Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXV

[Dat2U]

A healthy Otto gets us past Toronto. Remember he had no business playing that series.

Going forward Boston is the obvious favorite but Philly is interesting. Embiid got exposed a bit guarding the perimeter in both the Miami & Boston series. What will that mean for his impact going forward? They honestly had the talent to win the East this year!

Not only was Embiid exposed, but Simmons was as well. Unless and until Simmons learns how to make anything but layups and dunks teams are going to effectively shutdown his offensive game...like the Celts did at critical times during the playoffs.

This is problematic. We could argue if Philly could have beaten us this year or not. But I don't think we would argue that the very young Sixers will take a bigger step forward than we will (as things stand) next year. And it isn't just Simmons and Embbid, I think Saric will take another huge step forward next year as well (as he did this year). And if one of Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu-Cabarrot steps up - well there you have it.

And then they - like the Celts - will beat us like a drum.

Boston will be really good. Nuff said, no need to go into too much detail.

As far as Philly. It comes down to development of Simmons, Embiid & Saric and it's not a completely rosey picture. Embiid isn't a development issue. It's basically comes down to whether he can defend on the perimeter or not. Of course he can make teams pay for going small but likely not at the rate teams will make him pay on the perimeter.

Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot outside of the paint. For him to ever maximize his wonderful gifts, it has to happen. Considering how remedial his jumper is, there's legitimate concern about whether it will ever happen.

Saric is the one who could likely take a significant step forward.... but his best position will eventually be the same position Embiid plays.

Fultz is a mental mess. I don't know if he ever gets it together or finds his jumper. Korkmaz & TLC are nothing more than fringe prospects at this point.

[dckingsfan]

Not only was Embiid exposed, but Simmons was as well. Unless and until Simmons learns how to make anything but layups and dunks teams are going to effectively shutdown his offensive game...like the Celts did at critical times during the playoffs.

This is problematic. We could argue if Philly could have beaten us this year or not. But I don't think we would argue that the very young Sixers will take a bigger step forward than we will (as things stand) next year. And it isn't just Simmons and Embbid, I think Saric will take another huge step forward next year as well (as he did this year). And if one of Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu-Cabarrot steps up - well there you have it.

And then they - like the Celts - will beat us like a drum.

Boston will be really good. Nuff said, no need to go into too much detail.

As far as Philly. It comes down to development of Simmons, Embiid & Saric and it's not a completely rosey picture. Embiid isn't a development issue. It's basically comes down to whether he can defend on the perimeter or not. Of course he can make teams pay for going small but likely not at the rate teams will make him pay on the perimeter.

Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot outside of the paint. For him to ever maximize his wonderful gifts, it has to happen. Considering how remedial his jumper is, there's legitimate concern about whether it will ever happen.

Saric is the one who could likely take a significant step forward.... but his best position will eventually be the same position Embiid plays.

Fultz is a mental mess. I don't know if he ever gets it together or finds his jumper. Korkmaz & TLC are nothing more than fringe prospects at this point.

Interesting take... before the draft (and with 30M in cap runway), they are running out (I am assuming Holmes is going to make much more money elsewhere. And I do believe that they will get breakouts from one of their youngsters. And I don't really agree that Embiid and Saric play the same position. I can see lineups where either one or both are on the court at the same time.

What is interesting is that they won 9 more games than us. It will be interesting to see how we make up that delta.

Code: Select all

Simmons     Fultz              Bayless
McConnell   Luwawu-Cabarrot   
Covington   Anderson           Korkmaz
Saric      
Embiid    


[Dark Faze]

Pass on giving up 3 assets for 1. That's too rich for my taste.

Sato lost minutes to a guy from China in the middle of a playoff run. Chances of him extending with us are quite low at this point.

So it's basically Oubre and a pick in a worse draft at an inferior draft position for Robert Williams.

I don't have enough confidence in Oubre to say no to that personally.

[nate33]

On the trade board, someone suggested a 3-way trade where Boston sends Kyrie to Phoenix, Phoenix sends picks and expirings to Cleveland, and Cleveland sends Lebron to Boston.

