore
Posts: 200
And1: 102
Joined: Jan 29, 2015
         

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#977 » by BladeKor » Wed May 16, 2018 2:34 pm

nolang1 wrote:
King Ken wrote:As Bagley biggest supporter on here with D4L831, I can't lie. I am in damn tears right now. Bagley has been my #1 prospect all season. I think he's transcendent special.


Think Collins can play well alongside him or should they trade Collins while his value is still high?


Why would you say that?
nolang1
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,959
And1: 1,757
Joined: Aug 03, 2012

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#978 » by nolang1 » Wed May 16, 2018 3:51 pm

BladeKor wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
King Ken wrote:As Bagley biggest supporter on here with D4L831, I can't lie. I am in damn tears right now. Bagley has been my #1 prospect all season. I think he's transcendent special.


Think Collins can play well alongside him or should they trade Collins while his value is still high?


Why would you say that?


Bagley has a more well-rounded game but duplicates Collins' strengths, and there are diminishing returns to having multiple offensive rebounders/lob catchers.
BladeKor
Sophomore
Posts: 200
And1: 102
Joined: Jan 29, 2015
         

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#979 » by BladeKor » Wed May 16, 2018 3:54 pm

nolang1 wrote:
BladeKor wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
Think Collins can play well alongside him or should they trade Collins while his value is still high?


Why would you say that?


Bagley has a more well-rounded game but duplicates Collins' strengths, and there are diminishing returns to having multiple offensive rebounders/lob catchers.


Hawks isn't going to be trading Collins.
King Ken
General Manager
Posts: 9,808
And1: 5,497
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
   

Re: Marvin Bagley 

Post#980 » by King Ken » Wed May 16, 2018 4:21 pm

nolang1 wrote:
BladeKor wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
Think Collins can play well alongside him or should they trade Collins while his value is still high?


Why would you say that?


Bagley has a more well-rounded game but duplicates Collins' strengths, and there are diminishing returns to having multiple offensive rebounders/lob catchers.

I agree. They could play together but it wouldn't be that effective long term. Not as big a deal right now but I would look to package him in a deal to get a top 10 pick for Sexton or Young.

Return to NBA Draft