The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[WeekapaugGroove]

"The Suns can always find guards/wing players in free agency. But a physically dominant center who fits today’s NBA game? How can the Suns pass that up?" - Scott Bordow

The Suns should draft the best player regardless of who's available in FA. But with that said I don't agree with Bordow's statement; the PG FA class SUCKS.

[bwoolf2]

In 25 minutes Luka, RMD's point guard, takes almost as many free throws as Ayton does in 34 minutes in a league where the average center is 6'9. If that doesn't say something about who the more aggressive player is and who the better scorer is I don't know what does.

U of A played a **** motion offense the entire year that did not showcase Ayton's ability to its fullest and he still averaged 20 and 11. That's insane especially when a guy like Ristic is clogging the lane most games.

"Better scorer" is debatable

Better scorer is absolutely not debatable. Luka on the ball is eons ahead of Ayton. His dribble moves are more advanced for a guard than Ayton's post moves are for a center. If you watched Ayton play you'll notice that his pullup is nice.... because he rarely drives the ball. A significant chunk of Ayton's scoring was standing jumpers off the catch, while Luka can shoot off the catch and off the dribble. Ayton will for sure be a great finisher inside, but Luka has been posting great numbers in the paint the too, where he uses his soft touch and floaters to get shots over size. Is the difference in inside finishing going to make up for Doncic's far more advanced perimeter game? When you look at a scorer it is a matter of how many different places can you be a threat from and how big that threat is. Luka, much like our own Devin Booker, is a threat from damn near the whole court, and also like Booker, scores at an elite level inside for his position. I mean, seriously. If you had both, the game was on the line and your team needs a bucket, do you allow Luka or Ayton to isolate? Even if you decide to run a pick and roll for Ayton, you'd probably STILL have Luka making the pass. Ayton does a lot of things well and better than Luka but you just can't make a case for scoring.
You also cannot blame it all on U of A's system. Just last year U of A's Lauri Markkanen got to the line almost as much as Ayton in less minutes playing mostly on the perimeter and with lesser physical tools. But go on, make excuses and hide in the numbers we can't see to avoid talking the uncomfortable numbers we can.

At this point none of us know who is going to do what because neither of these guys have played a minute in the NBA yet. So these silly arguments that that they know Luka is going to be a better scorer or Ayton will be are dumb, you have no idea.

History tells us one of them is going to be a bust more than likely.

Me personally Ill take the big with the higher upside over the Euro sensation but thats just my preference.

There has not been a Euro league player that has played a lot of minutes in the league and come over and been a Hall of Famer and dominant in the NBA.

Dirk is the best Euro to ever play in the league but most of his game was developed here and he is one of the best shooting big man of all time.

Arguments can be made both ways but claiming to know one thing or another is just silly.

[thamadkant]

It's Ayton because Booker, Jackson and Warren will push for him..

Suns need a double double big who can finish

[Mulhollanddrive]

Every draft this century has either pick 1 or 2 failing to make All-Star.

To me all the strengths of both players are known what is unknown is why they won't meet expectations.

[bwgood77]

Can you pick Doncic no.1 if he defers to another guard like Dragic in FIBA as that will affect his ceiling without the ball in his hands.

Yeah, that's the good thing is people say he is extremely dangerous off the ball and often times was used that way and has no problem with doing whatever helps the team. They mixed things up against Panathinaikos and he went off ball to throw them off in game 2 (after going down 0-1 in a best of 5 series) and came back to win the series. That's why he would work so well with Booker and Jackson is that he doesn't mind playing off ball and thrives in both roles.

[JMac1]

1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona | Fr.

Height: 7'0" | Weight: 260 pounds | Age: 19 | Last Mock: 1
Stats: 20.1 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 61.2% FG

Ayton has become the consensus top pick around the league, fits neatly into the Suns’ situation, and appears set to remain in Arizona on draft night and in the foreseeable future. The top-rated prospect on our Big Board since the start of the season, Ayton has elite physical traits, a developing inside-out skill set and a superstar ceiling if all goes according to plan. He’ll immediately be one of the most athletic centers in the league. Phoenix is developing a youthful roster and conveniently has a hole at center, where Ayton would be able to step in immediately. He needs to get better defensively but has all the tools to be a quality rim protector. There’s a sense he may need to be pushed harder than some to reach his full potential, but Ayton has the best chance of anyone in the draft to become a franchise player.

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/05/21/2018-nba-mock-draft-combine-lottery-projections-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic-donte-divincenzo

I literally just said that on the Draft board.

[bwgood77]

Every draft this century has either pick 1 or 2 failing to make All-Star.

To me all the strengths of both players are known what is unknown is why they won't meet expectations.

