Zach Lavine: Offered 4/80 from Kings update p26 Bulls Matched

[WindyCityBorn]

There's no rush on LaVine's side. His representation should be looking to get the biggest contract they can find and force the Bulls to decide.

Well the FA dollars are dwindling so he can't just "wait it out" and be left without a chair at the table. The Bulls are in such a great spot here it would be so stupid to just offer him 4/72 when nobody else is even offering more than two years.

If the Kings are out, what teams are even interested in him?

I think the idea is that you make a fair offer to him, so we can use this 4/$72M hypothetical number as an example. That means his team needs to shop around (SAC and ATL) and see if they are willing to top that number right off the bat (doubt it). Then the conversation for LaVine's camp shifts from "what's the best contract we can get" to "do we take the Bulls offer, or do we bet on Zach and just play for the qualifying offer?". That's pressure... $72M in your pocket or $4.6M and the ever looming risk of injury or not playing well, etc. I'd be surprised if he didn't take the money because he'll come out of that deal at age 27 and entering his prime.

Yeah he would be crazy to turn that down if it is the best offer he gets. Health allowing he will still have two major contracts left.

[waffle]

If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M . . . . .

I don't know. No point in making empty threats. I guess I'll complete that sentence. If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M deal, I will bitch about them anonymously on the internet.

Oh no...WE WILL BITCH ABOUT THEM ANONYMOUSLY. Brothers in arms and all that.

[WindyCityBorn]

Well the FA dollars are dwindling so he can't just "wait it out" and be left without a chair at the table. The Bulls are in such a great spot here it would be so stupid to just offer him 4/72 when nobody else is even offering more than two years.

If the Kings are out, what teams are even interested in him?

The Bulls don't want to damage their relationship with him and they don want him to take the qualifying offer. That's why they are not lowballing him. Trying to get the cheapest deal possible is not always the best move. Especially if they sincerely believe he can be part of their long term plan.

I really don't care about pissing of a guy that played at about replacement level for 40 some games. Mirotic had more history and more success with Chicago than Zach and they didn't exactly extend him an olive branch. They shouldn't do it with Zach just because he was the "headliner" of a trade when 14 months later he's clearly the 3rd piece in that deal.

Thankfully you aren't in charge. And I'm not putting Dunn ahead of LaVine. They both have a lot to prove and Dunn is older.

[samwana]

If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M . . . . .

I don't know. No point in making empty threats. I guess I'll complete that sentence. If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M deal, I will bitch about them anonymously on the internet.

Oh no...WE WILL BITCH ABOUT THEM ANONYMOUSLY. Brothers in arms and all that.

Add a sister to that too.

18m on a 1+1 is okay though

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[BR0D1E86]

If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M . . . . .

I don't know. No point in making empty threats. I guess I'll complete that sentence. If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M deal, I will bitch about them anonymously on the internet.

$18M average per season would have him tied at 50th in the league.

I'd personally smile and say "good deal".

If he was a top 200 player it would be solid. Hopefully he becomes one.

[WindyCityBorn]

If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M . . . . .

I don't know. No point in making empty threats. I guess I'll complete that sentence. If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M deal, I will bitch about them anonymously on the internet.

If it's $18M, best case is it's only a two-year contract, with a team option on the back end.

I don't think LaVine does that, but I'd love to be wrong.

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You are right he would not do that.

[WindyCityBorn]

If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M . . . . .

I don't know. No point in making empty threats. I guess I'll complete that sentence. If GarPax give Lavine a 4/72M deal, I will bitch about them anonymously on the internet.

Oh no...WE WILL BITCH ABOUT THEM ANONYMOUSLY. Brothers in arms and all that.

Add a sister to that too.

18m on a 1+1 is okay though

Sent from my SM-G920F using RealGM mobile app

It would have to be like $25 million for a 1+1.

