The Draft (Postseason Edition): 1/16/31/59 (NEW POLL)

[lilfishi22]

I wasn’t coming in here hostile if anybody thinks that, I’m just a Kong’s fan interested in what you guys want and need at 1. We are linked together now having 1 and 2 so I’m in here seeing who you guys love.

As for us we’re mostly split I think between Ayton/Doncic and it’s a win win for us. I have Doncic at 1 and would love a future small ball lineup with him at PF.

House SunKings until I rival takes off soon


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Do you Kings fan take Doncic's latest comments about potentially staying in Europe with an optimistic view (Doncic not want to talk about the future in the midst of EL playoffs) or a more grim one (specifically wants to finesse his way away from the Kings among other teams)?

[bwgood77]

I wasn’t coming in here hostile if anybody thinks that, I’m just a Kong’s fan interested in what you guys want and need at 1. We are linked together now having 1 and 2 so I’m in here seeing who you guys love.

As for us we’re mostly split I think between Ayton/Doncic and it’s a win win for us. I have Doncic at 1 and would love a future small ball lineup with him at PF.

House SunKings until I rival takes off soon


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Well some think it's in the realm of possibility we end up both, and I think the only way that happens is if we become KingSuns, so we may as well just go with that.

Our board was high on both most of the year (not all were high on both) but it was pretty evenly split for who liked who. Doncic won early polls with more options, then with only them two as options, they tied, then later Doncic won, and now after getting the #1 pick, Ayton is winning, though it includes more votes, some assuredly from other fanbases. It does seem some people who were previously leaning Doncic have switched to Ayton and less so the other way around.

But for some of us it's very close. Personally I was kind of hoping we got two (and that our GM had these guys 1/2 for sure) so we could just pick who was left.

[bwgood77]

He's an elite role player. How many franchise guys are almost exclusively defense first guys? In an offense first league, can you really build a team around Gobert as your franchise guy? Or do you build it around Mitchell?

I don't understand this question. They have both of them? Why do they have to choose one or the other? Can they not build it around both?

It's got nothing to do with Utah. It started with the Revive's comparison between Bamba and Gobert. My assertion was that Bamba may have Gobert level defensive potential but I don't view Gobert/Bamba as franchise level players. Obviously the definition of a franchise guy isn't set in stone but I still see Bamba as a potential elite role player rather than a star because I don't view elite defensive guys as stars. How many almost exclusively defensive players are franchise guys? The key difference between a DPOY level player like Gobert and a DPOY level/clear franchise guy like Anthony Davis is offense.

Anyway, my other point is that you're looking for a franchise guy, ideally a transcendent talent. When you have a great chance of getting the best guy in the draft' drafting a prospect with elite role player ceiling(imo) seems wasteful.

I think the guy who most impacts your wins and losses and a guy like Gobert is more rare. But because it's so rare I think it's also not smart to assume anyone, even someone with similar measurables will be the next (insert very rare type of player).

I kind of hate the comps because i think guys should stand on their own.

[lilfishi22]

I don't understand this question. They have both of them? Why do they have to choose one or the other? Can they not build it around both?

It's got nothing to do with Utah. It started with the Revive's comparison between Bamba and Gobert. My assertion was that Bamba may have Gobert level defensive potential but I don't view Gobert/Bamba as franchise level players. Obviously the definition of a franchise guy isn't set in stone but I still see Bamba as a potential elite role player rather than a star because I don't view elite defensive guys as stars. How many almost exclusively defensive players are franchise guys? The key difference between a DPOY level player like Gobert and a DPOY level/clear franchise guy like Anthony Davis is offense.

Anyway, my other point is that you're looking for a franchise guy, ideally a transcendent talent. When you have a great chance of getting the best guy in the draft' drafting a prospect with elite role player ceiling(imo) seems wasteful.

I think the guy who most impacts your wins and losses and a guy like Gobert is more rare. But because it's so rare I think it's also not smart to assume anyone, even someone with similar measurables will be the next (insert very rare type of player).

