Axolotl wrote:The main scenarios for LaVine's next season:
A. He improves, but is still not contributing to winning basketball. In this scenario he is not worth keeping long term.
B. He improves, and is no longer net negative. Worth keeping, but on a tradeable contract.
C. He improves significantly, and contributes to winning basketball. Obviously worth a major contract.
The problem is, we don't know which scenario will play out, or even how likely the scenarios are. This makes a prove it -contract appealing, if he can't be persuaded to a - from the team perspective - cautious longer term contract.
Comparing LaVine's situation to Felicio's limps. Felicio got paid on potential only. LaVine has NBA-years, and while his trajectory was upwards, the angle was not steep. Will he break out? No one knows.
What worries me is that LaVine's issue looks to be bbiq, and I'm not sure how much can be done about that. He may have had a green light to go for it and shoot away, but that isn't a green light to ignore teammates in a better position to score or to take heavily contested shots early on the shot clock.
So I worry. I worry that he gets paid as a player he would be if... "If" is just two letters, but makes a huge difference in the real world.
His actual contract number is not that significant other than how it affects the cap. If he continues as a low-impact player, he shouldnt be on this team at any number at all. If he makes his potential that some feel he has, he would have outperformed his contract (< 70 million for 4 years). The key is, he is a huge question mark. How to balance that deal against a new max player contract for another guy is the focus I care about. His exact number is probably not that important. I can't even call it. Tell me where to limit his deal so that we can add #1 talent. That amount cannot be exceeded.