The Draft Thread: Ayton Vs Doncic 1

[8on]

Shaq? He’d still be unstoppable.

He still needs to outscore all those drives and 3s. Which I doubt.

He is also not switchable on D and wouldnt be able to cover multiple guys in a single possession like Draymond or Embiid nor is he fast enough to prevent getting outnumbered on transition defense.

Shaq in his prime was only getting 57-58 TS%. Curry is getting 67 TS% in his prime,atleast 60 TS% in his last 7 of 9 seasons. Hell.. IT in his last season with the Celts was getting 60TS% on 29ppg.

If you look at the numbers, today’s perimeter players are getting better scoring numbers compared to the bigs of previous era.

Now Shaq would have to dunk on Al Horford instead of Dale Davis.

I was once a pro-okafor so i went thru want you’re going through.

I had a confirmation bias also.

I ask you, what happens then when Ayton goes up against Gobert, Whiteside or Embiid?

Guys like Horford or Baynes maybe short, but they are strong enough to prevent you to go inside the paint or get you to kill some more secs until they throw a double and you will have a very limited time to throw a crosscourt pass to an open shooter with multiple 7’ wingspan defenders trying to deflect that pass.

If you pull it off, then good. But you have to ask yourself.. was it a better offense than running a PnR, motion, 8 secs or less basketball or a dribble drive?

A 3 pt shot is no good in the hands of Boban Marjanovic. It may be the more efficient shot, but not for Boban.

The shot depends on the person taking it. They all have different comfort levels in different areas of the floor. Ayton is as comfortable as anyone I’ve seen as a freshman scorer.

Whiteside isn’t that good of a defender.

I don’t know what happens when Ayton goes up against Gobert and Embiid. Ayton scored more points than any freshman center since 1992. I’d give him as much of a shot as anyone. If he can put everything together, he could lead the league in scoring. I firmly believe that.

[bigfoot]

I expect him to shoot around 37% like Paul George.

That's about what I expect. That's about what Harden shoots too..actually a little better. I think some of these guys would shoot better if they shot more catch and shoots, but shooting so many off the dribble brings it down. That's why it's hard to compare shooters....someone who only shoots wide open catch and shoots is likely to have a higher % than a really high volume primary ball handler who takes them off the dribble, who actually may be just as good or better at catch and shoots.

That's why I want a lot of ball movement and open looks....also a reason I think Booker and Doncic would play well off of each other. Doncic will likely need to improve his shot selection too.

Yep, I completely agree. I just think some are discounting Ayton's shooting. Automatic from 18 feet, high release, and silky smooth mechanics. Not unreasonable to expect improvement at the next level.

I don't discount his face up shooting. It's not automatic but it is 50% which is really good. It will probably be lower in the NBA. But most important at 50% it is only 1 point per possession versus 1.1 for a 37% three point shooter. Can he make the three?? Don't know. His free throw percent says maybe at the .340 level. Again if Ayton can improve from a 17% NBA range in college to a 34% Doncic should be able to go from 33% to 37% or higher.

[76ciology]

Shaq? He’d still be unstoppable.

He still needs to outscore all those drives and 3s. Which I doubt.

He is also not switchable on D and wouldnt be able to cover multiple guys in a single possession like Draymond or Embiid nor is he fast enough to prevent getting outnumbered on transition defense.

Shaq in his prime was only getting 57-58 TS%. Curry is getting 67 TS% in his prime,atleast 60 TS% in his last 7 of 9 seasons. Hell.. IT in his last season with the Celts was getting 60TS% on 29ppg.

If you look at the numbers, today’s perimeter players are getting better scoring numbers compared to the bigs of previous era.

I agree, but there's a balance. The roster being trotted out nightly don't have defenses designed to defend the bigs of prior eras. You're talking about this as if Ayton will be constantly having to switch onto Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Well to the same extent (since they'll have to switch our shooters too, right?) won't Curry and Thompson constantly be having to roll with Deandre Ayton to the rim?

Well, guards or wings can block the path that would lead to a charge or lead to a post play then the cycle again happens.

You’d have a better chance of pulling it off with a star caliber guard. Then you again ask yourself, why not just draft Doncic and get yourself Capela or Noel? Then put yourself in all this mental exercise with Payton at PG and Ayton at C then figuring out how to play D with Booker and Ayton.

[76ciology]

Now Shaq would have to dunk on Al Horford instead of Dale Davis.