Imagine a Boston Celtics team plus Lebron and Hayward (and one more year of experience for Tatum and Brown). Their crunch time lineup would be Lebron surrounded by Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Hoford . Or maybe they play Smart in place of Hayward if they really want maximum defensive flexibility with the ability to switch everything.

[Dark Faze]

On the trade board, someone suggested a 3-way trade where Boston sends Kyrie to Phoenix, Phoenix sends picks and expirings to Cleveland, and Cleveland sends Lebron to Boston.

Imagine a Boston Celtics team plus Lebron and Hayward (and one more year of experience for Tatum and Brown). Their crunch time lineup would be Lebron surrounded by Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Hoford . Or maybe they play Smart in place of Hayward if they really want maximum defensive flexibility with the ability to switch everything.

It would be a guaranteed chip for Boston but I don't know that even Ainge is that cold blooded

[Ruzious]

Sato, 2019 first, Kelly Oubre for

Kenneth Faried, 2018 first (#14), 2018 2nd (#43)

Look. I get it. It hurts. Most realistic trades hurt. But lets be real about this, the Sato and Oubre contract extensions are extremely troublesome to our cap, and Sato is never going to flourish here.

I think its a fantastic trade for both teams. Sato would be terrific for Denver, Oubre is the wing with potential they need, and they save money on the Faried contract that they've been trying to move for a while now (2.5 million savings):

https://www.denverstiffs.com/2018/5/29/17407714/adrian-wojnarowski-denver-nuggets-pursued-kenneth-faried-trade-nba-trade-rumors-nba-draft

For the Wiz, we're guaranteed Robert Williams and Zhaire Smith at worst. And we're armed with #43, #44, and the Markieff and Gortat deals to try to move up in the second round.

Even if you take out the 1st rounder for next year, I think you're giving up too much.

[Ruzious]

On the trade board, someone suggested a 3-way trade where Boston sends Kyrie to Phoenix, Phoenix sends picks and expirings to Cleveland, and Cleveland sends Lebron to Boston.

Imagine a Boston Celtics team plus Lebron and Hayward (and one more year of experience for Tatum and Brown). Their crunch time lineup would be Lebron surrounded by Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Hoford . Or maybe they play Smart in place of Hayward if they really want maximum defensive flexibility with the ability to switch everything.

They wouldn't have any crunch times until the finals with GS.

[NatP4]

I wouldn't trade Sato&Oubre for 14.

I'm all aboard moving Oubre to Denver for 14 though. I suggested it on their board and the majority of them thought it was a fair deal and fit the description of the type of player they need. Major buy on replacing Oubre with one of SGA or Smith (one will be there), not because I doubt Oubre's potential, but because we can't afford him.

[Dat2U]

Pass on giving up 3 assets for 1. That's too rich for my taste.

Sato lost minutes to a guy from China in the middle of a playoff run. Chances of him extending with us are quite low at this point.

So it's basically Oubre and a pick in a worse draft at an inferior draft position for Robert Williams.

I don't have enough confidence in Oubre to say no to that personally.

Sato still has value as a 6-7 wing who can run the offense in a pinch, hit open shots and play quality defense.

I understand extending him is an unlikely option but that doesn't mean give him away for free.

I've mentioned a Sato for Indiana's 23rd pick multiple times. They have the cap room to absorb his salary and it's something Indy fans have interest in.

As for the 2019 pick --- I'm hesitant to trade that b/c that's the pick that likely helps get Mahinmi off our cap by next trade deadline.

[Dat2U]

I wouldn't trade Sato&Oubre for 14.

I'm all aboard moving Oubre to Denver for 14 though. I suggested it on their board and the majority of them thought it was a fair deal and fit the description of the type of player they need. Major buy on replacing Oubre with one of SGA or Smith (one will be there), not because I doubt Oubre's potential, but because we can't afford him.

Denver's board has offered suggestions including Faried for Oubre and filler and Arthur for Oubre & Smith, including the 14th pick.

