The Western Conference

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Let's compare prospective all-star teams, shall we?

Western Conference:
Steph Curry - Russell Westbrook - Chris Paul
James Harden - Donovan Mitchell - Klay Thompson
Kevin Durant - Kawhi Leonard - Jimmy Butler
Lebron James - Anthony Davis - Paul George
Nikola Jokic - Karl Anthony-Towns - Rudy Gobert

Not included: Damian friggin' Lillard

Eastern Conference:
Kyrie Irving - Ben Simmons - John Wall
Victor Oladipo - DeMar DeRozan - Bradley Beal
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Jayson Tatum - Gordon Hayward
Kristaps Porzingis - Blake Griffin - Kevin Love
Joel Embiid - Al Horford - Andre friggin' Drummond

Warriors, Rockets and Lakers are the best teams on paper if LA also gets Kawhi. Thunder, Jazz, Nuggets, Wolves, Pelicans, Blazers are all competing for the remaining five spots, with San Antonio, Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Suns also trying to crack that group somehow. The Clippers have talent, too, and then you have just the Kings lingering at the bottom (but they're trying to win, since their pick is forfeit... to one of the only two decent teams in the east!)

I think the Celtics would make the WC playoffs... though probably not as a home team! After that, would the Sixers make the WC playoffs? Would Toronto? Then there's just a bunch of mediocre squads in Milwaukee, Indiana... Washington? Detroit?? Miami?? Cleveland?? Friggin' Orlando??? Chicago?!?!? Would these teams even have a prayer in the west?

It's like we've turned into an A League and a B League!!!

HOW THE **** ARE WE SUPPOSED TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS NEXT YEAR?!? WHEN WILL THIS END??!??!??

[bwgood77]

If Celtics are healthy, they would easily make home court in the west I think. They are young and only going to get better. They should be better this year unless injuries hurt them.

Yeah, we could finish like 5 games out of the playoffs yet still in 12th or 13th place in the west...silver lining is a pretty good draft pick...probably top 10 odds with better lottery odds. So I'm glad we still have our pick...I don't think we should trade any of our own for a few years even though we should be improving rapidly. For one, we will need a nice rookie contract when our max hits, but with better lottery odds, we could land another high pick.

[Moochthemonkey]

HOW THE **** ARE WE SUPPOSED TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS NEXT YEAR?!? WHEN WILL THIS END??!??!??

If all goes to plan in '20

[Hesh]

HOW THE **** ARE WE SUPPOSED TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS NEXT YEAR?!? WHEN WILL THIS END??!??!??

Well we took Houston down a notch and chris paul gets closer to 40

[darealjuice]

Golden State, Houston, and LeLakers with Kawhi will likely be running the West for the next few years. We'll need to break into that next tier of Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Portland, San Antonio, and Utah to make the playoffs, which I don't see as impossible.

We have youth at every position, so all of their individual improvement can lead to a big team improvement. Devin Booker will solidify himself as a top shooting guard in the league next year, but it's up to Ayton, JJ, Bridges, Bender, and Chriss to make their own jump. Not to mention our point guard spot is still up in the air with Knight and Okobo being the only ones on the roster. I think 30-35 wins is a reasonable expectation next year, but with our young talent we can be in business if things go right (i.e. Ayton being a dominant center early, JJ taking a step forward from the 2nd half of last season, our point guard position exceeding its already low expectations, Bender and Chriss playing positive minutes, etc).

[TheLogician]

We have to accept the fact that it will be tough sledding for a few more years. Not to say we can't make the playoffs because I sincerely believe we aren't far off from the 5-8 seeds. Next season, I just want to see us compete night in and night out. The tanking is finally behind us and we can start building a winning culture again. Things will work themselves out at the top and our window will fly open once our core players enter their prime.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

The two things we have going for us are Ayton and wing depth. Shouldn't have any crappy minutes at the wing positions next season (and yes that means you, Troy Daniels). Ayton will be such an enormous improvement on Chandler/Len. If his college scoring translates, his and Devin's offense should be able to keep us in a lot of games.

