2018 NBA Draft Talk

Ranma · Post #621 » by **Ranma** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 9:55 am

After posing the hypothetical scenario of an LA team striking out on premier free agents such as LeBron James, Paul George and the like during a recent podcast, Bill Simmons asked Zach Lowe if it were plausible for that team to panic and call OKC with the intention of overpaying in trade for Russell Westbrook's contract resulting in Sam Presti fleecing them.

I suppose this would also figure to have George leaving the Thunder likely for the other LA team, but Lowe was quick to answer in the affirmative. However, he was also quick to say that it would much more likely apply to the Lakers than the Clippers since everything in the last 18-24 months suggests that the Clips are a well-managed team that is sneakily well set up for the next 5 years to avoid such things such as blowing things up just to acquire Westbrook.

This, in turn, convinced Simmons to agree with Lowe and call the Clippers the swing team in this upcoming draft with our 2 lottery picks since it allows the team to move up the draft board. Simmons suggests the Mavericks, with the 5th overall pick, as a possibility if the Clips are willing to take on one of their bad contracts, but that goes against what Lowe had just said. However, Simmons does say that history has shown that the Clippers would be better off taking 2 swings given how there always seems to be a Donovan Mitchell available in that range.
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By the way, Simmons is totally sold on Luka Doncic as a special player stating that he should be the #1 overall pick and that it would be ridiculous to look back in 5 years to see that he wasn't. Rumors of him dropping to possibly 4th overall has Simmons considering such a scenario as catastrophic. He cites his previous feelings on Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Anthony Davis during their respective draft years as having a similar sentiment of "sometimes you know with these guys".
[time stamp - 1:23:48]

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Ranma · Post #622 » by **Ranma** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 10:07 am

In this iteration of the Ringer's mock draft, the Clippers just miss out on Collin Sexton but choose Troy Brown, Jr. and Kevin Knox over other prospects like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Robert Williams, Lonnie Walker IV and Zhaire Smith. I must say that I would be quite disappointed if that was our actual draft haul. Brown seems like an intriguing player for consideration later in the draft but his lack of a perimeter shot and the discouraging signs of him not developing one later on makes him a reach in the lottery.

I'm still unconvinced by Knox as a prospect and referring to his versatility as a theoretical aptly describes my feelings on him. There's a certain amount of upside attached to youth, especially for those with size and skill but you have to see more signs of encouragement with regards to motor, consistency, determination and basketball IQ. Defaulting to the opinion of taking for granted that a skilled big-man will eventually figure things out is a dangerous and reckless game to play.

To be honest, Knox and Williams pose a better debate of which prospect will eventually be the better player given their respective size and talent. Knox is appealing because of the promise of versatility his skills represent while Williams' promise comes from the upside his athleticism presents. Neither are really safe prospects in my opinion, but Knox is considered the safer proposition between the two while Williams has the higher ceiling.

Both players certainly have the potential to make people look bad for not drafting them, but they also show signs of why drafting either one could be fool's gold. DeAndre Jordan went from projected top-5 pick due to his size and athleticism to second-round selection because of his mental fragility and struggles to produce at the college level. Hassan Whiteside similarly fell towards the top of the second round because of his attitude problem. Both certainly outplayed their respective draft positions but even now neither are considered worthy franchise players deserving of a big-money, long-term contract. For every one of these examples, there are the likes of Stromile Swift, Chris Wilcox, Brandan Wright, Tyrus Thomas, et al to cite as cautionary tales.

Kevin O' Connor, TheRinger.com (5/21/18)

The Ringer's 2018 NBA Draft Guide

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esqtvd · Post #623 » by **esqtvd** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 10:33 am

Ranma wrote:especially since the team is devoid of young talent capable of being rotational players due to the incompetence of the Doc regime.
[b][approximate time stamp - 1:08:00]

Well, actually Woj said no such thing. Listen for yourself. What he said is Doc's drafts weren't good, which nobody disputes. Doc's highest pick was a #25. He created no miracles out of crap picks, true fact.

Ramna is embellishing a bit. Actually, embellishing a lot. :-(

FTR, I'm glad Doc is no longer GM or PoBO, whatever. He would have converted CJ and Ty's 2-way contracts and we'd likely have made the playoffs and lost our 1st round pick this year. That's what a coach/GM is supposed to do. Win. Now.*

Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed. We still finished with only the 3rd winning season in Los Angeles Clippers history without Chris Paul** and still kept the pick.

Works for me.

