The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[Bob8]

Watch on YouTube

[MrMiyagi]

You are right. He's also a much better athlete, but when it comes to fundamental basketball skills, one is driving a ferrari and the other one has a bike with training wheels on. That's why you know what you get with one guy, and you are hoping for the best possible scenario for the other. I know that a guy who doesn't jump over cars isn't very exciting, but if you are a Suns fan you'll be very happy in a couple of years if they decide on Doncic.

Have to edit before I know it's coming. "You can improve your fundamental skills in the NBA." Yes and no. If you can't do the simplest of things at 18, like box out, or have some sort of an offensive game in the post or have the feel for blocking shots, those rarely improve. Just ask Dwight Howard, who is still looking for his go to move. Those weren't meant for Ayton by the way, just a general observation about teams continuing to pick for great athletes with upside who just can't play basketball. Looking at you, Kidd-Gilchrist.

Ayton has fundamental basketball skills. Ayton is way more skilled than Dwight Howard at the same age, and I'd argue even right now, this second.

Again, I don't believe you've watched Ayton play an entire game of basketball, because you just assume "He's big, tall and athletic, that's the only skills he has" and you're dead wrong. He can shoot the ball, he has legit post moves, he positions himself well for rebounds.

When am I going to start hearing "Shaq is only good because he was bigger and stronger than anyone else!" arguments? Seriously, just two seasons ago, we were fine drafting a tall dude who got no playing time in Europe 4th overall because he has some skills, moved well and shot well for a 7 footer, and an athletic dude with no real basketball skills 8th overall because he's an athletic freak. Now combine those two into a single player - who has proven waaaaaaaaay more already - and suddenly that's not worthy of the #1 pick.

Give me a **** break.

It could be my irony detector not working... But Shaq was a very skilled player. Even if he didn't have that brute strength, he would have still dominated his opponents on the offensive end.

That's my point. Shaq was skilled. So is Ayton.

[daspenguin]

Wait......Ginobili is 1st ballot Hall-of-Famer Material???

Not a chance!

Oh he will probably make it, its just going to take a long while for him to do so.

He isn't even European and came from Euroleague when he was 25. Which has nothing to do with this situation. Only two players that are comparable are Petrovic and Kukoc. Both were over 22 when they were Euroleague MVP's, and Kukoc was known as a horrendous defender. Petrovic was going to be a first ballot HOF player. That dude was awesome.

Petrovic was a Michael Redd level player,one of the better 2 guards in the league during his brief time but not some NBA All Time Great. Not knocking him but thats the truth. I doubt he would put together a prolific a career as Ginobili even if he arrived earlier

What do you consider "NBA great"? Scoring 22ppg and shooting 45% from three and 85% from the FT line, in a conference with Dumars, Miller and Jordan is pretty decent.

[bigfoot]

Sometimes wish the NBA had a final-four format. Would be super exciting.

[Kerrsed]

Wall+15 for 1+filler?

Just bouncing off some ideas from our board.

Wall and his KAJABIZILLION dollar contract are no where near what you think it is, im sorry.

You will find that many on the board here wouldnt trade the #16 for Wall straight up. That contracts effects not being able to keep Booker (Or damn near anyone else of value).

[Kerrsed]

Wait......Ginobili is 1st ballot Hall-of-Famer Material???

Not a chance!

Oh he will probably make it, its just going to take a long while for him to do so.

Five years after he retires ... and yes he is 1st ballot Hall-of-Fame material.


