Wiretap: Bulls Hope To Re-Sign Zach LaVine At $14M-$16M

[TheGOATRises007]

A question I would like to ask Bulls fans is this. If you had a chance to sign another wing player with injury history like Jabari Parker or LaVine, who would you sign? Why? Me, personally, I prefer Jabari Parker. He is a more efficient player with a higher basketball IQ and he just turned 23.

Neither is the best answer.

If I had to pick, I'll go Lavine(I think his ceiling is higher w/e it is), but I'm not giving him a long term deal. 1+1(team option) is my preferred deal.

[BearsBulls78]

With all this talk about overpaying and not overpaying, where is the line? How much money vs performance constitutes overpaying and when is that determined? Can it even be determined before the contract is over?

Something to think about.


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No one seems to be able to articulate that. It's all feelings.

Nailed it. This is why I've stayed out of this thread... no matter what Zach signs for with us (assuming he stays here) it's not going to impact our ability to throw money at top-tier free agents moving forward. The rest is just fluff and over-zealous evaluations of a dude coming off a torn ACL that played in only 24 games for us last season. I'm willing to bet the vast majority watched very little -- if any -- of LaVine in Minnesota or UCLA. They're just box score/stat line scouting and attempting to provide analysis based on the numbers they see.

Someone earlier cited his vertical leap and chided that LaVine never had a 10 rebound game. I mean, really?

The rebound thing is part of the context that usually guys who secure big deals either score with great efficiency (he doesn’t) or they have multiple skills. LaVine doesn’t rebound, doesn’t distribute, and doesn’t defend. In the context of everything that’s important.

And it still doesn’t take into effect that his best shooting percentages came when he wasn’t the number one guy.


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[BearsBulls78]

A question I would like to ask Bulls fans is this. If you had a chance to sign another wing player with injury history like Jabari Parker or LaVine, who would you sign? Why? Me, personally, I prefer Jabari Parker. He is a more efficient player with a higher basketball IQ and he just turned 23.

LaVine and it’s not close. Jabari has had 2 acl surgeries and is potentially worse in defense.


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[RitchieD]

A question I would like to ask Bulls fans is this. If you had a chance to sign another wing player with injury history like Jabari Parker or LaVine, who would you sign? Why? Me, personally, I prefer Jabari Parker. He is a more efficient player with a higher basketball IQ and he just turned 23.

If I had to pick between the two I would choose Jabari Parker.


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[TheSchmaranz]

I'm still not understanding the Jabari stuff. Has he proven he can play the 3? If that's not the case, I dunno why bringing him in would make sense.

[BullsFTW]

Definitely LaVine. He looks to have attained all of his athleticism.

[WindyCityBorn]

No one seems to be able to articulate that. It's all feelings.

Nailed it. This is why I've stayed out of this thread... no matter what Zach signs for with us (assuming he stays here) it's not going to impact our ability to throw money at top-tier free agents moving forward. The rest is just fluff and over-zealous evaluations of a dude coming off a torn ACL that played in only 24 games for us last season. I'm willing to bet the vast majority watched very little -- if any -- of LaVine in Minnesota or UCLA. They're just box score/stat line scouting and attempting to provide analysis based on the numbers they see.

Someone earlier cited his vertical leap and chided that LaVine never had a 10 rebound game. I mean, really?

The rebound thing is part of the context that usually guys who secure big deals either score with great efficiency (he doesn’t) or they have multiple skills. LaVine doesn’t rebound, doesn’t distribute, and doesn’t defend. In the context of everything that’s important.

And it still doesn’t take into effect that his best shooting percentages came when he wasn’t the number one guy.


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It also doesn't take into effect that his percentages this season came in 24 games while rehabbing a torn ACL. I don't think he will be the first option here and he isn't being offered first option money. 4 years/$80 million which seems to be he will get from an offer sheet is not first option money. That's like a 3rd option deal.

[patagonia]

Offer sheets can happen tomorrow so if the Kings are going to make an offer I'm guessing we'll find out soon.

[SensiBull]

With all this talk about overpaying and not overpaying, where is the line? How much money vs performance constitutes overpaying and when is that determined? Can it even be determined before the contract is over?

Something to think about.


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I think the answer is not strictly tied to performance, and I think that's what the confusion is. It's also tied to risk and fitness for purpose.

