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Offensive Takeaways For Bigs In The Playoffs, Versatile Perimeter Skill & The 2018 Draft Fallout VI. The 2018 Draft Fallout
I”m going to go into more nuance and video detail of each of the big prospects when I write my big board, and this post is already getting dangerously long, so I’ll keep the ramifications here short.
1.Jontay Porter: Offensively, Teddy-Bear Porter arguably benefits the most from the league’s shift towards perimeter play. He’s the best ball-handler (possesses rare point five handling coordination with actual dribble moves), quick decision-maker (next to Carter) and has the most fluid shooting mechanics from 3 of the group with the ability to shoot off movement, something no other big in the class can do with any consistency. Porter of course lacks finishing pop around the rim and is not going to punish a lot of players in the post (but might be capable here), but on the perimeter he offers a ton of dribble, pass and shoot ability with a real proclivity for screening and popping. Even if he’s a situational big due to athleticism concerns in the Olynyk mold, he should not fall out of the lottery based on his conducive skill-set to modern basketball (you have to buy at least some athletic/frame upside, but there might be an inefficiency at work here if he gets in shape).
2.Wendell Carter: Carter is the most versatile big in the class as he projects to do everything well at the next level. He’s not as fluid of a shooter and ball-handler as Jontay, but his mechanics are my second favorite in this class of bigs. He’s a little clunky as a dribbler but is coordinated and controlled. Most imperatively, Carter can make quick decisions with the ball, while also being able to capitalize on mismatches in the post. Carter’s all-around play paired with just above average athleticism earns him “high floor low ceiling” tabs, but it’s these kinds of versatile playmakers with high IQ and non eye-popping athleticism that draft connoisseurs are likely to underrate.
3.Jaren Jackson: Jackson’s value as the best defender in the class comes mostly on the other side of the ball, but I maintain that his ball-handling coordination is one of, if not, the most underrated skill in the draft. Jackson gets lumped in with Ibaka, but his dribbling ability and coordination there far exceeds Ibaka. Even with his funky push shot Jackson has shown consistent repetitive mechanics from even NBA 3 this year, with flashes of off movement shooting. The one trait that Jackson doesn’t bring to the table is quick decision-making as a passer, as he’s not nearly as adept there as Carter or Porter. Yet, he’s unselfish, and I like the way Jackson is wired and how he attacks open space off the bounce instead of settling. He’s also capable in the post with soft touch with either hand to beat mismatches soundly with his size and length extension. Overall, Jackson has all the perimeter goods outside of lightning quick processing and pull-up shooting when contested, and he shouldn’t be pigeon-holed into an outdated 3&D grouping.
4.Marvin Bagley: Bagley in theory projects to be able to do everything on the perimeter down the road if he plays the five. His ball-handling coordination is legitimate in the open court on grab-and-goes, he shows fluidity and excellent footwork getting to his pull-up in the mid-range, he’s incredibly active on the offensive glass to punish mismatches/can elevate over the top in the post and he’s even flashed quick read ability against zone defenses and on the move in tighter confines. Bagley’s 3-point shot due to non-elite touch and catapult mechanics aren’t a shoe-in to translate to NBA 3 however, and the ball slows him down in tighter spaces in the half court, especially playing the four. He’s a functional passer, but doesn’t make ultra-quick decisions consistently. There’s a lot to like about Bagley’s perimeter game, but there’s also a lot of uncertainty with shot projection in conjunction with position projection.
5.DeAndre Ayton: Of the elite bigs Ayton’s game fits the poorest of any of the non-Bamba types. He’s a proficient mid-range shooter, but his footwork is inconsistent with too much input and his arc is really flat, bringing into question how well he extends to NBA 3 consistently. He rarely ever dribbles, instead settling for pick-and-pop shots when he’s given airspace, so it’s difficult to assess his ball-handling coordination. JZ Mazlish already covered this face up dynamic expansively and I agree with his conclusions here from the flashes we’ve seen. Ayton is coordinated enough to run dribble hand-offs Andre Drummond style but he’s not going to face up a defender like Karl Towns or DeMarcus Cousins, put the ball between his legs a few times and blow by him to fluidly finish at the rim. He’s a hyper coordinated runner, but lacks that ability on-ball. Lastly, Ayton is a very capable and unselfish passer, who thrives patiently passing over the top of the defense against double teams especially, but he’s not a quick processor or decision-maker. What Ayton really brings in spades is the ability to post and potentially dictate enemy lineups, but does he have enough perimeter game to accompany this?
6.Mohamed Bamba: Bamba is the biggest mystery box of this group of bigs on the perimeter, mostly due to his recent mechanics overhaul working with Drew Hanlen. A reliable 3-point shot gives Bamba a completely different offensive ceiling, a ceiling that didn’t seem to exist with his old shot style being more of a fake shooter. Bamba has some coordination as a dribbler and proclivity as a passer (despite horrid assist stats at Texas) which he mostly showed in pre-college play, but I don’t think he projects as being difference-making at either. His frame also limits him establishing position on the inside in post ups, which can hopefully be remedied in time with girth addition and the ability to leverage. I haven’t finished the final stage of going over Bamba in-depth, so my position could change, but there is more offensive downside risk here than any of the above 5 players.
7.Robert Williams: Williams’ most projectable skill is his passing ability, which he shows creativeness and at times some quick read ability. He profiles as an iteration of Jordan Bell on short-rolls, which is where he could add some offensive value to a team outside of being a diver/finisher. Unfortunately Williams isn’t much of a dribbler coordination wise and can’t shoot at all. I’m not sure teams worry about his ability to post up effectively either at the next level, which limits his matchup dictator impact. Outside of passing, Williams isn’t bringing much value in terms of perimeter skill.
8.Mitchell Robinson: Robinson has been touted as a potential shooter and dribbler, but the tape I’ve seen of him screams “would you ever want him actually doing any of those things in a NBA game?” I’ve only really seen him in all-star circuit play and there isn’t much to take away passing wise from those. Robinson projects as mostly a play finisher in the Capela mold being a dynamic leaper, but not a big who is enabling five-out spacing play.
really would be huge to get Jontay for coach Bud to work with
Shoot, Move, and Communicate...
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