[Bullbleep]

If they actually give him a deal of 4 years at 18m per, then i really hope that they're atleast smart enough to structure it in a way that gives him more now, and less next year when we need all the cap we can get

I think you can only front load so much.

Correct. The CBA says contracts can only increase or decrease by 8% per year. So, a 4-yr front-loaded $72M contract looks like (to a 1st approximation...):

Year 1 - $20.1M
Year 2 - $18.6M
Year 3 - $17.3M
Year 4 - $16.0M

Flip those numbers around for back-loaded contract. Either way, you're not saving a whole lot of cap space on the end that you're targeting the cap savings...

[madvillian]

Howard 2 years 11 million to the Wizards. Another data point that says the well is dry across the league.

[WindyCityBorn]

Howard 2 years 11 million to the Wizards. Another data point that says the well is dry across the league.

Irrelevant to LaVine for numerous reasons.

[madvillian]

Howard 2 years 11 million to the Wizards. Another data point that says the well is dry across the league.

Irrelevant to LaVine for numerous reasons.

Not, it's really not. It illustrates how teams are valuing production. Howard was actually good last year, headcase and locker room problems or not. But in these penny pinching "we can't beat the warriors anyways" times he was bought out and signed for 5.5 million.

The Bulls have to take this into account in their negotiations. They can point to players that are better than zach getting paltry sums and ask his agent what stats do they have that say he's worth more?

If his agent comes back with "you're paying for potential" then the Bulls should just nope the hell out and tell Zach and his camp to come back when they've found out how much "potential" is worth across the league, offer in hand.

[League Circles]

Oh no...WE WILL BITCH ABOUT THEM ANONYMOUSLY. Brothers in arms and all that.

Add a sister to that too.

18m on a 1+1 is okay though

Sent from my SM-G920F using RealGM mobile app

It would have to be like $25 million for a 1+1.

Why not just make it the max (not being sarcastic)? Lavine gets paid as much as allowed next year, and if he impresses, gets paid a much as allowed the next year, though I'd like a max decrease allowable on year 2, so something like 25 in year 1, and a team option or non guarantee in year 2 for 24 mil. Bulls spend money that wouldn't go to anyone else and have no opportunity cost. If he plays really well but doesn't fit great he could be a trade chip too.

If the Bulls would truly rather lock him up for 4 or 5 years at something like 17-20 mil per year, I think they must really believe in him. I think they shouldn't but I hope I'm wrong.

Edit: I guess 25 mil is pretty much his max. I thought it was gonna be 26 or 27.

[WindyCityBorn]

Howard 2 years 11 million to the Wizards. Another data point that says the well is dry across the league.

Irrelevant to LaVine for numerous reasons.

Not, it's really not. It illustrates how teams are valuing production. Howard was actually good last year, headcase and locker room problems or not. But in these penny pinching "we can't beat the warriors anyways" times he was bought out and signed for 5.5 million.

The Bulls have to take this into account in their negotiations. They can point to players that are better than zach getting paltry sums and ask his agent what stats do they have that say he's worth more?

If his agent comes back with "you're paying for potential" then the Bulls should just nope the hell out and tell Zach and his camp to come back when they've found out how much "potential" is worth across the league, offer in hand.

Old, injuries have taken away his best strengths and doesn't really fit with the way teams want to play today. Howard is on his way out and has been bouncing around the league for a while now. LaVine is getting paid on potential and we all know that.

[League Circles]

Deal will end up a bargain.

Im not sure how you can come to that conclusion, but I'd love to hear it.

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Because I believe he is gonna light it up next season. Just what I believe. You or any one else don't have to agree and I'm no gonna try to convince you. It's my opinion.

I actually applaud your attitude. First of all it's positive and filled with confidence. 2nd, you're not allowing yourself to be held to some group think stat-restricted position. I've been in your shoes many times on this board.

That said, when you make a comment like "deal WILL end up a bargain", it tends to read like you're stating it as fact, like you don't allow for the real possibility that it ends up as an albatross. So it's good that you're saying it's just your opinion. Sorry I'm not trying to tell you how to post, just trying to bridge some of the conversational divide.

