Team Canada Basketball Thread

[Little P]

How does points forward/ Against work in these qualifiers? I remember in the AmeriCup we had a better +/- than Venezuela and the Virgin Islands but we still didn’t advance.

I don't think I've seen anything re what the tiebreakers are for this qualifying tournament specifically, but I suspect they are the same as the general FIBA tiebreaking system:
first head-to-head, then point differential in head-to-head games, then overall point differential.

At AmeriCup 17, it was a 3-way tie among Canada, VI, and Venezuela. All 3 were 1-1 in the head-to-head games, so it went to point differential in those head-to-head games. VI was better than Canada. Canada has lost by a much narrower margin to Argentina than had VI, so our overall point differential was better, but our point differential in the head-to-head games was worse, so VI was awarded 2nd.


On a related note, has anyone seen confirmation of which groups get merged for the second round? Is it A and B in one group and C and D in the other?

And has anyone seen anything re whether all the results from the first round carry through (or do results against the teams that don't progress get dropped)?
(I believe the explanatory video just says something like "results carry through", rather than "all results carry through" or "results except those against the 4th place team carry through", so I think it was a little vague.)

Thanks.

We merge up with the BRA/VEN/Chile group. B and D I believe. All result do carry through to the 2nd round, including the win versus the 4th place team (with point differential) so it helps we beat up on the Bahamas. This had a laughable result in Europe where Slovenia lost a game against Belerus by not trying and freaked the F out afterwards when they found out the results carried over (they honestly didn't know). Good times.

I think we even want to finish second (D2) in this pool (win versus DR but don;t beat them on points) as it gets us Brazil in Sept (in Brazil) with our NBA players. Or would you rather be 1st (D1) and play VEN at home in Sept with our NBA'ers.
Its all here Frumble - have fun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_FIBA_Basketball_World_Cup_qualification_(Americas)

I want us to finish first as I feel like a bit of revenge against Venezuela is needed.

[slothrop8]

We merge up with the BRA/VEN/Chile group. B and D I believe. All result do carry through to the 2nd round, including the win versus the 4th place team (with point differential) so it helps we beat up on the Bahamas. This had a laughable result in Europe where Slovenia lost a game against Belerus by not trying and freaked the F out afterwards when they found out the results carried over (they honestly didn't know). Good times.

I think we even want to finish second (D2) in this pool (win versus DR but don;t beat them on points) as it gets us Brazil in Sept (in Brazil) with our NBA players. Or would you rather be 1st (D1) and play VEN at home in Sept with our NBA'ers.
Its all here Frumble - have fun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_FIBA_Basketball_World_Cup_qualification_(Americas)

Here's my series of opinions on what we should want to happen over the next couple windows. We do merge with B and all results carry. We should be going all out to absolutely demolish the DR and UVI to conclude this window. We should be trying to sit 5-1 with a point differential of close to +150 after this window so that we win the tiebreaker with DR and have a huge +/- cushion for any tiebreakers we get into down the road.

Once the groups merge in September - it's a new 6 team group that we need to finish top 3 in to qualify for the World Cup with all results carrying through, or if we end up 4th - be better than the 4th place team in the other crossover group. For our purposes though, as long as we're sitting 5-1 with the huge point differential when the group starts - we're really only worried about Brazil/Venezuela/Dominican. Any of UVI/Bahamas/Colombia/Chile are going to start the crossover group with either 4 losses, or at the very best Chile might only have 3 and have to play us in September with our NBA guys effectively giving them their 4th. All those countries essentially don't matter to us - we should only care about Brazil/Venezuela/Dominican - and we only need to end up better than 1 of those 3 to not have to worry about being better than the 4th place team in the other crossover group.
As a side note, it's better for us if Brazil beats Venezuela in their game later this current window and sticks Venezuela with their 2nd loss. It's not essential, but it wouldn't hurt.

