Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron.

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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#61 » by lakers2020 » Thu May 24, 2018 12:35 pm

commentatorer wrote:
ClipsFanSince98 wrote:Better than Simmons, better than Towns, better than Blake Griffin in terms of a rookie season. According to Kevin Pelton's WARP he is actually is being projected to be the most dominant rookie in the last 12 years at least (tracked since 06). Just put up 21, 7.5, 7, 1.5 steals PER 36 on elite efficiency, just turned 19 years old, led his team to the Euroleague title.

That's not as good as Simmons.
Simmons averaged 15.8ppg 8.2apg 8.1rpg 1.7spg 0.9bpg .545fg .560ft
And in the playoffs 16.3ppg 9.4rpg 7.7apg 1.7spg 0.8bpg .488fg .707ft
BTW LeBron averaged 20.9ppg 5.9apg 5.5rpg 1.6spg 0.7bpg .417fg .754ft .290trey


Simmons was also elite defensively his first year while Lebron was probably well below average as a rookie.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#62 » by Kool_Name_Right » Thu May 24, 2018 12:47 pm

I feel like the hype is getting to loud for this kid. Maybe a 16 5 and 5 season and no matter how well he's going to play I feel like he's gonna let down some of these posters

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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#63 » by Stadium5 » Thu May 24, 2018 1:14 pm

Doncic wont be a better rookie than Tatum
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#64 » by Spanish_Laker » Thu May 24, 2018 1:19 pm

I agree with that, people who disrespect him haven't clearly watched him at all.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#65 » by John Murdoch » Thu May 24, 2018 1:28 pm

He wont have a better rookie year than Simmons i can guarantee you
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#66 » by Lauri_Legend » Thu May 24, 2018 1:30 pm

I feel like the projection of his career is a wide spectrum. One hand, he'll surpass an epic rookie season from Simmons and he'll be on par with Lebron...on the other hand he'll be a slow euro at the wing position and is highly overrated. I'm interested in watching Luka more than anythign next season.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#67 » by JPF » Thu May 24, 2018 1:40 pm

I am also a bit tired of threads such as these. Hype isn't making Luka any better of a player than he is. And me conviencing someone that Luka is the best thing since Wilt Chamberlain doesn't have much impact on how things are going to work out either.

As a big Dončič fan since he was 13 years old... No, Dončič will not be the best rookie since Lebron.

European and NBA game are different. Luka won't come out to NBA and dominate, creating an edge with individual output. It will take time to adapt to living in the US, differences in basketball philosophies, getting to know his teamates, realising their strenghts, creating some chemistry, he will have to cope with losing, for the very first time in his career. Some people don't realise that Real Madrid was a really good fit for him.

There are situations where Luka would thrive in.
76ers with all of their outside shooting would benefit a lot from Dončič and vice-versa. Boston, GS, Spurs with their ball movement, where his ability for those strong passes from one side of the court to another would provide an edge over competition, or teams with great stretch PF or C. I would really love to see him play with Markannen. Than, there are teams with reliable screeners, Dončič excells at running the PnR, if I had to point out one thing he is really good at, that would be it. Combine him with a PG that is also great at running PnR and you can imagine all the options that come out of that.

I don't expect Dončič to create with his individual characteristics on his own as much as some other great players did, the way Lebron did, as an example.
One of the most common observations by scouts that have watched Luka, was that he is reading the game on a level of some 10 year vet and not an euroleague rookie. Dončič can be great feeding of some of his team's abilities, as the ones described above. There are some teams I could easily imagine him thrive in, while there are some others where I believe he won't have the neccesary tools to make as much of a difference.
Put him in a team that sets soft screens, his no.1 weapon becomes mediocre... put him in a team without ball circulation and expect him to create through ISO... he would create something out of it, but would be far from a superstar doing that. There are many scenarios such as these two.

