'17-'18 POY discussion

[dhsilv2]

Wow absolutely shocked TT wasn't suspended. It'll be good for game 2, but he flat out punched green in the face.

No he didn’t. The ball hit green.

and then his fist...



I suppose you could claim the first isn't closed there...

[Doctor MJ]

So does anyone have Curry with a potential top 5 slot? I think it's pretty clear he's the 2nd best player in the NBA but he missed a huge amount of games. I'm leaning towards Giannis at 4, and was leaning Durant/Oladipo at 5 but I'm really struggling with it now. Thoughts? I knew there were a lot but injuries really took a toll this year.

Most likely Curry makes my top 5 and I could see him as high as 3. Still very much in the air though for the simple fact that I tend not to focus on injuries if they didn't in the end destroy the season. A lot of people object to this approach and understandably so. I don't really intend to justify it here, but I will say I rank Curry ahead of Harden as a player but Harden's still going to be ahead of him in my POY this year, so injuries and variance in play aren't nothing to me either.

That's the harder thing for me to factor in. Just how much of a knock are games missed worth when you know one player is better than another. Trying to find that balance is extremely difficult.

Good questions to be pondering. I'd suggest that if you have more general questions along these lines make threads on the PC board.

One piece of advice to come to mind:

In the databall age, it's easy to feel you simply have to apply a particular weight to a particular injury and thus have a specific threshold to justify how much is too much (penalty of X for each game missed, etc). It's fine if that's how you want to approach it, but I've moved further away from this approach in recent years. I think it's wise to be skeptical of any particular holistic assessment - is he just justifying his own bias? - but the reality is that a player's impact has an n-dimensional shape to it and the weight of each dimension varies with context which can't realistically be quantified.

What this means for me is that in both POY and GOAT Career conversations, after I start bottom-up getting a sense of the shape of what a player did/was, I then shift and think top-down to try to really consider what things matter most in assessing him relative to rivals. I find that when I do this I get a better sense of closure that I'm talking about something meaningful.

[Mystical Apples]

Wow absolutely shocked TT wasn't suspended. It'll be good for game 2, but he flat out punched green in the face.

No he didn’t. The ball hit green.

and then his fist...

Spoiler:

I suppose you could claim the first isn't closed there...

Relatively speaking not sure why this play isn't the bigger deal.

https://streamable.com/pus9o

[dhsilv2]

No he didn’t. The ball hit green.

and then his fist...

Spoiler:

I suppose you could claim the first isn't closed there...

Relatively speaking not sure why this play isn't the bigger deal.

https://streamable.com/pus9o

That was an open hand on lebron's face. I don't see how you can compare the two. Lets added TT was already ejected, he shouldn't have still been on the court.

Do you have a comparable example of when a player was given a technical let alone suspended for a game for a similar open hand palm to the face act?

[Mystical Apples]

and then his fist...

Spoiler:

I suppose you could claim the first isn't closed there...

Relatively speaking not sure why this play isn't the bigger deal.

https://streamable.com/pus9o

That was an open hand on lebron's face. I don't see how you can compare the two. Lets added TT was already ejected, he shouldn't have still been on the court.

Do you have a comparable example of when a player was given a technical let alone suspended for a game for a similar open hand palm to the face act?

I mean, where exactly do you think Draymond was going with that left arm extending forward?

It was a non-basketball play above the shoulders against a vulnerable player, somewhere between a Flagrant 1 and a Flagrant 2. It's a joke that TT's actions merited immediate rejection + 25k fine but to my knowledge the refs didn't even review Draymond's more dangerous act (I believe he was given a technical for arguing, then yelled something that looked an awful lot like F*** P***)

- Airborne
- Vulnerable
- Non-basketball play
- Arguably unnatural act. Lebron had the ball so he couldn't even prevent it.

