The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[Mulhollanddrive]

3 pointers = 66 points on 65 shots (1.01 points per shot)
2 pointers = 88 points on 101 shots (0.87 points per shot)

So even with all those missed 3s they were still the better shot.

The teams that score with big men could make it work but it's an unproven model this era.

[TheLogician]

It's not like Doncic is knock down from three, either. 31% in EuroLeague and EuroBasket.

[lilfishi22]

Would it make any of the pro-Doncic guys less uneasy if they took Ayton considering the Suns have scouted Doncic for 3 years and McD has never been hesitant on drafting European players? All that considered and they still pass?

I think the only way I'd be less uneasy of Doncic is if he straight busts.Suns have certainly been scouting Ayton since HS as well so if they took Doncic over Ayton, it would tell me the same thing.

I agree to an extent. Scouting a player playing professionally is different than a kid playing high schoolers. Not sure how much you can take from that besides “he’s a foot taller than everybody and dominating”.

I agree to an extent as well regarding scouting. With Ayton, it's “he’s a foot taller than everybody and dominating”. With Doncic it's, "he's 16-17 not fully developed teen and playing against adult professionals".

I know it's not good to bring politics into here but I've heard people say that whether you like Trump or not, you should root for him to do well because if he does well, then America does well. So whoever we take, I'll root for him because if this player does well, then we're going to Sizzler

[bigfoot]

It’s an unbelievable wrinkle. The traditional big man was dead since at least 2012....until it isn’t? Can’t play PJ on Ayton, now, can you?

Until Ayton tries to post up PJ and takes the worst percentage shot in the NBA and misses. Then Ayton can't cover the guard in the switch on the pick-n-roll on the other end. Over many possessions the 3ptr will beat the post-up every time.

A dunk is the best shot.

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Didn't PJ Tucker shut down Anthony Davis in the post.

2018 season:
Davis 0.97 points per posessions from Post Ups
Davis 1.01 points per posessions from 3s

[lilfishi22]

It's not like Doncic is knock down from three, either. 31% in EuroLeague and EuroBasket.

His shot should be translatable to NBA 3's. He also has a same size of 544 attempts from the 3 at a .333 clip. It's not elite but at that volume, shooting form and FT%, I'm many times more confident in his 3pt shoot translating in the NBA than Ayton's.

[JMac1]

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Compare at your own peril.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Those highlight videos can do more harm than good though as you don't really get an accurate picture of a prospect.

EG. Marquese Chriss had a great one from memory.

[8on]

The NBA has done everything possible to eliminate the big man and support small ball ... 1) 3 second defensive rule, 2) allowing big men to get mugged in the post without making calls, 3) no handing checking when the offensive player is facing basket, 4) five second back to the basket violation. Couple that with analytics that show posting up is the worst percentage shot and that corner threes are the best and you can see why big men are done in the NBA, especially on the offensive side of the game.

For those you saying "but Ayton can hit the three" he shot 17% from NBA range in college. Ayton is athletically freaky but with a lot of question marks on defense, motor, and BBIQ. Does he want to play PF and not C. Can he be a defensive rim protector with the rules coupled with his already questionable defense?

Thing is coach Miller raved that Ayton put on 20 pounds of muscle in 2 months of summer weight lifting work at UofA. Okay so have Doncic hit the weights this summer from July through October and he will be a terror for opposing teams to deal with. We need complete basketball players. Doncic is the real deal in terms of skills, IQ, scoring, rebounding, vision, leadership, winning mentality, and maybe lacks the elite athleticism but can move towards that with a bit of work this summer. Nash could get his shot and involve other teammates and his was not elite as an athlete. Doncic is the right choice.

I don’t care about that “big man” stuff. I just want super efficient shots. In the NBA, that is Ayton. I don’t get elite scoring from LD at all. No guarantee that he even makes it to 37% from 3 in the NBA. If he can’t cut it as an outside shooter he has to make it midrange or inside. That’s Ayton territory, of course.

Towns shot 25% on college threes, and look at him now.