Awards
2× Italian League MVP: 2001, 2002
3× Italian League All-Star: 1999, 2000, 2001
EuroLeague Finals Most Valuable Player: 2001
2× EuroLeague Finals Top Scorer: 2001, 2002
FIBA AmeriCup Most Valuable Player: 2001
FIBA AmeriCup All-Tournament Team: 2011
Italian Cup Most Valuable Player: 2002
2× All-Tournament Team, FIBA World Cup: 2002, 2006
Gold Olimpia Award: 2003, 2004 (shared with Carlos Tévez)
2× NBA All-Star: 2005, 2011
50 Greatest EuroLeague Contributors: 2008
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award: 2008
Diamond Konex Award 2010, most important sportsman of the decade in Argentina
Bleacher Report NBA Legends 100
2× All-NBA Third Team: 2008, 2011

Titles
Italian League Champion: 2001
2× Italian Cup Winner: 2001, 2002
EuroLeague Champion: 2001
Triple Crown Winner: 2001
2× FIBA AmeriCup Gold: 2001, 2011
FIBA World Cup Silver: 2002
4× NBA Champion: 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014
Summer Olympic Games Gold: 2004
Summer Olympic Games Bronze: 2008
FIBA Diamond Ball Tournament Gold: 2008

Oh, ok you arnt talking about the NBA Hall-of Fame, got it.

[MrMiyagi]

Sometimes wish the NBA had a final-four format. Would be super exciting.

But then you'd have idiots claiming that a team was bad because they lost 1 game. Series are more fun, and more accurate.

[bigfoot]

Wait......Ginobili is 1st ballot Hall-of-Famer Material???

Not a chance!

Oh he will probably make it, its just going to take a long while for him to do so.

Five years after he retires ... and yes he is 1st ballot Hall-of-Fame material.


Awards
2× Italian League MVP: 2001, 2002
3× Italian League All-Star: 1999, 2000, 2001
EuroLeague Finals Most Valuable Player: 2001
2× EuroLeague Finals Top Scorer: 2001, 2002
FIBA AmeriCup Most Valuable Player: 2001
FIBA AmeriCup All-Tournament Team: 2011
Italian Cup Most Valuable Player: 2002
2× All-Tournament Team, FIBA World Cup: 2002, 2006
Gold Olimpia Award: 2003, 2004 (shared with Carlos Tévez)
2× NBA All-Star: 2005, 2011
50 Greatest EuroLeague Contributors: 2008
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award: 2008
Diamond Konex Award 2010, most important sportsman of the decade in Argentina
Bleacher Report NBA Legends 100
2× All-NBA Third Team: 2008, 2011

Titles
Italian League Champion: 2001
2× Italian Cup Winner: 2001, 2002
EuroLeague Champion: 2001
Triple Crown Winner: 2001
2× FIBA AmeriCup Gold: 2001, 2011
FIBA World Cup Silver: 2002
4× NBA Champion: 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014
Summer Olympic Games Gold: 2004
Summer Olympic Games Bronze: 2008
FIBA Diamond Ball Tournament Gold: 2008

Oh, ok you arnt talking about the NBA Hall-of Fame, got it.

There is no NBA Hall-of-Fame. It's the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Grant Hill was inducted based primarily on his two NCCA championships and his early NBA career as a first ballot inductee. Ginobili with a Euro championship, 4xNBA championships, 1 Olympic gold, and a host of other awards is a shoe in.

[Bob8]

Difference between Nba and Euroleague,

Watch on YouTube

[oddity]

At this point none of us know who is going to do what because neither of these guys have played a minute in the NBA yet. So these silly arguments that that they know Luka is going to be a better scorer or Ayton will be are dumb, you have no idea.

History tells us one of them is going to be a bust more than likely.

Me personally Ill take the big with the higher upside over the Euro sensation but thats just my preference.

There has not been a Euro league player that has played a lot of minutes in the league and come over and been a Hall of Famer and dominant in the NBA.

Dirk is the best Euro to ever play in the league but most of his game was developed here and he is one of the best shooting big man of all time.

Arguments can be made both ways but claiming to know one thing or another is just silly.

By your logic how do we know that freaking grayson allen isn't a better scorer than Luka bc "they never played a minute in the nba"
STOP HIDING BEHIND THE INFORMATION WE DON'T KNOW INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT WHAT WE DO KNOW!!!!!!!

