Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[The Sebastian Express]

Oh, nevermind then. That'd be terrible.

[Wizenheimer]

So... this might be unpopular, but I think I'd like to go after Lance Stephenson, or at least consider it. But admittedly I haven't looked at his shooting percentages.

You don't wanna look...They're ET level bad

I think they are significantly worse than Turner's percentages. But just looking briefly, Stephenson's numbers did go up in the playoffs while Turner's went down.

yeah. Lance Stephenson is a bricklayer on par with Turner. Turner shot a little better last season in terms of TS%, but for careers, Lance has been better. For their careers, they are about even in rebounding and assists, and almost dead even in PER. Stephenson has a big edge in winshares/48, box plus/minus, and value over replacement.

I'd rather have Stephenson and his 4.4M salary, but that's because of Turner's faults, not because Lance is any good

[Blazer50]

I want to see Portland make a $12.9M offer to someone at 12:01AM on July 1 to start the clock and put pressure on the incumbent to make a deal before they have their moves completed. My target would be 4 years 5% raises with PO to Julius Randle to see if they would match before seeing if they could land 2 max deals.
(if Randle is not the target- Hopefully Olshey has a another in mind - please not Wilson Chandler)

In a follow up it would be great to see a Melo deal (ET and Mo? which might work if Paul George does opt out - OR some expirings - ET + Meyers Leonard for Terrence Ross + Biyombo).

Resign Ed Davis at 8 to start and Nurkic at 12 to start - (4 year deals). (If Biyombo - one center walks (IE big money offer to Nurkic)
Renounce other contracts -- Shamsports Capulator (which I highly recommend) goes to $139M for 2018-19 but falls under the cap in 2019-20 with expiring Melo & T Ross and others.

Dame / CJ / Melo / Randle / Nurkic with Baldwin (Simon) / T Ross (Trent Jr) / Aminu / Zach / Ed Davis

Melo off the bench would be great in Stott's offense - #1 option on 2nd unit and Aminu would be Defensive prescence with starter - but Carmelo would not buy in to that in Portland!

[Wizenheimer]

I want to see Portland make a $12.9M offer to someone at 12:01AM on July 1 to start the clock and put pressure on the incumbent to make a deal before they have their moves completed. My target would be 4 years 5% raises with PO to Julius Randle to see if they would match before seeing if they could land 2 max deals.
(if Randle is not the target- Hopefully Olshey has a another in mind - please not Wilson Chandler)

once again: the TPE can not be used to sign a player. It can only be used in a trade. The player really has no leverage in a situation like this. It's all up to the teams

In a follow up it would be great to see a Melo deal (ET and Mo? which might work if Paul George does opt out - OR some expirings - ET + Meyers Leonard for Terrence Ross + Biyombo).

what is the point of any of that? There is not one player you've named that makes Portland any better by being added, or any worse by remaining. Deck chairs on the stalled ship. The problem is in the engine room. I guess the Melo trade gets Portland out of the mess a year earlier, but there's no way OKC does that...they are in the same mess as Portland, only their pain ends a year earlier

Resign Ed Davis at 8 to start and Nurkic at 12 to start - (4 year deals). (If Biyombo - one center walks (IE big money offer to Nurkic)
Renounce other contracts -- Shamsports Capulator (which I highly recommend) goes to $139M for 2018-19 but falls under the cap in 2019-20 with expiring Melo & T Ross and others.

I could be wrong about this, but there's no way, IMO, that Nurkic signs for 12M...not a chance. He'll play for his QO before he signs for that little. Davis...maybe for 8 but I doubt it; futher, I have some doubts that Portland even intends to re-sign Davis because of tax. Hope I'm wrong about that

Dame / CJ / Melo / Randle / Nurkic with Baldwin (Simon) / T Ross (Trent Jr) / Aminu / Zach / Ed Davis

Melo off the bench would be great in Stott's offense - #1 option on 2nd unit and Aminu would be Defensive prescence with starter - but Carmelo would not buy in to that in Portland!