- I made the analogy that Zach is like a rear spoiler on a pickup truck. No one is saying that the sheet metal and the paint job is worthless, or calling the machinist who made it 'lazy.' We're saying it doesn't fit the context or purpose of what the rest of the combined parts are designed to do.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/assists-per-fgm

- Also, there is the 'responsible risk' scenario. I think everyone in here can 'stomach' a 1+1. It's the point above that makes even that seem like a waste of cash, but, there is this portion of the fan base that makes it seem like GarPax becomes like some sort of cad, asking for women's hands in marriage without any intention of marrying them at all.

It's like, "Nevermind whether our vows mean anything or whether we should spend our lives together as marriage implies. I bought a dress, dammit, and, by God I'm going to wear it...the actual marriage ceremony is just a formality.... you're already mine," and some of the fan base has the shotguns out, spitting tobacco into spittoons.

So, when people start throwing around numbers like 4 years/64 million, unless that's HEAVILY front loaded (which, again, given the spoiler-on-the-pickup analogy doesn't seem owed here) starts to seem to ignore both the bust-potential and injury potential of Lavine.

It's one of those scenarios where buying insurance doesn't mean you are accusing yourself of being a bad driver. It's just the responsible thing to do, even if you don't plan on having an accident, as if anybody does.

Every year, some team is frozen out of free agency because of some sexy option that presented itself a few years earlier, and the team has to tread water a few seasons whlle they wait for that contract to come off the books. Joakim Noah in NY, Chandler Parsons in Memphis, etc.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2781927-ranking-the-worst-contracts-in-nba-free-agency-history#slide12

[Truebiscuit]

No one seems to be able to articulate that. It's all feelings.

Nailed it. This is why I've stayed out of this thread... no matter what Zach signs for with us (assuming he stays here) it's not going to impact our ability to throw money at top-tier free agents moving forward. The rest is just fluff and over-zealous evaluations of a dude coming off a torn ACL that played in only 24 games for us last season. I'm willing to bet the vast majority watched very little -- if any -- of LaVine in Minnesota or UCLA. They're just box score/stat line scouting and attempting to provide analysis based on the numbers they see.

Someone earlier cited his vertical leap and chided that LaVine never had a 10 rebound game. I mean, really?

The rebound thing is part of the context that usually guys who secure big deals either score with great efficiency (he doesn’t) or they have multiple skills. LaVine doesn’t rebound, doesn’t distribute, and doesn’t defend. In the context of everything that’s important.

And it still doesn’t take into effect that his best shooting percentages came when he wasn’t the number one guy.


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Devin Booker is about to sign a 5 year/$158M deal. His career numbers: 19.8/4.5 reb/4.7 ast/0.9 stl/0.3 blocks through age 21. His teams won 23, 24, and 21 games those three years. 14.8 PER.

Zach LaVine through age 21: 13.7/2.9 reb/3.2 ast/0.8 stl/0.2 blocks. His teams won 16, 29, and 31 games those three years. 13.4 PER.

So, we are talking 6.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.1 steals and 0.1 blocks. I'm sorry, all this consternation over what he gets paid is just flat out dumb in my opinion.

[League Circles]

With all this talk about overpaying and not overpaying, where is the line? How much money vs performance constitutes overpaying and when is that determined? Can it even be determined before the contract is over?

Something to think about.


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No one seems to be able to articulate that. It's all feelings.

Nailed it. This is why I've stayed out of this thread... no matter what Zach signs for with us (assuming he stays here) it's not going to impact our ability to throw money at top-tier free agents moving forward. The rest is just fluff and over-zealous evaluations of a dude coming off a torn ACL that played in only 24 games for us last season. I'm willing to bet the vast majority watched very little -- if any -- of LaVine in Minnesota or UCLA. They're just box score/stat line scouting and attempting to provide analysis based on the numbers they see.

Someone earlier cited his vertical leap and chided that LaVine never had a 10 rebound game. I mean, really?

Because math doesn't exist?

[League Circles]

Nailed it. This is why I've stayed out of this thread... no matter what Zach signs for with us (assuming he stays here) it's not going to impact our ability to throw money at top-tier free agents moving forward. The rest is just fluff and over-zealous evaluations of a dude coming off a torn ACL that played in only 24 games for us last season. I'm willing to bet the vast majority watched very little -- if any -- of LaVine in Minnesota or UCLA. They're just box score/stat line scouting and attempting to provide analysis based on the numbers they see.

Someone earlier cited his vertical leap and chided that LaVine never had a 10 rebound game. I mean, really?