I was once a pro-okafor so i went thru want you’re going through.

I had a confirmation bias also.

I ask you, what happens then when Ayton goes up against Gobert, Whiteside or Embiid?

Guys like Horford or Baynes maybe short, but they are strong enough to prevent you to go inside the paint or get you to kill some more secs until they throw a double and you will have a very limited time to throw a crosscourt pass to an open shooter with multiple 7’ wingspan defenders trying to deflect that pass.

If you pull it off, then good. But you have to ask yourself.. was it a better offense than running a PnR, motion, 8 secs or less basketball or a dribble drive?

A 3 pt shot is no good in the hands of Boban Marjanovic. It may be the more efficient shot, but not for Boban.

The shot depends on the person taking it. They all have different comfort levels in different areas of the floor. Ayton is as comfortable as anyone I’ve seen as a freshman scorer.

Whiteside isn’t that good of a defender.

I don’t know what happens when Ayton goes up against Gobert and Embiid. Ayton scored more points than any freshman center since 1992. I’d give him as much of a shot as anyone. If he can put everything together, he could lead the league in scoring. I firmly believe that.

It’s like this..

You have to cross the ocean and you have to choose between a small wooden boat and the newest most expensive futuristic ferrari.

You’ve seen the ferrari run at breakthrough speed. You tell yourself.. small wooden boat is boring. It may cross across the ocean but it’s slow.

Might as well try to cross the ocean with the ferrari. It has run at breakthrough speed before i’ll take my chances with it crossing the ocean

Law of nature favors the boat. But excitement favors the ferrari.

Then again, if that ferrari is able to cross that ocean..... my friend you deserve a nobel prize for racing. Lol

[BurningHeart]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

Shooting can be improved. Motors can't.

[bigfoot]

Ayton scored more points than any freshman center since 1992.

Just to be clear here are the NCCA big men who have scored 18+ per game as freshman. Not the most impressive list you will ever see. To me the elite centers have played much better defense than Ayton.

http://cbbref.com/tiny/Dcc6c

[76ciology]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

Shooting can be improved. Motors can't.

And Doncic’s got a good base rate % and fundamental to improve on.

That I feel that there’s a better probability that Doncic turns into a really great shooter than for Ayton to be good defensive player

[Bob8]

His shooting is actually mediocre for a wing. It will get better but unlikely to become elite. His instincts and size are his bread and butter.

mmmm ok in what way is it mediocre?

His midrange jumper and percentages across the board aren't on par with Tatum from last year. The majority of his scoring occurs around the basket even though the highlights don't show this.

I don’t know what exactly mean around the basket, but here is his shooting card.

http://overbasket.com/rsplayers.php?tab=9&year=2017&pcode=005929&cmp=EL

[Bob8]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

I know Dragic very well and I know how untalented shooter he’s. He was shooting 25% in Euroleague, being 3 years older than Doncic. http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=THB#!careerstats

And he’s 37% shooter in Nba. And he had 2 seasons over 40%. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01.html

If Dragic could do it, Doncic can too.

Or Joe Ingles, Euroleague 35%, 24 years old Ingles was shooting 23%. http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=003062#!careerstats

Nba 42%, this year 44%. Shooting is repetition, % normally going up.

Doncic’s shots are almost all unassisted and he’s main target of every team and he’s barely 19 years old. I don’t buy fairytales that D. in regular season on low bottom teams is always that good. In which period of the season had JJ the best numbers? In Europe every game is like playoffs, nobody is tanking and teams are being prepared for best players of other teams. Why do you think Young’s 3 points shooting sunk in second part of the season? Because D. On him was incredible. He will never face that kind of D. in regular season playing for botton end Nba team. The same goes for Doncic.

[oddity]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

I think his NBA role will allow coming off the ball and taking more spot up shots, where he fares much more like an elite shooter. Luka, especially next to Booker, has the advantage of more attention demanding teamates, making his shots easier.

[NavLDO]

I haven't read a single(...ok, maybe I peeked at 3 or 4) post in this thread, but for me, and this is a complete 180 degrees from where I was 6-8 months ago, and that is, I'm slightly leaning Doncic, here.

Feel free to 'bash' my very basic and non-in-depth analysis here, but if we are going for a Big? I want a 'shutdown' Big (kind of like a 'shutdown corner' in the NFL...they don't exist...but you get my point)...I want a D-E-F-E-N-D-E-R in the paint, and Ayton just is not that guy...yet. A guy like Brandon McCoy from UNLV shouldn't have a 'career game' against Ayton (33 pts/10 Rebs,or something to that effect). I know, one game, but there were others...