Ok, assuming NBA participation in September we should be aiming to once again decimate either Brazil/Venezuela at home, and whoever makes it to the crossover group between Chile/Colombia on the road. We are then, if everything goes to plan, sitting 7-1 with a +/- differential of around +200 or better - with the tiebreaker effectively won against DR, a huge lead in winning any tiebreaker against Brazil or Venezuela, and a huge point differential that sets us up to nearly certainly be top 2 in any future 3 team tiebreaker - even if the tiebreaker is in just results within the tied teams. If we're sitting 7-1 and +170 to +200 or so - after our NBA participation in September, it would require an epic collapse and a ton of bad luck not to qualify. We'd have 4 games left without our NBA guys including a home game against Colombia/Chile. If we can manage 1-3 in those games - 8-4 with what our differential is going to be and our head-to-head tiebreaker advantages almost certainly gets us through as Top 3 in our Group. Even if we lost all 4 of those games - which we wouldn't - we'd be sitting 7-5 and should still be better than the other 4th place team in the other crossover group as those teams are all beating up on each other and piling up losses and the likelihood is the USA is going to roll the lesser teams in their crossover group even if they don't care anymore.

So - TL:DR summary - Root for Canada to pound the DR and UVI now, win our current group and get the tiebreaker edge on DR, and then pound whoever we play in September. If we're sitting 7-1 with a +175 or better point differential and head-to-head tiebreaker edges when the NBA guys are done after September - we're pretty much certainly going to the World Cup. It would be nice if Brazil beats Venezuela this window, and we might need to beat either Colombia or Chile at home in February if we lose both games in the December window - but if we win all 4 games with our NBA guys this summer - we're nearly certain to qualify. Root for Canada blowouts all summer long - no mercy, no quarter given.

[mojo13]

Great analysis Slothrop8 - you break it down well, you have me seeing the light.


Getting some good summer time Team Canada analysis over at:
https://canhoopsca.wordpress.com

One interesting tidbit there:
The Canada vs. DR game on Friday night in Toronto at the Ricoh Center will be preceded by Canada’s reserve or B team playing China as part of a doubleheader. We hope to have more on the final 12 man Canadian roster later in the week.

[MavCarter]

So whats wiggins up to this summer?

[Little P]

So whats wiggins up to this summer?

Hanging out with Joey Votto if I had a guess.

[frumble]

Thanks everyone for the info and analysis.

I agree that I would rather finish first and have Ven in September, even if it means a squad with no NBAers for the DR game.


Re the CanHoops mention of a B game against China this Friday, who else do we have in camp? With only five guys to be cut from the 17 we have now (and that assumes Birch and Scrubb and everyone else is still available), I guess this must mean we will have some extra guys around to form the B team. Will be interesting to see who they are.

[bozothepope]

Thanks everyone for the info and analysis.

I agree that I would rather finish first and have Ven in September, even if it means a squad with no NBAers for the DR game.


Re the CanHoops mention of a B game against China this Friday, who else do we have in camp? With only five guys to be cut from the 17 we have now (and that assumes Birch and Scrubb and everyone else is still available), I guess this must mean we will have some extra guys around to form the B team. Will be interesting to see who they are.

Read on Twitter

[bozothepope]

Read on Twitter

[frumble]

Read on Twitter

Thanks.

Anyone seeing anything else re which other players are on the prospect team?

[frumble]

Fivethirtyeight.com releasted its player projections for the 2018/19 season.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

Here are the projections for Canadians (this is a net offensive and defensive plus/minus projection):

Olynyk +2.1
Powell +0.9
Murray +0.4
Lyles -0.3
Birch -0.5

Wiggins -0.8
Joseph -1.2
Brooks -1.2
Thompson -1.3
Ennis -1.4

SGA -1.9
Stauskas -2.1


And for Wins Above Replacement (order differs from above because WAR takes into expected playing time and the fact that replacement value differs by position):

Murray +2.9
Olynyk +2.8
Powell +1.5
Wiggins +1.4
Lyles +0.7

Brooks +0.6
Joseph +0.5
Birch +0.1
Ennis +0.1
SGA -0.1

Stauskas -0.1
Thompson -0.4

[mojo13]

Fivethirtyeight.com releasted its player projections for the 2018/19 season.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

Here are the projections for Canadians (this is a net offensive and defensive plus/minus projection):

Olynyk +2.1
Powell +0.9
Murray +0.4
Lyles -0.3
Birch -0.5

Wiggins -0.8
Joseph -1.2
Brooks -1.2
Thompson -1.3
Ennis -1.4

SGA -1.9
Stauskas -2.1


And for Wins Above Replacement (order differs from above because WAR takes into expected playing time and the fact that replacement value differs by position):

Murray +2.9
Olynyk +2.8
Powell +1.5
Wiggins +1.4
Lyles +0.7

Brooks +0.6
Joseph +0.5
Birch +0.1
Ennis +0.1
SGA -0.1

Stauskas -0.1
Thompson -0.4

A good reminder that Tristan Thompson is really over rated by the masses. He is is less valuable in FIBA ball. Yes he has value (especially if we run to true bigs) but most people think he Is a top 3-5 player for Canada when I am not sure he is in our top 12.