What these two do is independent of the results of the past.

[Jstock12]

Every draft this century has either pick 1 or 2 failing to make All-Star.

To me all the strengths of both players are known what is unknown is why they won't meet expectations.

What these two do is independent of the results of the past.

That stat says more about the incompetency of NBA GMs than anything else.

[jcsunsfan]

Dan Bickley on local radio (writer here) just said that the Suns should give up 1, 16, next years first and a player for KAT.

He said that Suns fans are stupid if they do not want that.

[bwgood77]

Dan Bickley on local radio (writer here) just said that the Suns should give up 1, 16, next years first and a player for KAT.

He said that Suns fans are stupid if they do not want that.

Doesn't matter. They are not trading KAT, particularly not for picks after drafting high for over a decade and making the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.

[Jstock12]

Dan Bickley on local radio (writer here) just said that the Suns should give up 1, 16, next years first and a player for KAT.

He said that Suns fans are stupid if they do not want that.

That's the Embiid package, not KAT.

[oddity]

U of A played a **** motion offense the entire year that did not showcase Ayton's ability to its fullest and he still averaged 20 and 11. That's insane especially when a guy like Ristic is clogging the lane most games.

"Better scorer" is debatable

Better scorer is absolutely not debatable. Luka on the ball is eons ahead of Ayton. His dribble moves are more advanced for a guard than Ayton's post moves are for a center. If you watched Ayton play you'll notice that his pullup is nice.... because he rarely drives the ball. A significant chunk of Ayton's scoring was standing jumpers off the catch, while Luka can shoot off the catch and off the dribble. Ayton will for sure be a great finisher inside, but Luka has been posting great numbers in the paint the too, where he uses his soft touch and floaters to get shots over size. Is the difference in inside finishing going to make up for Doncic's far more advanced perimeter game? When you look at a scorer it is a matter of how many different places can you be a threat from and how big that threat is. Luka, much like our own Devin Booker, is a threat from damn near the whole court, and also like Booker, scores at an elite level inside for his position. I mean, seriously. If you had both, the game was on the line and your team needs a bucket, do you allow Luka or Ayton to isolate? Even if you decide to run a pick and roll for Ayton, you'd probably STILL have Luka making the pass. Ayton does a lot of things well and better than Luka but you just can't make a case for scoring.
You also cannot blame it all on U of A's system. Just last year U of A's Lauri Markkanen got to the line almost as much as Ayton in less minutes playing mostly on the perimeter and with lesser physical tools. But go on, make excuses and hide in the numbers we can't see to avoid talking the uncomfortable numbers we can.

At this point none of us know who is going to do what because neither of these guys have played a minute in the NBA yet. So these silly arguments that that they know Luka is going to be a better scorer or Ayton will be are dumb, you have no idea.

History tells us one of them is going to be a bust more than likely.

Me personally Ill take the big with the higher upside over the Euro sensation but thats just my preference.

There has not been a Euro league player that has played a lot of minutes in the league and come over and been a Hall of Famer and dominant in the NBA.

Dirk is the best Euro to ever play in the league but most of his game was developed here and he is one of the best shooting big man of all time.

Arguments can be made both ways but claiming to know one thing or another is just silly.

By your logic how do we know that freaking grayson allen isn't a better scorer than Luka bc "they never played a minute in the nba"
STOP HIDING BEHIND THE INFORMATION WE DON'T KNOW INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT WHAT WE DO KNOW!!!!!!!

Oh contraire. We CAN predict which player will score more efficiently. We will never know beyond a shadow of a doubt, and there are a million ex factors like coaching behind the scenes, training, work ethic, and injuries, but we can make arguments and we can get close. We KNOW what makes a successful scorer in the NBA today, and we can judge players based on how well they fit that rubric. For instance, a point guard that isn't good in the pnr will likely struggle, while a big man that lacks a motor will as well. One of the best singular stats for predicting how well a scorer a player can be is FTAs. A player that gets to the line often shows that he can get in positions that are disadvantageous to the defense. Getting to the line is so good for scorers bc it breeds consistency, taking a bunch of easy shots there instead of contested ones. When I point out that Luka gets to the line at a better rate than Ayton, it is direct evidence that suggests Luka will be a better scorer. He fits that rubric of high volume FT shooters. What you did is throw out the entire book of basketball theory because "none of know for sure". Talk about throwing out the baby with the bath water.

[bigfoot]

Doncic with a Eurocup Championship and a Euroleague Championship ... I expect he will add a NBA championship. Hope it is with the Suns.

[MrMiyagi]

Probably. Even though the "upside" thing has failed McDonough literally every time so far in the draft. Len, Chriss, Archie, Bender.