I kind of hate the comps because i think guys should stand on their own.

That was something I didn't bring up. I don't think Bamba is going to be the next Gobert mainly because Gobert types are so rare.

[Revived]

Been watching a lot of Ayton college games and it looks like he's focused on guarding the perimeter shot, which he's done well at.

But he just watched the other team's players drive into the paint and he doesnt move... he could have easily made a move to block the shot from the back, but he just focused on guarding the 3pt or long 2.


He does go for blocks if someone tries to shoot in front of him and he does well making them miss.... but he could easily have gotten 1 or 2 more blocks a game if he actually moves for the help defense..

I think this is fixable..... very fixable

How often is bad rim protection in college fixed in the pros? I honestly can't think of one example.

Ben Simmons was a horrible defender in college who played incredibly lazy basketball. I know he's not a center really and it's not specific to rim protection, but there are plenty of bad defenders in college who ended up good defenders in the NBA. It is obviously more telling if you are a good defender, but guys improve in various areas with more time and experience and better coaching and training. Defense isn't an exception to that rule.

You're dodging the question. He asked in specific to rim protection. Ben Simmons isn't a rim protector.

And he's right. I can't think of any Cs who were bad at rim protecting in college and then magically became a good one in the NBA.

[thamadkant]

Been watching a lot of Ayton college games and it looks like he's focused on guarding the perimeter shot, which he's done well at.

But he just watched the other team's players drive into the paint and he doesnt move... he could have easily made a move to block the shot from the back, but he just focused on guarding the 3pt or long 2.


He does go for blocks if someone tries to shoot in front of him and he does well making them miss.... but he could easily have gotten 1 or 2 more blocks a game if he actually moves for the help defense..

I think this is fixable..... very fixable

How often is bad rim protection in college fixed in the pros? I honestly can't think of one example.

I know exactly what you're on about.
Like I mentioned before, I checked elite big men of the past and current.. and all have been amazing shot blockers in college.

Even high school...

Ayton has been meh in both in regards to shot blocking, I've acknowledged this and hence I projected him to be a Cousins type production center... 20/10 and 1.5 blocks tops likely.

But I then started watching FULL games of Ayton and he does protect the rim... players in the paint shooting the ball in front of him, he will try to block... and usually leads to them missing.

What he does poorly is he doesnt move and leave his man out in the perimeter to block or attempt from the weak side or from behind.

So, he does play defense well enough to shooters... and that is "good" today because if a team switches and he gets a shooter in front of him... he will likely contest the shot well...

But what he doesnt do or try.. is block from behind.

But to answer your question, Durant wasnt a good shot blocker or known shot blocker in college as well even though he was a super athletic 7'0 7'7 wingspan player... but he has improved gradually and since joining Warriors, they've asked him to help protect the paint more and he is averaging over 1.5 blocks a game... and he's mostly at the perimeter.

[Blonde]

I can’t take another month of waiting. I’m a Doncic guy, but I’d love Ayton if we got the 2nd pick. He’s a fantastic prospect. I’m worried the next month is going to make me very jaded toward Ayton and that’s just not fair to him.

I don’t think many people here will be convinced one way or another because we’re all educated fans. From a team upside perspective I like Doncic because I think what he provides will be more conducive to winning now and in the future. I think it’s easier to build a playoff team around his skills rather than Ayton.

[jredsaz]

I watched first-hand Hakeem developing at University of Houston, under Guy Lewis. I saw him work during the summers at Fonde Rec center in Houston (Moses Malone's) playground. I can say that, without a doubt, Ayton is further along at age 19 than Hakeem was. Hakeem was 19 as a freshman on the U of H roster and he was not a starter of a key reserve. Akeem, as he was known then, had few offensive skills, but had great footwork and was incredibly athletic. He was not very strong and had difficulties getting a contested shots. He blocked a lot of shots. Hakeem took a significant step up in the middle of his sophomore year and then became a beast his junior year, which was when he left. Ayton has many of the same qualities. The Suns would be foolish to pass on him.