When asked if Marshall didn’t score in the paint enough, D’Antoni asked a reporter if he’s ever watched the NBA. He then broke down the maths behind why threes are so popular (via Craig Meyer of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

“You see those top three teams. Golden State — do they work it [inside]? My brother in Houston, the biggest turnaround in the league — do they work it in? You can go get any computer and run what the best shots are and it will tell you the post-up is the worst shot in basketball. If you want to run down and try to get it [in the paint] to shoot over somebody, then you’re beating analytics. The best shot in basketball is that corner three. The next-best shot in basketball is any other three. Other than free throws, which we try to do, when you get to the foul line, you score 1.5 points every time you go to the foul line in the pros. It just trickles down. It’s the same thing for college kids…”

When a reporter began to ask a question, D’Antoni cut him off, saying, “I haven’t finished my damn analytics story yet.” He continued:

“If you can get a layup and it’s clean — it’s not one that’s highly contested — it’s [worth] 1.8 points [per attempt]. It’s 1.3 from that corner, 1.27. Do you know what a post-up is, with a guy standing over top of you? It’s 0.78. So you run your team down there and we’ll see how long you can stay with teams that can play the other way. You’ve seen it in the NBA. The last two championships have been Cleveland and Golden State. What do they do? You don’t see anybody post up. They just spread that thing out and go.”

D’Antoni said he changed his coaching philosophy years ago, saying he used to coach like a “dummy” by trying to force post-ups.

As for Towns, he's become a generational shooter as a big. He also only shot 8 attempts from the 3 so 25% is a tiny sample

A college scoring big man like Ayton has not existed since 1992. If anyone can make it work, it’s him.

I submit that he tries to do too much sometimes, but that’s because he’s 19 and he’s not that far from being able to pull those things off.

If he can do it consistently, it’s game over for every other big man.

[AtheJ415]

Until Ayton tries to post up PJ and takes the worst percentage shot in the NBA and misses. Then Ayton can't cover the guard in the switch on the pick-n-roll on the other end. Over many possessions the 3ptr will beat the post-up every time.

A dunk is the best shot.

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

Except for bigs who can shoot 3s AND have the size to dominate the glass. The idea that dominant bigs are extinct is insane. They aren't extinct, they just dominate in different ways now. Anthony Davis, Zingis, Cousins, even Lebron (who is a 6'9" F who could not win a title until he learned to play in the post, which happened well after 2005), etc. are plenty dominant. They just don't have other HOF's on their teams to carry them to the finals like GS and Houston have.

[AtheJ415]

Those highlight videos can do more harm than good though as you don't really get an accurate picture of a prospect.

EG. Marquese Chriss had a great one from memory.

Marquese was 2nd team all rookie. He's also only 20 and ended the year well. Not like he is a finished product at all.

[TheLogician]

It's not like Doncic is knock down from three, either. 31% in EuroLeague and EuroBasket.

His shot should be translatable to NBA 3's. He also has a same size of 544 attempts from the 3 at a .333 clip. It's not elite but at that volume, shooting form and FT%, I'm many times more confident in his 3pt shoot translating in the NBA than Ayton's.

His shooting is actually mediocre for a wing. It will get better but unlikely to become elite. His instincts and size are his bread and butter.

[JMac1]

Those highlight videos can do more harm than good though as you don't really get an accurate picture of a prospect.

EG. Marquese Chriss had a great one from memory.

I have a very accurate idea of what they can do. Doesn't show me what they can't do though.

I saw Ayton play a few complete games live.

[8on]

There are two things we must always consider:
1) capability
2) effectiveness

for example, Embiid could occasionally do some things as a college freshman that would blow your mind. Cousins could handle as a 19 year old. That’s cool.

Ayton tried to do more than he’s good at. I’m not denying that. What he can do is shoot with range, extremely efficiently. Try putting a hand in his face. You can’t: he’s 7’1”. 32 pts on 16 shots, 14 rebounds mostly on 16 footers? That’s ridiculous.