[SharoneWright]

Root for Canada blowouts all summer long - no mercy, no quarter given.

No quarter given! Huzzah!

(Awesome post slothrop8)

[Pooh_Jeter]

Great info everyone.

Regarding the potential B team I saw on twitter that Trasolini is in Toronto and posted this...

Read on Twitter

Is he going to be on the squad? Is he just there to help with the training camp? Is he on the potential B team?

If the B team is prospects you would imagine Nembhard would get a look if he doesn't make the A team. Danilo Djuric said he was going to be at the game, but no word as to whether he would be suiting up for the B team.

Given the next 4 games have NBA players available you have to think our chances at making a run are very good. The overall depth of talent at every level for Canada is improving year by year. Even the "worst case" scenario team doesn't look all that bad.

[Mattd97]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23916865/duke-blue-devils-rj-barrett-leads-nba-draft-prospects-way-too-early-top-25
Includes 3 canadians as the best nba prospect on their top 25 team, barrett, brissett, and NAW

[frumble]

SI with its first 2019 draft preview out today:

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/27/nba-draft-2019-prospect-rankings-big-board

Barrett 1
Shi-ttu 24
Wigginton 25
NAW 44
Dort 46
Brissett NR

NBAdraft.net has it as:
Barrett 1
Shi-ttu 17
NAW 18
Brissett 26
Wigginton 30
Dort NR
http://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft

Bleacher Report (first round only):
Barrett 1
Shi-ttu 17
Brissett 20
Wigginton 28
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2782803-2019-nba-mock-draft-early-1st-round-predictions-and-surprises-for-top-prospects

SB Nation (first round only):
Barrett 2
Brissett 25
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/6/22/17473998/nba-mock-draft-2019-duke-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-cameron-reddish

CBS Sportsline (lottery only):
Barrett 1
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-draft-way-too-early-lottery-predictions-for-next-year-headlined-by-three-duke-freshmen/

[WellYouKnow]

I read that all the teams have to announce their 12 man squad within 24 hours of their first game in this window. So i would imagine we'll see an announcement in the next few hours

[mojo13]

I read that all the teams have to announce their 12 man squad within 24 hours of their first game in this window. So i would imagine we'll see an announcement in the next few hours

Yes...supposedly Triano wants to hold to the last second to keep opponents off balance. I am hearing some interesting tidbits:
-Expect some surprises. Supposedly Tirano is planning for DRs style (small, quick, aggressively crashing the boards) and may pick some guys based on match-ups over pure talent
-Still not sure if Phil Scrubb is around. No confirmed sightings yet (could still be with the Wizards).
-Hanlan likely out with his ankle bothering him.
-Boucher likely out. He's gotten rave reviews but doesn't know the systems and schemes well enough yet. Likely plays with the "B" development team. This why I think guys like Keane or Best will make it - and maybe give an edge to Bennett? I actually like a guys like Keane and/or Best to make it (over say Nembhard) as they will more likely be available in Nov/Feb.
-With Boucher out, and DRs attack style I can see Khem Birch being a game changer vs DR.


All unconfirmed rumor, speculation, innuendo...not long to wait.

[mojo13]

Roster Announced
http://basketball.ca/en/news-article/roster-announced-for-fridays-fiba-basketball-world-cup-2019-amer


R.J. Barrett
Anthony Bennett
Khem Birch
Dillon Brooks
Melvin Ejim
Brady Heslip
Cory Joseph
Andrew Nembhard
Kelly Olynyk
Dwight Powell
Phil Scrubb
Tommy Scrubb

[slothrop8]

Two guys who are straight out of high school is fun - maybe they won't be available in September and so we're getting them some run with the Senior team now. I expect us to blow DR out - let's get it done!

[WellYouKnow]

CoJo/Pscrubb/Nembhard
RJ/heslip
Brooks/Tscrubb
Powell/Ejim/Bennett
Olynyk/Birch

I'd say this is our best lineup ever.

If we qualify and can add atleast a few of Murray/Wiggins/Lyles/Shai/Pangos/Stauskas/Simi or whatever young guys take a leap forward, we should be a really good candidate to medal next year.

Going to the game tomorrow. Super excited to see this group out there