Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[zzaj]

Pass on Chandler and Faried. Blazers already passed on Crabbe, so we want something better than Crabbe. I don't know what the Blazers have received in offers but I bet they have turned down better deals than Chandler or Faried.

There is an assumption in the Denver Stiffs post that Denver will have to pay to get off salary off their books. If Denver wanted to package Chandler, a second round pick, and cash for the Blazers to take him and reduce Denver’s cap obligation, it’s hard for me to imagine a better use of the TPE.

TPE trades are pretty restrictive. There’s a small universe of players that fit the slot. You can’t combine it with other players. So you have to find a team either looking to dump salary or hoard a pick that has an expendable piece.

I went through the ESPN trade machine to find possible candidates. I looked primarily at wings. Some of the players on the list only make sense of the team makes a move (e.g., Gordon is only available if Houston thinks it is going to get Lebron).

Wilson Chandler
Kenneth Faried
Kyle Korver ($7M for 3 years)*
Courtney Lee ($12M for 3 years)
Lance Thomas ($6.6M for 3 years)
CJ Miles ($7.9M for 3 years)
Eric Gordon ($12.9M before July 1)**
PJ Tucker ($7.6M for 4 years)**
Channing Frye ($7.4M for 1 year)
Solomon Hill (if healthy, $12.2M for 3 years)
Kyle Singler ($4.6M for 3 years)
Jared Dudley ($10M for 2 years)
TJ Warren ($3.1M for 5 years)
B. Bogdanovic ($9M for 3 years)***
Iman Shumpert ($10M for 2 years)
Garrett Temple ($8M for 2 years)

* Assumes Lebron leaves and Cavs rebuild
** Assumes Lebron goes to Houston or other expensive moves
*** Assumes the Kings management makes irrational decisions

The Crabbe exception is $12.9M. I tried to pick players and teams that might have a legit interest in shedding salary or rebuilding with youth and picks and want to move a vet.

Did I miss anyone?

Thanks for doing the homework...

Of those players, the two that jump out at me are Lee and Bogdanovic. They would be good fits in Stotts' system and would hopefully pour a bucket of cold water on Turner's minutes.

Tucker is a very good defender, but he doesn't fit what the Blazers do on offense. Chandler is far from the player that he once was...injuries have really taken their toll on his quickness and defensive ability. I think a lot of people on here are remembering the quickness and two way play from a couple of years ago.

Everyone else on that list is pretty lateral or poor fits, except for Eric Gordon, whom I don't think is a realistic target. After winning his 6th man award, I expect he'll want a pay raise...

[Waynearchetype]

Bring me Mario Hezonja on taxpayer MLE please.

[JasonStern]

Read on Twitter

[Wickzki]

Read on Twitter

Most accurate draft grades to date.

[grigs]

Their plan is to not sign anyone to long-term deals and to shed contracts that have more than one year remaining. That means Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah might not be Knicks much longer…

Fizdale said he doesn’t necessarily see a starting small forward on the roster, which is another indication that the Knicks will look to trade Lee, who has two years and $25 million left on his contract. Lee is a natural shooting guard.

https://www.newsday.com/amp/sports/basketball/knicks/knicks-seem-to-be-turning-to-talent-development-1.19378453

I’m pleasantly surprised to find out that Lee might actually be available.

[JasonStern]

Their plan is to not sign anyone to long-term deals and to shed contracts that have more than one year remaining. That means Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah might not be Knicks much longer…

Fizdale said he doesn’t necessarily see a starting small forward on the roster, which is another indication that the Knicks will look to trade Lee, who has two years and $25 million left on his contract. Lee is a natural shooting guard.

https://www.newsday.com/amp/sports/basketball/knicks/knicks-seem-to-be-turning-to-talent-development-1.19378453

I’m pleasantly surprised to find out that Lee might actually be available.

problem is that the Blazers don't have $12 million in expiring contracts to ship out in a Lee trade.

[grigs]

problem is that the Blazers don't have $12 million in expiring contracts to ship out in a Lee trade.

The Crabbe TPE is $12.9M. They don’t need to send out anything.

[JasonStern]

problem is that the Blazers don't have $12 million in expiring contracts to ship out in a Lee trade.

The Crabbe TPE is $12.9M. They don’t need to send out anything.

presuming the Blazers retain Nurkić, they'd be looking at a minimum of a $3.25 tax rate. I can't see Courtney Lee being worth $36 million/season to Portland.

