Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[Dat2U]

Ian, kelley and smith for D howard before they buy him out would be wonderful inmo, I hate moving kelley but i think thats the plan.

Just awful. Awful. Awful.

[pcbothwel]

Ian, kelley and smith for D howard before they buy him out would be wonderful inmo, I hate moving kelley but i think thats the plan.

Hard pass. Center market is FLOODED this year. I'd rather shop Oubre with Ian and see what we could get in the way of expirings + asset. I.E. Al Jefferson + TJ Leaf

Sign Howard with Vet Min and hand him starting Job and playoff run... Worse case, we cut/trade him at deadline

Howard is expiring and the flooded center market doesn't matter when we have no money to spend. Howard might sign a MLE with us if he gets bought out, but we still have no money we are deep in the tax and we need to move ian, and brooklyn seems willing to take on deals for young players and picks.

1) If we traded Oubre and Mahinmi we would have money to spend. We are 4.5M over the lux tax. Assuming we find a team near the deadline to take Smith and Cash, we are about 1M under.

2) Howard will sign vet min. no question. He is due 24M this year and any amount he receives after being waived will simply be offset to the Nets.

3) Glad to hear about Brooklyns willingness to take on deals... EG should be sure to give them a call in January about Smith and Cash

[payitforward]

...
Wall / Lawson
Beal / Rivers / Brown
Otto / Sato / Brown
Morris / Scott / Robinson
WCS / Koufos

(I see you're still all in on Mike Scott. )

That's 12 guys. How much do you think Lawson & Scott cost us? We need 2-3 more guys as well -- are you envisioning non-rotation players in those spots? If so, I'd say that team might make the 8th spot in the East. I.e. has a shot to. Depending on how bad Cleveland is, maybe it's a good shot.

Unless Lawson returns to his prime, that is. & Brown is a strong candidate for RoY. Then, of course, the sky's the limit. Well... a low-flying cloud anyway.

do you see WCS remaining a Wizard after this season? You have Robinson in there -- he looks like a part of our future to you? Or just playing out the string on a guy who is extremely cheap?

More generally, is there a plan for this team's future that we're developing via these moves? Or are we just making time go by until the post-Wall rebuild?

[JWizmentality]

I hate these Otto for Boogie deals the media is pumping.

I hope to god Ernie isn't that stupid. Wouldn't trade any of Beal/Otto for him. It better be Ian/someone else and maybe a pick.

[pcbothwel]

...
Wall / Lawson
Beal / Rivers / Brown
Otto / Sato / Brown
Morris / Scott / Robinson
WCS / Koufos

(I see you're still all in on Mike Scott. )

That's 12 guys. How much do you think Lawson & Scott cost us? We need 2-3 more guys as well -- are you envisioning non-rotation players in those spots? If so, I'd say that team might make the 8th spot in the East. I.e. has a shot to. Depending on how bad Cleveland is, maybe it's a good shot.

Unless Lawson returns to his prime, that is. & Brown is a strong candidate for RoY. Then, of course, the sky's the limit. Well... a low-flying cloud anyway.

do you see WCS remaining a Wizard after this season? You have Robinson in there -- he looks like a part of our future to you? Or just playing out the string on a guy who is extremely cheap?

More generally, is there a plan for this team's future that we're developing via these moves? Or are we just making time go by until the post-Wall rebuild?

PIF,
1) My general attitude towards moving forward is this:
- Dont take on long term salary
- Become more versatile. (Gortat trade and drafting Brown is a good start)
- Let our core play 1 more year.
I say this because we really dont need to make a move with Beal or Otto until next year, so we might as well play it out another year. Also, next year there will be more teams with cap space and less FA talent. Someone will overpay for one of them should we fall short again.

2) Assuming the trade above, I think WCS as an RFA might be cheaper than we thought. We wont be a top 10 Center, and the value of those players falls off a cliff. I think we can keep him for MLE type money.