As a defensive prospect, OK. He’s bad.

As an offensive prospect, none of the current big men were close at his age. That’s what the fuss is about. Simplifying him into “a big man who doesn’t play defense” or “archaic in this day and age” is just wrong. There was nothing to indicate AD would have 3 pt range at the next level. He shot under 30 percent in 2016-17.

More when I think of it

[lilfishi22]

I don’t care about that “big man” stuff. I just want super efficient shots. In the NBA, that is Ayton. I don’t get elite scoring from LD at all. No guarantee that he even makes it to 37% from 3 in the NBA. If he can’t cut it as an outside shooter he has to make it midrange or inside. That’s Ayton territory, of course.

Towns shot 25% on college threes, and look at him now.

When asked if Marshall didn’t score in the paint enough, D’Antoni asked a reporter if he’s ever watched the NBA. He then broke down the maths behind why threes are so popular (via Craig Meyer of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

“You see those top three teams. Golden State — do they work it [inside]? My brother in Houston, the biggest turnaround in the league — do they work it in? You can go get any computer and run what the best shots are and it will tell you the post-up is the worst shot in basketball. If you want to run down and try to get it [in the paint] to shoot over somebody, then you’re beating analytics. The best shot in basketball is that corner three. The next-best shot in basketball is any other three. Other than free throws, which we try to do, when you get to the foul line, you score 1.5 points every time you go to the foul line in the pros. It just trickles down. It’s the same thing for college kids…”

When a reporter began to ask a question, D’Antoni cut him off, saying, “I haven’t finished my damn analytics story yet.” He continued:

“If you can get a layup and it’s clean — it’s not one that’s highly contested — it’s [worth] 1.8 points [per attempt]. It’s 1.3 from that corner, 1.27. Do you know what a post-up is, with a guy standing over top of you? It’s 0.78. So you run your team down there and we’ll see how long you can stay with teams that can play the other way. You’ve seen it in the NBA. The last two championships have been Cleveland and Golden State. What do they do? You don’t see anybody post up. They just spread that thing out and go.”

D’Antoni said he changed his coaching philosophy years ago, saying he used to coach like a “dummy” by trying to force post-ups.

As for Towns, he's become a generational shooter as a big. He also only shot 8 attempts from the 3 so 25% is a tiny sample

A college scoring big man like Ayton has not existed since 1992. If anyone can make it work, it’s him.

I submit that he tries to do too much sometimes, but that’s because he’s 19 and he’s not that far from being able to pull those things off.

If he can do it consistently, it’s game over for every other big man.

The modern game has passed by dominant scoring big men. The way I see it, the risk is not whether a Doncic type wing initiator fits an elite modern NBA team that can win a championship, the risk is betting that the modern NBA will shift back to favoring offensive big men (legit 6-11, 7ft 250lb bigs).

[bigfoot]

Didn't PJ Tucker shut down Anthony Davis in the post.

2018 season:
Davis 0.97 points per posessions from Post Ups
Davis 1.01 points per posessions from 3s

This is so important. Over a 100 possession game a three point shooting Davis beats a postup Davis by 4 points (101 to 97). Consider that Davis brings elite defense to go along with his all-around offensive game. Note that Anthony Davis is a marginal three point shooter, hitting .340 for the season and .309 for his career. A defensive oriented 6-9 F than can hit closer to .400 on the three pointers scores 1.2 points per possession. Beats a post up Davis by 120 to 97 in a 100 possession game. This is why analytics and three point shooting rule the league now. It is an absolute must to put three point shooters at all the positions.

Ayton's defense is suspect. His post up game is unproven. His three point shooting (17% at NBA range) is questionable. This is a big chance to take on a 1-and-done player. Too big for me. I'll taken the proven Euroleague star every day of the week. A .333 three point shooting Doncic scores 1 point per possession which will still beat Anthony Davis post up skills. Doncic will be closer to a .400 shooter at three point range. Ayton will be nowhere near Anthony Davis level of offense or defense.

