The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[Mulhollanddrive]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

[TheLogician]

Trade for Kemba and extend him for near-max while JJ and Ayton are on rookie contracts. It's the best way to compete right away.

Agree 100% suns would be exciting again

Kemba is worth nowhere near the max. Not even close.

Someone will give him max or near max. Lots of teams will have cap room in 2019.

[Villalobos]

Would it make any of the pro-Doncic guys less uneasy if they took Ayton considering the Suns have scouted Doncic for 3 years and McD has never been hesitant on drafting European players? All that considered and they still pass?

Not really. McD is enamored with upside, so even if he thinks Doncic is amazing and can help the team right away McD might pick the guy who he daydreams becoming Kareem/Shaq 2.0 or whatever because he has all the physical tools required.

[8on]

The NBA has done everything possible to eliminate the big man and support small ball ... 1) 3 second defensive rule, 2) allowing big men to get mugged in the post without making calls, 3) no handing checking when the offensive player is facing basket, 4) five second back to the basket violation. Couple that with analytics that show posting up is the worst percentage shot and that corner threes are the best and you can see why big men are done in the NBA, especially on the offensive side of the game.

For those you saying "but Ayton can hit the three" he shot 17% from NBA range in college. Ayton is athletically freaky but with a lot of question marks on defense, motor, and BBIQ. Does he want to play PF and not C. Can he be a defensive rim protector with the rules coupled with his already questionable defense?

Thing is coach Miller raved that Ayton put on 20 pounds of muscle in 2 months of summer weight lifting work at UofA. Okay so have Doncic hit the weights this summer from July through October and he will be a terror for opposing teams to deal with. We need complete basketball players. Doncic is the real deal in terms of skills, IQ, scoring, rebounding, vision, leadership, winning mentality, and maybe lacks the elite athleticism but can move towards that with a bit of work this summer. Nash could get his shot and involve other teammates and his was not elite as an athlete. Doncic is the right choice.

I don’t care about that “big man” stuff. I just want super efficient shots. In the NBA, that is Ayton. I don’t get elite scoring from LD at all. No guarantee that he even makes it to 37% from 3 in the NBA. If he can’t cut it as an outside shooter he has to make it midrange or inside. That’s Ayton territory, of course.

Towns shot 25% on college threes, and look at him now.

[8on]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Capela and Looney can’t shoot.

[AtheJ415]

Agree 100% suns would be exciting again

Kemba is worth nowhere near the max. Not even close.

Someone will give him max or near max. Lots of teams will have cap room in 2019.

Just because someone will do it does not mean we should nor does it mean he is worth it. He is an above average starting PG but not an all-NBA guy and I sure as hell don't want to pay a guy like Kemba $40 mil a year into his mid 30s.

[JMac1]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Yea. I guess you prefer missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3.......ft missed 3, missed 3, ft.

[lilfishi22]

Would it make any of the pro-Doncic guys less uneasy if they took Ayton considering the Suns have scouted Doncic for 3 years and McD has never been hesitant on drafting European players? All that considered and they still pass?

I think the only way I'd be less uneasy of Doncic is if he straight busts.Suns have certainly been scouting Ayton since HS as well so if they took Doncic over Ayton, it would tell me the same thing.

[Villalobos]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Capela and Looney can’t shoot.

Fun (well, not so fun) fact: in college Looney shot better from 3 on more attempts than Ayton.

[DirtyDez]

Would it make any of the pro-Doncic guys less uneasy if they took Ayton considering the Suns have scouted Doncic for 3 years and McD has never been hesitant on drafting European players? All that considered and they still pass?

I think the only way I'd be less uneasy of Doncic is if he straight busts.Suns have certainly been scouting Ayton since HS as well so if they took Doncic over Ayton, it would tell me the same thing.

I agree to an extent. Scouting a player playing professionally is different than a kid playing high schoolers. Not sure how much you can take from that besides “he’s a foot taller than everybody and dominating”.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Yea. I guess you prefer missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3.......ft missed 3, missed 3, ft.

The fans deserve a chance to see what an all-time great big man could do to "the modern offense." Give me dunks or give me death!!! Give me Ayton!!!!

[8on]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Capela and Looney can’t shoot.

Fun (well, not so fun) fact: in college Looney shot better from 3 on more attempts than Ayton.

Interesting. Wonder why it hasn’t carried over

[8on]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Yea. I guess you prefer missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3.......ft missed 3, missed 3, ft.

The fans deserve a chance to see what an all-time great big man could do to "the modern offense." Give me dunks or give me death!!! Give me Ayton!!!!

It’s an unbelievable wrinkle. The traditional big man was dead since at least 2012....until it isn’t? Can’t play PJ on Ayton, now, can you?

[Villalobos]

Capela and Looney can’t shoot.

Fun (well, not so fun) fact: in college Looney shot better from 3 on more attempts than Ayton.

Interesting. Wonder why it hasn’t carried over

Looney's FT was 10% lower though, so Ayton has that going for him.

[bigfoot]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Yea. I guess you prefer missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3.......ft missed 3, missed 3, ft.