Denver needs athleticism and help at the 3. They will likely lose Barton so Oubre would be a nice replacement and offers athleticism that Wilson Chandler can't.

Having the #14th pick would be awesome b/c it likely means 2 of Zhaire Smith, Robert Williams & Elie Okobo are available to us.

For example adding Zhaire & Robert to John Wall gives us a level of athleticism that few teams have and can compete with.

[payitforward]

You point out that Lamb had fewer turnovers and more rebounds than Beal every 48 minutes. But what if Lamb's role was to be his team's primary scorer AND ballhandler (as was often the case for Beal with Wall out)--and Lamb was regularly double- and triple-teamed. Do you think Lamb might maybe have more turnovers in that role? Do you think he might possibly also have fewer rebounds?

Here we have a perfect example of not bothering to look at facts & instead finding some special situation in the case of one player that doesn't pertain to the other & that serves to explain away problems.

You suggest that had Lamb had more responsibility, he would likely have had fewer rebounds this year -- the real point being that Beal would have MORE rebounds (&, by implication, better numbers in some other problem areas too) if he weren't carrying this extra load ("primary scorer AND ballhandler").

Only one little problem, Zards: last year was Brad's best year as a rebounder in his entire 6 year career. In fact, he got over 40% more rebounds per 36 minutes in 2017-18 than he did in 2016-17, which was by far a better year for him overall.

So, it's back to the drawing board to invent some different reason why Jeremy Lamb got so many more rebounds than Beal -- even in Beal's best rebounding year.

Let me help you with one you don't even have to make up: Jeremy Lamb is a much better rebounding guard than Bradley Beal. Period.

Most NBA guards are, as a matter of fact. In 2016-17, by far Brad's best year as a player, he was in the bottom 20% in rebounding among all NBA guards.

[NatP4]

Kyle O'Quinn is going to be a free agent after he declines his PO, seems to always be under the radar, maybe we can scoop him up?

[payitforward]

Not only was Embiid exposed, but Simmons was as well. Unless and until Simmons learns how to make anything but layups and dunks teams are going to effectively shutdown his offensive game...like the Celts did at critical times during the playoffs.

This is problematic. We could argue if Philly could have beaten us this year or not. But I don't think we would argue that the very young Sixers will take a bigger step forward than we will (as things stand) next year. And it isn't just Simmons and Embbid, I think Saric will take another huge step forward next year as well (as he did this year). And if one of Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu-Cabarrot steps up - well there you have it.

And then they - like the Celts - will beat us like a drum.

Boston will be really good. Nuff said, no need to go into too much detail.

As far as Philly. It comes down to development of Simmons, Embiid & Saric and it's not a completely rosey picture. Embiid isn't a development issue. It's basically comes down to whether he can defend on the perimeter or not. Of course he can make teams pay for going small but likely not at the rate teams will make him pay on the perimeter.

Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot outside of the paint. For him to ever maximize his wonderful gifts, it has to happen. Considering how remedial his jumper is, there's legitimate concern about whether it will ever happen.

Saric is the one who could likely take a significant step forward.... but his best position will eventually be the same position Embiid plays.

Fultz is a mental mess. I don't know if he ever gets it together or finds his jumper. Korkmaz & TLC are nothing more than fringe prospects at this point.

Oh man....

First off, Philly won 10 games in 2016-17 & then won 52 games the following year. Embiid & Simmons are easily better than any two players we have. Way better. Saric is young & developing -- certainly as valuable an asset as Oubre, probably more valuable. Nor do I see any reason he can't be on the court with Embiid.

T.J. McConnell has become a terrific player. We don't have a single front court player coming off the bench who is anywhere near as productive as Richaun Holmes, & they can't even find minutes for him. & then they have 3 other guys who are young prospects out of R1. Plus the picks they have in the upcoming draft. E.g. they'll have their pick among all the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us at 15. They will have their pick -- & take 3 -- of the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us in R2.