[lilfishi22]

It's not like Doncic is knock down from three, either. 31% in EuroLeague and EuroBasket.

His shot should be translatable to NBA 3's. He also has a same size of 544 attempts from the 3 at a .333 clip. It's not elite but at that volume, shooting form and FT%, I'm many times more confident in his 3pt shoot translating in the NBA than Ayton's.

His shooting is actually mediocre for a wing. It will get better but unlikely to become elite. His instincts and size are his bread and butter.

mmmm ok in what way is it mediocre?

[8on]

As for Towns, he's become a generational shooter as a big. He also only shot 8 attempts from the 3 so 25% is a tiny sample

A college scoring big man like Ayton has not existed since 1992. If anyone can make it work, it’s him.

I submit that he tries to do too much sometimes, but that’s because he’s 19 and he’s not that far from being able to pull those things off.

If he can do it consistently, it’s game over for every other big man.

The modern game has passed by dominant scoring big men. The way I see it, the risk is not whether a Doncic type wing initiator fits an elite modern NBA team that can win a championship, the risk is betting that the modern NBA will shift back to favoring offensive big men (legit 6-11, 7ft 250lb bigs).

Only because there are no traditional big men in the league.

A 60% shot is a 60% shot. Call it 40% from 3 or 60% from 2. It’s the same to me

[JMac1]

Didn't PJ Tucker shut down Anthony Davis in the post.

2018 season:
Davis 0.97 points per posessions from Post Ups
Davis 1.01 points per posessions from 3s

This is so important. Over a 100 possession game a three point shooting Davis beats a postup Davis by 4 points (101 to 97). Consider that Davis brings elite defense to go along with his all-around offensive game. Note that Anthony Davis is a marginal three point shooter, hitting .340 for the season and .309 for his career. A defensive oriented 6-9 F than can hit closer to .400 on the three pointers scores 1.2 points per possession. Beats a post up Davis by 120 to 97 in a 100 possession game. This is why analytics and three point shooting rule the league now. It is an absolute must to put three point shooters at all the positions.

Ayton's defense is suspect. His post up game is unproven. His three point shooting (17% at NBA range) is questionable. This is a big chance to take on a 1-and-done player. Too big for me. I'll taken the proven Euroleague star every day of the week. A .333 three point shooting Doncic scores 1 point per possession which will still beat Anthony Davis post up skills. Doncic will be closer to a .400 shooter at three point range. Ayton will be nowhere near Anthony Davis level of offense or defense.

Disagree. What does Ayton not have in his repertoire that you need to see. He shot 34% from three. He shot 74% from the line. He used power game, finesse game, face up and post up, spins, up and unders, alley oops. Don't forget he is 19. He will shoot over PJ Tucker like Durant shoots over PJ Tucker.

[8on]

Didn't PJ Tucker shut down Anthony Davis in the post.

2018 season:
Davis 0.97 points per posessions from Post Ups
Davis 1.01 points per posessions from 3s

This is so important. Over a 100 possession game a three point shooting Davis beats a postup Davis by 4 points (101 to 97). Consider that Davis brings elite defense to go along with his all-around offensive game. Note that Anthony Davis is a marginal three point shooter, hitting .340 for the season and .309 for his career. A defensive oriented 6-9 F than can hit closer to .400 on the three pointers scores 1.2 points per possession. Beats a post up Davis by 120 to 97 in a 100 possession game. This is why analytics and three point shooting rule the league now. It is an absolute must to put three point shooters at all the positions.

Ayton's defense is suspect. His post up game is unproven. His three point shooting (17% at NBA range) is questionable. This is a big chance to take on a 1-and-done player. Too big for me. I'll taken the proven Euroleague star every day of the week. A .333 three point shooting Doncic scores 1 point per possession which will still beat Anthony Davis post up skills. Doncic will be closer to a .400 shooter at three point range. Ayton will be nowhere near Anthony Davis level of offense or defense.

Ayton’s game is different from Davis’. He’s right when he says he’s an inside out big man. He is. Davis is not that.