ImageImageImage

Pre Draft Discussion

Moderators: bwgood77, lilfishi22, Qwigglez

Who would you rather take at 16 if one of these guys slipped?

Collin Sexton
22
45%
Miles Bridges
27
55%
 
Total votes: 49

AtheJ415
Head Coach
Posts: 6,581
And1: 5,560
Joined: Jul 07, 2014

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1301 » by AtheJ415 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:14 am

jcsunsfan wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:I am officially team Bagley. I don't like Ayton's attitude. He is not going to play hard if basketball is not his passion but just a way for his family to get rich. He wouldn't be complaining about missing his childhood or like being at work if he truly enjoyed playing basketball, saying those things tips me off that his mind won't be in the game and the long seasons are such a grind no way a player can succeed without the love for the game. it is big big red flag to be honest.

Bagley's mom's RealGM burner account. Sorry mom, he is going to live in Sacramento I think. It's really not bad. Only a short plane ride away, and HE can pay for the tix.


Lol. And yeah, none of these guys would be playing for free. He is a poor kid from the bahamas about to become a millionaire. Obviously money is a factor in his life. The good news is that in the NBA, the better you are at basketball, the more you get paid, so he has a pretty freaking big incentive to work his ass off if he wants a max or supermax and all of the endorsement deals that come with making all star games or being in MVP contention.
SuperSunsFan
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,771
And1: 1,364
Joined: May 24, 2018

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1302 » by SuperSunsFan » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:17 am

I think teams are giving up on young prospects way too soon. Gary Payton was drafted after his senior year and still he went through two mediocre seasons before he could establish himself in the league as a star player, same thing with Jalen Rose. It is crazy that players are pretty much given up on if they don't produce before 21, Steve Nash was largely considered a scrub until he got traded to the Mavs and given minutes by Don Nelson to prove his worth, he was 27 by then. I remember Steven Nash's jersey was selling at $9.99 at TJ Maxx in 2000 and there was a stack of it.

It is insane that these kids are drafted at 19 and expected to produce immediately
User avatar
lilfishi22
Forum Mod - Suns
Forum Mod - Suns
Posts: 36,229
And1: 24,587
Joined: Oct 16, 2007
Location: Australia

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1303 » by lilfishi22 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:17 am

bwgood77 wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
I'm not a Bagley fan, but I do think basketball means more to him. There are a few guys from the top group that seem more passionate with it...Doncic, Bagley, JJJr...it's just Bagley doesn't seem to have a real high bbiq. I a little bit feel the same way about Ayton with the team bbiq, and if basketball isn't real important to him either it won't be good.

But if so, I guess we will all live with it. Even if that's the case though, he will still put up #s so a lot of people will be happy anyway.

But then you also hear of his work ethic at AZ, and he is already great at so many things and so big an athletic, there is so much upside.

But it is funny that KG is his favorite player. I wish you felt half the passion from him that you felt from KG.

I don't doubt that Bagley probably has more passion for basketball than Ayton but it's more than that. His lack of defense, defensive fundamentals/awareness, low bbiq and the fact that he doesn't even have a reliable jumper like Ayton right now or that he doesn't really have any other high level skill aside from his feel and motor is really concerning to me. He has a ton of potential because of his motor and feel but coming into the league without high level skills and being a below average offhand finisher is just not good enough to me which is why he's never really rated that high for me as a prospect.

I see some Amare comparisons and he's one of my favourite players of all time but I've always wondered about his development if he never had a Steve Nash propping him up and essentially maximizing his PnR offense very early onwards. There isn't even a near Nash level passer in the group of teams that might draft Bagley so he's going to have to create on his own shot at the NBA level and that scares me.

Ayton attitude/passion doesn't concern me as much from an early impact and development perspective but it's something which I do consider when it comes to reaching his potential.


I'd take Ayton over Bagley 100x out of 100. I wasn't arguing for Bagley in any way. Just saying I can feel the passion. He's not high on my board at all.

no no I wasn't suggest you'd consider Bagley over Ayton, I was more expanding on your point.
User avatar
MathiasPW
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,688
And1: 2,807
Joined: Jan 02, 2010
Location: Brazil
   

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1304 » by MathiasPW » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:20 am

The argumment for Ayton not loving basketball is distorted, honestly.

From all accounts, he is a hard worker. Remember the story about him earning the golden shirt or something at Arizona practices for several weeks in a row?