We have the talent to leapfrog a lot of teams, but we would need a lot of things to go right to make the playoffs this year. If Ayton hits, we just need to make sure the players around him aren't missing shots, turning it over, blowing coverages. Guys like that can't be on the court, or we'll be toast.

[LukasBMW]

2018-2019 top 4 final standings

WEST
-Warriors 82-0
-Rockets 55-27
-OKC 50-32
-Jazz 50-32

EAST
-Celtics 62-20
-Philly 55-27
-Bucks 50-32
-Indiana 50-32

[spanishninja]

Golden State, Houston, and LeLakers with Kawhi will likely be running the West for the next few years. We'll need to break into that next tier of Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Portland, San Antonio, and Utah to make the playoffs, which I don't see as impossible.

We have youth at every position, so all of their individual improvement can lead to a big team improvement. Devin Booker will solidify himself as a top shooting guard in the league next year, but it's up to Ayton, JJ, Bridges, Bender, and Chriss to make their own jump. Not to mention our point guard spot is still up in the air with Knight and Okobo being the only ones on the roster. I think 30-35 wins is a reasonable expectation next year, but with our young talent we can be in business if things go right (i.e. Ayton being a dominant center early, JJ taking a step forward from the 2nd half of last season, our point guard position exceeding its already low expectations, Bender and Chriss playing positive minutes, etc).

our immediate goal hasn't changed -- get as many wins as possible this year in order to snag at least one max FA for next season. It's kind of good that we aren't signing any FAs yet right now because frankly this first year would be a waste anyway.

[kennydorglas]

Change the playoffs seeding. This is **** ridiculous.

[No-Man]

The East;

NBA Finals contenders;

Boston
Toronto
Philadelphia

PO locks

Milwaukee
Indiana
Washington

Battling it out for the PO

Miami
Detroit
Charlotte

tank fest

Brooklyn
Chicago
Orlando

New York
Cleveland
Atlanta

All Star candidates;

Irving, Wall, Walker, Lowry, Dragic
Oladipo, DeRozan, Beal
Hayward, Middleton, Tatum
Giannis, Simmons, Griffin
Embiid, Horford, Drummond

Love likely gets shipped and Porzingis might not play until January

The West;

West;

NBA Finals contenders;

GS
Houston

PO locks;

OKC
the LeBroners
almost Utah

battling it out for the PO

Denver
Minnesota
San Antonio
New Orleans
Portland

Naivety Town (gotta battle hard for finishing 11th)

Dallas
Phoenix
Memphis
Clippers

Bottom of the barrel

Sacramento

All Star candidates;

Curry, Paul, Westbrook, Lillard, Conley
Harden, Thompson, Butler, Booker, Mitchell, McCollum, Holiday
James, Durant, George, Leonard
Green, Aldridge
Davis, Jokic, Towns, Gobert, Capela

[BobbieL]

We have to accept the fact that it will be tough sledding for a few more years. Not to say we can't make the playoffs because I sincerely believe we aren't far off from the 5-8 seeds. Next season, I just want to see us compete night in and night out. The tanking is finally behind us and we can start building a winning culture again. Things will work themselves out at the top and our window will fly open once our core players enter their prime.

As have been said - Lebron affected the Rockets and OKC. Looking at other teams: the Nuggets really have their core in place and once Millsap is gone and Murray signed long term - that is a team two years ahead of the Suns. Blazers are pretty stuck with their payroll and have to figure out Nurkic. TWolves - same as Nuggets but Butler is a FA.

Suns need to start winning games being competitive. If they don't make playoffs - but are winning - tahts important. Playing games in March - even if they are say , 4 games out on March 1 - that is a good place after the last few years. Cap space will be huge in 2019.