Flagrant 1: push (lol jeez play on Lebron was way worse)
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-1-non-basketball-push-to-opponents-chest/

Flagrant 2: Unnatural Act (hit to the groin). In this case the eye.
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/unnatural-act-flagrant-foul-penalty-2-unnatural-kick-to-opponents-groin/

Flagrant 2: Hard airborne contact to the player's head
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-2-hard-airborne-contact-to-opponents-head/

[The High Cyde]

Draymond is just a dirty player, point blank.

[dhsilv2]

Relatively speaking not sure why this play isn't the bigger deal.

https://streamable.com/pus9o

That was an open hand on lebron's face. I don't see how you can compare the two. Lets added TT was already ejected, he shouldn't have still been on the court.

Do you have a comparable example of when a player was given a technical let alone suspended for a game for a similar open hand palm to the face act?

I mean, where exactly do you think Draymond was going with that left arm extending forward?

It was a non-basketball play above the shoulders against a vulnerable player, somewhere between a Flagrant 1 and a Flagrant 2. It's a joke that TT's actions merited immediate rejection + 25k fine but to my knowledge the refs didn't even review Draymond's more dangerous act (I believe he was given a technical for arguing, then yelled something that looked an awful lot like F*** P***)

- Airborne
- Vulnerable
- Non-basketball play
- Arguably unnatural act. Lebron had the ball so he couldn't even prevent it.

Flagrant 1: push (lol jeez play on Lebron was way worse)
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-1-non-basketball-push-to-opponents-chest/

Flagrant 2: Unnatural Act (hit to the groin). In this case the eye.
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/unnatural-act-flagrant-foul-penalty-2-unnatural-kick-to-opponents-groin/

Flagrant 2: Hard airborne contact to the player's head
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-2-hard-airborne-contact-to-opponents-head/

I don't get what you're talking about here at all. You're comparing a basketball player who was allowed to be on the court to a guy who'd been thrown off the court.

We had a guy make contact with a closed hand in the face of another player (not during the play of basketball). That has been an instant suspension no matter what under any circumstances.

The dray play is nothing remotely like it. I can't even discuss it unless you have examples of a similar play CONSISTENTLY being used to suspend a player for the following game. Or in simpler terms Dray was allowed on the court. TT had been told to get the hell off the court and instead he goes, confronts a player, throws the ball at him, follows through and hits the guy in his face with a closed fist. If you think these are comparable, you're being crazy man.

[INKtastic]

That was an open hand on lebron's face. I don't see how you can compare the two. Lets added TT was already ejected, he shouldn't have still been on the court.

Do you have a comparable example of when a player was given a technical let alone suspended for a game for a similar open hand palm to the face act?

I mean, where exactly do you think Draymond was going with that left arm extending forward?

It was a non-basketball play above the shoulders against a vulnerable player, somewhere between a Flagrant 1 and a Flagrant 2. It's a joke that TT's actions merited immediate rejection + 25k fine but to my knowledge the refs didn't even review Draymond's more dangerous act (I believe he was given a technical for arguing, then yelled something that looked an awful lot like F*** P***)

- Airborne
- Vulnerable
- Non-basketball play
- Arguably unnatural act. Lebron had the ball so he couldn't even prevent it.

Flagrant 1: push (lol jeez play on Lebron was way worse)
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-1-non-basketball-push-to-opponents-chest/

Flagrant 2: Unnatural Act (hit to the groin). In this case the eye.
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/unnatural-act-flagrant-foul-penalty-2-unnatural-kick-to-opponents-groin/

Flagrant 2: Hard airborne contact to the player's head
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-2-hard-airborne-contact-to-opponents-head/

I don't get what you're talking about here at all. You're comparing a basketball player who was allowed to be on the court to a guy who'd been thrown off the court.

We had a guy make contact with a closed hand in the face of another player (not during the play of basketball). That has been an instant suspension no matter what under any circumstances.

The dray play is nothing remotely like it. I can't even discuss it unless you have examples of a similar play CONSISTENTLY being used to suspend a player for the following game. Or in simpler terms Dray was allowed on the court. TT had been told to get the hell off the court and instead he goes, confronts a player, throws the ball at him, follows through and hits the guy in his face with a closed fist. If you think these are comparable, you're being crazy man.