Dončič will develop into that complementary, 2nd guy. Imo he has the tools to be one of the best of those. But definately won't be the best rookie since Lebron. Lebron is able to significantly pull any team on his own, Dončič won't do that. Get him into some teams with some prerequisites and his returns will likely be exponential.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#68 » by NZB2323 » Thu May 24, 2018 2:43 pm

I agree Luka will be the best rookie in this draft class. He's been playing professional basketball against adults since he was 16. However, I think some players with more athleticism, like Ayton, have more potential.

And Lebron wasn't the best rookie we've had. It's not surprising, considering he came straight from high school. Here are some better rookies than him that were drafted after him:

Lebron as a rookie: 18.3 PER, 1.9 BPM
Ben Simmons as a rookie: 20 PER, 4.6 BPM
Joel Embiid as a rookie: 24.1 PER, 3.1 BPM
KAT as a rookie: 22.5 PER, 2.8 BPM
Kyrie Irving as a rookie: 21.4 PER, 3.3 BPM
Anthony Davis as a rookie: 21.7 PER, 2.3 BPM
Blake Giffin as a rookie: 21.9 PER, 3.2 BPM
Chris Paul as a rookie: 22.1 PER, 6.1 BPM


EDIT: It looks like Chris Paul is the best rookie we've had since 2003. He also increased his team's wins by 20 from the previous season.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#69 » by BlazersBroncos » Thu May 24, 2018 3:08 pm

I think he will have a great rookie year but this thread is getting ahead of itself. My projection for him is a Brandon Roy level player. A low tier #1, with a chance of not adjusting well and developing leaving him a Gordon Hayward level guy.

I do think the athleticism concerns are overblown. He isnt a elite quick twitch guy, but he is an average athlete and his instincts, motor and IQ will help compensate defensively. I see him as a 17 / 6/ 6 type as a rookie. Thats great for a kid his age.

You cant explain it but he has that 'it' factor. He just was born with basketball instincts. In an era where PNR is so incredibly important, he already runs it like a pro. I mean its just a treat to watch him play the PNR. He can become an above a above average starter just based off that trait alone.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#70 » by MaxRider » Thu May 24, 2018 3:10 pm

didn't they say that about Andrew Wiggins?
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#71 » by OkcSinceSGA » Thu May 24, 2018 3:12 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:I think he will have a great rookie year but this thread is getting ahead of itself. My projection for him is a Brandon Roy level player. A low tier #1, with a chance of not adjusting well and developing leaving him a Gordon Hayward level guy.

I do think the athleticism concerns are overblown. He isnt a elite quick twitch guy, but he is an average athlete and his instincts, motor and IQ will help compensate defensively. I see him as a 17 / 6/ 6 type as a rookie. Thats great for a kid his age.

You cant explain it but he has that 'it' factor. He just was born with basketball instincts. In an era where PNR is so incredibly important, he already runs it like a pro. I mean its just a treat to watch him play the PNR. He can become an above a above average starter just based off that trait alone.


I like this prediction. I agree.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#72 » by OkcSinceSGA » Thu May 24, 2018 3:13 pm

NZB2323 wrote:I agree Luka will be the best rookie in this draft class. He's been playing professional basketball against adults since he was 16. However, I think some players with more athleticism, like Ayton, have more potential.

And Lebron wasn't the best rookie we've had. It's not surprising, considering he came straight from high school. Here are some better rookies than him that were drafted after him:

Lebron as a rookie: 18.3 PER, 1.9 BPM
Ben Simmons as a rookie: 20 PER, 4.6 BPM
Joel Embiid as a rookie: 24.1 PER, 3.1 BPM
KAT as a rookie: 22.5 PER, 2.8 BPM
Kyrie Irving as a rookie: 21.4 PER, 3.3 BPM
Anthony Davis as a rookie: 21.7 PER, 2.3 BPM
Blake Giffin as a rookie: 21.9 PER, 3.2 BPM
Chris Paul as a rookie: 22.1 PER, 6.1 BPM
Deron Williams as a rookie:

EDIT: It looks like Chris Paul is the best rookie we've had since 2003. He also increased his team's wins by 20 from the previous season.