[Wizenheimer]

problem is that the Blazers don't have $12 million in expiring contracts to ship out in a Lee trade.

The Crabbe TPE is $12.9M. They don’t need to send out anything.

presuming the Blazers retain Nurkić, they'd be looking at a minimum of a $3.25 tax rate. I can't see Courtney Lee being worth $36 million/season to Portland.

if the starting point is 3.25, then it would be 44M in tax + 12M in salary....56M/year. Even if the starting point was $2.50, it would be 47M in tax and salary. In the unlikely case the starting point was at $1.75 (Blazers only 4.99M over the tax line after signing Nurkic), Lee would cost at least 40M in tax and salary, and that would only be if Davis walked and they'd still have to add at least one player to hit the roster minimum

now Olshey said they'd be aggressive with the TPE's and many are convinced Paul Allen has a stomach for paying gobs of tax for this current team. But the numbers are just intimidating in some ways. And if Davis, Napier and Connaughton are replaced by Lee/Chandler, Baldwin, and Trent, it's very likely Portland will not be a better team next season. PA pays 35-50M in tax next season for a worse team? is it likely?

[Wizenheimer]

I'm not sure it will have any bearing of the Nurkic negotiations, but the 'reporting' is that Denver will re-sign Jokic to a +29M/year max contract.

it's a safe bet that Nurkic, and his agent, will know the general numbers of that deal. Jokic is definitely a better player then Nurkic, but that's only on the offensive side of the ball. Nurkic is much better defensively. I just don't know how willing Nurkic will be to playing for 2-3 times less money then Jokic

[zzaj]

I'm not sure it will have any bearing of the Nurkic negotiations, but the 'reporting' is that Denver will re-sign Jokic to a +29M/year max contract.

it's a safe bet that Nurkic, and his agent, will know the general numbers of that deal. Jokic is definitely a better player then Nurkic, but that's only on the offensive side of the ball. Nurkic is much better defensively. I just don't know how willing Nurkic will be to playing for 2-3 times less money then Jokic

I always get surprised by what contracts are actually doled out...I'm usually way off.

I have a sneaking suspicion that things are going to get really, really wonky with Nurkic. Like, the Blazers are going to sign him for much more than everyone thinks or he's going to end up on the QO because the Blazers aren't willing to pay his big salary plus tax dollars. Both would be unpopular decisions, but my feeling is the former is what is going to actually happen based on Olshey's "we take care of our players" mantra.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm not sure it will have any bearing of the Nurkic negotiations, but the 'reporting' is that Denver will re-sign Jokic to a +29M/year max contract.

it's a safe bet that Nurkic, and his agent, will know the general numbers of that deal. Jokic is definitely a better player then Nurkic, but that's only on the offensive side of the ball. Nurkic is much better defensively. I just don't know how willing Nurkic will be to playing for 2-3 times less money then Jokic

I always get surprised by what contracts are actually doled out...I'm usually way off.

I have a sneaking suspicion that things are going to get really, really wonky with Nurkic. Like, the Blazers are going to sign him for much more than everyone thinks or he's going to end up on the QO because the Blazers aren't willing to pay his big salary plus tax dollars. Both would be unpopular decisions, but my feeling is the former is what is going to actually happen based on Olshey's "we take care of our players" mantra.

actually, that "we take care of our players" thing pre-dates Olshey....it's been Paul Allen's M.O. as owner when it comes to those rookie extensions

on the other hand, the Blazers have never really been in this kind of tax situation for a team that has no hope of contending, so who knows what they will do about Nurkic

but there are a couple of 'wild card' factors at work as well. One is that Nurkic seems to have a thin skin when it comes to his perception of how's he treated by his team. I think that elevates the chances of him playing for the QO and becoming UFA. The other factor is Dame. Obviously, Dame and Nurkic bonded pretty quickly last season and have developed good chemistry on court and off. The Blazer front office just about has to consider how them playing hardball with Nurkic would impact Dame's perception of the Blazers. and his future with the team

Dame wouldn't be the first player to spend years talking about how happy he was with the team he was on, but then do a 180 in the last couple of years of his deal. Durant and Kawhi are just two of the most recent examples

[Norm2953]

I'm not sure it will have any bearing of the Nurkic negotiations, but the 'reporting' is that Denver will re-sign Jokic to a +29M/year max contract.

it's a safe bet that Nurkic, and his agent, will know the general numbers of that deal. Jokic is definitely a better player then Nurkic, but that's only on the offensive side of the ball. Nurkic is much better defensively. I just don't know how willing Nurkic will be to playing for 2-3 times less money then Jokic

I always get surprised by what contracts are actually doled out...I'm usually way off.