3) Robinson is athletic, active, and can hit an open 3. He is a good deep bench player to help with energy and defense. Anything beyond that is gravy

Im falling more into sign Dwight for the Vet Min camp. Its really the best way to maintain flexibility and be competitive.

[bsilver]

I hate these Otto for Boogie deals the media is pumping.

I hope to god Ernie isn't that stupid. Wouldn't trade any of Beal/Otto for him. It better be Ian/someone else and maybe a pick.

There's no reason for NO to take Mahinmi instead of Porter or Beal. They're not going into the luxury tax for a backup player or players.

[Ruzious]

If the Wiz make a splash, it probably should be for Leonard - even if he is leaning towards leaving next year for LA - and even though we'd still need a center. Ya gotta take a chance on your ability to convince him to stay. And yeah, we'd probably have to use the MLE to sign a free agent center - which will cost more lux tax dollars. At some point, ya gotta take a chance... every 40 years or so.

[payitforward]

...
Wall / Lawson
Beal / Rivers / Brown
Otto / Sato / Brown
Morris / Scott / Robinson
WCS / Koufos

(I see you're still all in on Mike Scott. )

That's 12 guys. How much do you think Lawson & Scott cost us? We need 2-3 more guys as well -- are you envisioning non-rotation players in those spots? If so, I'd say that team might make the 8th spot in the East. I.e. has a shot to. Depending on how bad Cleveland is, maybe it's a good shot.

Unless Lawson returns to his prime, that is. & Brown is a strong candidate for RoY. Then, of course, the sky's the limit. Well... a low-flying cloud anyway.

do you see WCS remaining a Wizard after this season? You have Robinson in there -- he looks like a part of our future to you? Or just playing out the string on a guy who is extremely cheap?

More generally, is there a plan for this team's future that we're developing via these moves? Or are we just making time go by until the post-Wall rebuild?

PIF,
1) My general attitude towards moving forward is this:
- Dont take on long term salary
- Become more versatile. (Gortat trade and drafting Brown is a good start)
- Let our core play 1 more year.
I say this because we really dont need to make a move with Beal or Otto until next year, so we might as well play it out another year. Also, next year there will be more teams with cap space and less FA talent. Someone will overpay for one of them should we fall short again.

2) Assuming the trade above, I think WCS as an RFA might be cheaper than we thought. We wont be a top 10 Center, and the value of those players falls off a cliff. I think we can keep him for MLE type money.

3) Robinson is athletic, active, and can hit an open 3. He is a good deep bench player to help with energy and defense. Anything beyond that is gravy

Im falling more into sign Dwight for the Vet Min camp. Its really the best way to maintain flexibility and be competitive.

We trade for WCS & Koufos & sign Dwight Howard as well?

Sounds like you don't project Robinson as an NBA rotation player (not that you or I or anyone can yet predict the kid confidently)

Sounds like you project a core of Wall, either Beal or Porter, Brown & WCS. To put it another way, you've given up.

That core ain't moving us past Philly or Boston! Or Toronto. I wonder how long it will keep us in front of Indy, if that's even where we are (this year seems unlikely). Fortunately, the Knicks, Bulls & Charlotte have bad FOs, & Brooklyn still has to climb out of the hole King put them in. Cleveland is a huge question mark obviously. Atlanta will take a couple or three years to pass us.

This plan could get us into the playoffs this year & even next. Possibly. To lose in R1. While we try not to be luxury tax repeaters.

That's some great work. If you or I produced like that in our professions we'd have been fired repeatedly. Wow.

[Error Afflalo]

If the Wiz make a splash, it probably should be for Leonard - even if he is leaning towards leaving next year for LA - and even though we'd still need a center. Ya gotta take a chance on your ability to convince him to stay. And yeah, we'd probably have to use the MLE to sign a free agent center - which will cost more lux tax dollars. At some point, ya gotta take a chance... every 40 years or so.