________________

*When we were in win-now mode with CP and BG's option years coming up--by far the greatest era in Clippers history--win now was the way to go. Anyone who says different wasn't here for all the suffering--2 winning seasons in 24 years.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAC/

**True story.

1991-92 45-37
2005-06 47-35
2017-18 42-20

Ranma · Post #624 » by **Ranma** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 10:59 am

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Ranma · Post #625 » by **Ranma** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 11:01 am

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Forte IV · Post #626 » by **Forte IV** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 7:20 pm

Anyone else think a guy like Wendall Carter could actually fall to us? I just find it hard to believe that in today's NBA, where teams are winning due to wing players, that all these top teams select big man as their potential franchise player.

connseanery · Post #627 » by **connseanery** » Sun Jun 3, 2018 10:15 pm

I think the probability is relatively small. Seemingly the Bulls, Cavs, Knicks, 76ers, and Hornets all could use guards and wings more than a big but at least from public perception Carter appears to be ranked in the top 8 Best Player Available. The Athletic says he has workouts scheduled with teams 4 - 9.

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https://hoopshype.com/2018/05/19/2018-nba-pre-draft-workouts-whos-going-where/

Highest ranked guy Hoopshype knows about is Donte Divincenzo.

Ranma · Post #628 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 8:42 am

Forte IV wrote:Anyone else think a guy like Wendall Carter could actually fall to us? I just find it hard to believe that in today's NBA, where teams are winning due to wing players, that all these top teams select big man as their potential franchise player.

I don't think it's a realistic possibility at all, otherwise, I'd be all over pushing to draft him. I think Carter actually has a decent chance to supplant Mo Bamba in the top 5. I consider him a lock for a top-10 selection but he's currently projected to be the 7th overall pick in current mock drafts by DraftExpress, NBAdraft.net and the Ringer.

I like the comparisons to Al Horford as a reliable, versatile big man. He'd be groomed as the center of the future for the Clippers but also has the ability to contribute immediately with regular playing time as well.

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Ranma · Post #629 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 9:46 am

While discrepancies in measurements from year to year are not out of the ordinary, especially with those taken at different venues, the NBA's participation and consolidation of events seem to spur a movement towards normalizing a standard practice for reliable and consistent data.

With that in mind, I found it particularly interesting that Hamidou Diallo actually lost inches from his vertical-leaping measurements. He was still atop the rankings, but it does explain why he didn't separate himself from other participants when he's widely considered the best athlete in the draft. Maybe it has to do with him apparently growing physically in height as his increased standing-reach measurements seem to indicate.

Donte DiVincenzo must be really confident in the feedback he's been getting from his performance in pre-draft gatherings thus far as he's among the underclassmen who have officially declared to remain in the draft. Conversely, Jontay Porter's poor testing must have given him pause to stay in with this draft class as he's officially returning to school. Still, like DiVincenzo if he had also withdrawn, Porter is considered a likely lottery pick in next year's weaker draft class.

Question marks around Jontay's brother Michael Porter, Jr.'s health will heavily dictate where he actually gets drafted this year and continues to be something for us to look into as a possible Clippers' draftee. I can't say that I was sold on him even before his back injury, but I'm certainly intrigued with him as a "swing and miss" candidate late in the lottery as long as the health risks are mitigated. I actually like the comparison to a more athletic, quicker Keith Van Horn as I think it's quite apt, but the concern for me--as it always has been with MPJ--is his inefficient shooting and shot selection as a volume shooter a la Carmelo Anthony.

I'd be tempted to pull the trigger on taking Porter, Jr. with the 13th overall pick if he were available but it's far from a sure thing as I'm almost as likely to pass him over for more safer and reliable options even with the lower ceilings.

Michael Visenberg, NBAdraft.net (5/26/18)

Winners

Zhaire Smith, Texas Tech: 33” standing vert, 41.5” max vert, 11.02 lane agility, 3.05 ¾ court sprint, 3.15 reaction shuttle

Smith must not have gotten in front of the right eyes during his high school days to get the ranking he deserved, but his run and jump athleticism is completely evident once you watch him make plays above the rim and defend the perimeter. It was no surprise that he tested great in Chicago, as Smith gets off the floor so quickly and averaged over a steal and block per game. Smith played a crucial role in Texas Tech’s trip to the Elite 8, and while he measured slightly smaller than one might have thought, his explosiveness helps him play bigger.

Anfernee Simons, IMG Academy: 32” standing vert, 41.5” max vert, 11.30 lane agility, 3.10 ¾ court sprint, 3.16 reaction shuttle

Seen as one of the better shooters and scorers in the high school class of 2018, Simons still will have an air of mystery in that he never made it onto a college campus or played professionally. But, he showed that his time at IMG paid off big time in his combine testing numbers, with big jump and run scores. His lane agility may have some room for improvement, but he showed pop both from a stand still and running start in terms of his leap. He has shown craftiness in his game and measured with legitimate NBA numbers in athleticism testing.