The one time he drafted a guy simply because he was a smart player who could shoot turned out to be by far his best pick. The second best player he drafted was an un-athletic college scorer with limited upside who could simply play.

You're making it seem like Ayton isn't a smart basketball player or leagues better than the players you listed at the same point.

I’ve yet to see it mentioned anywhere by anyone reputable that Ayton has high basketball IQ.

Please provide reputable sources saying he's low IQ.

Or, you know, actually watch the man play basketball?

[bhawk]

You're making it seem like Ayton isn't a smart basketball player or leagues better than the players you listed at the same point.

I’ve yet to see it mentioned anywhere by anyone reputable that Ayton has high basketball IQ.

Please provide reputable sources saying he's low IQ.

Or, you know, actually watch the man play basketball?

Let's just agree that he has medium BBIQ. I'll take a medium IQ player who is 7.1 tall, 250lbs, with a 7.5 wingspan and 9.3 standing reach. He is "light on his feet like a guard" and he is "super strong already but his frame looks like it can grow even more due to his wide shoulders. Great leaper." Oh, he also shoots 74% from the FT line and has a great turn-around jump shot.

For more see The Stepien... https://www.thestepien.com/deandre-ayton/

Ayton is the pick. There is no question in my mind.

[darealjuice]

It seems like the Doncic vs Ayton debate is based a lot on proven vs potential.

Doncic has had about as impressive of a year as you can have in Europe as far as accolades go: Eurobasket Champion, Euroleague MVP, 2nd straight Rising Star, Final Four MVP, and Euroleague Champion. 6'8" playmakers that are already adept out of the pick and roll don't grow on trees. His outside shooting leaves a bit to be desired even in the context of his shot selection, but his form and free throw shooting lead me to believe that his percentages should improve with less shot creation responsibility. He's not an amazing athlete, but he moves really well for a 19 year old that's 6'8" 230 and is very strong. My only concerns with him are how much his average explosiveness limits his upside on offense, how much his shooting improves in the NBA, and how he's going to do defending 1 on 1. Teams would have a tough time matching up defensively against a perimeter trio of Doncic, Booker, and JJ with a shooter at the 4 and an athletic screen/roll big at 5. I'd be comfortable letting JJ match up with the guards Doncic can't handle on defense, although I'm not sure how well Doncic will be able to guard NBA wings.

Ayton is one of 5 freshman to ever average 20+/10+ and has the best TS%, TRB%, AST%, TOV%, and BLK% of all 5, yet for some reason it felt like he should've done more. He has ideal center size and length, insane mobility and agility, elite athleticism, and the same build as many great past centers. His footwork is very good, his shot looks solid with translatable percentages, and he can do everything from bury you in the post and dunk on you to pick-and-pop and nail a 3. He settled for jump shots too much, but it's tough to blame him with how few post touches he got. The problem is that his defense left a lot to be desired: average at best shot blocking, poor weak-side rotations, near complete lack of boxing out, lack of physicality when defending the post. You can blame Miller for having a center play power forward all season and not adjusting his system so he isn't hard hedging and recovering on ball screens with no positive defenders on the team, but at times Ayton showed a troubling lack of awareness on off-ball defense that will need to improve to reach his ceiling. I don't think the league has left behind Ayton though. He showed all year that he has the ability to defend on the perimeter, and he'll be a nightmare for defenses to matchup with if small ball can't keep him off the court.

I personally very slightly lean Luka, but the rarity of a franchise center is definitely appealing. To me, Ayton is a bet on coaching. His subtle flaws like poor boxing out and screen setting are things that shouldn't be difficult to fix. The key to his ceiling will be unlocking his shot blocking and defensive potential, which is going to require a lot of experience and tape watching. If his defense never comes around, then his ceiling is something like a jumbo Amar'e with more size, more perimeter mobility, less explosion, less offensive intensity, and hope of a 3 point shot.

[bwgood77]

I’ve yet to see it mentioned anywhere by anyone reputable that Ayton has high basketball IQ.

Please provide reputable sources saying he's low IQ.

Or, you know, actually watch the man play basketball?

Let's just agree that he has medium BBIQ. I'll take a medium IQ player who is 7.1 tall, 250lbs, with a 7.5 wingspan and 9.3 standing reach. He is "light on his feet like a guard" and he is "super strong already but his frame looks like it can grow even more due to his wide shoulders. Great leaper." Oh, he also shoots 74% from the FT line and has a great turn-around jump shot.

For more see The Stepien... https://www.thestepien.com/deandre-ayton/

Ayton is the pick. There is no question in my mind.