[Calvin Klein]

I wouldn't worry much. If we improve and we are actually a good team, stuff will happen.

There's always teams that underachieve, injuries, trades, teams that implode, etc.

Just because you have individual talent/stars, doesn't mean your team will actually be good. We should know this by now. It's always been like that in the NBA.

[Veggamattic]

This needs to be re-assessed next year when this team is a year more mature and the Suns have 2 more 1st rounders and a load of cap space. Especially if Brandon Knight is playing at a high level, as I think he is very capable of doing if given the chance to start with talent around him.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

TL;DR.

I've taken a closer look at the WC rosters and came up with some guesstimate team standings that surprised me in several respects. This is what I got:

1 Golden State 71-11
2 Utah 68-14
3 Houston 56-26
4 Minnesota 53-29
5 LA Lakers 52-30
6 Phoenix 49-33
7 Oklahoma City 48-34
8-T San Antonio 44-38
8-T Memphis 44-38
10 Denver 43-39
11 LA Clippers 39-43
12 Portland 38-44
13 Dallas 35-47
14 New Orleans 34-48
15 Sacramento 28-54

I know, these are some pretty strange results, and it exposes the inherent silliness of the method, which I admit entirely, and which follows: I subjectively ranked the players of each team at each position, assigning a number 1-15, and then I did the same for the bench overall and multiplied the latter by two. I converted that number into losses using a ratio based on the 82 game schedule, and gave every team in the conference a 3 game bonus to reflect the difference in win percentages between the two conference. And voila! My absurd results.

What I really got out of this waste-of-time exercise was some perspective on how I view various players around the league. Below are my positional and bench rankings.

Point Guards
1 Curry
2 Lillard
3 Westbrook
4 Paul
5 Conley
6 Rubio
7 J. Murray
8 Smith
9 Teague
10 Ball
11 D. Murray
12 Knight
13 Beverley
14 Fox
15 Payton

Some weird calls, I know. Lillard over Westbrook and Paul is questionable; I never realized what I esteem I hold Lillard in. Paul would be higher if not for the certainty of missed time. Smith over Teague might be premature. Knight over Beverley and Fox is also questionable, and may reflect a bias. I just think Beverley's persistent injuries cast greater doubt on his value, and I still haven't seen enough from Fox to know that he'll be very useful.

Shooting Guards
1 Harden
2 Thompson
3 Mitchell
4 Booker
5 DeRozan
6 Doncic
7 McCollum
8 G. Harris
9 Wiggins
10 J. Holiday
11 Roberson
12 Bogdanovic
13 Caldwell-Pope
14 A. Bradley
15 Temple

I was kinda shocked to see where Avery Bradley fit on my list. The SG position is just so crazy good in the WC. Some would go Mitchell over Thompson; many would argue that Doncic, Wiggins and Booker are too high because of how the stack up defensively. But if you want to know why Phoenix's record is so good in my projections, Booker's high score here is a big reason. It's what we're all counting on, in fact. And if he gets to this level this season, I think we'll make the playoffs.

Small Forwards
1 Durant
2 Butler
3 George
4 Ingles
5 Ingram
6 Barnes
7 Warren
8 Anderson
9 Gay
10 Barton
11 Justin Jackson
12 Harkless
13 Gallinari
14 Anthony
15 E. Moore

This is the reason the Rockets are as low as they are in the standings, and really, 11-14 could really go in any order - I just happen to be relatively high on Justin Jackson, and I penalize Gallinari's health and Anthony's struggles last season. I'm projecting Ingram to do better than some would think. But anyone who doesn't think Joe Ingles belongs at that #4 spot doesn't watch enough basketball. Do people think Warren should be lower than this? I could see him getting to that 5 spot this season if he improves from three.

