2017-18 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread

[RCM88x]

For sure. I do think it's interesting that Durant is consistently lower in RAPM (including multiyear) than box score stats would imply. It's been a consistent thing throughout his career from a variety of sources of RAPM.

Another guy that we see that with to an even larger extent is Anthony Davis. Last year he was like 52 in vanilla RAPM and this year 31. That's good, without a doubt, but not a level above guys like Towns, Jokic, Horford.

We can all draw our own conclusions on how much to weigh that, but it's an undeniable and consistent data point.

Am I the only one who isn't really suprised by these two sort of underpreforming in these metrics?

You watch the play and personally I just don't see the impact that a Curry, LeBron, even a CP3, Gobert, Embiid etc... have. Especially outside of '15 for AD and after the foot injury for KD. I just don't think either guys have reached those levels since and probably never will.

I don't know if it really means anything, or if I'm just barking up the wrong tree, or perhaps it's just confirmation bias. But I just can't say I'm surprised by these numbers. The tall, athletic guy who can shoot always seems to be overrated in their actual impact and difference making on the court outside of putting up good box scores.

I'm not sure what the profile is of these guys, but Dirk always had large impact, so not sure it's just about tall scorers who don't do much else.

I think it often comes down to some sort of "gravity" these guys have and whether they can exploit it. Durant should have much more gravity than he seems to actually have on the court.

Dirk might be the one exception here. Though in the playoffs he was sometimes a bit inconsistent, but that's probably a complaint with anyone.

With him though I think he did a much better job picking his sports and knowing how to use his size and shooting to improve the offense as a whole, instead of just get his points. Maybe that's due to coaching or whatever, but he just seems to know the game better than most of these other guys.

And yeah, I completely agree that these guys should have more "gravity" than they really do. Maybe the height actually works againt them in some way, but I don't really know.

[dontcalltimeout]

But Multi-Year or Prior-Year informed RAPM can (to an extent) proxy-account for this by having a concrete value to revert to, as opposed to 0, which is part of why those sets perform better ITO predictive value.

For sure. I do think it's interesting that Durant is consistently lower in RAPM (including multiyear) than box score stats would imply. It's been a consistent thing throughout his career from a variety of sources of RAPM.

Another guy that we see that with to an even larger extent is Anthony Davis. Last year he was like 52 in vanilla RAPM and this year 31. That's good, without a doubt, but not a level above guys like Towns, Jokic, Horford.

We can all draw our own conclusions on how much to weigh that, but it's an undeniable and consistent data point.

Am I the only one who isn't really suprised by these two sort of underpreforming in these metrics?

You watch the play and personally I just don't see the impact that a Curry, LeBron, even a CP3, Gobert, Embiid etc... have. Especially outside of '15 for AD and after the foot injury for KD. I just don't think either guys have reached those levels since and probably never will.

I don't know if it really means anything, or if I'm just barking up the wrong tree, or perhaps it's just confirmation bias. But I just can't say I'm surprised by these numbers. The tall, athletic guy who can shoot always seems to be overrated in their actual impact and difference making on the court outside of putting up good box scores.

I am not at all surprised, I just feel like i have to hedge on certain guys that are really highly regarded among fans not just here but everywhere.

Here's what I think it is with AD in particular (i single him out bc he's gotten a lot of support as an MVP / POY candidate). He is an awesome player to behold. The things he does well are amazing, and they're also things that are very easy to track & follow with our eyes (they happen on the ball). When you think of him you think alley-oops and highlight blocks.

The problem is I don't think he adds much value as a creator (his passing numbers look really poor). He's a great finisher, and it's valuable when a guy finishes more efficiently than anyone else, but he doesn't add much value on plays where he's not directly involved. Really roughly: If he finishes a Pick and Roll at 1.177 PPP and the average is 1.072, he's adding .005 PPP in incremental value. That's great for an offense, but it's not the same as creating opportunities (think Elgee's example of Nash creating the power play that leads to an Amare dunk).

From what I've seen he's not great at using his own threat of scoring to create opportunities for his teammates (doesn't bring the probing of ball-handlers or the vision/ability to make something out of nothing that Jokic has). So that leads to really gaudy stats but not as much of a global impact on his team.