This year, they'll have 11 guys @ $70m, plus 2 rookies from R1, to make it 13 guys at $75m. Without much competition, they will be able to sign whatever FAs they can do a deal with. They can sign LeBron & then sign one other top-level FA & still have fewer salary problems than we have. In fact, it's virtually inconceivable that they have the kind of problems we have. Unlike us they have trade assets.

The idea that someone is going to "shut down Simmons offensive game" is fantasy. Simmons was a rookie this year. His rookie year was comfortably better than any year John Wall has had or will ever have. It was also comfortably better than any year Brad Beal has had or will ever have. It was also better than any year Porter has had or is likely ever to have. Of course it would be even better for him -- make him one of the top 2-5 players in the game -- if he developed a great jumper. Then again... didn't they used to say LeBron couldn't shoot?

We have no chance whatever to be anywhere near as good as Philly in the next 5 years -- unless serious injuries to both Embiid & Simmons change their roster picture.

[Dat2U]

This is problematic. We could argue if Philly could have beaten us this year or not. But I don't think we would argue that the very young Sixers will take a bigger step forward than we will (as things stand) next year. And it isn't just Simmons and Embbid, I think Saric will take another huge step forward next year as well (as he did this year). And if one of Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu-Cabarrot steps up - well there you have it.

And then they - like the Celts - will beat us like a drum.

Boston will be really good. Nuff said, no need to go into too much detail.

As far as Philly. It comes down to development of Simmons, Embiid & Saric and it's not a completely rosey picture. Embiid isn't a development issue. It's basically comes down to whether he can defend on the perimeter or not. Of course he can make teams pay for going small but likely not at the rate teams will make him pay on the perimeter.

Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot outside of the paint. For him to ever maximize his wonderful gifts, it has to happen. Considering how remedial his jumper is, there's legitimate concern about whether it will ever happen.

Saric is the one who could likely take a significant step forward.... but his best position will eventually be the same position Embiid plays.

Fultz is a mental mess. I don't know if he ever gets it together or finds his jumper. Korkmaz & TLC are nothing more than fringe prospects at this point.

Oh man....

First off, Philly won 10 games in 2016-17 & then won 52 games the following year. Embiid & Simmons are easily better than any two players we have. Way better. Saric is young & developing -- certainly as valuable an asset as Oubre, probably more valuable. Nor do I see any reason he can't be on the court with Embiid.

T.J. McConnell has become a terrific player. We don't have a single front court player coming off the bench who is anywhere near as productive as Richaun Holmes, & they can't even find minutes for him. & then they have 3 other guys who are young prospects out of R1. Plus the picks they have in the upcoming draft. E.g. they'll have their pick among all the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us at 15. They will have their pick -- & take 3 -- of the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us in R2.

This year, they'll have 11 guys @ $70m, plus 2 rookies from R1, to make it 13 guys at $75m. Without much competition, they will be able to sign whatever FAs they can do a deal with. They can sign LeBron & then sign one other top-level FA & still have fewer salary problems than we have. In fact, it's virtually inconceivable that they have the kind of problems we have. Unlike us they have trade assets.

The idea that someone is going to "shut down Simmons offensive game" is fantasy. Simmons was a rookie this year. His rookie year was comfortably better than any year John Wall has had or will ever have. It was also comfortably better than any year Brad Beal has had or will ever have. It was also better than any year Porter has had or is likely ever to have. Of course it would be even better for him -- make him one of the top 2-5 players in the game -- if he developed a great jumper. Then again... didn't they used to say LeBron couldn't shoot?

We have no chance whatever to be anywhere near as good as Philly in the next 5 years -- unless serious injuries to both Embiid & Simmons change their roster picture.

I'm not going to delve into the basketball portion of this discussion at this point because I have a bigger point to make:

I'm sorry ---- and this is a part of my mental makeup ---- but I refuse to buy into the idea that there's no hope. Your expressing what I'd call a losers mentality. Maybe it works well in business where the bottom line matters the most but for sports, your analysis and outlook is disappointing and regrettable. Your basically saying what's the point in competing over the next five years? What an awful way to think in terms of competition.