Power Forwards

1 L. James
2 D. Green
3 Aldridge
4 T. Harris
5 Jaren Jackson
6 Mirotic
7 Favors
8 Millsap
9 Ariza
10 Tucker
11 Gibson
12 Bagley
13 Jerami Grant
14 Aminu
15 Nowitzki

Shows how much I like Tobias and Jaren Jackson. Millsap could arguably go as high as 4 - and this low ranking is a big reason why I have the Nuggets missing the playoffs. If I thought of TJ as my starting 4, I'd probably have him #6 on this list. Man, I think Jaren Jackson's going to wreck it.

Centers

1 Davis
2 Gobert
3 Jokic
4 Towns
5 Adams
6 Capela
7 Ayton
8 D. Jordan
9 Cousins
10 Nurkic
11 M. Gasol
12 Gortat
13 McGee
14 P. Gasol
15 Cauley-Stein

How controversial is this high estimate for Ayton? It seems to me that he'll average something like 15 and 10 on 60% shooting from day 1, and that he won't be a turnover machine or a negative on defense. I know Jordan's defensive prowess is renown, but his blocks are way down and he's a guy whose offense consists of dunking, and dude can't hit his free throws. Cousins is this low 100% because of injury; if not for injury, I'd have him at 4 between Jokic and Towns (good lord this conference is stacked!). Pau is this low only because of age and how little he plays as a result. Marc is this low because of his abysmal field goal percentage last season, and I'll need to see it to believe that he's not on the decline.

Benches

1 Utah
2 Golden State
3 LA Lakers
4 Houston
5 LA Clippers
6 Minnesota
7 Phoenix
8 Memphis
9 San Antonio
10 Sacramento
11 Oklahoma City
12 Portland
13 Denver
14 New Orleans
15 Dallas

This one's tougher, because you're judging collections of players, and benches can change. And here you see the reason why my projections have us and the Clippers so high in the standings. Specifically, NOP, POR and DEN have really weak benches. NOP has a really good bench player in Randle, but their wing and guard spots are disturbingly thin. The only reason I have them higher than Dallas is because I assume they'll add a player or two. Otherwise, Barea, Matthews, Onuaku and Powell win out.

I really struggled to decide who between Portland and Denver is worse. Portland downgraded from Shabazz Napier to Seth Curry and didn't add much aside from the improvement we should see from Zach Collins this year. I rated Denver this low based on the assumption that IT won't be that effective for them this year, but if he returns to form, Denver should make the playoffs. Other than IT, their only proven bench guys are Lyles and Plumlee. I ultimately took Portland ahead of Denver because I'm a big Collins fan and think Turner remains a quality rotation player.

OKC has Schroder, which is a big plus, but I have a hard time believing in Noel or Patterson up front. They have a couple young wings who can provide defense in Ferguson and Luwawu, and Abrines can shoot, but overall, that's not an impressive crew. Sacramento's bench I think will be a bit more solid, with all of Hield, Giles, Ferrell, Labissiere and perhaps Randolph, Koufos or Shumpert being able to provide solid minutes. San Antonio's bench is okay, with Bertans, Forbes, Mills, Ginobili (still), Bellineli (when healthy) and Poeltl, and Pop somehow always able to get a bit more out of his players. I have Memphis ahead of this group because I like the balance with JaMychal Green and the Brookses, Selden and Casspi are solid, and I think Jevon Carter will be a good backup right out the gate. Is Parsons done?

I have us ahead of all these teams in large part because, regardless how JJ plays, Bridges should be able to give us good minutes right away. I like Harrison's D a ton, and I think it's reasonable to think Dragan will shoot close to 40% from three this season. We also have the better of Holmes and Chriss taking the remaining minutes in the front court, and Reed should be able to give us better minutes this season than last. If JJ takes a step, he probably wouldn't be on the bench for too long, but replace his seat with Warren's and your bench is better than seventh best in the west, I think.

The reason I have a team like Minnesota ahead of us is my lack of clarity with JJ - if JJ's the player we saw at the end of last season, we should be higher on this list. Otherwise, I love Tyus Jones, Dieng and Tolliver are solid, and I think Keita Bades-Diop could have an immediate positive impact. Rose and Okogie could also provide useful minutes.