Doesn't matter because whichever team wins in the West playing with 24-minute per game non-offensive centers is going to win the Championship. Centers are relegated to bench in crunch time because scoring is more important. Centers will be abused in the pick n roll at crunch time. They become a defensive liability because big men are always slower than the smaller, faster guys in the pick-n-roll. Analytics have proven this time-and-again. Ayton will be liability, especially as he ages and gets more mass to have to move around.

[lilfishi22]

The NBA has done everything possible to eliminate the big man and support small ball ... 1) 3 second defensive rule, 2) allowing big men to get mugged in the post without making calls, 3) no handing checking when the offensive player is facing basket, 4) five second back to the basket violation. Couple that with analytics that show posting up is the worst percentage shot and that corner threes are the best and you can see why big men are done in the NBA, especially on the offensive side of the game.

For those you saying "but Ayton can hit the three" he shot 17% from NBA range in college. Ayton is athletically freaky but with a lot of question marks on defense, motor, and BBIQ. Does he want to play PF and not C. Can he be a defensive rim protector with the rules coupled with his already questionable defense?

Thing is coach Miller raved that Ayton put on 20 pounds of muscle in 2 months of summer weight lifting work at UofA. Okay so have Doncic hit the weights this summer from July through October and he will be a terror for opposing teams to deal with. We need complete basketball players. Doncic is the real deal in terms of skills, IQ, scoring, rebounding, vision, leadership, winning mentality, and maybe lacks the elite athleticism but can move towards that with a bit of work this summer. Nash could get his shot and involve other teammates and his was not elite as an athlete. Doncic is the right choice.

I don’t care about that “big man” stuff. I just want super efficient shots. In the NBA, that is Ayton. I don’t get elite scoring from LD at all. No guarantee that he even makes it to 37% from 3 in the NBA. If he can’t cut it as an outside shooter he has to make it midrange or inside. That’s Ayton territory, of course.

Towns shot 25% on college threes, and look at him now.

When asked if Marshall didn’t score in the paint enough, D’Antoni asked a reporter if he’s ever watched the NBA. He then broke down the maths behind why threes are so popular (via Craig Meyer of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

“You see those top three teams. Golden State — do they work it [inside]? My brother in Houston, the biggest turnaround in the league — do they work it in? You can go get any computer and run what the best shots are and it will tell you the post-up is the worst shot in basketball. If you want to run down and try to get it [in the paint] to shoot over somebody, then you’re beating analytics. The best shot in basketball is that corner three. The next-best shot in basketball is any other three. Other than free throws, which we try to do, when you get to the foul line, you score 1.5 points every time you go to the foul line in the pros. It just trickles down. It’s the same thing for college kids…”

When a reporter began to ask a question, D’Antoni cut him off, saying, “I haven’t finished my damn analytics story yet.” He continued:

“If you can get a layup and it’s clean — it’s not one that’s highly contested — it’s [worth] 1.8 points [per attempt]. It’s 1.3 from that corner, 1.27. Do you know what a post-up is, with a guy standing over top of you? It’s 0.78. So you run your team down there and we’ll see how long you can stay with teams that can play the other way. You’ve seen it in the NBA. The last two championships have been Cleveland and Golden State. What do they do? You don’t see anybody post up. They just spread that thing out and go.”

D’Antoni said he changed his coaching philosophy years ago, saying he used to coach like a “dummy” by trying to force post-ups.

As for Towns, he's become a generational shooter as a big. He also only shot 8 attempts from the 3 so 25% is a tiny sample

[bigfoot]

Yea. I guess you prefer missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3.......ft missed 3, missed 3, ft.

The fans deserve a chance to see what an all-time great big man could do to "the modern offense." Give me dunks or give me death!!! Give me Ayton!!!!

It’s an unbelievable wrinkle. The traditional big man was dead since at least 2012....until it isn’t? Can’t play PJ on Ayton, now, can you?

Until Ayton tries to post up PJ and takes the worst percentage shot in the NBA and misses. Then Ayton can't cover the guard in the switch on the pick-n-roll on the other end. Over many possessions the 3ptr will beat the post-up every time.

[Villalobos]

Towns basically didn't shoot in college. His sample size was like 1/3 of Ayton's whose sample size is already small. And Towns had a super high FT% for a big.

[JMac1]

Bigs look obsolete between GSW and HOU.

Green and Tucker playing Center to close the game.

Yea. I guess you prefer missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3, missed 3.......ft missed 3, missed 3, ft.

Doesn't matter because whichever team wins in the West playing with 24-minute per game non-offensive centers is going to win the Championship. Centers are relegated to bench in crunch time because scoring is more important. Centers will be abused in the pick n roll at crunch time. They become a defensive liability because big men are always slower than the smaller, faster guys in the pick-n-roll. Analytics have proven this time-and-again. Ayton will be liability, especially as he ages and gets more mass to have to move around.

As long as the Center gets to abuse the little guy on the other end. Makes them even.

[JMac1]

The fans deserve a chance to see what an all-time great big man could do to "the modern offense." Give me dunks or give me death!!! Give me Ayton!!!!

It’s an unbelievable wrinkle. The traditional big man was dead since at least 2012....until it isn’t? Can’t play PJ on Ayton, now, can you?

Until Ayton tries to post up PJ and takes the worst percentage shot in the NBA and misses. Then Ayton can't cover the guard in the switch on the pick-n-roll on the other end. Over many possessions the 3ptr will beat the post-up every time.

A dunk is the best shot.