[jcsunsfan]

How often is bad rim protection in college fixed in the pros? I honestly can't think of one example.

Ben Simmons was a horrible defender in college who played incredibly lazy basketball. I know he's not a center really and it's not specific to rim protection, but there are plenty of bad defenders in college who ended up good defenders in the NBA. It is obviously more telling if you are a good defender, but guys improve in various areas with more time and experience and better coaching and training. Defense isn't an exception to that rule.

You're dodging the question. He asked in specific to rim protection. Ben Simmons isn't a rim protector.

And he's right. I can't think of any Cs who were bad at rim protecting in college and then magically became a good one in the NBA.

But Ayton defended as a forward in college and on the perimeter at that. So finding a comparison would be very rare.

[oddity]

Signing of Redick, Bellineli, Ilyasova
Improvement of Saric
Healthy Embiid

are also all critical.

In the playoffs, 76ers were better without Simmons on the court against Celtics, due to Simmons lack of shooting

Yes but Doncic can shoot. So teams would have to play him honest. Look at how Simmons has been successful without a jump shot. Just imagine what Doncic can do and how the floor spacing improves.

Well, to play Devil's advocate a bit, Doncic isn't a great shooter. He is an advanced shooter in that he can hit various difficult shots, but his overall percentages are not particularly good from 3 (I think 31 or 33%). I could actually argue Ayton is as good a shooter as Doncic given how money he is from mid-range. That said, I do think Doncic ends up a good shooter in the NBA.

You can't take shooting and whittle it down to just a single percentage. Yes he is extremely 'advanced' of a shooter, taking more shots in more spots around the 3pt line on and off the ball and in end of game situations. His shot motion is better - as picture perfect as Booker's minus a tendency to fade unnecessarily. His Ft% is sitting at a cool 80% on 5 attempts per game, and his 3pt shooting in previous years was also higher, albeit on lower usage. Overall I think you bet on Luka developing into a very solid shooter over the years.

[saintEscaton]

Yes but Doncic can shoot. So teams would have to play him honest. Look at how Simmons has been successful without a jump shot. Just imagine what Doncic can do and how the floor spacing improves.

Well, to play Devil's advocate a bit, Doncic isn't a great shooter. He is an advanced shooter in that he can hit various difficult shots, but his overall percentages are not particularly good from 3 (I think 31 or 33%). I could actually argue Ayton is as good a shooter as Doncic given how money he is from mid-range. That said, I do think Doncic ends up a good shooter in the NBA.

You can't take shooting and whittle it down to just a single percentage. Yes he is extremely 'advanced' of a shooter, taking more shots in more spots around the 3pt line on and off the ball and in end of game situations. His shot motion is better - as picture perfect as Booker's minus a tendency to fade unnecessarily. His Ft% is sitting at a cool 80% on 5 attempts per game, and his 3pt shooting in previous years was also higher, albeit on lower usage. Overall I think you bet on Luka developing into a very solid shooter over the years.

You can its called true shooting percentage which is a FG% that accounts for the increased point value of 3pt shots and points scored from free throws.

[Revived]

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[JMac1]

I watched first-hand Hakeem developing at University of Houston, under Guy Lewis. I saw him work during the summers at Fonde Rec center in Houston (Moses Malone's) playground. I can say that, without a doubt, Ayton is further along at age 19 than Hakeem was. Hakeem was 19 as a freshman on the U of H roster and he was not a starter of a key reserve. Akeem, as he was known then, had few offensive skills, but had great footwork and was incredibly athletic. He was not very strong and had difficulties getting a contested shots. He blocked a lot of shots. Hakeem took a significant step up in the middle of his sophomore year and then became a beast his junior year, which was when he left. Ayton has many of the same qualities. The Suns would be foolish to pass on him.