Absolutely. I'll trade anyone on the roster for Kawhi without assurances he'll re-sign. At this point last year, Paul George was a lock to sign with LA. Now he's on the fence. A lot can change in a year. If he re-signs, you have a title contender for the foreseeable future. If he walks, hey, at least you swung for the fences.

It's clear Wall, Beal, and Porter isn't a good enough top 3 to win anything meaningful, yet they'll be combining for $90-100M per year after next season. It's gonna take a drastic roster change (and new GM) for this team to become a contender.

[Error Afflalo]

Read on Twitter

I don't know what to make of this. Is it still in the early stages or is LA reluctant to offer Ingram? If it's the latter, what's the point? I'd jump in and offer Otto, Oubre, an unprotected 2019 1st, and a top 20 protected 2021 1st while also taking Mills or Gasol's deal off their hands. I'd add Sato if they're willing to give up Green instead of Mills or Gasol.

[pcbothwel]

PIF,
I try to have patience with you, but you seem to be a know it all smart mouth that takes everyone's opinion and replies with snarky comment. Its literally every post you have as a retort to someone on this board.

1) No, I said nothing about all 3 of WCS, Koufos and Howard. I mentioned acquiring the first 2 in a trade. At the end of my post, I said that i am instead leaning toward just signing Dwight. Separate scenarios

2) My plan was clear. Give Wall, Beal, and Otto another year as they are all in their prime now. They may break through, in which case having a strong compliment of players (Sato, Rivers, Morris, Dwight, etc.) helps make the postseason interesting.

If they do not, then we at least stay out of the tax and have next summer to move one of the 3.
Next summer also happens to be an offseason that has a lot of Buyers and very little available talent.

3) I couldnt care less about Toronto. They have strong depth, but Derozan and Lowry have already peaked. Boston and Philly are too good and have too many assets to compete with when trading for for stars.

So you have 3 paths, 1) Go all in and trade assets/youth for someone like Boogie, 2) Stay pat and add to the core when necessary, but take on bad salary or jeopardize the future, or 3) Fire sale.

I think 2 is easily the best. Allows us to compete for another year before making a serious decision and keeps us from drastic rebuild (Look at potential package Spurs would get for Leonard). We would also be doing it in a Sellers market... again, look at the FA for next summer:
Melo
Jordan
Klay
Tobias Harris
Kemba Walker

Dumpster Fire, especially when you consider Klay probably resigns with GSW this summer...
"But what about the 2020 FA's that have PO like Lebron and Paul George did this year?"
Sure, lets take a look:
Whiteside (27M)
Barnes (25M)
Love (25M)
Gasol (25M)
Kawhi (20M)
Kyrie (21M)
Butler (19M)

I would assume only Leonard, Kyrie and Butler opt out. Though Kawhi is clearly going to LA or MAYBE Philly and Kyrie is probably staying in Boston or going to NYK.

So without him and Klay, its Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, and a 30 y/o Jimmy Butler who's made it to the 2nd round twice in his career.

Well how many teams will have max/ near max cap space?
Atlanta - About 40M
Boston - Depends on Kyrie, but Ill assume no
Brooklyn - Yup, 2 Max slots
Charlotte - No
Bulls - Yup, at least 1 max slot
Cavs - Nope
Mavs - Yup, at least 1 max slot
Nuggets - Yup, 1 max slot
Pistons - Nope
GSW - Nope
Houston - Nope
Pacers - Yup, at least 1 max slot...probably 2
Clippers - Yup, 2 Max Slots
Lakers - Lets assume not
Grizzlies - Lets assume not
Heat - Nope
Bucks - If Middleton opts out... 1 max slot
TWolves - ehhh about 20M
Pelicans - Yup, 30M (Depending on Cousins)
Knicks - Yup (Hence Kyrie)
Thunder - ehhh, 20M
Magic - Yup (Even if they resign Gordon)
76ers - Yup (Though hard to gauge with current Class still pending)
Suns - Yup
Blazers - Nope
Kings - Yup, probably 2 slots
Spurs - Assuming Kawhi is traded... Yup
Raptors - Nope
Jazz - Yup
Wiz - Nope

So lets recap PIF. I have 16 teams with at least 30M in cap space (More than half the league), with at least 3 having 60M in cap space!!!!
BTW, I took into account rookie cap holds... so no worries.
Compare that to about 7 this year... combined with a weaker FA class, and I see a slightly more tame version of 2016

Beal or Porter will look like Gold next summer. With 2016 still fresh in every GM's mind, people will lineup to trade assets for them instead giving Aminu or Vucevic 20M.

