Luka Doncic will be the best rookie since Lebron.

[IgorK]

Darko didn't win Euroleague MVP, wasn't the best player on the best team in Europe (or on his team for that matter).
In fact, they're nothing alike as prospects, Darko's upside was precieved (obviously for no good reason) as a more athletic Dirk but he was clearly a project. Luka is one of the most complete, pro-ready player we've seen in a while and the only doubts about him is his ceiling, not floor.
There is no chance of Doncic busting, at the very least he'll be a starter for over a decade.

So much confidence, you must've flown over to see him up close and assess personally on a deep level.

Or maybe I just live in Europe so I don't need to fly anywhere...

And nowhere in my post was I talking about anything personal, just basketball - you should try learning about it, it's a pretty fun game

clearly no bias from a Euro resident.

[Cavsfansince84]

uh...there have been many rookies who were better than LBJ since 2003....there are probably 3 this year alone.

I mean, people do know that LBJ wasn't the best rookie in his class, right? Or probably even second best.

LBJ got ROY because of the hype he had as a prospect, he wasn't close to an all time great rookie because he was too young.

Yeah...this is pretty inaccurate. He won ROY because he was the best. Sure, there was a debate between him and Melo his rookie year, but it was clear that Lebron was hands down the better overall player from Day 1.

No it isn't, he was not better than Anthony or Wade his rookie year. Being the best prospect isn't the same as the best rookie.

What is James argument for being the best rookie in 2004? He was insanely inefficient and couldn't play any defense. He put up an incredibly inefficient 21 points on a lotto team. Sounds like a hype job to me - same reason Wiggins won his ROY, except James had even better competition.

Melo.....21.0/6.1/2.8/17.6per/51%ts/1.6vorp
Wade....16.2/4.0/4.5/17.6per/53%ts/1.8vorp
LeBron...20.9/5.5/5.9/18.3per/49%ts/3.1vorp

All in all they had similar rookie seasons but LeBron's was prob the best.

[UcanUwill]

So much confidence, you must've flown over to see him up close and assess personally on a deep level.

Or maybe I just live in Europe so I don't need to fly anywhere...

And nowhere in my post was I talking about anything personal, just basketball - you should try learning about it, it's a pretty fun game

clearly no bias from a Euro resident.

You digging a hole, Darko comparison was clearly non sense. Its like comparing RJ Barrett to average Canadian high school prospect.

[Lauri_Legend]

I don't think Luka will be better than Simmons, but he won't be a bust either. Euros come into the league with extremely high IQ. Over the past 5 years, you can find great euro players in the league now. They're just better developed. It's not the Darko days anymore. It's the Jokic, Lauri, Kristap, Saric days now

[duppyy]

lol let him play an NBA game first before making such claims.

[NBAFan93]

Lol - wasn’t Lonzo supposed to be the best rookie since LeBron last year?

[kodo]

According to Kevin Pelton's WARP he is actually is being projected to be the most dominant rookie in the last 12 years at least (tracked since 06)

This stat has proven to be highly unreliable when gauging NBA success, for draft prospects.

Kevin Pelton: Fultz's consensus WARP projection (which includes where a player ranks on your big board as well as his statistical projection) is ahead of where No. 1 pick Ben Simmons finished last season.

Jaylen Brown
Meanwhile, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton projects he’ll produce negative 0.5 Wins Above Replacement Player, or WARP, which ranks 101st among all prospects.

Conversely, Mitchell is throwing out Gary Harris vibes and he is looking like a core piece in Denver. However, he ranks just 25th in WARP.... is it best to just avoid both players to avoid another player like Stanley Johnson

From the Embiid draft (2014)...

For a long-term outlook, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA...

This year, the top prospect in my rankings isn't any of the guys you've heard about atop Big Boards. Rather, it's a sophomore: Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart.

Specifically regarding Euros:

2. Dragan Bender
Maccabi Tel Aviv

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.

Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).

I'm very pro-Doncic, but not because of WARP.

[NY 567]

He's a 6'8 guard who is unbelievably skilled, and while not a top tier athlete his lack of athleticism is way overstated. He's also the most decorated draftee of all time, not another guy to enter the draft has had his accomplishments and pedigree. It's amazing to me how overlooked he is, he should be an easy number 1 projection, the fact that some have him going 4 or 5 boggles my mind. I have no idea why this is the case, it's bizarre.

[Xherdan 23]

So much confidence, you must've flown over to see him up close and assess personally on a deep level.

Or maybe I just live in Europe so I don't need to fly anywhere...

And nowhere in my post was I talking about anything personal, just basketball - you should try learning about it, it's a pretty fun game

clearly no bias from a Euro resident.

How is it biased to say that two players 15 years apart who play completely different positions, played in two different tiers of leagues where one was the star of his team on the brightest stage and the other was a 10 MPG player have nothing to do with each other?