Yeah, I wouldn't say Ayton is necessarily low IQ. I wouldn't call him high IQ either, particularly on defense. He can be a good passer though, despite averaging only 1.6 apg in 33.5 minutes, and he's good at scoring. The problems all lie in stuff like setting screens on offense and team defense.

But yeah, thanks for that link. The things that I guess are IQ related are:

Despite his immense physical tools, his steal and block rates of 0.8% and 6.3% are some of the worst for a lottery center in recent history. Some of that is due to Arizona’s scheme and playing out of position, but the numbers are emblematic of larger IQ concerns.

Not a reactive or aware help defender. Doesn’t rotate to the rim on penetration, misses back line rotations. Seems a step slow in processing what is going on around him and reacting.

Poor screen setter. Rarely makes contacts with defenders and despite his massive frame he sets screens with a narrow base. Tends to struggle with the “little things.”

[JMac1]

Dan Bickley on local radio (writer here) just said that the Suns should give up 1, 16, next years first and a player for KAT.

He said that Suns fans are stupid if they do not want that.

That's the Embiid package, not KAT.

That's a Jordan package........ Two first with one possibly being generational player (its not just the pick, its who is the pick) 16 and a player.........

[daspenguin]

U of A played a **** motion offense the entire year that did not showcase Ayton's ability to its fullest and he still averaged 20 and 11. That's insane especially when a guy like Ristic is clogging the lane most games.

"Better scorer" is debatable

Better scorer is absolutely not debatable. Luka on the ball is eons ahead of Ayton. His dribble moves are more advanced for a guard than Ayton's post moves are for a center. If you watched Ayton play you'll notice that his pullup is nice.... because he rarely drives the ball. A significant chunk of Ayton's scoring was standing jumpers off the catch, while Luka can shoot off the catch and off the dribble. Ayton will for sure be a great finisher inside, but Luka has been posting great numbers in the paint the too, where he uses his soft touch and floaters to get shots over size. Is the difference in inside finishing going to make up for Doncic's far more advanced perimeter game? When you look at a scorer it is a matter of how many different places can you be a threat from and how big that threat is. Luka, much like our own Devin Booker, is a threat from damn near the whole court, and also like Booker, scores at an elite level inside for his position. I mean, seriously. If you had both, the game was on the line and your team needs a bucket, do you allow Luka or Ayton to isolate? Even if you decide to run a pick and roll for Ayton, you'd probably STILL have Luka making the pass. Ayton does a lot of things well and better than Luka but you just can't make a case for scoring.
You also cannot blame it all on U of A's system. Just last year U of A's Lauri Markkanen got to the line almost as much as Ayton in less minutes playing mostly on the perimeter and with lesser physical tools. But go on, make excuses and hide in the numbers we can't see to avoid talking the uncomfortable numbers we can.

At this point none of us know who is going to do what because neither of these guys have played a minute in the NBA yet. So these silly arguments that that they know Luka is going to be a better scorer or Ayton will be are dumb, you have no idea.

History tells us one of them is going to be a bust more than likely.

Me personally Ill take the big with the higher upside over the Euro sensation but thats just my preference.

There has not been a Euro league player that has played a lot of minutes in the league and come over and been a Hall of Famer and dominant in the NBA.

Dirk is the best Euro to ever play in the league but most of his game was developed here and he is one of the best shooting big man of all time.

Arguments can be made both ways but claiming to know one thing or another is just silly.

Dirk, Porzingis and Markkanen, for example, were not even close to being as good as Doncic at the same age. If Markkanen were to play in Real the year he went to Arizona, he would've played exactly 0.0 minutes per game. Because he would've never made the Real roster at that time.

The reason why you don't see Euroleague players becoming HOF player is usually European players won't get drafted from the Euroleague at all. Most young players don't get playing time there, especially in a good team. There would've been one HOF player coming from the Euroleague years ago, but unfortunately his career was cut short due to tragic car accident. That would be Petrovic, and I think he still made the HOF. He would've been a top 2-guard in the league for years.

I saw enough of Doncic this season and also in the European Championships last year, that I'd take him with the first pick in a second. He's a great pick & roll player who will take some pressure away from Booker. If the Suns can sign a big guy like the Rockets Capela, that would be a much better combination than Ayton alone.

But by all means, if you want to pick for upside and athletic ability, that's one way to do it. It also backfires very often. Or you can take a proven guy who has shown he can play against NBA talent, and is still growing. It's not like Doncic doesn't have room to improve. He'll be much better when he's 22, and that's a scary thought. But he's already a great pick & roll player who makes his teammates better. Those are pretty nice qualities to have when you are trying to improve a terrible team.

[Mjee]

The pick and roll only works if the player rolling to the basket can catch and finish efficiently. Marquese and Dragan are not the best at that.