[Ruzious]

Read on Twitter

I don't know what to make of this. Is it still in the early stages or is LA reluctant to offer Ingram? If it's the latter, what's the point? I'd jump in and offer Otto, Oubre, an unprotected 2019 1st, and a top 20 protected 2021 1st while also taking Mills or Gasol's deal off their hands. I'd add Sato if they're willing to give up Green instead of Mills or Gasol.

Supposedly the Lakers offered just Ingram and a 1st. I'm on the side to trade Beal rather than Otto, because he seems to have more trade value, and I think Otto's a little better and harder to replace - seems like there was a metric ton of shooting guards picked in the draft. Beal and Oubre seems like a good offer to me.

Btw, the free agent center I'd go for first is Montrezl Harrell. He's an RFA, so maybe it'll take something to make the Clippers pass on matching an offer (something other than Gortat being there).

[rl25g]

Read on Twitter

I don't know what to make of this. Is it still in the early stages or is LA reluctant to offer Ingram? If it's the latter, what's the point? I'd jump in and offer Otto, Oubre, an unprotected 2019 1st, and a top 20 protected 2021 1st while also taking Mills or Gasol's deal off their hands. I'd add Sato if they're willing to give up Green instead of Mills or Gasol.

Id honestly offer Beal, Sato and Oubre for Leonard and Green

[dckingsfan]

Read on Twitter

I don't know what to make of this. Is it still in the early stages or is LA reluctant to offer Ingram? If it's the latter, what's the point? I'd jump in and offer Otto, Oubre, an unprotected 2019 1st, and a top 20 protected 2021 1st while also taking Mills or Gasol's deal off their hands. I'd add Sato if they're willing to give up Green instead of Mills or Gasol.

Id honestly offer Beal, Sato and Oubre for Leonard and Green

Heck yes, try to get as far as you could this year. And then figure out how to trade Wall next off-season. A glorious way to start the rebuild!

[Error Afflalo]

Read on Twitter

I don't know what to make of this. Is it still in the early stages or is LA reluctant to offer Ingram? If it's the latter, what's the point? I'd jump in and offer Otto, Oubre, an unprotected 2019 1st, and a top 20 protected 2021 1st while also taking Mills or Gasol's deal off their hands. I'd add Sato if they're willing to give up Green instead of Mills or Gasol.

Id honestly offer Beal, Sato and Oubre for Leonard and Green

I'd do that deal in a second.

These Kawhi proposals make me sad we don't have a real shot at getting him. According to reports, SA wants to stay competitive. A Beal deal would allow them to do that.

[dangermouse]

If Wizards dont sign Dwight for the minimum....

Let me introduce you to the mindblowing concept of Dwight Howard, Starting Centre for the Guangdong Southern Tigers. Or maybe the Sydney Kings.

[payitforward]

PIF,
I try to have patience with you, but you seem to be a know it all smart mouth that takes everyone's opinion and replies with snarky comment. Its literally every post you have as a retort to someone on this board.

1) No, I said nothing about all 3 of WCS, Koufos and Howard.

Thanks for your patience; I'm sure it's required -- I mean that sincerely.

I also have patience with you, though you don't require as much as I'm sure I do (some, though...).

In this case, however, I think you jumped the gun. Didn't I put a smiley next to my little quip about all those Centers? I think so.

IOW, about that I was joking. I didn't think you meant to acquire all of them! Apologies for being unclear!