What if the Caps thought like this after losing key pieces in FA and looking like a inferior team compared to last year most of this season?

What if Maryland Baltimore County paid attention to the stats that showed they had a 0.1% chance of beating Virginia?

What if LeBron looked at his Cavs roster and said there's no way i can win the East this year with this bunch?

You do not have a crystal ball. You cannot predict the future. You cannot tell me with 100% certainty that Philadelphia will be better over the next 5 years than the Wizards.

That's why we actually play the game and not determine winners by statistics.

[payitforward]

I'm not going to delve into the basketball portion of this discussion at this point because I have a bigger point to make:

I'm sorry ---- and this is a part of my mental makeup ---- but I refuse to buy into the idea that there's no hope. Your expressing what I'd call a losers mentality. Maybe it works well in business where the bottom line matters the most but for sports, your analysis and outlook is disappointing and regrettable. Your basically saying what's the point in competing over the next five years? What an awful way to think in terms of competition.

What if the Caps thought like this after losing key pieces in FA and looking like a inferior team compared to last year most of this season?

What if Maryland Baltimore County paid attention to the stats that showed they had a 0.1% chance of beating Virginia?

What if LeBron looked at his Cavs roster and said there's no way i can win the East this year with this bunch?

You do not have a crystal ball. You cannot predict the future. You cannot tell me with 100% certainty that Philadelphia will be better over the next 5 years than the Wizards.

That's why we actually play the game and not determine winners by statistics.

Fair enough. I think I have to accept this criticism. Not, as you say, of the basketball portion, but I don't want to be a downer. & in fact, it's not at all part of my nature. So, you have my apologies, Dat.

That said, I'd like at least to say what my motivation is: I'd like to compete for a title. Hence, when I see people saying that our players are better than they are, or whatever of that kind, what it tells me is that we're willing to put off contending in order to have a better opinion of our own team than is warranted.

I remember in Ted's famous -- or should I now call it "infamous" -- ten point plan he said something like "when you see that you can't contend, don't fool yourself or hesitate: rebuild."

So that's where I'm coming from. But, of course, I don't have to insist on that POV at all times or belabor it. I'll try to do better. Thanks for pointing it out, dat.

[dckingsfan]

Boston will be really good. Nuff said, no need to go into too much detail.

As far as Philly. It comes down to development of Simmons, Embiid & Saric and it's not a completely rosey picture. Embiid isn't a development issue. It's basically comes down to whether he can defend on the perimeter or not. Of course he can make teams pay for going small but likely not at the rate teams will make him pay on the perimeter.

Simmons is going to have to learn to shoot outside of the paint. For him to ever maximize his wonderful gifts, it has to happen. Considering how remedial his jumper is, there's legitimate concern about whether it will ever happen.

Saric is the one who could likely take a significant step forward.... but his best position will eventually be the same position Embiid plays.

Fultz is a mental mess. I don't know if he ever gets it together or finds his jumper. Korkmaz & TLC are nothing more than fringe prospects at this point.

Oh man....

First off, Philly won 10 games in 2016-17 & then won 52 games the following year. Embiid & Simmons are easily better than any two players we have. Way better. Saric is young & developing -- certainly as valuable an asset as Oubre, probably more valuable. Nor do I see any reason he can't be on the court with Embiid.

T.J. McConnell has become a terrific player. We don't have a single front court player coming off the bench who is anywhere near as productive as Richaun Holmes, & they can't even find minutes for him. & then they have 3 other guys who are young prospects out of R1. Plus the picks they have in the upcoming draft. E.g. they'll have their pick among all the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us at 15. They will have their pick -- & take 3 -- of the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us in R2.

This year, they'll have 11 guys @ $70m, plus 2 rookies from R1, to make it 13 guys at $75m. Without much competition, they will be able to sign whatever FAs they can do a deal with. They can sign LeBron & then sign one other top-level FA & still have fewer salary problems than we have. In fact, it's virtually inconceivable that they have the kind of problems we have. Unlike us they have trade assets.

