Draft day open thread and Offseason Rumors

[Andre Roberstan]

Moved to the draft day open thread.

Anything that would fall under the "rumors" heading re: trades, who teams are taking with their pick, etc. should be in this thread.

To start off with: Michael Scotto says the Raptors and Thunder are trying to trade into the first round.

https://theathletic.com/356874/2018/05/16/2018-nba-mock-draft-post-lottery-edition/

[HartfordWhalers]

Vegas odds are interesting:

Read on Twitter

[Spens1]

Vegas odds are interesting:

Read on Twitter

Why us and Miami, we haven't acquired anyone and neither has Miami. Both as they are now are fighting to ensure the playoffs, not win the title.

[Mamba4Goat]

Gotta love unreasonable Lakers love.

[winter_mute_13]

Why us and Miami, we haven't acquired anyone and neither has Miami. Both as they are now are fighting to ensure the playoffs, not win the title.

Function of being popular teams, I suspect. The more people bet on one team, the better its odds get (that is, the payoff becomes smaller). Bookies don't actually try to make money on outcomes, they make money on arbitrage.

The way to read Vegas odds is that it represents "wisdom of the crowd", or of the betting crowd at least. They will shift significantly after events like the draft and FA.

[winter_mute_13]

Not sure this is the right place but anyway...

This article posted by stitches in another thread suggests that many of the trades proposed here involving unguaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts are no longer legal.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2018/03/how-non-guaranteed-salaries-will-affect-trades-in-new-cba.html

Under the current CBA, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.

Complicating matters further is that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him when his non-guaranteed salary goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.

Here’s a practical example: Darren Collison‘s deal with the Pacers featured a fully guaranteed $10MM this season, with only $2MM of $10MM guaranteed for 2018/19. Once the regular season ends this year, Collison would only count for $2MM in outgoing salary for trade purposes.

This is news to me and seems to be under discussed in this forum. Hat tip to stitches.

[Texas Chuck]

Why us and Miami, we haven't acquired anyone and neither has Miami. Both as they are now are fighting to ensure the playoffs, not win the title.

Function of being popular teams, I suspect. The more people bet on one team, the better its odds get (that is, the payoff becomes smaller). Bookies don't actually try to make money on outcomes, they make money on arbitrage.

I actually think it has everything to do with Lebron being linked to Philly, LAL, Miami and Houston. No one thinks the current versions of the Lakers or Heat are serious contenders at the moment, but add Lebron......

[Celts17Pride]

Why us and Miami, we haven't acquired anyone and neither has Miami. Both as they are now are fighting to ensure the playoffs, not win the title.

Function of being popular teams, I suspect. The more people bet on one team, the better its odds get (that is, the payoff becomes smaller). Bookies don't actually try to make money on outcomes, they make money on arbitrage.

I actually think it has everything to do with Lebron being linked to Philly, LAL, Miami and Houston. No one thinks the current versions of the Lakers or Heat are serious contenders at the moment, but add Lebron......

Exactly

[loserX]

Why us and Miami, we haven't acquired anyone and neither has Miami. Both as they are now are fighting to ensure the playoffs, not win the title.

Function of being popular teams, I suspect. The more people bet on one team, the better its odds get (that is, the payoff becomes smaller). Bookies don't actually try to make money on outcomes, they make money on arbitrage.

I actually think it has everything to do with Lebron being linked to Philly, LAL, Miami and Houston. No one thinks the current versions of the Lakers or Heat are serious contenders at the moment, but add Lebron......

This is exactly what it is. Having LeBron is being baked into the odds for all those teams, and keeping him is baked into Cleveland's. So exactly one of those five teams may be a decent bet right now, and the other four will turn out to be horrible

[Multipe Sources]

Vegas odds are interesting:

Read on Twitter

I really have to wonder if the Lakers and Miami odds are so high mostly due to both franchises historically being great places for top free agents.

I just don't get how Miami could even dump enough salary to even sign a top free agent. They've got $100+ million locked up in Whiteside, Dragic, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Waiters and Olynyck. I'd even venture to say that outside of Dragic and James Johnson those other 4 contracts are either negative or neutral value and would be very difficult to dump for cap space.

[Multipe Sources]

Why us and Miami, we haven't acquired anyone and neither has Miami. Both as they are now are fighting to ensure the playoffs, not win the title.

Function of being popular teams, I suspect. The more people bet on one team, the better its odds get (that is, the payoff becomes smaller). Bookies don't actually try to make money on outcomes, they make money on arbitrage.

I actually think it has everything to do with Lebron being linked to Philly, LAL, Miami and Houston. No one thinks the current versions of the Lakers or Heat are serious contenders at the moment, but add Lebron......

But how and why would LeBron go back to Miami?
I don't think Miami even has the assets available to clear all of the contracts necessary to make space for LeBron... and if by some miracle they did, why would he choose to go to a gutted team that's probably going to be led by him and Dragic? Even with Spo and Riley, I wouldn't even list Miami as a top 7-10 destination for LeBron.

[Texas Chuck]

Function of being popular teams, I suspect. The more people bet on one team, the better its odds get (that is, the payoff becomes smaller). Bookies don't actually try to make money on outcomes, they make money on arbitrage.

I actually think it has everything to do with Lebron being linked to Philly, LAL, Miami and Houston. No one thinks the current versions of the Lakers or Heat are serious contenders at the moment, but add Lebron......

But how and why would LeBron go back to Miami?
I don't think Miami even has the assets available to clear all of the contracts necessary to make space for LeBron... and if by some miracle they did, why would he choose to go to a gutted team that's probably going to be led by him and Dragic? Even with Spo and Riley, I wouldn't even list Miami as a top 7-10 destination for LeBron.