[payitforward]

...2) My plan was clear. Give Wall, Beal, and Otto another year as they are all in their prime now. They may break through, in which case having a strong compliment of players (Sato, Rivers, Morris, Dwight, etc.) helps make the postseason interesting.

If they do not, then we at least stay out of the tax and have next summer to move one of the 3.
Next summer also happens to be an offseason that has a lot of Buyers and very little available talent.

3) I couldnt care less about Toronto. They have strong depth, but Derozan and Lowry have already peaked. Boston and Philly are too good and have too many assets to compete with when trading for for stars.

So you have 3 paths, 1) Go all in and trade assets/youth for someone like Boogie, 2) Stay pat and add to the core when necessary, but take on bad salary or jeopardize the future, or 3) Fire sale.

I think 2 is easily the best. Allows us to compete for another year before making a serious decision and keeps us from drastic rebuild (Look at potential package Spurs would get for Leonard). We would also be doing it in a Sellers market... again, look at the FA for next summer:
Melo
Jordan
Klay
Tobias Harris
Kemba Walker

Dumpster Fire, especially when you consider Klay probably resigns with GSW this summer...
"But what about the 2020 FA's that have PO like Lebron and Paul George did this year?"
Sure, lets take a look:
Whiteside (27M)
Barnes (25M)
Love (25M)
Gasol (25M)
Kawhi (20M)
Kyrie (21M)
Butler (19M)

I would assume only Leonard, Kyrie and Butler opt out. Though Kawhi is clearly going to LA or MAYBE Philly and Kyrie is probably staying in Boston or going to NYK.

So without him and Klay, its Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, and a 30 y/o Jimmy Butler who's made it to the 2nd round twice in his career.

Well how many teams will have max/ near max cap space?
Atlanta - About 40M
Boston - Depends on Kyrie, but Ill assume no
Brooklyn - Yup, 2 Max slots
Charlotte - No
Bulls - Yup, at least 1 max slot
Cavs - Nope
Mavs - Yup, at least 1 max slot
Nuggets - Yup, 1 max slot
Pistons - Nope
GSW - Nope
Houston - Nope
Pacers - Yup, at least 1 max slot...probably 2
Clippers - Yup, 2 Max Slots
Lakers - Lets assume not
Grizzlies - Lets assume not
Heat - Nope
Bucks - If Middleton opts out... 1 max slot
TWolves - ehhh about 20M
Pelicans - Yup, 30M (Depending on Cousins)
Knicks - Yup (Hence Kyrie)
Thunder - ehhh, 20M
Magic - Yup (Even if they resign Gordon)
76ers - Yup (Though hard to gauge with current Class still pending)
Suns - Yup
Blazers - Nope
Kings - Yup, probably 2 slots
Spurs - Assuming Kawhi is traded... Yup
Raptors - Nope
Jazz - Yup
Wiz - Nope

So lets recap PIF. I have 16 teams with at least 30M in cap space (More than half the league), with at least 3 having 60M in cap space!!!!
BTW, I took into account rookie cap holds... so no worries.
Compare that to about 7 this year... combined with a weaker FA class, and I see a slightly more tame version of 2016

Beal or Porter will look like Gold next summer. With 2016 still fresh in every GM's mind, people will lineup to trade assets for them instead giving Aminu or Vucevic 20M.

All of this makes perfect sense to me. I'm trying to figure out what I wrote to make you think I want to hold a fire sale, or any kind of sale, right now.

If I read you right, you are saying lets do what we can to enjoy what success we are able to achieve given our assets -- & then lets try to sell high rather than low when we must sell -- & that there will be a better market for that next year than there is this year.

Perhaps you were reacting to my phrase "given up." What I meant was given up on contending for a title with this generation of the Wizards (i.e. a core based around John Wall). That, it seems to me, is no more than common sense; I certainly didn't mean it as a critical observation.

At the same time, of course, we do want to give ourselves as much opportunity as possible to do as well as possible. Life is too short to "tank."