[nolang1]

But Multi-Year or Prior-Year informed RAPM can (to an extent) proxy-account for this by having a concrete value to revert to, as opposed to 0, which is part of why those sets perform better ITO predictive value.

For sure. I do think it's interesting that Durant is consistently lower in RAPM (including multiyear) than box score stats would imply. It's been a consistent thing throughout his career from a variety of sources of RAPM.

Another guy that we see that with to an even larger extent is Anthony Davis. Last year he was like 52 in vanilla RAPM and this year 31. That's good, without a doubt, but not a level above guys like Towns, Jokic, Horford.

We can all draw our own conclusions on how much to weigh that, but it's an undeniable and consistent data point.

Am I the only one who isn't really suprised by these two sort of underpreforming in these metrics?

You watch the play and personally I just don't see the impact that a Curry, LeBron, even a CP3, Gobert, Embiid etc... have. Especially outside of '15 for AD and after the foot injury for KD. I just don't think either guys have reached those levels since and probably never will.

I don't know if it really means anything, or if I'm just barking up the wrong tree, or perhaps it's just confirmation bias. But I just can't say I'm surprised by these numbers. The tall, athletic guy who can shoot always seems to be overrated in their actual impact and difference making on the court outside of putting up good box scores.

I wouldn't say they're ballhogs, but both players are simply not that great at passing. It's not like they constantly overlook teammates to jack up contested shots, but there are plenty of opportunities that pass them by and then when they swing the ball to someone else (or get it to the open player slightly late), the offense is going to get a worse shot than if they'd made a great pass earlier. That doesn't show up as anything in the box score, but it adds up. Offensively, Dirk in his prime spaced the floor much more than AD (who is not as good or prolific a three-point shooter as his unicorn reputation suggests) and was more willing to set good screens and go into the post than KD (spacing the floor is more beneficial if it's a big guy rather than a wing who has to come out and guard you).

Then on defense both players are better shot-blockers than they are overall defenders, although AD is having his best year on that end and is deserving of all-defense consideration.

[RCM88x]

For sure. I do think it's interesting that Durant is consistently lower in RAPM (including multiyear) than box score stats would imply. It's been a consistent thing throughout his career from a variety of sources of RAPM.

Another guy that we see that with to an even larger extent is Anthony Davis. Last year he was like 52 in vanilla RAPM and this year 31. That's good, without a doubt, but not a level above guys like Towns, Jokic, Horford.

We can all draw our own conclusions on how much to weigh that, but it's an undeniable and consistent data point.

Am I the only one who isn't really suprised by these two sort of underpreforming in these metrics?

You watch the play and personally I just don't see the impact that a Curry, LeBron, even a CP3, Gobert, Embiid etc... have. Especially outside of '15 for AD and after the foot injury for KD. I just don't think either guys have reached those levels since and probably never will.

I don't know if it really means anything, or if I'm just barking up the wrong tree, or perhaps it's just confirmation bias. But I just can't say I'm surprised by these numbers. The tall, athletic guy who can shoot always seems to be overrated in their actual impact and difference making on the court outside of putting up good box scores.

I am not at all surprised, I just feel like i have to hedge on certain guys that are really highly regarded among fans not just here but everywhere.

Here's what I think it is with AD in particular (i single him out bc he's gotten a lot of support as an MVP / POY candidate). He is an awesome player to behold. The things he does well are amazing, and they're also things that are very easy to track & follow with our eyes (they happen on the ball). When you think of him you think alley-oops and highlight blocks.

The problem is I don't think he adds much value as a creator (his passing numbers look really poor). He's a great finisher, and it's valuable when a guy finishes more efficiently than anyone else, but he doesn't add much value on plays where he's not directly involved. Really roughly: If he finishes a Pick and Roll at 1.177 PPP and the average is 1.072, he's adding .005 PPP in incremental value. That's great for an offense, but it's not the same as creating opportunities (think Elgee's example of Nash creating the power play that leads to an Amare dunk).

From what I've seen he's not great at using his own threat of scoring to create opportunities for his teammates (doesn't bring the probing of ball-handlers or the vision/ability to make something out of nothing that Jokic has). So that leads to really gaudy stats but not as much of a global impact on his team.