The Clippers bench is even better, primarily because of Lou Williams and to a lesser extent Montrezl Harrell. They have depth from the young guards they drafted, and depth at the wing with Mbah a Moute and Wes Johnson. Placing Houston's bench above the Clips' is a tough call, but it's based upon a similar idea - Gordon and Anderson being such dangerous weapons (Green too). Houston's not very deep, but if Melton can come in and provide good minutes right off the bat, they'll be set in that regard.

The Lakers bench I have third best, because they have a great weapon in Kuzma, Hart is solid, I think they'll get the best remaining versions of Rondo, Stephenson and Beasley, and even their late draft picks look like they'll be able to contribute. Golden State remains close to the top because they're so well balanced, with Livingston, McCaw, Iguodala, Looney, Bell, and now Jerebko joining them. I have Utah atop the list because I love Royce O'Neale, Crowder was great for them last year, Udoh is solid, and Exum, Neto and Burks in the backcourt is more than solid.

So you do the stupid math, and there it is: my stupid predictions. Any change in the rankings is worth roughly 2/3 of a win, so you can see how easy it would be to alter the results entirely just by having a few justifiable disagreements with my silly rankings. If you've read this far, thanks for indulging me. Just had to get something like this down on paper. The offseason drives me bonkers, obviously.

GO SUNS!

[bwgood77]

TL;DR.

I've taken a closer look at the WC rosters and came up with some guesstimate team standings that surprised me in several respects. This is what I got:

1 Golden State 71-11
2 Utah 68-14
3 Houston 56-26
4 Minnesota 53-29
5 LA Lakers 52-30
6 Phoenix 49-33
7 Oklahoma City 48-34
8-T San Antonio 44-38
8-T Memphis 44-38
10 Denver 43-39
11 LA Clippers 39-43
12 Portland 38-44
13 Dallas 35-47
14 New Orleans 34-48
15 Sacramento 28-54

I know, these are some pretty strange results, and it exposes the inherent silliness of the method, which I admit entirely, and which follows: I subjectively ranked the players of each team at each position, assigning a number 1-15, and then I did the same for the bench overall and multiplied the latter by two. I converted that number into losses using a ratio based on the 82 game schedule, and gave every team in the conference a 3 game bonus to reflect the difference in win percentages between the two conference. And voila! My absurd results.

Wow, the Jazz five wins short of the all time record? 6 wins better than the best Suns team ever? I really like the Jazz and think there is a good chance they finish 2nd in the west, though D'Antoni showed with the Suns he can make do with some key losses of players while with the Suns.

I don't think GS wins more than 65 or so unless they are healthy and don't rest anyone all year. And I'll be very surprised if Utah wins 60.

I've mentioned before, but I think Denver finished top 5 or 6. OKC should be better if Roberson is healthy being one of, if not the best wing defender in the league and removing Carmelo.

Memphis and LAL seem a little high to me, even though I think Memphis will be better than most project. SA is a WC and many think they drop off but Kawhi didn't even barely play last year and they added DeRozan so it seems they should be a little better if healthy, despite Pelton thinking he hurts them due to his lack of defense.

And I thought I was being pretty optimistic with the Suns at 34 wins, so 49 would be unbelievable, even though I believe in Koko, but the lack of PG I think will be tough to get by since our other ball players turn it over so much. Booker was 7th in turnovers per game last year, and had the worst ast/to ratio of non bigs in the top 8, by quite a long shot. Then Jackson and Knight turn it over a lot as well.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

TL;DR.