The rebound thing is part of the context that usually guys who secure big deals either score with great efficiency (he doesn’t) or they have multiple skills. LaVine doesn’t rebound, doesn’t distribute, and doesn’t defend. In the context of everything that’s important.

And it still doesn’t take into effect that his best shooting percentages came when he wasn’t the number one guy.


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Devin Booker is about to sign a 5 year/$158M deal. His career numbers: 19.8/4.5 reb/4.7 ast/0.9 stl/0.3 blocks through age 21. His teams won 23, 24, and 21 games those three years. 14.8 PER.

Zach LaVine through age 21: 13.7/2.9 reb/3.2 ast/0.8 stl/0.2 blocks. His teams won 16, 29, and 31 games those three years. 13.4 PER.

So, we are talking 6.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.1 steals and 0.1 blocks. I'm sorry, all this consternation over what he gets paid is just flat out dumb in my opinion.

It's insane to pay Booker what he's getting too IMO. These guys just aren't that good. Their play are primary reasons that their teams have been terrible IMO.

[bad knees]

I'm still not understanding the Jabari stuff. Has he proven he can play the 3? If that's not the case, I dunno why bringing him in would make sense.

He played high school basketball in Chicago. For some people, that’s reason enough to be interested. You see it with Okafor and others as well.


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[TheSchmaranz]

I'm still not understanding the Jabari stuff. Has he proven he can play the 3? If that's not the case, I dunno why bringing him in would make sense.

He played high school basketball in Chicago. For some people, that’s reason enough to be interested. You see it with Okafor and others as well.


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I'm not nuts though, right? He hasn't shown he's capable of playing thay wing spot on both ends.

[BearsBulls78]

Nailed it. This is why I've stayed out of this thread... no matter what Zach signs for with us (assuming he stays here) it's not going to impact our ability to throw money at top-tier free agents moving forward. The rest is just fluff and over-zealous evaluations of a dude coming off a torn ACL that played in only 24 games for us last season. I'm willing to bet the vast majority watched very little -- if any -- of LaVine in Minnesota or UCLA. They're just box score/stat line scouting and attempting to provide analysis based on the numbers they see.

Someone earlier cited his vertical leap and chided that LaVine never had a 10 rebound game. I mean, really?

The rebound thing is part of the context that usually guys who secure big deals either score with great efficiency (he doesn’t) or they have multiple skills. LaVine doesn’t rebound, doesn’t distribute, and doesn’t defend. In the context of everything that’s important.

And it still doesn’t take into effect that his best shooting percentages came when he wasn’t the number one guy.


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Devin Booker is about to sign a 5 year/$158M deal. His career numbers: 19.8/4.5 reb/4.7 ast/0.9 stl/0.3 blocks through age 21. His teams won 23, 24, and 21 games those three years. 14.8 PER.

Zach LaVine through age 21: 13.7/2.9 reb/3.2 ast/0.8 stl/0.2 blocks. His teams won 16, 29, and 31 games those three years. 13.4 PER.

So, we are talking 6.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.1 steals and 0.1 blocks. I'm sorry, all this consternation over what he gets paid is just flat out dumb in my opinion.

But again, your premise is that Devin Booker isn't overpaid and so LaVine is then worth the value. To clarify my overall premise:

1. Booker isn't worth 30m/season
2. Using Bookers value and the stat comparisons for Booker and LaVine don't justify a higher salary to me
3. LaVine has a sort of plus skill in scoring/athleticism, but has minus skills on defense, rebounding, and overall feel for the game.
4. Bulls are better off continuing to stockpile draftpicks makes more sense then overspending to be average in the East

Using the Suns as a barometer for deals is a mistake since they've not done well in drafting and certainly haven't signed smart either.

[IcemanGervin]

I really don't understand letting this kid walk during a rebuild process when his only evaluation was half a season(actually 24 games ) coming back from an ACL injury. And to do what with the savings when he walks? Because none of those free agents next season are coming to this team. Those are all guys looking at winning now and teaming up. History says it will not be in Chicago.

Maybe once the rebuild has hit full force we get big ticket free agents, but not in year 3. It took Philly and Boston a long time to accumulate their assets and build those rosters. It's almost arrogant to think the Bulls are going to be that successful so soon.

[bad knees]

I'm still not understanding the Jabari stuff. Has he proven he can play the 3? If that's not the case, I dunno why bringing him in would make sense.

He played high school basketball in Chicago. For some people, that’s reason enough to be interested. You see it with Okafor and others as well.