And this "no passion for basketball" is coming from a quote where he was explaining how it was hard moving to the US and adapt when he was basically working while everyone else was just fooling around. He then complements this by saying it got so much better when his mom came to Arizona and how he loves it here now. But all people read from that is that he said "basketball is a job".

Total exaggeration.
Image
User avatar
TASTIC
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 18,414
And1: 2,426
Joined: May 17, 2004
Location: New Zealand
   

Re: The #16 and #31 Discussion Thread 

Post#1305 » by TASTIC » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:22 am

I'd rather wait and get Jevon Carter at 31 - not buying Holliday.

Like me some Okobo at 16 if they go PG there, if they go for a wing I like (hope) one of the Bridges' or SGA somehow slips. I don't mind Troy Brown or Keita Bates-Diop but 16 is too early for both obviously.

Wouldn't be anti Okogie at 31 either to be honest. I'm just not sold on Zhaire Smith. I remember thinking Peyton Siva and Guillermo Diaz (waaaay back in the day) were these can't miss athletes but they just couldn't shoot. Smith feels like that sort of guy. And everyone knows my love for KJ McDaniels - another uber athlete who just couldn't shoot...
Moochthemonkey
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,824
And1: 1,582
Joined: Jul 25, 2006
Location: AZ
 

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1306 » by Moochthemonkey » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:23 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:It is insane that these kids are drafted at 19 and expected to produce immediately


yet you've already declared Chriss and Bender duds in your immediate post above...that's some quick hypocrisy lol
AtheJ415
Head Coach
Posts: 6,581
And1: 5,560
Joined: Jul 07, 2014

Re: The #16 and #31 Discussion Thread 

Post#1307 » by AtheJ415 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:26 am

darealjuice wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:Every player you just listed aside from Winslow shot a boatload of 3s. Derrick Williams shot 3 3 pointers a game for god's sake. And the strawman was a direct aspect implicated by your statement that low volume makes your stats irrelevant. They aren't, particularly when your release isn't broken. His actual shot release and rotation is quite good. It's the pre-shot movement of bringing the ball down that is a problem. Thus, it isn't anything like Archie, who had to reinvent his jumper. This has been reiterated in every scouting report that his jumper is uncertain but not broken for those reasons, but hey, why let facts get in the way.


Yeah that's my point.... All of them took double the 3s, if not more, on similar percentage and it meant absolutely nothing for their shot transitioning because the volume was still small. Why take an even smaller volume's percentage at face value?

It's pretty annoying how much you want to put words in my mouth though. I didn't say anything about any statistic he had in college outside of shooting in either post, and a sample size of 40 attempts from 3 is the definition of statistically insignificant. I also never said his jump shot is broken, just that you pointing out a low volume shooting percentage like it means anything is misleading. But hey, who needs reading comprehension?


Their volume was not small. 3 3s a game is high for a big man, particularly a center which is what Williams played at Arizona. If you are going to go that route, then nearly all college stats should be thrown out the door. None of the bigs in this lottery shot more 3s than that a game. Bagley shot 1.8. Jackson shot 2.7. None of them. So I guess we should ignore whatever any of them shot as entirely useless?

It obviously means something. Stats in college aren't meaningless. Sorry. You're just wrong here. Hitting 45% of his 3s means something, even over just 1 attempt a game, as opposed to hitting 5% of his 3s. You are literally sitting here saying they are meaningless and it's beyond dumb. Also, his workouts have shown him hitting at a high clip. His scouting reports don't have an issue with his release. And pointing out a couple examples where that didn't pan out doesn't really prove much. Channing Frye sucked at 3s in college. Marc Gasol sucked at 3s for nearly his entire career until 2 years ago. Jason Kidd had great rotation but could never hit 3s. There is a laundry list of guys in every statistical area who panned out or didn't in an unexpected way.

What we CAN go on is how they played so far, their workouts, and their actual releases to see how we think they will shoot at the next level. All 3 point to him being at least capable/not somebody you can just leave open.
Fo-Real
General Manager
Posts: 9,779
And1: 5,492
Joined: Mar 21, 2009
     

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1308 » by Fo-Real » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:28 am

GOD, get this pick or picks over so Ayton can plan summer league and all this **** can stop.
matt131
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,756
And1: 4,905
Joined: Jun 19, 2014
   

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1309 » by matt131 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:29 am

@wojespn: Luka Doncic has moved to forefront of Atlanta's internal conversation on the third overall pick in Thursday's NBA Draft, league sources tell ESPN....