No he didn't, he went to ask the ref why he was ejected and was interrupted by classless Draymond taunting him, which should have been a technical on Draymond.

[laika]

Relatively speaking not sure why this play isn't the bigger deal.

https://streamable.com/pus9o

That was an open hand on lebron's face. I don't see how you can compare the two. Lets added TT was already ejected, he shouldn't have still been on the court.

Do you have a comparable example of when a player was given a technical let alone suspended for a game for a similar open hand palm to the face act?

I mean, where exactly do you think Draymond was going with that left arm extending forward?

It was a non-basketball play above the shoulders against a vulnerable player, somewhere between a Flagrant 1 and a Flagrant 2. It's a joke that TT's actions merited immediate rejection + 25k fine but to my knowledge the refs didn't even review Draymond's more dangerous act (I believe he was given a technical for arguing, then yelled something that looked an awful lot like F*** P***)

- Airborne
- Vulnerable
- Non-basketball play
- Arguably unnatural act. Lebron had the ball so he couldn't even prevent it.

Flagrant 1: push (lol jeez play on Lebron was way worse)
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-1-non-basketball-push-to-opponents-chest/

Flagrant 2: Unnatural Act (hit to the groin). In this case the eye.
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/unnatural-act-flagrant-foul-penalty-2-unnatural-kick-to-opponents-groin/

Flagrant 2: Hard airborne contact to the player's head
http://videorulebook.nba.com/archive/flagrant-foul-penalty-2-hard-airborne-contact-to-opponents-head/

This is a classic example of the bias on this forum.

Draymond went straight up. Lebron initiated the contact. When someone is attacking you in the face with their elbow it's a natural reaction to put an arm forward to try to slow them down. Do you seriously expect Green to allow Lebron to take his head off there without even trying to defend himself?

-Since Lebron initiated the contact whether they were airborne is irrelevant.
-Draymond looked a lot more vulnerable on that play. Green was the one being barreled into.
-Jumping straight up to contest a drive is unquestionably a basketball play.
-You want to talk about an unnatural act? How about Lebron elbowing Green in the face?
-"Hard airborne contact to the player's head". You mean like how Lebron initiated the play and elbowed Green in the face?

But fine. Let's agree to disagree even though we are theoretically looking at the same play. I would settle for Lebron and Green being suspended for game 2. But only Green being suspended for that play would be an obscene joke.

I know I can't possibly ever win here because I am outnumbered by too much. Human psychology forbids it. But it is obvious that the deafening silence regarding the indefensible lack of a Thompson suspension is a strong data point in my favor. This forum actually has become the Lebron homer club.

[INKtastic]

LeBron's percentage of team playoff VORP:

2015: 46%
2016: 42%
2017: 43%
2018: 92%

[eminence]

A) TT shouldn't have been tossed for the first foul.

B) The move to Dray's face after being tossed should be a suspension.

[PaulieWal]

This forum actually has become the Lebron homer club.

It is unfortunate you think so but parroting this multiple times isn't productive. Please don't post this type of stuff anymore, it's pretty much baiting.

Edit: As always if you see a post that you think crosses the line, report it and let the mods do their job.

[laika]

LeBron's percentage of team playoff VORP:

2015: 46%
2016: 42%
2017: 43%
2018: 92%

Cleveland's Net points per game in the playoffs is 0.6. So their team VORP is close to zero. But even if this weren't a boundary case VORP is still worthless. Westbrook showed that last year when he had the best season in NBA history according to VORP.

Percent of an extremely questionable stat that is facing a zero boundary issue=beyond worthless.

[bondom34]

An extremely questionable stat is incorrect use of on/off data as a summary of points.

VORP isn't perfect, but it's got it's points.