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I'm not nuts though, right? He hasn't shown he's capable of playing thay wing spot on both ends.

Correct. He’s a 4. Not a fit for the Bulls. Only reason he gets discussed is that he played high school basketball at Simeon.


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[fleet]

IMO that's a highly flawed comparison because post-injury Rose was the product of multiple injuries, including not just the ACL but also 2 meniscus tears. Not to mention that psychologically Rose seems to have been in a far different place post-injury (as evidence by the inordinate time to return versus Zach who seems to have been if anything held back by the team rather than sitting himself out).

What is your comparison of post ACL injury guys that you would like to use?

My reply is in the sense that people seem to ignore the fact that after returning from his ACL tear that Zach LaVine has been simply god awful, a complete trainwreck, one of the worst players in the league at his position, simply not sure how to make it any more clear how absolutely, abysmally, terribly he has played.

Everyone ignores that and just says "nah, it doesn't matter, he'll be back, it was just rust". There are lots of guys that never come back from that injury and Zach LaVine has not done anything in the NBA that should make you think he will come back yet. Beyond that, he also wasn't that good before the injury and was a guy mostly valuable for "potential" and not existing performance.

Maybe this will all go away, maybe Zach will come back and show me that he was just rusty. That is a legitimate, good possibility. However, to ignore the fact that there is also a good chance that he's never the same and that even if he was the same it wouldn't be good enough doesn't make sense to me.

Off the top of my head, RUssell Westbrook, Kyle Lowry, Baron Davis, and lesser players like Brandon Knight, Lou Williams, Gallinari, etc. Most of those guys returned to their former ability, and all returned in a much better way than Rose did (I speculate that in large part that's because of a combination of reinjury and mental toughness).

My main point on Lavine's 24 game stint is not that you ignore it, it's that it has minimal predictive value IMO because of the combination of circumstances. So while it's accurate that he was bad, it's minimally if at all meaningful in terms of predicting what he'll look and play like this coming season and beyond.

Pretty sure Westbrook never tore his ACL. Had a meniscus injury.

[Red8911]

I really don't understand letting this kid walk during a rebuild process when his only evaluation was half a season(actually 24 games ) coming back from an ACL injury. And to do what with the savings when he walks? Because none of those free agents next season are coming to this team. Those are all guys looking at winning now and teaming up. History says it will not be in Chicago.

Maybe once the rebuild has hit full force we get big ticket free agents, but not in year 3. It took Philly and Boston a long time to accumulate their assets and build those rosters. It's almost arrogant to think the Bulls are going to be that successful so soon.

Philly took a very long time,too long but Boston got back pretty quick with those picks from Brooklyn and of course Isiah Thomas who became a star all of a sudden ,sped up the process and put them back in the playoffs. I think it only took a year to get back,Boston fans got lucky. Bulls can do it too,let’s not forget they didn’t start from scratch like a typical rebuild.

[Truebiscuit]

The rebound thing is part of the context that usually guys who secure big deals either score with great efficiency (he doesn’t) or they have multiple skills. LaVine doesn’t rebound, doesn’t distribute, and doesn’t defend. In the context of everything that’s important.

And it still doesn’t take into effect that his best shooting percentages came when he wasn’t the number one guy.


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Devin Booker is about to sign a 5 year/$158M deal. His career numbers: 19.8/4.5 reb/4.7 ast/0.9 stl/0.3 blocks through age 21. His teams won 23, 24, and 21 games those three years. 14.8 PER.

Zach LaVine through age 21: 13.7/2.9 reb/3.2 ast/0.8 stl/0.2 blocks. His teams won 16, 29, and 31 games those three years. 13.4 PER.

So, we are talking 6.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.1 steals and 0.1 blocks. I'm sorry, all this consternation over what he gets paid is just flat out dumb in my opinion.

But again, your premise is that Devin Booker isn't overpaid and so LaVine is then worth the value. To clarify my overall premise:

1. Booker isn't worth 30m/season
2. Using Bookers value and the stat comparisons for Booker and LaVine don't justify a higher salary to me
3. LaVine has a sort of plus skill in scoring/athleticism, but has minus skills on defense, rebounding, and overall feel for the game.
4. Bulls are better off continuing to stockpile draftpicks makes more sense then overspending to be average in the East

Using the Suns as a barometer for deals is a mistake since they've not done well in drafting and certainly haven't signed smart either.

I never made any premise, just stating the status of the market.

Status of the market. It doesn't care what you think, what I think, or what the rest of this board thinks.