They literally have nothing in common other than a "cic" in their last name.
I'm biased? You basically compared 2 players because their names sound similar to you. GTFO

[ILikeLollies]

Peltons ratings also had Lonzo Ball as being the transcendent player of last year's class and the year before had Jaylen Brown the 28th ranked player of the 2016 draft.

[IgorK]

Or maybe I just live in Europe so I don't need to fly anywhere...

And nowhere in my post was I talking about anything personal, just basketball - you should try learning about it, it's a pretty fun game

clearly no bias from a Euro resident.

You digging a hole, Darko comparison was clearly non sense. Its like comparing RJ Barrett to average Canadian high school prospect.

It wasn't a direct comparison, it was to point out that plenty of hyper euro players have been busts. Hold your horses.

[Riko]

2. Dragan Bender
Maccabi Tel Aviv

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.

Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).

From what I see about Bender (not really much to be fair) he was right, he has incredible tools for 7-1. I'm not really sure what are his problems and if it possible to solve but his potential is (and was) incredible.

[walk with me]

Better than Simmons, better than Towns, better than Blake Griffin in terms of a rookie season. According to Kevin Pelton's WARP he is actually is being projected to be the most dominant rookie in the last 12 years at least (tracked since 06). Just put up 21, 7.5, 7, 1.5 steals PER 36 on elite efficiency, just turned 19 years old, led his team to the Euroleague title.

I really really hope he doesnt stay in Europe this year. We will all be robbed of an amazing talent. His game and size is ideal for the NBA right now to have a bit of a perfect storm scenario that Dirk had mid career where the league became a pace+space/PnR league.

In the NBA he should be an even better fit. If the Suns don't draft him at #1 they are making a huge mistake. This thread will be revisited in the season I'm sure.

He won’t be the top 5 best rookies between this and next season.

0% chance he’s better than Tatum
0% chance he’s better than Mitchell
0% chance he’s better than Simmons

He won’t be top 2 rookies next season.

[UcanUwill]

clearly no bias from a Euro resident.

You digging a hole, Darko comparison was clearly non sense. Its like comparing RJ Barrett to average Canadian high school prospect.

It wasn't a direct comparison, it was to point out that plenty of hyper euro players have been busts. Hold your horses.

Hypes are different. Bender was hyped altho he was a DNP-CD 12th. man on a weak Euroleague team. Doncic is hyped, but he is Euroleague MVP on a Championship team. Busts are being hyped all the time, no matter they from Europe or college, so your point is completely weightless. We all know busts exist...

[UcanUwill]

2. Dragan Bender
Maccabi Tel Aviv

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.

Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).

From what I see about Bender (not really much to be fair) he was right, he has incredible tools for 7-1. I'm not really sure what are his problems and if it possible to solve but his potential is (and was) incredible.

Hes just soft, always has been. He came out at the best possible time for him. To begin with, he was riding on Porzingis panned out hype and secondly, everyone was obsessed (still are) with bigs who can switch and play versatile D. Bender can turn into OK defender, as he is very quick and 7 feet tall, but his softness will make sure he is nothing more than a spot up shooter on offense.

[Curmudgeon]

Best rookie since LeBron? So Doncic will be better than Anthony Davis? Maybe the Suns should offer #1 to the Pelicans for Davis, and see what happens.

[UcanUwill]

Best rookie since LeBron? So Doncic will be better than Anthony Davis? Maybe the Suns should offer #1 to the Pelicans for Davis, and see what happens.

Anthony Davis wasn't as good his rookie year as he is now. Come on.

[LakersDynasty14]

He won’t be better than Lonzo Ball was this year. I’d say the way Lonzo dominated the league by filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis was historical, and I don’t see any rookie coming into the league anytime soon who can have the kind of impact right away that Ball had this year.


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[mixerball]

Hmm.. here are some quotes..

"I haven't seen him, no one sees him, but we hear things. I've heard very good things. Nothing bad at all. ... From what I know about those leagues, he is playing the very best in Europe against grown men who are 25, 30 and 35 years old.

1
..about a different "icic" - Darko Milicic.

im not gonna talk about all the other world apart differences betwen these two players but this is probably the main difference.

everything luka does is well documented and there on display for anyone who wants to see and know.

[BladeKor]

Better than Simmons, better than Towns, better than Blake Griffin in terms of a rookie season. According to Kevin Pelton's WARP he is actually is being projected to be the most dominant rookie in the last 12 years at least (tracked since 06). Just put up 21, 7.5, 7, 1.5 steals PER 36 on elite efficiency, just turned 19 years old, led his team to the Euroleague title.

I really really hope he doesnt stay in Europe this year. We will all be robbed of an amazing talent. His game and size is ideal for the NBA right now to have a bit of a perfect storm scenario that Dirk had mid career where the league became a pace+space/PnR league.

In the NBA he should be an even better fit. If the Suns don't draft him at #1 they are making a huge mistake. This thread will be revisited in the season I'm sure.

Won't happen and will disappear from nba talk in a few seasons when he's average.