I think this is the guy that we all wanted to see against these small ball lineups. A true big that will be an offensive force. Someone who cannot be run off the floor or guarded one on one by Draymond Green.

I spent a night looking at the stats of college big men greats..

Duncan, Robinson, Ewing, Mourning, Hakeem, Davis, Cousins etc. I posted (cherry picked) college season stats that I felt was similar to Ayton/JJJ/Bamba/Bagley in regards to minutes played, age or whether its their first college year or not.


Duncan, Robinson as examples didnt put up Unanimous Pick 1 big men numbers in their first college years. They did EXPLODE in years 2 or 3 as they got more adjusted or minutes.
Back then, college players actually paid their dues in college and PLAYER development was KEY... so it was normal for college players to be READY when they enter the league and Duncan and Robinson both were 20/10 and elite defenders as Rookies. Complete BIGs.

Now looking at Davis, Cousins, Towns etc. I feel that TODAY, because of the 1-year "stop" over in college, the players already know if they're going number 1 or not so the college time is just formalities until draft night.

Davis is a special case, that he's a legit SKILLED big man because he was 6'2 point guard until he grew 8 inches in a couple of years. He is also an evolution of Kevin Garnett, where he grew up having someone to "copy" and mimic and hone is game towards. Given that Davis is an elite ball handler for someone his size due to his background... he also has all the intangibles that Point Guards tend to have as players.... what I'm getting at is... Davis is a Wing player that is wide and tall and he had wing skills as his base.... but he added big men type moves onto his repertoire... Hence why Davis is a better front face player than he is an inside player.

Compare Davis to Robinson, Duncan, Ewing, Hakeem etc... Davis is actually a "meh" inside player, he gets by due to his wing skills and size and athleticism obviously. Also why someone like Draymond Green can bother him because Davis thinks like a wing player.... But with that said, Davis has improved throughout the years and he is the best big man both sides of the court today.

Cousins is similar... but he's always been a big man since he was young so he doesnt have the wing-mentality that Davis has.

Basically, a lot of big men Post-Kevin Garnett followed his style.... Duncan?.... well you have players like Okafor, Embiid, etc. who had to base their game on Duncan... Embiid luckily was exposed to the future of big men as he was developing so he adopted 3pt shooting and drawing fouls (he's learnt that from Harden for sure).

Duncan's game is boring compared to KG so its rare these days to copy Duncan. Would Duncan dominate today? Absolutely. Because he has a post game that small ball bigs wont stop... nor all star bigs could either.... and he had great IQ and defensive awareness.

ALSO he was lucky in a sense that he was drafted by Spurs, a team with experience in having a franchise big man (admiral)..... under Popovic lead FO... where they saw a trend happening, they saw the importance ball movement from the INSIDE to OUT and having a disciplined defensive structure AT ALL times...

Anyways, my point is Ayton is NO WAY near done developing. If he simply copies the trend of front face big men... then he'll just be one of them.
But what he has shown is that he is truly a BIG man and his base skill set is that of a BIG man with elite athleticism and foot work.

The coaching staff needs to build a system that ensures his skills are maximized rather than compromised.
Not saying he should stop developing his 3pt shot or front face shot... he needs those to be truly unstoppable.. But the Suns need to incorporate post game and think about using Ayton (if they draft him) as first guy to touch the ball in every play... check if he could score easily... if not kick it out. INSIDE - OUT approach rather than the OUTSIDE then hopefully a big man is open for a dunk approach.
Not saying they should do that the whole game either, they need to adjust and be unpredictable vary the tactics accordingly.

I would HATE to see Suns draft Ayton and just use him as a lob finisher.... he needs take advantage inside.




Defensively, he will improve but its all attitude in that end IMO.... he needs to want to block or challenge a shot first and foremost, most of the time in college he just couldnt be bothered.


And watching the replays of Ayton made me realize how slow Ristic is... man that guy is so slow.

Good post.