Oh contraire. We CAN predict which player will score more efficiently. We will never know beyond a shadow of a doubt, and there are a million ex factors like coaching behind the scenes, training, work ethic, and injuries, but we can make arguments and we can get close. We KNOW what makes a successful scorer in the NBA today, and we can judge players based on how well they fit that rubric. For instance, a point guard that isn't good in the pnr will likely struggle, while a big man that lacks a motor will as well. One of the best singular stats for predicting how well a scorer a player can be is FTAs. A player that gets to the line often shows that he can get in positions that are disadvantageous to the defense. Getting to the line is so good for scorers bc it breeds consistency, taking a bunch of easy shots there instead of contested ones. When I point out that Luka gets to the line at a better rate than Ayton, it is direct evidence that suggests Luka will be a better scorer. He fits that rubric of high volume FT shooters. What you did is throw out the entire book of basketball theory because "none of know for sure". Talk about throwing out the baby with the bath water.

s

First of all dont yell at me in all caps like a little kid and second of all if we could predict it all there would never be any draft busts, Donovan Mitchell wouldnt have went 13th in last years draft or Booker 13th before that. The greatest QB of all time would not have gone on in the 6th round and so on and so on. Again you are making assumptions for which you have no idea what will or will not happen.

Don't get hurt by a few capital letters like a little kid then.
There are rules and exceptions to rules. Look at the past few drafts and you'll find that the higher the picks go, the more likely the star. There were strange and unpredictable happenstances for Fultz but I was warning this board of the Lonzo stock bubble because I saw obvious holes in his game. GMs are wrong more often than you know and take players based off pressure and hype like anyone else. Some programs scout extremely well and consistently fish players out of the ether of the second round (Spurs) and that isn't an accident. The draft isn't a total crapshoot and is somewhat predictable if you know what to look for. There is a reason Jayson Tatum showed he was going to be a star - He was in the 99th percentile low post and 91st in high post scoring, on massive usage in largely 1- v-1 situations. We can see all of that and recognize why he should be taken at the top of the draft, and because Danny Ainge's cunning is backed by a tremendous coaching staff, he understood why Tatum was his guy.
One thing you miss is how scouts evolve their scouting methods based on past mistakes. Booker and Mitchell were taken as late sleepers for a reason; Mitchell was overlooked as a name behind a load of big name point guards - Booker for his minuscule role on a ridiculously loaded squad. But the funny thing is that if you go back and take a look at Booker's high school tape, you see him look a little more like the rookie we got than the freshman displayed as a sixth man in Kentucky's juggernaut squad:

Watch on YouTube

In some cases, GMs and scouts overlook players because of names that were touted for years are going up against players that may be just as good now, but developed late and lacked the same pedigree. In others, GMs don't see a players true value because he is trapped in a system as a bench player, even though overlooked high school footage hinted otherwise. We know why Mitch and Book are great, but the question is whether a few select men in high pressure situations see that - in time.

And Luka is likewise great. He passes all tests in terms of IQ, pedigree, production. It is a matter of whether one man in a high pressure situation sees that.

[Superhuman]

You are right. He's also a much better athlete, but when it comes to fundamental basketball skills, one is driving a ferrari and the other one has a bike with training wheels on. That's why you know what you get with one guy, and you are hoping for the best possible scenario for the other. I know that a guy who doesn't jump over cars isn't very exciting, but if you are a Suns fan you'll be very happy in a couple of years if they decide on Doncic.

Have to edit before I know it's coming. "You can improve your fundamental skills in the NBA." Yes and no. If you can't do the simplest of things at 18, like box out, or have some sort of an offensive game in the post or have the feel for blocking shots, those rarely improve. Just ask Dwight Howard, who is still looking for his go to move. Those weren't meant for Ayton by the way, just a general observation about teams continuing to pick for great athletes with upside who just can't play basketball. Looking at you, Kidd-Gilchrist.