I have a sneaking suspicion that things are going to get really, really wonky with Nurkic. Like, the Blazers are going to sign him for much more than everyone thinks or he's going to end up on the QO because the Blazers aren't willing to pay his big salary plus tax dollars. Both would be unpopular decisions, but my feeling is the former is what is going to actually happen based on Olshey's "we take care of our players" mantra.

actually, that "we take care of our players" thing pre-dates Olshey....it's been Paul Allen's M.O. as owner when it comes to those rookie extensions

on the other hand, the Blazers have never really been in this kind of tax situation for a team that has no hope of contending, so who knows what they will do about Nurkic

but there are a couple of 'wild card' factors at work as well. One is that Nurkic seems to have a thin skin when it comes to his perception of how's he treated by his team. I think that elevates the chances of him playing for the QO and becoming UFA. The other factor is Dame. Obviously, Dame and Nurkic bonded pretty quickly last season and have developed good chemistry on court and off. The Blazer front office just about has to consider how them playing hardball with Nurkic would impact Dame's perception of the Blazers. and his future with the team

Dame wouldn't be the first player to spend years talking about how happy he was with the team he was on, but then do a 180 in the last couple of years of his deal. Durant and Kawhi are just two of the most recent examples

I do think Portland will take care of its perceived big 3 if they have to and its a bit unfair to characterize any reluctance
to do so on the count of contending for realistically, the NBA superstar system ensures only 4-5 teams can really contend
for a championship without something like a hard cap. It's going to take some time, perhaps most of the summer to get
a deal done unless Nurk's agent's contention that he already has a deal done is the truth.

I do wonder if the siren's call of the Lebron superteams will end up swallowing up Dame along with the other
all-NBA players not playing for the super teams. If Dame starts to listen to the calls, Portland would be better'
off moving him.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I do wonder if the siren's call of the Lebron superteams will end up swallowing up Dame along with the other
all-NBA players not playing for the super teams. If Dame starts to listen to the calls, Portland would be better'
off moving him.

He also is the only credible voice who could petition other stars to come here to form our own superteam. If he cant do that (and Olshey made it difficult to accomplish), but still wants to join a super-team then yeah, we need to be proactive about that. Losing Damian for nothing would be disheartening.

[Wizenheimer]

I do wonder if the siren's call of the Lebron superteams will end up swallowing up Dame along with the other
all-NBA players not playing for the super teams. If Dame starts to listen to the calls, Portland would be better'
off moving him.

He also is the only credible voice who could petition other stars to come here to form our own superteam. If he cant do that (and Olshey made it difficult to accomplish), but still wants to join a super-team then yeah, we need to be proactive about that. Losing Damian for nothing would be disheartening.

the problem is timing....once the first rumor of Dame wanting out goes public, Portland's leverage collapses.

but I don't know if I could stomach watching Portland if they traded Dame...and kept CJ and Olshey

[Blazinaway]

looks like Melo just opted in, thats about 28mil this yr for OKC - can they afford to pay Paul George?

[Wizenheimer]

looks like Melo just opted in, thats about 28mil this yr for OKC - can they afford to pay Paul George?

well...they would be about 20M over the tax line, and that's assuming PG opts in. If he opts out he'll want a long term deal, probably starting at more money. OKC could easily have a tax bill that pops the 60M bubble....yikes!

Presti's decision to trade Kanter and McDermott for Melo last summer was a really bad one. OKC would have been a better team this season with those two rather then Melo

[The Sebastian Express]

So... this might be unpopular, but I think I'd like to go after Lance Stephenson, or at least consider it. But admittedly I haven't looked at his shooting percentages.

[cucad8]

So... this might be unpopular, but I think I'd like to go after Lance Stephenson, or at least consider it. But admittedly I haven't looked at his shooting percentages.

You don't wanna look...They're ET level bad

[Matt800]

So... this might be unpopular, but I think I'd like to go after Lance Stephenson, or at least consider it. But admittedly I haven't looked at his shooting percentages.

You don't wanna look...They're ET level bad

I think they are significantly worse than Turner's percentages. But just looking briefly, Stephenson's numbers did go up in the playoffs while Turner's went down.