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

[Blazer50]

I want to see Portland make a $12.9M offer to someone at 12:01AM on July 1 to start the clock and put pressure on the incumbent to make a deal before they have their moves completed. My target would be 4 years 5% raises with PO to Julius Randle to see if they would match before seeing if they could land 2 max deals.
(if Randle is not the target- Hopefully Olshey has a another in mind - please not Wilson Chandler)

once again: the TPE can not be used to sign a player. It can only be used in a trade. The player really has no leverage in a situation like this. It's all up to the teams

In a follow up it would be great to see a Melo deal (ET and Mo? which might work if Paul George does opt out - OR some expirings - ET + Meyers Leonard for Terrence Ross + Biyombo).

what is the point of any of that? There is not one player you've named that makes Portland any better by being added, or any worse by remaining. Deck chairs on the stalled ship. The problem is in the engine room. I guess the Melo trade gets Portland out of the mess a year earlier, but there's no way OKC does that...they are in the same mess as Portland, only their pain ends a year earlier

Resign Ed Davis at 8 to start and Nurkic at 12 to start - (4 year deals). (If Biyombo - one center walks (IE big money offer to Nurkic)
Renounce other contracts -- Shamsports Capulator (which I highly recommend) goes to $139M for 2018-19 but falls under the cap in 2019-20 with expiring Melo & T Ross and others.

I could be wrong about this, but there's no way, IMO, that Nurkic signs for 12M...not a chance. He'll play for his QO before he signs for that little. Davis...maybe for 8 but I doubt it; futher, I have some doubts that Portland even intends to re-sign Davis because of tax. Hope I'm wrong about that

Dame / CJ / Melo / Randle / Nurkic with Baldwin (Simon) / T Ross (Trent Jr) / Aminu / Zach / Ed Davis

Melo off the bench would be great in Stott's offense - #1 option on 2nd unit and Aminu would be Defensive prescence with starter - but Carmelo would not buy in to that in Portland!

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

FORGIVE ME - I apologize for affronting your absolute insights.

[Blazer50]

I want to see Portland make a $12.9M offer to someone at 12:01AM on July 1 to start the clock and put pressure on the incumbent to make a deal before they have their moves completed. My target would be 4 years 5% raises with PO to Julius Randle to see if they would match before seeing if they could land 2 max deals.
(if Randle is not the target- Hopefully Olshey has a another in mind - please not Wilson Chandler)

once again: the TPE can not be used to sign a player. It can only be used in a trade. The player really has no leverage in a situation like this. It's all up to the teams

In a follow up it would be great to see a Melo deal (ET and Mo? which might work if Paul George does opt out - OR some expirings - ET + Meyers Leonard for Terrence Ross + Biyombo).

what is the point of any of that? There is not one player you've named that makes Portland any better by being added, or any worse by remaining. Deck chairs on the stalled ship. The problem is in the engine room. I guess the Melo trade gets Portland out of the mess a year earlier, but there's no way OKC does that...they are in the same mess as Portland, only their pain ends a year earlier

Resign Ed Davis at 8 to start and Nurkic at 12 to start - (4 year deals). (If Biyombo - one center walks (IE big money offer to Nurkic)
Renounce other contracts -- Shamsports Capulator (which I highly recommend) goes to $139M for 2018-19 but falls under the cap in 2019-20 with expiring Melo & T Ross and others.

I could be wrong about this, but there's no way, IMO, that Nurkic signs for 12M...not a chance. He'll play for his QO before he signs for that little. Davis...maybe for 8 but I doubt it; futher, I have some doubts that Portland even intends to re-sign Davis because of tax. Hope I'm wrong about that

Dame / CJ / Melo / Randle / Nurkic with Baldwin (Simon) / T Ross (Trent Jr) / Aminu / Zach / Ed Davis

Melo off the bench would be great in Stott's offense - #1 option on 2nd unit and Aminu would be Defensive prescence with starter - but Carmelo would not buy in to that in Portland!

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

FORGIVE ME - I apologize for affronting your absolute insights.

[JasonStern]

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

flexibility next offseason, Wizenheimer. Carmelo Anthony's Expiring Contract > Raef LaFrentz's Expiring Contract. plus if Carmelo was traded to Portland, he'd probably be bought out to go ring chase with a contender.

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

I want to see Portland make a $12.9M offer to someone at 12:01AM on July 1 to start the clock and put pressure on the incumbent to make a deal before they have their moves completed. My target would be 4 years 5% raises with PO to Julius Randle to see if they would match before seeing if they could land 2 max deals.
(if Randle is not the target- Hopefully Olshey has a another in mind - please not Wilson Chandler)

once again: the TPE can not be used to sign a player. It can only be used in a trade. The player really has no leverage in a situation like this. It's all up to the teams

In a follow up it would be great to see a Melo deal (ET and Mo? which might work if Paul George does opt out - OR some expirings - ET + Meyers Leonard for Terrence Ross + Biyombo).

what is the point of any of that? There is not one player you've named that makes Portland any better by being added, or any worse by remaining. Deck chairs on the stalled ship. The problem is in the engine room. I guess the Melo trade gets Portland out of the mess a year earlier, but there's no way OKC does that...they are in the same mess as Portland, only their pain ends a year earlier

Resign Ed Davis at 8 to start and Nurkic at 12 to start - (4 year deals). (If Biyombo - one center walks (IE big money offer to Nurkic)
Renounce other contracts -- Shamsports Capulator (which I highly recommend) goes to $139M for 2018-19 but falls under the cap in 2019-20 with expiring Melo & T Ross and others.