Yea, I completely get what you're getting at here. Being long and tall makes many things easier as a player, such as scoring, finishing, or shooting even. However, I don't know if it makes you a great "basketball player" in the sense that ultra impact guys like prime Nash, Jordan, or a Shaq did. Those guys were great basketball players first and great athletes second (maybe a bit less in Nash's case). A little off topic but this is the weird thing to me with Lebron, because he's kind of both equally, which is probably why he's such an interesting player to analyze.

Secondly, I honestly feel that perhaps height is just not that valuable away from the basket in the NBA. Obviously its useful in the paint or around the rim, but when it comes to the perimeter it might just not be that valuable. Its so rare that shots actually get blocked on the perimeter in the NBA, and anyone who's really worthwhile discussing in this matter has no difficulty creating their own shot. Outside of Dirk and maybe a few others, I have a hard time thinking of guys who really use their height well away from the paint. Perhaps a Magic, Bird, Simmons... but those cases are a bit different.

Anyways, interesting discussions and things that I think are far more fun to talk about than just the average player comparisons we get here.

[RCM88x]

For sure. I do think it's interesting that Durant is consistently lower in RAPM (including multiyear) than box score stats would imply. It's been a consistent thing throughout his career from a variety of sources of RAPM.

Another guy that we see that with to an even larger extent is Anthony Davis. Last year he was like 52 in vanilla RAPM and this year 31. That's good, without a doubt, but not a level above guys like Towns, Jokic, Horford.

We can all draw our own conclusions on how much to weigh that, but it's an undeniable and consistent data point.

Am I the only one who isn't really suprised by these two sort of underpreforming in these metrics?

You watch the play and personally I just don't see the impact that a Curry, LeBron, even a CP3, Gobert, Embiid etc... have. Especially outside of '15 for AD and after the foot injury for KD. I just don't think either guys have reached those levels since and probably never will.

I don't know if it really means anything, or if I'm just barking up the wrong tree, or perhaps it's just confirmation bias. But I just can't say I'm surprised by these numbers. The tall, athletic guy who can shoot always seems to be overrated in their actual impact and difference making on the court outside of putting up good box scores.

I wouldn't say they're ballhogs, but both players are simply not that great at passing. It's not like they constantly overlook teammates to jack up contested shots, but there are plenty of opportunities that pass them by and then when they swing the ball to someone else (or get it to the open player slightly late), the offense is going to get a worse shot than if they'd made a great pass earlier. That doesn't show up as anything in the box score, but it adds up. Offensively, Dirk in his prime spaced the floor much more than AD (who is not as good or prolific a three-point shooter as his unicorn reputation suggests) and was more willing to set good screens and go into the post than KD (spacing the floor is more beneficial if it's a big guy rather than a wing who has to come out and guard you).

Then on defense both players are better shot-blockers than they are overall defenders, although AD is having his best year on that end and is deserving of all-defense consideration.

You can see my post above, but I think its a bit more complicated that just they aren't great passers. Kind of goes into the good basketball player first discussion, but I do think there is some sort of overvaluing of length and height when it comes to the offensive end, especially in this era.

[nolang1]

Am I the only one who isn't really suprised by these two sort of underpreforming in these metrics?

You watch the play and personally I just don't see the impact that a Curry, LeBron, even a CP3, Gobert, Embiid etc... have. Especially outside of '15 for AD and after the foot injury for KD. I just don't think either guys have reached those levels since and probably never will.

I don't know if it really means anything, or if I'm just barking up the wrong tree, or perhaps it's just confirmation bias. But I just can't say I'm surprised by these numbers. The tall, athletic guy who can shoot always seems to be overrated in their actual impact and difference making on the court outside of putting up good box scores.

I wouldn't say they're ballhogs, but both players are simply not that great at passing. It's not like they constantly overlook teammates to jack up contested shots, but there are plenty of opportunities that pass them by and then when they swing the ball to someone else (or get it to the open player slightly late), the offense is going to get a worse shot than if they'd made a great pass earlier. That doesn't show up as anything in the box score, but it adds up. Offensively, Dirk in his prime spaced the floor much more than AD (who is not as good or prolific a three-point shooter as his unicorn reputation suggests) and was more willing to set good screens and go into the post than KD (spacing the floor is more beneficial if it's a big guy rather than a wing who has to come out and guard you).