[INKtastic]

LeBron's percentage of team playoff VORP:

2015: 46%
2016: 42%
2017: 43%
2018: 92%

Cleveland's Net points per game in the playoffs is 0.6. So their team VORP is close to zero. But even if this weren't a boundary case VORP is still worthless. Westbrook showed that last year when he had the best season in NBA history according to VORP.

Percent of an extremely questionable stat that is facing a zero boundary issue=beyond worthless.

1. you're talking about two different and unrelated stats
2. Thus far this playoffs LeBron has the second highest VORP in the history of the NBA playoffs.

[laika]

An extremely questionable stat is incorrect use of on/off data as a summary of points.

VORP isn't perfect, but it's got it's points.

On/Off data is extremely useful since it tells you things that box score accumulators never can.

VORP is totally worthless. It distorts box score values even more than PER and Win shares do. As the inferior member of an already questionable group of stats, VORP adds zero value.

[INKtastic]

An extremely questionable stat is incorrect use of on/off data as a summary of points.

VORP isn't perfect, but it's got it's points.

On/Off data is extremely useful since it tells you things that box score accumulators never can.

VORP is totally worthless. It distorts box score values even more than PER and Win shares do. As the inferior member of an already questionable group of stats, VORP adds zero value.

Completely disagree, at least for raw on/off numbers because so many factors outside of a players performance impact his on/off numbers.

Two players, one played starts and only played with the starters and rests when the bench players play, second player on a different team also starts, plays the same minute, but it's his job to carry the bench when the other starters are out, so he plays less time with the best players on his team, more time with the worst players on his team. All things being equal, the second player is going to have worse On/Off data than the first.

[laika]

An extremely questionable stat is incorrect use of on/off data as a summary of points.

VORP isn't perfect, but it's got it's points.

On/Off data is extremely useful since it tells you things that box score accumulators never can.

VORP is totally worthless. It distorts box score values even more than PER and Win shares do. As the inferior member of an already questionable group of stats, VORP adds zero value.

Completely disagree, at least for raw on/off numbers because so many factors outside of a players performance impact his on/off numbers.

Two players, one played starts and only played with the starters and rests when the bench players play, second player on a different team also starts, plays the same minute, but it's his job to carry the bench when the other starters are out, so he plays less time with the best players on his team, more time with the worst players on his team. All things being equal, the second player is going to have worse On/Off data than the first.

RAPM adjusts for all that. Even with raw data it's not that hard to make common sense adjustments for minutes played, starters and rotations.

[bondom34]

An extremely questionable stat is incorrect use of on/off data as a summary of points.

VORP isn't perfect, but it's got it's points.

On/Off data is extremely useful since it tells you things that box score accumulators never can.

VORP is totally worthless. It distorts box score values even more than PER and Win shares do. As the inferior member of an already questionable group of stats, VORP adds zero value.

Sure, but it doesn't tell you anything in a vacuum And when used incorrectly, its worthless

[INKtastic]

On/Off data is extremely useful since it tells you things that box score accumulators never can.

VORP is totally worthless. It distorts box score values even more than PER and Win shares do. As the inferior member of an already questionable group of stats, VORP adds zero value.

Completely disagree, at least for raw on/off numbers because so many factors outside of a players performance impact his on/off numbers.

Two players, one played starts and only played with the starters and rests when the bench players play, second player on a different team also starts, plays the same minute, but it's his job to carry the bench when the other starters are out, so he plays less time with the best players on his team, more time with the worst players on his team. All things being equal, the second player is going to have worse On/Off data than the first.

RAPM adjusts for all that. Even with raw data it's not that hard to make common sense adjustments for minutes played, starters and rotations.

For the first, you mean it attempts to. It can't do it perfectly without a large amount of date of all players on the court playing at a consistent, injury free, level. Which absolutely does not happen. Take an example from this season - Isaiah Thomas. he played at MVP candidate level last year, this year he was a shell of himself. Isn't RAPM that uses multi season data going to penalize the other players on the court with him for his subpar play when he actually is pulling down their production?

For the second, how are you going to do that without watching most games from all players involved to know what adjustments to make for rotations.