The idea that someone is going to "shut down Simmons offensive game" is fantasy. Simmons was a rookie this year. His rookie year was comfortably better than any year John Wall has had or will ever have. It was also comfortably better than any year Brad Beal has had or will ever have. It was also better than any year Porter has had or is likely ever to have. Of course it would be even better for him -- make him one of the top 2-5 players in the game -- if he developed a great jumper. Then again... didn't they used to say LeBron couldn't shoot?

We have no chance whatever to be anywhere near as good as Philly in the next 5 years -- unless serious injuries to both Embiid & Simmons change their roster picture.

I'm not going to delve into the basketball portion of this discussion at this point because I have a bigger point to make:

I'm sorry ---- and this is a part of my mental makeup ---- but I refuse to buy into the idea that there's no hope. Your expressing what I'd call a losers mentality. Maybe it works well in business where the bottom line matters the most but for sports, your analysis and outlook is disappointing and regrettable. Your basically saying what's the point in competing over the next five years? What an awful way to think in terms of competition.

What if the Caps thought like this after losing key pieces in FA and looking like a inferior team compared to last year most of this season?

What if Maryland Baltimore County paid attention to the stats that showed they had a 0.1% chance of beating Virginia?

What if LeBron looked at his Cavs roster and said there's no way i can win the East this year with this bunch?

You do not have a crystal ball. You cannot predict the future. You cannot tell me with 100% certainty that Philadelphia will be better over the next 5 years than the Wizards.

That's why we actually play the game and not determine winners by statistics.

Hey Dat, this started with you dismissing Philly (you didn't dismiss Boston though). And you shouldn't have as PIF rightly points out.

You somehow think that holding the course with Wall/Beal/Porter is the way to go - okay, I get that. Is there a chance that it would workout - yes. But it is rational to believe there is a VERY small chance, surely you acknowledge that fact - not a 100% but way more than say a 1 in 5 shot. We are in a box... that isn't pessimistic - that is a fact.

Pessimistic would be that we can't compete for a playoff position - we can and will - but we have a serious cap with our current talent and payroll. I don't think that is Pollyannaish in any way shape or form.

I don't want to beat you up for being irrationally exuberant and I hope that you don't be me up for being hopelessly pessimistic. But... I think this is a good place to rationally give the best and worst scenarios of where we think the team is and not dismiss the other's views.

[Dat2U]

I'm not going to delve into the basketball portion of this discussion at this point because I have a bigger point to make:

I'm sorry ---- and this is a part of my mental makeup ---- but I refuse to buy into the idea that there's no hope. Your expressing what I'd call a losers mentality. Maybe it works well in business where the bottom line matters the most but for sports, your analysis and outlook is disappointing and regrettable. Your basically saying what's the point in competing over the next five years? What an awful way to think in terms of competition.

What if the Caps thought like this after losing key pieces in FA and looking like a inferior team compared to last year most of this season?

What if Maryland Baltimore County paid attention to the stats that showed they had a 0.1% chance of beating Virginia?

What if LeBron looked at his Cavs roster and said there's no way i can win the East this year with this bunch?

You do not have a crystal ball. You cannot predict the future. You cannot tell me with 100% certainty that Philadelphia will be better over the next 5 years than the Wizards.

That's why we actually play the game and not determine winners by statistics.

Fair enough. I think I have to accept this criticism. Not, as you say, of the basketball portion, but I don't want to be a downer. & in fact, it's not at all part of my nature. So, you have my apologies, Dat.

That said, I'd like at least to say what my motivation is: I'd like to compete for a title. Hence, when I see people saying that our players are better than they are, or whatever of that kind, what it tells me is that we're willing to put off contending in order to have a better opinion of our own team than is warranted.

I remember in Ted's famous -- or should I now call it "infamous" -- ten point plan he said something like "when you see that you can't contend, don't fool yourself or hesitate: rebuild."

So that's where I'm coming from. But, of course, I don't have to insist on that POV at all times or belabor it. I'll try to do better. Thanks for pointing it out, dat.

I appreciate it sir. Now I'd happily dive into the b-ball portion of the argument..