I've taken a closer look at the WC rosters and came up with some guesstimate team standings that surprised me in several respects. This is what I got:

1 Golden State 71-11
2 Utah 68-14
3 Houston 56-26
4 Minnesota 53-29
5 LA Lakers 52-30
6 Phoenix 49-33
7 Oklahoma City 48-34
8-T San Antonio 44-38
8-T Memphis 44-38
10 Denver 43-39
11 LA Clippers 39-43
12 Portland 38-44
13 Dallas 35-47
14 New Orleans 34-48
15 Sacramento 28-54

I know, these are some pretty strange results, and it exposes the inherent silliness of the method, which I admit entirely, and which follows: I subjectively ranked the players of each team at each position, assigning a number 1-15, and then I did the same for the bench overall and multiplied the latter by two. I converted that number into losses using a ratio based on the 82 game schedule, and gave every team in the conference a 3 game bonus to reflect the difference in win percentages between the two conference. And voila! My absurd results.

Wow, the Jazz five wins short of the all time record? 6 wins better than the best Suns team ever? I really like the Jazz and think there is a good chance they finish 2nd in the west, though D'Antoni showed with the Suns he can make do with some key losses of players while with the Suns.

I don't think GS wins more than 65 or so unless they are healthy and don't rest anyone all year. And I'll be very surprised if Utah wins 60.

I've mentioned before, but I think Denver finished top 5 or 6. OKC should be better if Roberson is healthy being one of, if not the best wing defender in the league and removing Carmelo.

Memphis and LAL seem a little high to me, even though I think Memphis will be better than most project. SA is a WC and many think they drop off but Kawhi didn't even barely play last year and they added DeRozan so it seems they should be a little better if healthy, despite Pelton thinking he hurts them due to his lack of defense.

And I thought I was being pretty optimistic with the Suns at 34 wins, so 49 would be unbelievable, even though I believe in Koko, but the lack of PG I think will be tough to get by since our other ball players turn it over so much. Booker was 7th in turnovers per game last year, and had the worst ast/to ratio of non bigs in the top 8, by quite a long shot. Then Jackson and Knight turn it over a lot as well.

I get all that. Don't disagree one bit re Jazz and GS; I don't expect them to win as much as my "model" suggests.

My problem with Denver is the bench. I don't think I have any of their starters rated lower than others would, except perhaps Millsap. Barton and Murray are arguably too high in my rankings. Jokic arguably should be ahead of Gobert, but those changes are basically a wash; the bench at the guard and wing spots is the issue.

OKC is basically where they were last season - which makes sense, since you're replacing Anthony with Jerami Grant (or some other sub-starter) in that starting lineup. I originally had MEM missing the playoffs because I had their bench rated lower. But upon reconsideration, I was tempted to put their bench ahead of ours. JaMychal Green is a great player to bring off the bench, and they have a lot of quality guards. No backup 5, though (unless you're a believer in Ivan Rabb). They're hurt by the lack of a starting quality 2, unless Wayne Selden continues to outperform expectations. LAL I have rated so highly because I expect Ingram to have a great season and because they have a deep bench.

SAS lost Danny Green, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker from last year's squad as well, remember. DeRozan's an upgrade at the 2, but that's two starters lost (not counting Kawhi Leonard), which means moving Gay into the starting lineup. Plus, Pau gets a year older, which could be significant at this late stage of his career. So you can see why they might take a step back.

Looking at the standings this way, you can see why the Suns might be able to catapult up the standings this season. Booker and Warren are better, and Knight is probably an upgrade over Ulis, but the big differences are at the 4, the 5, and the bench. Our bench is all young players, all of whom should improve, plus we added Shaq, Holmes, Reed and Bridges, and moved Bender/Chriss to the bench, losing only Dudley. If you had last year's starters on these rankings instead of Ariza and Ayton, we might be sitting at #15 and #15 at both those spots (in addition to #15 at PG with Ulis). Those are big differences, which, in addition to the coaching change, really could set us up for a huge boost relative to last season. The Lakers and Grizzlies are the only other teams who have made such dramatic improvements to their starting lineups.