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
SuperSunsFan
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,771
And1: 1,364
Joined: May 24, 2018

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1310 » by SuperSunsFan » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:30 am

Moochthemonkey wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:It is insane that these kids are drafted at 19 and expected to produce immediately


yet you've already declared Chriss and Bender duds in your immediate post above...that's some quick hypocrisy lol

You are not incorrect, it is unfair to the kids, but this is the standards the league uses to judge young players, even if i am okay with giving them more time before giving up on him but will McD do that? he gave up on Archie even sooner than that.
AtheJ415
Head Coach
Posts: 6,581
And1: 5,560
Joined: Jul 07, 2014

Re: The #16 and #31 Discussion Thread 

Post#1311 » by AtheJ415 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:31 am

NTB wrote:
Read on Twitter


I don't get how anybody could look at the numbers and not rank Smith 1st as a perimeter defender. Mykal Bridges is the only guy I find excusable, because they are just so beyond slanted. Okogie, for instance, who is referenced in the CBS article, is a quarter of an inch taller and has a 1 inch wingspan advantage, which matters, but his DBPM is a 2.0 while Smith's is a whopping 6.4. And it is even more slanted because Okogie was on a worse defensive team, so him being on the court as a good defender allows him to have a better impact on the BPM in theory. Smith had the highest DBPM by a lot.
NTB
Suns Forum News Guru
Posts: 5,796
And1: 6,029
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
Contact:
   

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1312 » by NTB » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:35 am

Read on Twitter
?s=19
carey wrote:It is 2-time, every time.
Moochthemonkey
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,824
And1: 1,582
Joined: Jul 25, 2006
Location: AZ
 

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1313 » by Moochthemonkey » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:35 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
Moochthemonkey wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:It is insane that these kids are drafted at 19 and expected to produce immediately


yet you've already declared Chriss and Bender duds in your immediate post above...that's some quick hypocrisy lol

You are not incorrect, it is unfair to the kids, but this is the standards the league uses to judge young players, even if i am okay with giving them more time before giving up on him but will McD do that? he gave up on Archie even sooner than that.


no he hasn't Archie was given 3 seasons (4 preseasons) with McD. And technically he hasn't given up on him, considering he last played for the Suns D-league team lol.
AtheJ415
Head Coach
Posts: 6,581
And1: 5,560
Joined: Jul 07, 2014

Re: The #16 and #31 Discussion Thread 

Post#1314 » by AtheJ415 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:37 am

Revived wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:
Revived wrote:I think Archie Goodwin might actually be a better comp for than Gerald Green.


Please tell me how this sounds like either of them aside from just being athletic. None are similar players at all.:

"Zhaire Smith came out of nowhere to establish himself as a legitimate NBA prospect over the course of this season thanks to his outlier athleticism and surprising feel for the game. By some advanced metrics, he was one of the 20 or 30 most valuable players in the NCAA, with his tenacious defense and ability to do the little things on offense a key part of Texas Tech’s surprisingly successful season. He faces real questions about his ability to add value on offense without a reliable jump shot or particularly advanced handle, but Smith brings a high floor with his athleticism, feel, and defensive versatility. If his offensive game develops faster than expected, he could emerge as one of the steals of the draft."

Neither of them can do anything offensively besides be athletic. Zhaire’s shooting %s on .5 attempts a game means nothing to me. He isn’t shooting more cause he knows if he did, his shooting % would plummet to like 21%.

He’s a better defender than Archie sure. But both were these athletic freaks who don’t have much of a basketball skill set and are long term projects but have high ceilings.

He should go a little higher in the draft because of his defense being better but not by all that much imo.


He shot over 1 attempt a game, not 0.5. He didn't shoot more because he knows his strengths and weaknesses, so he shot 3s when wide open and he hit them at a great rate. Otherwise he went to the hoop where he dominated.

He is not the long-term prospect you think he is, and he plays nothing like Archie. Archie was good with the ball driving to the hoop. Smith is good off the ball cutting and operating around the FT line. That is because he was a Center at his high school up until this past year. He is very good setting screens, crashing the glass for boards, blocking shots, shooting the passing lanes, defending all around, and more. They are so very dissimilar. Archie was great driving to the hoop at sucked at everything else.
Smith's weakness is his handle. Archie made awful decisions. Smith is a heady player who plays to his strengths and makes solid decisions. Playing within yourself is a good thing. The playing styles and abilities are nothing alike. Also, Archie had an entirely broken jumper. Smith didn't--it is just slow. That presents a big difference.