For Ben Simmons, less than 4% of his shots were beyond 16 ft. He made 0 3pt's on the year. This is not a "LeBron needing to work on his shot type of example". This is MKG level stuff - the guy needs to start from scratch. Anything beyond a layup is a push shot. That's woefully inadequate for a star level prospect. He's potentially wonderful at everything else but a being a complete non-shooter throws a significant wrench in his ceiling. To get better than he is right now, that shot has to become passable and were a long way from that.

For Embiid... as I mentioned earlier, his future impact has little do with his development as much as it has to do with his ability and willingness to defend Gs on switches on defense. He struggled with it against Miami & Boston. It muted his impact in both series. Embiid is a wonderfully talented 7-0 footer. He's also a massive guy. Being quick enough at his size to guard smaller players is a major challenge that teams will continue to try to exploit.

McConnell is a backup PG. Nothing more. His future in Philly is likely tied to whether Fultz gets it together or not. Holmes is interesting but as mentioned, hes not even a rotation guy for them so it's hard to see him as guy to worry about yet.

[Dat2U]

Oh man....

First off, Philly won 10 games in 2016-17 & then won 52 games the following year. Embiid & Simmons are easily better than any two players we have. Way better. Saric is young & developing -- certainly as valuable an asset as Oubre, probably more valuable. Nor do I see any reason he can't be on the court with Embiid.

T.J. McConnell has become a terrific player. We don't have a single front court player coming off the bench who is anywhere near as productive as Richaun Holmes, & they can't even find minutes for him. & then they have 3 other guys who are young prospects out of R1. Plus the picks they have in the upcoming draft. E.g. they'll have their pick among all the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us at 15. They will have their pick -- & take 3 -- of the guys we are hope hope hoping will fall to us in R2.

This year, they'll have 11 guys @ $70m, plus 2 rookies from R1, to make it 13 guys at $75m. Without much competition, they will be able to sign whatever FAs they can do a deal with. They can sign LeBron & then sign one other top-level FA & still have fewer salary problems than we have. In fact, it's virtually inconceivable that they have the kind of problems we have. Unlike us they have trade assets.

The idea that someone is going to "shut down Simmons offensive game" is fantasy. Simmons was a rookie this year. His rookie year was comfortably better than any year John Wall has had or will ever have. It was also comfortably better than any year Brad Beal has had or will ever have. It was also better than any year Porter has had or is likely ever to have. Of course it would be even better for him -- make him one of the top 2-5 players in the game -- if he developed a great jumper. Then again... didn't they used to say LeBron couldn't shoot?

We have no chance whatever to be anywhere near as good as Philly in the next 5 years -- unless serious injuries to both Embiid & Simmons change their roster picture.

I'm not going to delve into the basketball portion of this discussion at this point because I have a bigger point to make:

I'm sorry ---- and this is a part of my mental makeup ---- but I refuse to buy into the idea that there's no hope. Your expressing what I'd call a losers mentality. Maybe it works well in business where the bottom line matters the most but for sports, your analysis and outlook is disappointing and regrettable. Your basically saying what's the point in competing over the next five years? What an awful way to think in terms of competition.

What if the Caps thought like this after losing key pieces in FA and looking like a inferior team compared to last year most of this season?

What if Maryland Baltimore County paid attention to the stats that showed they had a 0.1% chance of beating Virginia?

What if LeBron looked at his Cavs roster and said there's no way i can win the East this year with this bunch?

You do not have a crystal ball. You cannot predict the future. You cannot tell me with 100% certainty that Philadelphia will be better over the next 5 years than the Wizards.

That's why we actually play the game and not determine winners by statistics.

Hey Dat, this started with you dismissing Philly (you didn't dismiss Boston though). And you shouldn't have as PIF rightly points out.

You somehow think that holding the course with Wall/Beal/Porter is the way to go - okay, I get that. Is there a chance that it would workout - yes. But it is rational to believe there is a VERY small chance, surely you acknowledge that fact - not a 100% but way more than say a 1 in 5 shot. We are in a box... that isn't pessimistic - that is a fact.