Luka just seems like a special talent, to me, and a guy who will likely be 'special'; I personally do not get the same impression from Ayton.

Plus, look at KAT...or AD...or pick an Offensively-minded Center; they don't move the needle. Someone like a Gobert, moves the 'Needle', if you have the offensive fire power to support, and we have that in spades in Booker/Warren. We need Defense at the 5, not Offense, IMO.

Just my poor-man's analysis. I'd rather grab Doncic; he's a talent that can be special and move the needle IMO. If not, and I'm sure to get flamed for this, but trade down. Get what you can, which I'm assuming would be quite a haul, to move down a few spots, and grab Bamba. NOT because his combine, but because of who he his, and who he projects to be...a Gobert/Noel-like Talent.

[JMac1]

Here’s the thing. You know how to stop 3pt shooting? Play with effort. Rotate and don’t be lazy. That’s what Houston did last night, old school physical. What happens to Doncic if you put a high quality defender in front of him and he can herk and jerk all he wants but not create separation? Add to that his defense is probably par for the course...

Doncic and Ayton have the same weaknesses but I’ve seen Ayton just dominate. Show me a game where Doncic just dominated. You know where they had to play D on him like Trae Young.

I want to see more cross over blow bys.

[JMac1]

Why can't people just admit that Doncic isn't that good of a shooter right now lol? I'm as big of a Doncic fan as anyone, but 33% on his career is not a good 3PT% for someone who will be a primary shot creator, and 31% when he was the primary shot creator is equally bad. You can say he took tough shots late in the clock and at the end of quarters, but he's going to be doing the in the NBA too. Is the expectation really for his 3PT% to jump almost 10% when the line moves back and the defense becomes more athletic? He definitely has potential to improve, but it's not like it's going to get easier.

Shooting can be improved. Motors can't.

And Doncic’s got a good base rate % and fundamental to improve on.

That I feel that there’s a better probability that Doncic turns into a really great shooter than for Ayton to be good defensive player

Problem with that statement is Ayton has elite defensive tools and his issues could have been motivational or schematic..... Just asking him to focus and be a little more aggressive can change that, with time in the film room.

Put it like this. How many people can stop Ayton on offense and how many could stop Doncic? And how many players <cough Mike James> could Doncic stop and how many can Ayton stop on defense?

There your answer.

[Bob8]

Shooting can be improved. Motors can't.

And Doncic’s got a good base rate % and fundamental to improve on.

That I feel that there’s a better probability that Doncic turns into a really great shooter than for Ayton to be good defensive player

Problem with that statement is Ayton has elite defensive tools and his issues could have been motivational or schematic..... Just asking him to focus and be a little more aggressive can change that, with time in the film room.

Put it like this. How many people can stop Ayton on offense and how many could stop Doncic? And how many players <cough Mike James> could Doncic stop and how many can Ayton stop on defense?

There your answer.

That's the problem when people talk without knowing anything. Doncic never guarded James. And this narrative about James being great in Euroleague is totally false anyway. Panathinaikos played playoffs with home court advantage last year and this year. It was 0:3 last year and 1:3 this year. They have won only 1 game with home court advantage, and playing on Oaka is really hell for opponents, in 2 years. James with his street basketball just hurt his team. Empty stats man. Panathinaikos with James is the biggest loser in last 2 years in Eurolegue.

[JMac1]

An uncontested dunk is the best shot. It will be contested by PJ or another stout defender with long arms that is faster all day long. People ignoring the history since 2005. D'Antoni changed the system with seven seconds or less and the GSW/Rockets have perfected it. The game has changed since Shaq, Duncan, Ewing, Yao, and Olajuwan played. Dominate bigs are going extinct like the dinosaurs ... too big and slow to survive.

This is the chart we all need to be paying attention to with this discussion. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_career.html

IMO, the SSOL Suns could have developed into one of the all-time great teams, had Amare not gotten injured. That's because Amare's percentages - at that volume - was crazy high. That 04-05 team started the transition to where the league is today.

A big part of the change in styles is due to rule changes, sure, but the biggest part has been skill development, pure and simple. Take the three, focus on the three, get great at it. NBA players are simply much, much better shooters than they were in eras past.