[bwgood77]

I get all that. Don't disagree one bit re Jazz and GS; I don't expect them to win as much as my "model" suggests.

My problem with Denver is the bench. I don't think I have any of their starters rated lower than others would, except perhaps Millsap. Barton and Murray are arguably too high in my rankings. Jokic arguably should be ahead of Gobert, but those changes are basically a wash; the bench at the guard and wing spots is the issue.

OKC is basically where they were last season - which makes sense, since you're replacing Anthony with Jerami Grant (or some other sub-starter) in that starting lineup. I originally had MEM missing the playoffs because I had their bench rated lower. But upon reconsideration, I was tempted to put their bench ahead of ours. JaMychal Green is a great player to bring off the bench, and they have a lot of quality guards. No backup 5, though (unless you're a believer in Ivan Rabb). They're hurt by the lack of a starting quality 2, unless Wayne Selden continues to outperform expectations. LAL I have rated so highly because I expect Ingram to have a great season and because they have a deep bench.

SAS lost Danny Green, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker from last year's squad as well, remember. DeRozan's an upgrade at the 2, but that's two starters lost (not counting Kawhi Leonard), which means moving Gay into the starting lineup. Plus, Pau gets a year older, which could be significant at this late stage of his career. So you can see why they might take a step back.

Looking at the standings this way, you can see why the Suns might be able to catapult up the standings this season. Booker and Warren are better, and Knight is probably an upgrade over Ulis, but the big differences are at the 4, the 5, and the bench. Our bench is all young players, all of whom should improve, plus we added Shaq, Holmes, Reed and Bridges, and moved Bender/Chriss to the bench, losing only Dudley. If you had last year's starters on these rankings instead of Ariza and Ayton, we might be sitting at #15 and #15 at both those spots (in addition to #15 at PG with Ulis). Those are big differences, which, in addition to the coaching change, really could set us up for a huge boost relative to last season. The Lakers and Grizzlies are the only other teams who have made such dramatic improvements to their starting lineups.

As I mentioned before, I guess I like Denver's bench better than you do. I think they have a solid backup frontcourt in Mason Plumlee and Trey Lyles, who shot over 38% from 3 last year. And then I guess I like Juan Hernangomez better than you, who can back up at the 3. He was over a 40% 3 pt shooter as a rookie before being injured or had mononucleosis most all of last year, so I expect him to bounce back.

Malik Beasley could take a step in year 3 as well considering they finally are not so deep at the SG spot. He shot over 34% from 3.

They are pretty thin at guard, but as we talked about, IT may really help there, and if he can get back to just 75% of form, he will be a stud and 6th man of the year candidate. He obviously won't be lacking for motivation playing for $2 million when not long ago he was expecting a big contract, so he'll be out to prove himself.

Their biggest key will be health though, and if a starting guard or Jokic goes down that will really hurt, but if healthy, they have a solid 8 or 9 or possibly 10 man rotation.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I get all that. Don't disagree one bit re Jazz and GS; I don't expect them to win as much as my "model" suggests.

My problem with Denver is the bench. I don't think I have any of their starters rated lower than others would, except perhaps Millsap. Barton and Murray are arguably too high in my rankings. Jokic arguably should be ahead of Gobert, but those changes are basically a wash; the bench at the guard and wing spots is the issue.

OKC is basically where they were last season - which makes sense, since you're replacing Anthony with Jerami Grant (or some other sub-starter) in that starting lineup. I originally had MEM missing the playoffs because I had their bench rated lower. But upon reconsideration, I was tempted to put their bench ahead of ours. JaMychal Green is a great player to bring off the bench, and they have a lot of quality guards. No backup 5, though (unless you're a believer in Ivan Rabb). They're hurt by the lack of a starting quality 2, unless Wayne Selden continues to outperform expectations. LAL I have rated so highly because I expect Ingram to have a great season and because they have a deep bench.