It will be hard to top CP3's impact for sure. He could top Ben Simmons, we shall see.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#73 » by KP6 » Thu May 24, 2018 3:21 pm

Please stay in another year... Knicks will have a much better chance next year of getting him
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#74 » by Mirotic12 » Thu May 24, 2018 4:30 pm

UcanUwill wrote:I am Doncic guy, but you guys are setting yourselves for a big disappointment.

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Based on your posts in the Doncic threads, you are almost always downplaying what any player does in Europe. If a player won 5 straight MVPs in EuroLeague I bet you would find a way to say his upside was NBA 8th man.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#75 » by LeMasta » Thu May 24, 2018 4:35 pm

I don't have much doubt that Doncic will have a great rookie season, however my gut tells me his ceiling is one of the lower ones out of the top 10.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#76 » by NeoDragonKnight » Thu May 24, 2018 4:41 pm

doesn't matter how they start...its how they progress to their potential.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#77 » by Heej » Thu May 24, 2018 4:43 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:LeBron was not that good of a rookie, arguably the third best of his team, definitely worse than Simmons.

Edit: of his class

If you look back 2003-04 season was the absolute lowest point in the NBA when it came to scoring because of unrelaxed hand checking rules combined with clogged lanes due to illegal defense being taken out and the slowest paced year ever to cap it off. Rookie LeBron in the league now probably puts up 23/6/6 on 55 TS%
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#78 » by UcanUwill » Thu May 24, 2018 4:44 pm

Mirotic12 wrote:
UcanUwill wrote:I am Doncic guy, but you guys are setting yourselves for a big disappointment.

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Based on your posts in the Doncic threads, you are almost always downplaying what any player does in Europe. If a player won 5 straight MVPs in EuroLeague I bet you would find a way to say his upside was NBA 8th man.


I am a hard pessimist, I cheer for most out of Euroleague players, but I always fear for the worst. If I didn;t have emotional connection to DOncic, I wouldnt care this thread exist, but I do, and as his fan, I fear this hype will turn a lot of fans against him, especially if he doesn't perform all that great right from the start, which is very possible. I always prefer people have modest expectations so they wouldn't get mad. High expectations always leaves to disappointment which leaves to hate.

And speaking about Euroleague, it still has long long way to go, just from the basic eye test you can tell how much better NBA is at basketball. Fan experience is much worse with NBA I feel, with timeouts being 3 times longer and stoppages all the time, I enjoy Euroleague games way more, but thats because I don't mind way less talented basketball.

And about 5 MVPs in a row, well, it all depends. I could see myself in theory thinking that 5 time MVP is an 8th. man in NBA, yes for sure. But at the same time I bet I could find Euroleague role players who I would say would do pretty well in the league too. Players dont traslate very linearlyfrom such a massive talent jump.
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#79 » by GameBredAPBT » Thu May 24, 2018 4:46 pm

He needs to go to SAC. That young core is bananas
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Re: Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron. 

Post#80 » by NZB2323 » Thu May 24, 2018 4:58 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:I think he will have a great rookie year but this thread is getting ahead of itself. My projection for him is a Brandon Roy level player. A low tier #1, with a chance of not adjusting well and developing leaving him a Gordon Hayward level guy.

I do think the athleticism concerns are overblown. He isnt a elite quick twitch guy, but he is an average athlete and his instincts, motor and IQ will help compensate defensively. I see him as a 17 / 6/ 6 type as a rookie. Thats great for a kid his age.

You cant explain it but he has that 'it' factor. He just was born with basketball instincts. In an era where PNR is so incredibly important, he already runs it like a pro. I mean its just a treat to watch him play the PNR. He can become an above a above average starter just based off that trait alone.


I think the best comparison for Doncic is Nikola Jokic, who had a 21.5 PER and 4.8 BPM as a rookie. Just like with the Joker, we'll have all these threads where people disagree on how good he actually is.
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