Pessimistic would be that we can't compete for a playoff position - we can and will - but we have a serious cap with our current talent and payroll. I don't think that is Pollyannaish in any way shape or form.

I don't want to beat you up for being irrationally exuberant and I hope that you don't be me up for being hopelessly pessimistic. But... I think this is a good place to rationally give the best and worst scenarios of where we think the team is and not dismiss the other's views.

I didn't dismiss Philly. I simply challenged the assumption that we have no hope of competing with them.

Also I never said the Wizards should hold course outside of Wall, Beal, Porter. I honestly think 2/3rds of the roster should be blown up. I'm also not totally against trading anyone but not where the primary effort is to dump one of our best players' salary.

I've asked time and time again, what's a real plan going forward if were trading one of big salaries (likely Wall) and all I hear is cap flexibility --- which gets us absolutely nothing in terms of actually improving the team.

I keep hearing we cant win with Wall but I haven't seen or heard a clear direction that we can go in and succeed without him.

If folks are suggesting we blow everything up and rebuild --- that's something you will not see me agree on as long as Ernie is still here.

[dckingsfan]

I'm not going to delve into the basketball portion of this discussion at this point because I have a bigger point to make:

I'm sorry ---- and this is a part of my mental makeup ---- but I refuse to buy into the idea that there's no hope. Your expressing what I'd call a losers mentality. Maybe it works well in business where the bottom line matters the most but for sports, your analysis and outlook is disappointing and regrettable. Your basically saying what's the point in competing over the next five years? What an awful way to think in terms of competition.

What if the Caps thought like this after losing key pieces in FA and looking like a inferior team compared to last year most of this season?

What if Maryland Baltimore County paid attention to the stats that showed they had a 0.1% chance of beating Virginia?

What if LeBron looked at his Cavs roster and said there's no way i can win the East this year with this bunch?

You do not have a crystal ball. You cannot predict the future. You cannot tell me with 100% certainty that Philadelphia will be better over the next 5 years than the Wizards.

That's why we actually play the game and not determine winners by statistics.

Hey Dat, this started with you dismissing Philly (you didn't dismiss Boston though). And you shouldn't have as PIF rightly points out.

You somehow think that holding the course with Wall/Beal/Porter is the way to go - okay, I get that. Is there a chance that it would workout - yes. But it is rational to believe there is a VERY small chance, surely you acknowledge that fact - not a 100% but way more than say a 1 in 5 shot. We are in a box... that isn't pessimistic - that is a fact.

Pessimistic would be that we can't compete for a playoff position - we can and will - but we have a serious cap with our current talent and payroll. I don't think that is Pollyannaish in any way shape or form.

I don't want to beat you up for being irrationally exuberant and I hope that you don't be me up for being hopelessly pessimistic. But... I think this is a good place to rationally give the best and worst scenarios of where we think the team is and not dismiss the other's views.

I didn't dismiss Philly. I simply challenged the assumption that we have no hope of competing with them.

Also I never said the Wizards should hold course outside of Wall, Beal, Porter. I honestly think 2/3rds of the roster should be blown up. I'm also not totally against trading anyone but not where the primary effort is to dump one of our best players' salary.

I've asked time and time again, what's a real plan going forward if were trading one of big salaries (likely Wall) and all I hear is cap flexibility --- which gets us absolutely nothing in terms of actually improving the team.

I keep hearing we cant win with Wall but I haven't seen or heard a clear direction that we can go in and succeed without him.

If folks are suggesting we blow everything up and rebuild --- that's something you will not see me agree on as long as Ernie is still here.

Okay got it. And yes, as long as EG is here - we aren't in any kind of position regardless.

[payitforward]

...If folks are suggesting we blow everything up and rebuild --- that's something you will not see me agree on as long as Ernie is still here.

Well... it would be hard not to see the point in that! I don't know if I could stand to watch another series of moves like those of the last 9 years.

The problem is that instead we get to watch the results of this series of moves.