The league that SSOL transitioned away from, however, is important to remember. The reason the league had transitioned from the run-n-gun eighties to such a post-up oriented game in the nineties was because of the extraordinary talent of the bigs of that generation - Olajuwon, Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Robinson, and finally, Shaq. When all the rest of those guys were gone, we were left with Shaq, and a league desperate to stop him. Otherwise, the game that was sort of dead. A generation of "superstars" like Carter, McGrady, Iverson, Francis and Marbury never really learned to be efficient and productive offensive players. Iso ball up top with bigs defending down low. Teams were designed to contend with a type of player that no longer existed - except for Shaq.

I know post ups in general are not good, but a Shaq post up was unstoppable, and still would be today... Your biggest big is Zaza Pachulia? Nene? Uh, pleeeease. It wasn't until Shaq and Kobe split (and Shaq precipitously declined) that the modern offense began to take shape here in Phoenix and now in Golden State and Houston.

THE THING YOU'RE MISSING is that the post up is not how the big is most often used in the modern offense - and that would be true even if the offense were designed around him. Of any team's fans, ours should know this best, because we all watched Amare. The ideal modern big rolls to the rim, catches everything, finishes everything, over and against anyone. A great one will turn a 12 footer into a layup with a dribble, hit his free throws and step out for the open shot when offered. He'll gobble up boards and keep defenses honest with his tremendous gravity. Everything we've seen from Ayton suggests he'll be able to do all those things.

By now we've all seen teams stacked with shooters better than any known to the NBA of the past. Now let's see what happens when you put one of those great wrecking balls of yesteryear in the middle of it. SHAZAM!!!

Ayton's home in the US is Arizona. He wants to be here. We have the #1 pick. The 50/50 curse has been lifted. The modern NBA offense was birthed here. Now, like a Phoenix, the modern offense must here be reborn.

The reason why it failed was Amare, while more than capable offensively, could not play defense. He was a liability. He was not the defensive anchor we needed. Nor could Amare hit the three point shot. Amare next to a better defender, rebounder, and three point specialist in Channing Frye almost got us to the finals. Everyone alway wondered why Frye had the biggest plus/minus on the floor when it looked like he did so little. Offensive gravity and better than average defense next to Amare.

The one worry for Ayton, and everyone points it out, is his defensive motor. The second worry is can he develop three point range. Doncic on the other hand has a career.601 true shooting percentage which would put him in the top 25. Therefore by your argument, Doncic would fit right it. Just get a Channing Frye-like guy (dime a dozen in the NBA) to put in with Booker and Doncic and zing-go-the-strings. Hell Kevin Love would do. Even Chriss could surprise us next year as he seems to have the instincts for help defense if he can just stay in shape.

It failed because of Tim Duncan...inside scorer! We had to double him because we were too small and couldn’t guard him in the post and that opened Bowen in the corner. How can we as Suns’ fans forget that.

We beat Dallas in 05 playoffs and Amare DOMINATED!

Off the top of my head 37 and 12!

[JMac1]

It’s funny. KAT and Embiid and Davis dominate more in the pros than they did in college, but Ayton should be worse and he dominated more in college?!?

Crazy!

Draft Ayton and tighten up the D. Top 5 player.

[King4Day]

I haven't read a single(...ok, maybe I peeked at 3 or 4) post in this thread, but for me, and this is a complete 180 degrees from where I was 6-8 months ago, and that is, I'm slightly leaning Doncic, here.

Feel free to 'bash' my very basic and non-in-depth analysis here, but if we are going for a Big? I want a 'shutdown' Big (kind of like a 'shutdown corner' in the NFL...they don't exist...but you get my point)...I want a D-E-F-E-N-D-E-R in the paint, and Ayton just is not that guy...yet. A guy like Brandon McCoy from UNLV shouldn't have a 'career game' against Ayton (33 pts/10 Rebs,or something to that effect). I know, one game, but there were others...

Luka just seems like a special talent, to me, and a guy who will likely be 'special'; I personally do not get the same impression from Ayton.

Plus, look at KAT...or AD...or pick an Offensively-minded Center; they don't move the needle. Someone like a Gobert, moves the 'Needle', if you have the offensive fire power to support, and we have that in spades in Booker/Warren. We need Defense at the 5, not Offense, IMO.

Just my poor-man's analysis. I'd rather grab Doncic; he's a talent that can be special and move the needle IMO. If not, and I'm sure to get flamed for this, but trade down. Get what you can, which I'm assuming would be quite a haul, to move down a few spots, and grab Bamba. NOT because his combine, but because of who he his, and who he projects to be...a Gobert/Noel-like Talent.