Ayton has fundamental basketball skills. Ayton is way more skilled than Dwight Howard at the same age, and I'd argue even right now, this second.

Again, I don't believe you've watched Ayton play an entire game of basketball, because you just assume "He's big, tall and athletic, that's the only skills he has" and you're dead wrong. He can shoot the ball, he has legit post moves, he positions himself well for rebounds.

When am I going to start hearing "Shaq is only good because he was bigger and stronger than anyone else!" arguments? Seriously, just two seasons ago, we were fine drafting a tall dude who got no playing time in Europe 4th overall because he has some skills, moved well and shot well for a 7 footer, and an athletic dude with no real basketball skills 8th overall because he's an athletic freak. Now combine those two into a single player - who has proven waaaaaaaaay more already - and suddenly that's not worthy of the #1 pick.

Give me a **** break.

I guess you missed the part where I said "this wasn't meant for Ayton by the way". And I've seen him play. He's very good, but fundamentally he's not even in the same league with Doncic. I'm talking overall game from passing to basketball IQ.

I'm just curious, but why do you think Ayton has a lower basketball IQ compared to Doncic? Everyone here keeps talking about Ayton's poor basketball IQ. The only reasons I've heard from people here are due to his poor defense, which we already knew about and is an obvious concern. But the same can be said about Doncic's poor defense too. I was able to catch a little bit of the euroleague playoffs and from what I saw, Doncic at times didn't get back on defense and recover. He also had bad help defense in certain situations. So what else contributes to his lower basketball IQ because they both have lackluster defense.

[Kerrsed]

Oh, ok you arnt talking about the NBA Hall-of Fame, got it.

There is no NBA Hall-of-Fame. It's the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Grant Hill was inducted based primarily on his two NCCA championships and his early NBA career as a first ballot inductee. Ginobili with a Euro championship, 4xNBA championships, 1 Olympic gold, and a host of other awards is a shoe in.

I know. Once i saw you started listing all the Euro accomplishments i remembered, hence the winky face.

[bigfoot]

31 days to NBA draft ... I need to join a 12 step group for Realgm

[MrTwister]

FWIW in direct conversation with Givony (DX) in Belgrade he told me that Ayton is going to be Suns pick baring some big trade or huge red flag found.

[thamadkant]

I spent the last 4 days watching about 13 FULL games of Ayton and Doncic And replaying key plays and how they moved both sides... I'm no scout but eye test alone tells me that...

Ayton is very skilled down low more than prime Howard... In regards to array of moves and touch. He's got amazing soft hands around the rim.
He has a decent front face game and a nice mid range jump shot. That form is very good and he elevates high... Hard to block...

He's got amazing mobility and so light on his feet.
Defensively he's out at the perimeter I would say 60 or more percent of the time. He lacked aggressiveness in help defense... He just watches.


Doncic is amazing too. But I've come to the conclusion that he is not a PG but a Point Forward with potential to be Combo Porward ...

[DirtyDez]

:lol: Gambo is going off about not trading the pick for KAT and not drafting Doncic

As in keeping it? I heard Bickley earlier and he seems to be on the opposite end of the spectrum. Bickley was creaming his draws over Kyrie last year. He’s just a sucker for a blockbuster storyline.

[bwoolf2]

By your logic how do we know that freaking grayson allen isn't a better scorer than Luka bc "they never played a minute in the nba"
STOP HIDING BEHIND THE INFORMATION WE DON'T KNOW INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT WHAT WE DO KNOW!!!!!!!