[pcbothwel]

All of this makes perfect sense to me. I'm trying to figure out what I wrote to make you think I want to hold a fire sale, or any kind of sale, right now.

If I read you right, you are saying lets do what we can to enjoy what success we are able to achieve given our assets -- & then lets try to sell high rather than low when we must sell -- & that there will be a better market for that next year than there is this year.

Perhaps you were reacting to my phrase "given up." What I meant was given up on contending for a title with this generation of the Wizards (i.e. a core based around John Wall). That, it seems to me, is no more than common sense; I certainly didn't mean it as a critical observation.

At the same time, of course, we do want to give ourselves as much opportunity as possible to do as well as possible. Life is too short to "tank."

Thanks for the apology, text doesnt really convey humor/sarcasm that well.

And yes, none of our max contracts are expiring so we really arent up against the fence on this one.
Like I said, next year is going to be a blood bath in FA. Its why I think we should move Oubre because I think he easily gets 4/75M as an offer sheet...
The more I think about it, we also should not be in a rush to move Mahinmi. i think there will be a ton of cap space next year and teams will be looking how to use it. dumping him should be quite simple assuming we add cash.
So let me walk through my own rationale and put it into action in regards to competing this year and getting under tax:
1) No point in trading big 3, so scratch Wall, Beal, and Otto
2) No reason to dump Mahinmi if it requires an overpay
3) No reason to send out pick

So. That leaves Oubre & Sato as positive assets, Rivers & Morris as neutral pieces that are rotation worthy, and Smith/Meeks as useless filler.
... Follow me here...

Asset:
- I love Oubre's ceiling, but i think Sato/Brown/Robinson could alleviate his loss... He also "Looks the part" which means he'll get paid too much..LOL = Add Oubre to trade package

Neutral:
- We just traded for Rivers, so I doubt we move immediately if its not for a blockbuster. He's also the right age for this group and makes a little too much to expect value for.
- Morris will probably be better next year because of health, but I think his low salary and skill set as potential small ball 5 will interest some teams... = Add Morris to trade package

Filler:
- Meeks makes too little and his value is too low. If he stays healthy, history shows he is lights out shooter and draws some fouls. Lets hope he becomes neutral value by deadline and then move.... KEEP for now
- Smith makes decent chunk, but not too much to kill trade package value = Add Smith to Package

So now we have a package of expiring contracts that include Oubre, Morris, and Smith (17.2M).
So how much salary can we take back?
- Well, we are 4.5M over the tax, so that means 12.7M... but we need to fill out the roster.
- Also, assuming a team is over the cap (but under the tax) then they would need to send out 12.2M to make it work
(Though some financial gymnastics could be done in making it a two part trade... but lets not dive down that rabbit hole right now)

So lets just call it 12M for now and anything over we MIGHT be able to accommodate if we dump Meeks by the deadline.
Thoughts?
So who could use Morris and Oubre??? How about...

Orlando for Augustin, Isaac, and Birch (13.6M)
- Sign Vet min PF (I.E. Tolliver, LRMAM, Mike Scott)
Wall / DJ
Beal /Rivers
Otto / Sato / Brown
LRMAM / Isaac
Mahinmi / Birch

or

Indiana for Joseph, Leaf, and Anigbogu (11.7M)
Wall / Joseph
Beal /Rivers
Otto / Sato / Brown
LRMAM / Leaf
Mahinmi / Anigbogu

Both get us long term asset and cut salary... We could still add Vet mins

[prime1time]

Wizards management is so frustrating. We finally have 3 good players to build around and we overpay all 3 of them. The Wizards cannot compete paying Wall, Beal and Porter the amount of money we are. Either we treadmill until they become free agents or we trade 1 or 2 and do a soft rebuild. I scour the internet on a weekly basis hoping for news of a John Wall trade rumor but I can never find one. I'd take a young pg like Trae Young or Collin Sexton and 2 first round draft picks in exchange for Wall. At least that way we can move to an "Everyone eats" offense full time.