I could be wrong about this, but there's no way, IMO, that Nurkic signs for 12M...not a chance. He'll play for his QO before he signs for that little. Davis...maybe for 8 but I doubt it; futher, I have some doubts that Portland even intends to re-sign Davis because of tax. Hope I'm wrong about that

Dame / CJ / Melo / Randle / Nurkic with Baldwin (Simon) / T Ross (Trent Jr) / Aminu / Zach / Ed Davis

Melo off the bench would be great in Stott's offense - #1 option on 2nd unit and Aminu would be Defensive prescence with starter - but Carmelo would not buy in to that in Portland!

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

FORGIVE ME - I apologize for affronting your absolute insights.

wut??....?

you proposed using the TPE to sign Julius Randle. It can't be used for that, and I would not be the only one that would tell you that. And that's not an "insight". You proposed that other teams would trade their 'bad' expiring contracts for worse Blazer 2 year contracts...trades that make no sense for the other teams

and you apparently really want Melo to be a Blazer...a sentiment that will have more detractors around here then just me. And it is an easily arguable position to take that Harkless is better then Melo

were you just looking for agreement with your ideas with no push-back?

[Wizenheimer]

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

flexibility next offseason, Wizenheimer. Carmelo Anthony's Expiring Contract > Raef LaFrentz's Expiring Contract. plus if Carmelo was traded to Portland, he'd probably be bought out to go ring chase with a contender.

sure....but explain to me why OKC would even consider it. They won't trade the 1 year headache of Melo for the two year headache of Turner + Meyers/Harkless. And if Melo is willing to negotiate a buy-out, OKC will want that option...they are in a worse tax situation then Portland and were already a taxpayer this season

[JasonStern]

just say no to Melo...he made OKC a worse team and he'd do the same thing for Portland. Mo Harkless is better then Melo

flexibility next offseason, Wizenheimer. Carmelo Anthony's Expiring Contract > Raef LaFrentz's Expiring Contract. plus if Carmelo was traded to Portland, he'd probably be bought out to go ring chase with a contender.

sure....but explain to me why OKC would even consider it. They won't trade the 1 year headache of Melo for the two year headache of Turner + Meyers/Harkless. And if Melo is willing to negotiate a buy-out, OKC will want that option...they are in a worse tax situation then Portland and were already a taxpayer this season

the only way I could see the Thunder being interested is if Portland took on additional salary to help get them under the luxury tax. and even then, the Thunder are only really in cap space hell if Paul George extends.

Anthony for Harkless and Leonard gives OKC an upgrade in Harkless and saves ~$6.2 million next season. Portland could also use their TPE to absorb Abrines and/or Singler, reducing their tax hit in 2018-19 and (Singler only) 2019-20.

[Wizenheimer]

Anthony for Harkless and Leonard gives OKC an upgrade in Harkless and saves ~$6.2 million next season.

not a legal trade....Blazers would have to add Swanigan or make it Turner instead of one of those guys, and again it bollixes OKC in 2019-20

Portland could also use their TPE to absorb Abrines and/or Singler, reducing their tax hit in 2018-19 and (Singler only) 2019-20.

Portland gets worse next season while adding 60M in salary and tax...yikes!

[Jstock12]

Next evolution of big men

[Wizenheimer]

Sabas looking pretty good at 53; he hasn't ballooned up (much) like a lot of ex players do

[Blazinaway]

Finally got some action:


Adrian Wojnarowski
✔
@wojespn
The Los Angeles Clippers are trading guard Austin Rivers to the Washington Wizards for center Marcin Gortat, league sources tell ESPN.

[d-train]

Sabas looking pretty good at 53; he hasn't ballooned up (much) like a lot of ex players do

He's wearing black and his waist is as wide as his shoulders. And still, he looks better than me.

[Epicurus]

Next evolution of big men

Evolution? Clyde Lovellette (sp) use to do that during games in the 50s and 60s.