I think AD is in a world to himself. He is arguably the best player in the league. If not, he's top 3-5 for sure. He can play defense which is what separates him.

[JMac1]

I haven't read a single(...ok, maybe I peeked at 3 or 4) post in this thread, but for me, and this is a complete 180 degrees from where I was 6-8 months ago, and that is, I'm slightly leaning Doncic, here.

Feel free to 'bash' my very basic and non-in-depth analysis here, but if we are going for a Big? I want a 'shutdown' Big (kind of like a 'shutdown corner' in the NFL...they don't exist...but you get my point)...I want a D-E-F-E-N-D-E-R in the paint, and Ayton just is not that guy...yet. A guy like Brandon McCoy from UNLV shouldn't have a 'career game' against Ayton (33 pts/10 Rebs,or something to that effect). I know, one game, but there were others...

Luka just seems like a special talent, to me, and a guy who will likely be 'special'; I personally do not get the same impression from Ayton.

Plus, look at KAT...or AD...or pick an Offensively-minded Center; they don't move the needle. Someone like a Gobert, moves the 'Needle', if you have the offensive fire power to support, and we have that in spades in Booker/Warren. We need Defense at the 5, not Offense, IMO.

Just my poor-man's analysis. I'd rather grab Doncic; he's a talent that can be special and move the needle IMO. If not, and I'm sure to get flamed for this, but trade down. Get what you can, which I'm assuming would be quite a haul, to move down a few spots, and grab Bamba. NOT because his combine, but because of who he his, and who he projects to be...a Gobert/Noel-like Talent.

I think AD is in a world to himself. He is arguably the best player in the league. If not, he's top 3-5 for sure. He can play defense which is what separates him.

Agreed. But Ayton with his size agility and fluidity can be better on offense. He can add the power game that AD doesn’t have. AD has handles, that’s what separates him on O. I saw Ayton dribble behind the back and traffic and finish. I just see him improving on those types of flashes and being such an offensive dynamo.

It would be nice to have Ayton make AD play with his weight instead of his length and agility. Think Shaq V Mutombo. Strength neutralizes that.

[JMac1]

[Archx]

I don't understand the logic of people coming from the US. In europe first what coaches teach us are the basics of playing team basketball then it comes down to tactics, conditioning etc....
And when i watch, read and listen to what americans are saying it's all about the damn athleticism. How many times you had an amazing athlete in your club or you even drafted one and later the whole experiment failed because he had no clue what to do on the basketball court. I know from experience when americans came to our club, jumping and dunking like they had springs in their legs but completley failed when it came down to team basketball.

But the thing is, it is hard to teach BBIQ if you don't have the basics. If all you know is how to shoot and dunk the ball, well that can only bring you so far... Athleticism, conditioning, better shooting % those are the things that CAN absolutley be improved with more and more training.
And i also hear and read all the time "he is 6'8 and 230" slow, no speed, no quickness etc. I mean go and watch the video where he blows by Oladipo like he was not even there and he was only 17yo. A 19yo with that kind of body will certainly develop in 2years, 3 years or 4 years into much better shape than he is now. Look at Lebron, similar height and weight. When Lebron came into the league he was athletic thats true but he was also really skinny. And now his physique looks like a bulldog plus he is super fast with amazing vertical leap.

People also love comparing Doncic to Harden... similar style of play. Thats kinda great comparison but then they quickly point out his low 3pt % and no defense. First of all Harden, who is most likely to be MVP this year, we all know plays incredibly bad defense and also his shooting % for playoffs are 41% 2pts and 33% 3pts. And why is that? Because obviously opposition prepares for him and try to lock him down. Same happened with Doncic in EU playoffs. But he still managed to have enough BRAIN POWER to will his team to win and get MVP for final4 and regular season..

So my point is everything that is said about shooting %, lack of athleticism, not enough muscles etc... those are the easiest things to fix specially with NBA trainers. But lack of BBIQ and drive to win games is something you can not teach.

I hope Ayton gets drafted 1st and Doncic falls all the way back to 10th place so in 2 or 3 years all those teams can kick themselves in the buts for passing on him. Even though i think Ayton is an amazing athlete and a good bball player, he has a long way to go in terms of learning how to carry a pro team. On the other hand Doncic needs to hit the gym which he also said many time he will after the season.