Apparently Lebron has mentioned Miami. It doesn't have to make sense to you or me, it just has to make sense to Lebron. Regardless of how likely any of us may think him going back is, there have been links and Vegas is simply reacting to it.

[R-DAWG]

I actually think it has everything to do with Lebron being linked to Philly, LAL, Miami and Houston. No one thinks the current versions of the Lakers or Heat are serious contenders at the moment, but add Lebron......

But how and why would LeBron go back to Miami?
I don't think Miami even has the assets available to clear all of the contracts necessary to make space for LeBron... and if by some miracle they did, why would he choose to go to a gutted team that's probably going to be led by him and Dragic? Even with Spo and Riley, I wouldn't even list Miami as a top 7-10 destination for LeBron.

Apparently Lebron has mentioned Miami. It doesn't have to make sense to you or me, it just has to make sense to Lebron. Regardless of how likely any of us may think him going back is, there have been links and Vegas is simply reacting to it.

Lebron will find a way to go to where ever he wants to go, weather it be an opt in and trade, sign and trade, or the team clearing cap space.

On court, I actually like Lebron's fit with the Miami roster. Let's assume the trade sends Hassan Whiteside to a 3rd team for a draft pick and expiring contracts, which is filled to CLE along with Winslow, Miami's 2019 1st (eligible to be traded after the trade, and a salary filler, maybe a sign and trade bird right guy to make the math work.

Bam
J. Johnson
James
Richardson
Dragic

Bench features a stretch 4/5 in Olynyk, a knock down shooter in Ellington, and a quality backup combo guard in Tyler Johnson. I would assume they would look to move Waiters or T. Johnson, for more frontcourt depth (I would try to get in on H. Barnes or Otto Porter, even if it required a future first - Miami has shown they are willing to take risks with future picks). But back to the basketball fit, Lebron has a 2nd scorer/shot creator in Dragic, a 3 and D guy who can play 1-3 in Richardson, multiple mix and match options with J. Johnson, T. Johnson and I assume Wade. Also, can play a defensive front court with Bam or additional shooting with Olynyk. Combine that with strong coaching and it's a better situation then Cleveland. Find a way to make some additional move (the Barnes/Porter thing discussed above or potentially Dragic + for a younger, better player, maybe Kemba in a 3 team trade), and you might have 2-3 more shots at winning a title.

[HartfordWhalers]

Bumping this back to the front page.

[shrink]

This isn't a current rumor, but I thought it might be valuable to teams looking for a three-point shooting big man in free agency.

Many of us were surprised to see Jamal Crawford turn down his team option, and it may have a ripple effect. Without Crawford's money locked up, the Wolves have a chance to avoid the lux next year. This was unforeseen, but could be a big boon for MIN, not just from lux tax savings this year, but because they could delay starting the repeater clock. That could be huge, if the team has three max deals starting next season.

The odd man out may be Nemanja Bjelica. He's an RFA, but if he gets a sizable offer, it may now be unlikely that the Wolves would match. He was leading the NBA in three point shooting for a while, and has been under-utilized with his Euro skills, such as putting the ball on the floor, and his ability to make smart passes. The Wolves would certainly like to keep him, and desperately need his shooting, but they may lose him in free agency if someone makes a decent offer north of, say, $6 mil a year.

[Village Idiot]

Not a rumour but Neil Olshey says Portland is looking to use both its TPEs to improve the team. Clearly no rebuild in the cards. CJ will stay. So who wants to dump a 13 million and/or 3.5 million salary?

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/6/5/17432318/video-neil-olshey-interviewed-espn-nba-draft-on-the-clock

[Bologna Smasher]

This isn't a current rumor, but I thought it might be valuable to teams looking for a three-point shooting big man in free agency.

Many of us were surprised to see Jamal Crawford turn down his team option, and it may have a ripple effect. Without Crawford's money locked up, the Wolves have a chance to avoid the lux next year. This was unforeseen, but could be a big boon for MIN, not just from lux tax savings this year, but because they could delay starting the repeater clock. That could be huge, if the team has three max deals starting next season.

The odd man out may be Nemanja Bjelica. He's an RFA, but if he gets a sizable offer, it may now be unlikely that the Wolves would match. He was leading the NBA in three point shooting for a while, and has been under-utilized with his Euro skills, such as putting the ball on the floor, and his ability to make smart passes. The Wolves would certainly like to keep him, and desperately need his shooting, but they may lose him in free agency if someone makes a decent offer north of, say, $6 mil a year.

I really like Bjelica, thought he was one of the more underrated players this season. Would enjoy having him on the Kings, just wish he was a few years younger at this point, he would be a good fit at PF with the current core of young guys. I could still see Vlade & Peja going after him this off-season regardless.

[HartfordWhalers]

Ayton visiting Phx.

For reference, Simmons refused to visit Philly until they guaranteed him he would be picked 1st. (Fultz worked out for Boston without similar promise obviously).

Think we are going to see Ayton to Phoenix firm up as definitive in all mocks soon.

[Soulyss]

Not a rumour but Neil Olshey says Portland is looking to use both its TPEs to improve the team. Clearly no rebuild in the cards. CJ will stay. So who wants to dump a 13 million and/or 3.5 million salary?

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/6/5/17432318/video-neil-olshey-interviewed-espn-nba-draft-on-the-clock

I will believe it when I see it.

[HartfordWhalers]

Ayton visiting Phx.

For reference, Simmons refused to visit Philly until they guaranteed him he would be picked 1st. (Fultz worked out for Boston without similar promise obviously).

Think we are going to see Ayton to Phoenix firm up as definitive in all mocks soon.

And we are here already.