[Blazer50]

I want to see Portland make a $12.9M offer to someone at 12:01AM on July 1 to start the clock and put pressure on the incumbent to make a deal before they have their moves completed. My target would be 4 years 5% raises with PO to Julius Randle to see if they would match before seeing if they could land 2 max deals.
(if Randle is not the target- Hopefully Olshey has a another in mind - please not Wilson Chandler)

(Wizenheimer - reply)
once again: the TPE can not be used to sign a player. It can only be used in a trade. The player really has no leverage in a situation like this. It's all up to the teams

According to Larry Coons CBA faq:

How Trade Exceptions Work:

Building on Larry Coon’s excellent work, there are a few key concepts to understand about trade exceptions:

They count against the cap but not the luxury tax – Paralleling other exceptions in the NBA, trade exceptions reduce a team’s salary cap space when on the books. Like the Mid-Level, they can be renounced should a team want that but already-existing trade exceptions can also be used to prop a team over the cap should that be strategically beneficial. (I must mention here that teams functioning under the cap do not receive trade exceptions, another value of using tricks like cap holds to stay over the cap when possible to maximize flexibility.) However, it should also be noted that trade exceptions do not count against the luxury tax.

Teams under the tax line are not pushed over by having them while teams in the tax did not have to pay additional tax on theirs.

They can only be used to acquire players under contract – A team cannot sign a free agent using a trade exception. However, it can be used in a sign-and-trade, though that would require the participation of the player’s previous team and that team being able to sign said player to the agreed upon contract.

Again - I hope Olshey has a target to use the TPE on - even if it requires that the players current team use their cap holds and work with the Blazers by doing a Sign and Trade - so that they can gain a TPE prior to having their asset walk for nothing. (I thought Julius Randle would be a good target - possibly signed for $12.9M)

[grigs]

Again - I hope Olshey has a target to use the TPE on - even if it requires that the players current team use their cap holds and work with the Blazers by doing a Sign and Trade - so that they can gain a TPE prior to having their asset walk for nothing. (I thought Julius Randle would be a good target - possibly signed for $12.9M)

Has this ever happened before? I can't think of a time when a team helped facilitate a free agent to go to a team without cap space by doing a sign and trade into an exception.

The closest I can think of is the Dellavedova, but in that case, Milwaukee had the cap space to sign him outright and the Cavs requested the sign and trade because they wanted to get a TPE they could use. The Cavs paid the Bucks $200k for the privilege.

Sign and trades are rare these days as it is. While this scenario isn't impossible, it seems extremely unlikely.

You'd have to convince a free agent to spend time negotiating with a team that doesn't have cap space. Then you have to convince the team that free agent played for that there was something worth their while to facilitate the trade. If that player is in the same conference, the odds of coming to an agreement go down because if you say no the free agent would have to go East or to a weaker team with cap space.

Finally, Randle is a restricted free agent, right?* That makes the scenario for Randle even more unlikely. The Lakers have all of the leverage.

* Assuming the Lakers extend a qualifying offer which they most assuredly will do because they can always renounce his rights later if they need the cap space.

[Blazinaway]

one guy I hear almost nothing about is UFA Derrick Favors who is still 26 - hard to believe. Over the yrs he has bulked up and now needs to be considered a C at 6'10 and 265. He has had injury issues over the yrs but had a solid season last yr. Wonder where he goes?
also it seems he may come pretty cheap, MLE or perhaps 10 mil per, would anyone consider him as an alternative to Nurk if Nurks wants 18-20 mil per? not suggesting this just considering options

[Wizenheimer]

one guy I hear almost nothing about is UFA Derrick Favors who is still 26 - hard to believe. Over the yrs he has bulked up and now needs to be considered a C at 6'10 and 265. He has had injury issues over the yrs but had a solid season last yr. Wonder where he goes?
also it seems he may come pretty cheap, MLE or perhaps 10 mil per, would anyone consider him as an alternative to Nurk if Nurks wants 18-20 mil per? not suggesting this just considering options

first off, I'd bet a lot that Nurk wants at least 18-20M a year. The question is how malleable the Blazers will be to that. Compared to other young bigs who have been paid, that's actually a bargain but this is an outlier off-season

as for Favors, I have no clue what his salary will be. He is a 2-way player but he has the distinction on not doing anything at a high level. He's efficient on offense but he creates very little of it on his own. He's not a strong rebounder but he's not a bad one either. He has some defensive versatility but he's not a great defender...both Ed Davis and Aminu more then double his DRPM

how much is all that worth? I suppose, if Favors was open to a S&T, Portland could use their TPE on him....that could get him up to 13.5-14.5M/year depending on if it was a 3 or 4 year deal. Then he could be a Ed Davis replacement, but I question how much better then Davis he really is:

http://bkref.com/tiny/qeLyr

but that would require the cooperation of Utah and the Jazz would not do it without some significant incentive IMO. Like maybe a future 1st round pick.