[lilfishi22]

Well, to play Devil's advocate a bit, Doncic isn't a great shooter. He is an advanced shooter in that he can hit various difficult shots, but his overall percentages are not particularly good from 3 (I think 31 or 33%). I could actually argue Ayton is as good a shooter as Doncic given how money he is from mid-range. That said, I do think Doncic ends up a good shooter in the NBA.

You can't take shooting and whittle it down to just a single percentage. Yes he is extremely 'advanced' of a shooter, taking more shots in more spots around the 3pt line on and off the ball and in end of game situations. His shot motion is better - as picture perfect as Booker's minus a tendency to fade unnecessarily. His Ft% is sitting at a cool 80% on 5 attempts per game, and his 3pt shooting in previous years was also higher, albeit on lower usage. Overall I think you bet on Luka developing into a very solid shooter over the years.

You can its called true shooting percentage which is a FG% that accounts for the increased point value of 3pt shots and points scored from free throws.

TS% is probably a better barometer for scoring efficiency since FT% is included. eFG% would be better specifically for shooting since it doesn't take into account FT%.

Neither really tells the whole story when it comes to project-able shooting at the NBA level. A high FT% is a good indicator for good and projectable shooting form.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

If you could have your choice of player in the 6-10 range through a trade to pair with Ayton or Doncic who would it be?

Gimme Ayton and Trae Young.

1000%

[lilfishi22]

If you could have your choice of player in the 6-10 range through a trade to pair with Ayton or Doncic who would it be?

Gimme Ayton and Trae Young.

1000%

Not sure I can get on board with that. We'd score 120 but give up probably 150

[JMac1]

I'm not knocking Doncic's shooting because I think he'll be fine in that department. But Ayton's mechanics are pretty special for a 19 year old big man.

Read on Twitter

Case closed!

[DirtyDez]

Been watching a lot of Ayton college games and it looks like he's focused on guarding the perimeter shot, which he's done well at.

But he just watched the other team's players drive into the paint and he doesnt move... he could have easily made a move to block the shot from the back, but he just focused on guarding the 3pt or long 2.


He does go for blocks if someone tries to shoot in front of him and he does well making them miss.... but he could easily have gotten 1 or 2 more blocks a game if he actually moves for the help defense..

I think this is fixable..... very fixable

I saw the same thing. He's very good guarding out to the perimeter when he's locked on and pretty good even switching on the perimeter to another guard. Where he falls down is his overall awareness on the weakside. When he does recognize a play happening on the weakside, it's often too late and either the help isn't there or he just can't get there in time. He definitely needs to work on that and I think it is teachable

McD alluded to that today...

Obviously like a lot of young players he needs to be a little better defensively, understanding off-ball rotations and concepts and things like that but that usually comes with experience.”

The problem is Arizona didn’t rotate or help their guys on the perimeter. Look at most of Ayton lowlights. He’s on an island.

He still should’ve been more aggressive around the rim but without playing next to a slow 7’ he’s probably averaging around 3 blks a game just based on his length (and not necessarily instincts).

[DirtyDez]

This is something that many scouting reports have on Ayton

Intensity wanes, which has been a knock since he was young; is that because of fatigue, focus, or his mind-set?

This is downright scary for a big man. Reminds me of guys like Bynum, Thabeet, Sanders, hell even our own top 5 pick Len has this problem as well.

I saw it more as confusion. Sanders and Bynum has major attitude issues which we haven’t heard anything about regarding Ayton (unless Gambo talks to another source of his).

[lilfishi22]

This is something that many scouting reports have on Ayton

Intensity wanes, which has been a knock since he was young; is that because of fatigue, focus, or his mind-set?

This is downright scary for a big man. Reminds me of guys like Bynum, Thabeet, Sanders, hell even our own top 5 pick Len has this problem as well.

I saw it more as confusion. Sanders and Bynum has major attitude issues which we haven’t heard anything about regarding Ayton (unless Gambo talks to another source of his).

Even if he has another source backing this claim, he wouldn't be able to get far away from Ayton's nuts to actually report it.