Kevin Huerter, Maryland: 31” standing vert, 38” max vert, 10.89 lane agility, 3.09 ¾ court sprint, 2.96 reaction shuttle

Seen as one of the better shooting specialists in the draft, Huerter also has some bounce to him as well, finishing well around the hoop and in transition during his time in college. He has been adept at finishing off screens and shows some potential as a defender as well. It looks like Huerter had enough impact during the scrimmages, shooting drills and athleticism testing to keep his name in the draft. Showing potential as a coveted “3&D” wing might have moved him into the 1st round.

Lonnie Walker, Miami: 31.5” standing vert, 40” max vert, 10.87 lane agility, 3.06 ¾ court sprint, 2.87 reaction shuttle

Walker’s quick first step and ball handling are major parts of his upside, with his results showing why he is considered a likely mid-first round pick after a somewhat inconsistent freshman year. While many see the upside of Walker potentially being able to stretch the floor, defend the wing and possibly create off of the bounce, his athleticism testing gives the idea that this may be a possibility regarding his long term role. Coming off of knee surgery that he underwent last July, Walker certainly seems to be back athletically and his numbers were right in line with expectations.

Losers

Jontay Porter, Missouri: 25.5” standing vert, 31” max vert, 11.90 lane agility, 3.40 ¾ court sprint, 3.06 reaction shuttle

With center size and good instincts as a post defender, Porter also brings shooting and vision to the equation to give him promise in terms of what many teams want from the center position. While his reaction time was quite high here, everything else kind of stood out as to why teams might be a tad apprehensive in his translation to the NBA. Will he be able to defend in space? Will his lack of pop make it difficult for him to finish close to the basket? These were concerns surrounding Jontay as a prospect and were magnified by his combine results. As the youngest NCAA player in the draft, Porter still can work on his body and possibly improve in many of these areas. His lack of athleticism still might be a reason he could possibly slip to the late 1st round, even with rumors of his being a probable mid-first selection.

Notes

Hamidou Diallo still can fly, and displayed so once again in the athleticism testing. But, his standing vertical went from 34.5” in 2017 to 32.5” this year, while his max vertical went from 44.5” to 40.5”. He measured with an 8’7” standing reach, up an inch and a half from the year previous, though that does not account for all of his leaping losses. Athleticism is definitely not an issue for Diallo as much as shooting, ball handling and decision-making. Still, even with his numbers down from last year, he once again was a standout.

2018 NBA Draft Combine Athleticism Testing Analysis

Nick Prevenas, NBAdraft.net (5/30/18)

Fatal Flaws

Back surgery is no joke.

This isn't a standard-issue injury concern. Back problems at age 19 are terrifying.

Barely two minutes into his freshman season, Porter injured his hip and spent the rest of the game on the bench. On Nov. 22, Porter underwent surgery on a pair of spinal discs. He didn't see the floor again until March 8.

Prior to joining Missouri, Porter was either at or near the top of every 2017 recruiting list. College basketball fans never got to see what put him there. In Missouri's final two games — both losses — Porter made only 9 of 29 shot attempts. It's unfair to judge him based on a pair of games after back surgery, but it's all most fans have.

This is a loaded draft at the top. While Porter's talent is in a class of its own, this back injury — and the fear that it might be a recurring issue — could be enough to cause more cautious teams to seek a safer bet.

It also makes it impossible to judge his potential to create his own shot against NBA-level defenders. His handle is only average, and concerns about his ability to create his own shot against Al-Farouq Aminu-style defenders are real.

Will Porter require an elite playmaker to create opportunities for him? Will back surgery take away just enough of his quickness to limit his ability to separate from world-class defenders? We won't know for sure until we see him on the court against players he can't simply overwhelm with his talent, as he did so often in high school.

On a scale from 1 (Sam Bowie) to 10 (Joel Embiid), concern surrounding Porter's injury history (and his ability to overcome it) rests at a 7.

Situational Analysis: Michael Porter Jr.

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Ranma · Post #630 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 11:36 am

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Ranma · Post #631 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 11:39 am

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Ranma · Post #632 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 11:55 am

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Ranma · Post #633 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 12:23 pm

In this article from last year, West mentions how rebounding ability usually transfers over from college to the NBA, which is funny since that axiom was cited by Neil Olshey when we drafted Al-Farouq Aminu over Paul George (and Gordon Hayward). Even still, I believe that to be true, generally speaking. West goes on to mention his love of Kawhi Leonard and how he's a perfect example of how athletic ability and work ethic were good indicators that saw him overcome his flaws toward developing a complete game. He also credits the Spurs' organization for having a system in place that enables players to make such improvements.