Then on defense both players are better shot-blockers than they are overall defenders, although AD is having his best year on that end and is deserving of all-defense consideration.

You can see my post above, but I think its a bit more complicated that just they aren't great passers. Kind of goes into the good basketball player first discussion, but I do think there is some sort of overvaluing of length and height when it comes to the offensive end, especially in this era.

I'll agree to disagree. Whenever someone makes a crazy highlight pass they've effectively created +1 ORPM out of thin air (wide open dunk/layup/3 vs. regular half-court offensive possession). Players like KD and AD make up for it some by being better 'pure scorers' and making fewer turnovers, but that's a big gap to overcome. Especially when you factor in that being a great passer is going to affect how teams send help defenders at you.

[thekdog34]

Durant was 78th in RAPM this year. His on/off was +1.4

Curry was #2 in RAPM and had an on/off of +13.0

[Styrian]

Durant was 78th in RAPM this year. His on/off was +1.4

Curry was #2 in RAPM and had an on/off of +13.0

Durant finishes #1 in playoff RAPM. By far the most impactful offensive player.

Curry playoff offensive impact has been lower than Kyrie Irving's last 5 postseasons(2014-2018).

[thekdog34]

Durant was 78th in RAPM this year. His on/off was +1.4

Curry was #2 in RAPM and had an on/off of +13.0

Durant finishes #1 in playoff RAPM. By far the most impactful offensive player.

Curry playoff offensive impact has been lower than Kyrie Irving's last 5 postseasons(2014-2018).

Curry was 5th in the playoffs coming off an injury. It's also a very small sample size compared to the regular season, especially when he missed the first round.

[bondom34]

Playoff only RAPM is about the opposite of the point of RAPM. Waaaaay too small a sample.

[thekdog34]

Playoff only RAPM is about the opposite of the point of RAPM. Waaaaay too small a sample.

And Curry has been far better as measured by RAPM over the last 4 years. It's not a good argument for Durant.

[Styrian]

Playoff only RAPM is about the opposite of the point of RAPM. Waaaaay too small a sample.

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

[bondom34]

Playoff only RAPM is about the opposite of the point of RAPM. Waaaaay too small a sample.

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

[Styrian]

Playoff only RAPM is about the opposite of the point of RAPM. Waaaaay too small a sample.

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

It's a representation of what happened. Low sample size just means recurrence of those events isn't as likely.

[bondom34]

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

It's a representation of what happened. Low sample size just means recurrence of those events isn't as likely.

No, there's a reason RPM isn't released until mid season. It's like using single game plus minus, not useful

[clyde21]

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

It's a representation of what happened. Low sample size just means recurrence of those events isn't as likely.

What are your thoughts on Curry's RAPM, On/Off and +/- in last year's PS?

[RCM88x]

Does prior informed RAPM exist in any capacity anymore or is it a dead dream? Even single year RS RAPM is quite noisy, single year PS RAPM almost feels pointless.

[Doctor MJ]

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

It's a representation of what happened. Low sample size just means recurrence of those events isn't as likely.

Different stats have different amounts of noise in the sample. This is not debatable.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[Trundle]

Playoff only RAPM is about the opposite of the point of RAPM. Waaaaay too small a sample.

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

About 25% of RS games is enough to have stable RAPM results. So while 1 year playoffs RAPM isn't too informative (besides players from teams, which reached the finals), that 2014-2018 set done by Shadow is a GREAT thing.

[dhsilv2]

This is same as saying that playoff stats don't matter because of low sample size. Yes, it's possible that was an anomaly and Curry offensive impact in the playoffs will be better in the future. But it's also possible his game doesn't translate in the playoffs and it's not as impactful. Simply dismissing it is ignorant.

No, because stats aren't entirely based on sample size.

The entire premise of RAPM is based upon needing a larger sample.

About 25% of RS games is enough to have stable RAPM results. So while 1 year playoffs RAPM isn't too informative (besides players from teams, which reached the finals), that 2014-2018 set done by Shadow is a GREAT thing.

25% of the season might possibly work because schedules are somewhat normalized, but in the playoffs they are anything but that.