Look at the player comparison linked below. Smith was a more efficient scorer in literally every category despite having a lower usage rate, and a better defender by a landslide. He had 5 TIMES the OBPM and 6 TIMES the DBPM. The comparison is just in no way accurate at all:

[url]http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=zhaire-smith--archie-goodwin
[/url]
SuperSunsFan
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,771
And1: 1,364
Joined: May 24, 2018

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1315 » by SuperSunsFan » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:38 am

Moochthemonkey wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:
Moochthemonkey wrote:
yet you've already declared Chriss and Bender duds in your immediate post above...that's some quick hypocrisy lol

You are not incorrect, it is unfair to the kids, but this is the standards the league uses to judge young players, even if i am okay with giving them more time before giving up on him but will McD do that? he gave up on Archie even sooner than that.


no he hasn't Archie was given 3 seasons (4 preseasons) with McD. And technically he hasn't given up on him, considering he last played for the Suns D-league team lol.

How about Ennis and Kendall Marshall?
AtheJ415
Head Coach
Posts: 6,581
And1: 5,560
Joined: Jul 07, 2014

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1316 » by AtheJ415 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:41 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
Moochthemonkey wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:It is insane that these kids are drafted at 19 and expected to produce immediately


yet you've already declared Chriss and Bender duds in your immediate post above...that's some quick hypocrisy lol

You are not incorrect, it is unfair to the kids, but this is the standards the league uses to judge young players, even if i am okay with giving them more time before giving up on him but will McD do that? he gave up on Archie even sooner than that.


Umm....no he didn't. Archie was cut much later than 19. And you have repeatedly called Chriss and Bender bad picks.
AtheJ415
Head Coach
Posts: 6,581
And1: 5,560
Joined: Jul 07, 2014

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1317 » by AtheJ415 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:43 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
Moochthemonkey wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:You are not incorrect, it is unfair to the kids, but this is the standards the league uses to judge young players, even if i am okay with giving them more time before giving up on him but will McD do that? he gave up on Archie even sooner than that.


no he hasn't Archie was given 3 seasons (4 preseasons) with McD. And technically he hasn't given up on him, considering he last played for the Suns D-league team lol.

How about Ennis and Kendall Marshall?


Kendall Marshall was a different GM entirely and was a horrible pick that was doomed. Every GM in basketball gave up on him because Lance Blanks was a moron for picking him. Ennis may still have a future as a 3rd stringer somewhere. Wasn't a great pick but it was a pretty late pick and late 1sts don't pan out as often as many fans think. If you get a good backup you have done well. If you get a good starter or a star in the middle 1st to 2nd round you have hit a walk off grand slam.
User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 98,144
And1: 61,002
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1318 » by bwgood77 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:43 am

NTB wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=19


I think they are trying to get a crazy offer for 3, but one where they only have to move down a couple of spots and can still get Trae or maybe someone else.
jredsaz
General Manager
Posts: 8,887
And1: 3,148
Joined: May 25, 2012
         

Re: The #16 and #31 Discussion Thread 

Post#1319 » by jredsaz » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:44 am

Revived wrote:Aaron Holliday feels like a Tyler Ennis type pick all over again. Iirc Ennis was selected at #16 as well.

McD loves his mediocre PGs at #16.


Image
Moochthemonkey
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,824
And1: 1,582
Joined: Jul 25, 2006
Location: AZ
 

Re: The Draft Thread 3: #1 Pick Discussion 

Post#1320 » by Moochthemonkey » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:45 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
Moochthemonkey wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:You are not incorrect, it is unfair to the kids, but this is the standards the league uses to judge young players, even if i am okay with giving them more time before giving up on him but will McD do that? he gave up on Archie even sooner than that.


no he hasn't Archie was given 3 seasons (4 preseasons) with McD. And technically he hasn't given up on him, considering he last played for the Suns D-league team lol.

How about Ennis and Kendall Marshall?


what about them? they are fringe NBA players. Ennis was packaged in the Knight deal which we all virtually agree was a bad trade, and Kendall Marshall was cut/traded after getting outplayed in preseason by....Ish Smith. Ish Smith is still in the league, Kendall Marshall isn't.

Return to Phoenix Suns