Scottt Howard-Cooper, NBA.com (3/24/17)

NBA.com: Was there any part of you that enjoyed the challenge of picking late in the first and trying to beat the other teams? Vlade Divac at 26, Elden Campbell at 27 – that was back-to-back years. Did you take special pride in picks like that as opposed to getting a good player in the lottery?

JW: The lottery is really designed for teams that have poor records and not enough talent. You’re probably looking more on the future and potential and also someone who could potentially be a star. Particularly in Los Angeles, star power is very important and it was for the Lakers. During that period of time we had a lot of star power and we had some of the very best players in the league. All we were doing down there was trying to find players that would help these great players be more effective, take some of the burden off of them. In many ways they were almost like specialists. Some of them would rebound, some could defend, some of them really knew how to play the game….

I’m a harsh judge of players. I’m a harsh judge in terms of greatness. But if you can play both ends of the court I’m damn sure probably going to like you. That would be what we were looking for later in the draft. More importantly, those players who could go out there and play hard every night. I remember getting scouting reports. I read every scouting report. I had two people working for us at that time. Just two. Both of them former NBA players, Gene Tormohlen and Ronnie Lester.

The thing that was really important to me: How hard is this guy going to play? If he can’t play hard in college – then it was about a 28-, 30-game schedule, now it’s about a 36-game schedule – how in the world are they going to play hard in an 82-game schedule? That limits them immediately from a coaching perspective because a coach does not need to motivate someone to play hard. If you have to motivate someone to play hard, that’s not a fun thing to do.

NBA.com: What’s the most common mistake you see teams making in the draft?

JW: Drafting athletes because they have superior athletic ability and not seeing the skill level and, maybe, the desire. But I’ll say this. Everyone says the players are getting worse. I think the players are getting easier to deal with today. I really do, because some of them are so dedicated. These young kids are so dedicated.

It’s refreshing. They understand after a while it’s what they do on the court that’s going to allow them to have a career. I don’t call a career three years or four years. I call a career a 10-year career. I think we’re really getting some great kids. We’re getting kids that are really impressive in interviews. Really impressive. To me, it’s a tribute to some of the college coaches, some of the influences they’ve had on their lives. It’s very refreshing, let’s put it that way. Very refreshing.

NBA.com: The big finish is, how often when you said, “I can’t believe this guy was still on the board” did you actually mean it?

JW: I wouldn’t say it if I didn’t believe it.

Q&A: Hall of Famer and NBA Executive Jerry West

Quake Griffin · Post #634 » by **Quake Griffin** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 12:45 pm

Beautiful that Jerry has that mindset.

Just what I want in our front office.

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Forte IV · Post #635 » by **Forte IV** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 5:32 pm

Can't wait to hear about Zhaire Smith and Troy Brown today. If Lonnie Walker ends up working out for us it probably won't be until later this week or next week. He's currently in Chicago for a Wednesday workout. He worked out for Charlotte yesterday.

connseanery · Post #636 » by **connseanery** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 5:46 pm

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That's a nice group! Rare to see 3 1st rounders together.

Post #637 » by **TrueLAfan** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 7:02 pm

I think I said this earlier, but I’m pretty strongly against Kevin Knox. And it’s not that I don’t like Knox—I do. I think he’s likely to be a good NBA player, and has a good chance to develop into a very good NBA player. His size and length lets him play both forward positions, and if his three develops at the pro level, he’ll be a starter.

The thing is, we have Kevin Knox. His name is Tobias Harris. Every current attribute and potential strength I see in Knox—size, length, adequate ball handling, spread the court ability, scoring—Harris has at a high to very high level. Harris is a borderline all star. We don’t need to draft a player that potentially duplicates one of our starters. We need to draft someone who could be (much) better than our current starter. (We’ve also got another borderline all-star frontcourt guy that plays both forward positions and spreads the court…if he could just stop being hurt.) I just don’t see the need for Knox. If he was more of a SF—and I think Miles Bridges, for instance, would be better at SF than Knox—I’d like him better. I’d much rather have a PF/C and/or a SG/SF than another SF/PF.

connseanery · Post #638 » by **connseanery** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 9:31 pm

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Ranma · Post #639 » by **Ranma** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 9:46 pm

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Forte IV · Post #640 » by **Forte IV** » Mon Jun 4, 2018 10:48 pm

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What do you predict the Clippers will do on Draft Night? (vote for up to 2 options)