Oh contraire. We CAN predict which player will score more efficiently. We will never know beyond a shadow of a doubt, and there are a million ex factors like coaching behind the scenes, training, work ethic, and injuries, but we can make arguments and we can get close. We KNOW what makes a successful scorer in the NBA today, and we can judge players based on how well they fit that rubric. For instance, a point guard that isn't good in the pnr will likely struggle, while a big man that lacks a motor will as well. One of the best singular stats for predicting how well a scorer a player can be is FTAs. A player that gets to the line often shows that he can get in positions that are disadvantageous to the defense. Getting to the line is so good for scorers bc it breeds consistency, taking a bunch of easy shots there instead of contested ones. When I point out that Luka gets to the line at a better rate than Ayton, it is direct evidence that suggests Luka will be a better scorer. He fits that rubric of high volume FT shooters. What you did is throw out the entire book of basketball theory because "none of know for sure". Talk about throwing out the baby with the bath water.

s

First of all dont yell at me in all caps like a little kid and second of all if we could predict it all there would never be any draft busts, Donovan Mitchell wouldnt have went 13th in last years draft or Booker 13th before that. The greatest QB of all time would not have gone on in the 6th round and so on and so on. Again you are making assumptions for which you have no idea what will or will not happen.

Don't get hurt by a few capital letters like a little kid then.
There are rules and exceptions to rules. Look at the past few drafts and you'll find that the higher the picks go, the more likely the star. There were strange and unpredictable happenstances for Fultz but I was warning this board of the Lonzo stock bubble because I saw obvious holes in his game. GMs are wrong more often than you know and take players based off pressure and hype like anyone else. Some programs scout extremely well and consistently fish players out of the ether of the second round (Spurs) and that isn't an accident. The draft isn't a total crapshoot and is somewhat predictable if you know what to look for. There is a reason Jayson Tatum showed he was going to be a star - He was in the 99th percentile low post and 91st in high post scoring, on massive usage in largely 1- v-1 situations. We can see all of that and recognize why he should be taken at the top of the draft, and because Danny Ainge's cunning is backed by a tremendous coaching staff, he understood why Tatum was his guy.
One thing you miss is how scouts evolve their scouting methods based on past mistakes. Booker and Mitchell were taken as late sleepers for a reason; Mitchell was overlooked as a name behind a load of big name point guards - Booker for his minuscule role on a ridiculously loaded squad. But the funny thing is that if you go back and take a look at Booker's high school tape, you see him look a little more like the rookie we got than the freshman displayed as a sixth man in Kentucky's juggernaut squad:

Watch on YouTube

In some cases, GMs and scouts overlook players because of names that were touted for years are going up against players that may be just as good now, but developed late and lacked the same pedigree. In others, GMs don't see a players true value because he is trapped in a system as a bench player, even though overlooked high school footage hinted otherwise. We know why Mitch and Book are great, but the question is whether a few select men in high pressure situations see that - in time.

And Luka is likewise great. He passes all tests in terms of IQ, pedigree, production. It is a matter of whether one man in a high pressure situation sees that.

Clearly the Suns should hire you as you would be the best GM in the league as you can clearly predict and see what none of the rest of them can, GTFOH...

[Dr Manute]

For those people who think Luka is not athletic:

Watch on YouTube

[ATTL]

:lol: Gambo is going off about not trading the pick for KAT and not drafting Doncic

As in keeping it? I heard Bickley earlier and he seems to be on the opposite end of the spectrum. Bickley was creaming his draws over Kyrie last year. He’s just a sucker for a blockbuster storyline.

There are a few guys on that station that are still bitter about not getting Kyrie. KAT for 1 is much more agreeable than that Kyrie abomination last year.

[oddity]

Clearly the Suns should hire you as you would be the best GM in the league as you can clearly predict and see what none of the rest of them can, GTFOH...

I get things wrong. But the important part is refining your strategy and learning which patterns to look for and what basketball theory fits where.
It's a game to me and I love it, and I have an opinion about it.
At least don't hide in this weak ass middle ground of "I can't judge because there are some unexpected busts and steals" like you can't make hypotheses based on what we DO know GTFFFFFFFFFFFFOH.