SAS lost Danny Green, Kyle Anderson and Tony Parker from last year's squad as well, remember. DeRozan's an upgrade at the 2, but that's two starters lost (not counting Kawhi Leonard), which means moving Gay into the starting lineup. Plus, Pau gets a year older, which could be significant at this late stage of his career. So you can see why they might take a step back.

Looking at the standings this way, you can see why the Suns might be able to catapult up the standings this season. Booker and Warren are better, and Knight is probably an upgrade over Ulis, but the big differences are at the 4, the 5, and the bench. Our bench is all young players, all of whom should improve, plus we added Shaq, Holmes, Reed and Bridges, and moved Bender/Chriss to the bench, losing only Dudley. If you had last year's starters on these rankings instead of Ariza and Ayton, we might be sitting at #15 and #15 at both those spots (in addition to #15 at PG with Ulis). Those are big differences, which, in addition to the coaching change, really could set us up for a huge boost relative to last season. The Lakers and Grizzlies are the only other teams who have made such dramatic improvements to their starting lineups.

As I mentioned before, I guess I like Denver's bench better than you do. I think they have a solid backup frontcourt in Mason Plumlee and Trey Lyles, who shot over 38% from 3 last year. And then I guess I like Juan Hernangomez better than you, who can back up at the 3. He was over a 40% 3 pt shooter as a rookie before being injured or had mononucleosis most all of last year, so I expect him to bounce back.

Malik Beasley could take a step in year 3 as well considering they finally are not so deep at the SG spot. He shot over 34% from 3.

They are pretty thin at guard, but as we talked about, IT may really help there, and if he can get back to just 75% of form, he will be a stud and 6th man of the year candidate. He obviously won't be lacking for motivation playing for $2 million when not long ago he was expecting a big contract, so he'll be out to prove himself.

Their biggest key will be health though, and if a starting guard or Jokic goes down that will really hurt, but if healthy, they have a solid 8 or 9 or possibly 10 man rotation.

I mentioned that I like Lyles a lot, and I like Hernangomez - as a 4, though. Not so sure about him as a 3. Depending on Malik Beasley for valuable minutes is a lot like us having Reed as our primary backup at the 2/3 - but we don't. I agree that if IT returns close to form, he'll be a huge boost and that would likely be enough to move them solidly into the playoffs. I also think you have to question how good Millsap will be this season.

Would you take Denver's bench over any of the teams listed above them in my rankings? As I said, I struggled with Portland vs. Denver. If we're relying on IT, we're speculating. Barton was their 6th man last year, but they lost 30 so-so minutes from Wilson Chandler without replacing him. We could also speculate about Michael Porter, but once again, I firmly believe he's best suited for the 4 position.

[bwgood77]

I mentioned that I like Lyles a lot, and I like Hernangomez - as a 4, though. Not so sure about him as a 3. Depending on Malik Beasley for valuable minutes is a lot like us having Reed as our primary backup at the 2/3 - but we don't. I agree that if IT returns close to form, he'll be a huge boost and that would likely be enough to move them solidly into the playoffs. I also think you have to question how good Millsap will be this season.

Would you take Denver's bench over any of the teams listed above them in my rankings? As I said, I struggled with Portland vs. Denver. If we're relying on IT, we're speculating. Barton was their 6th man last year, but they lost 30 so-so minutes from Wilson Chandler without replacing him. We could also speculate about Michael Porter, but once again, I firmly believe he's best suited for the 4 position.

I don't know where I'd place Denver's bench. I don't really want to go through all of them, but looking at Utah's I like it about as much, and you have them at #1. A couple of others didn't particularly look better, and then there were a couple I checked that looked a little bit better.

They played pretty well even without Millsap last year. Again, I like their frontcourt depth quite a bit, probably moreso than most teams including ours, and their PG depth is obviously better. I think Monte Morris could be pretty decent too in his sophomore year. He didn't play much last year as a rookie since they had Mudiay and Devin Harris, but was really good in college.