I was really big on Lance Stephenson and on Derrick Rose waaaaay after the injuries just to name a couple. (I still am on both counts but let's just let that slide haha).

[madvillian]

That's fine I just don't think you pay much for potential given where the Bulls are as a team. This isn't a EC finalist looking to bring back the same team for another bite at the apple. This is a bad team that should be looking to tank again and remain flexible for '19.

Which is why when Zach's agent makes the "you're paying for potential" argument you say that's cool, bring us an offer that shows how much another team is willing to pay for his potential and we'll consider matching.

[madvillian]

I actually applaud your attitude. First of all it's positive and filled with confidence. 2nd, you're not allowing yourself to be held to some group think stat-restricted position. I've been in your shoes many times on this board.

Zach was objectively bad by the eye test last year I'm not sure you need advanced plus minus or any other advanced stats to tell you that. Zach seems to have a major problem creating in the PnR, getting to the FT line, and not competely losing his man on defense every other time down the floor.

If you didn't know he was "Zach Lavine NBA Dunk Champ and Rising Star TM" you'd think he was a guy they brought in from the D-League to put some butts in the seats via fancy dunks while otherwise contributing to the tank.

[WindyCityBorn]

That's fine I just don't think you pay much for potential given where the Bulls are as a team. This isn't a EC finalist looking to bring back the same team for another bite at the apple. This is a bad team that should be looking to tank again and remain flexible for '19.

Which is why when Zach's agent makes the "you're paying for potential" argument you say that's cool, bring us an offer that shows how much another team is willing to pay for his potential and we'll consider matching.

What free agent worth anything is going to sign with a tanking Bulls team unless we vastly overpay? 2019 is probably not going to result in anything unless we pull a 76ers like turnaround and even they still out struck this year. A lot teams have cap space next year. We aren't in some special situation to take advantage of the market. Seen this song and dance enough times. We need work on building from within instead of praying an outsider will turn it around.

[madvillian]

That's fine I just don't think you pay much for potential given where the Bulls are as a team. This isn't a EC finalist looking to bring back the same team for another bite at the apple. This is a bad team that should be looking to tank again and remain flexible for '19.

Which is why when Zach's agent makes the "you're paying for potential" argument you say that's cool, bring us an offer that shows how much another team is willing to pay for his potential and we'll consider matching.

What free agent worth anything is going to sign with a tanking Bulls team unless we vastly overpay? 2019 is probably not going to result in anything unless we pull a 76ers like turnaround and even they still out struck this year.

Overpaying Zach because you're afraid of overpaying a star FA in '19 seems asinine imo.

[bad knees]

Based on KC's article and the apparent likelihood that the Bulls want to sign Zach to a long term contract, I have been trying to figure out the most we can pay him on a four year deal, while keeping our core pieces (Lauri, Dunn, Carter, Hutch and next year's pick) plus having room for two max FAs next summer. By my calculations, the most we can pay Zach is 4/56, or 14 M per year (which coincides with the low end of the rumored Bulls' preferred contract amount).

Assumptions:
Stretch Asik and Felicio next summer and renounce everyone else (including Portis and Val). LaVine's 4/56 contract (staying within the 8 % raise rule): 14M, 12.88 M, 14 M, 15.12 M.

Here are my salary cap numbers:

22,319,231 (Lauri, Dunn, Carter, Hutch plus the stretch amounts for Asik and Felicio)
12,880,000 (LaVine)
4,450,810 (5 roster charges)
4,200,000 (2019 10th pick at 120%)
65,400,000 (two max FAs, assuming both are 7-9 year vets and receive 30% of 109 M cap)

Total: 109,250,041

That's 250K over the projected 109 M cap, which we can deal with by shaving the max FA guys or the pick. Of course, we don't know what pick we will have next year, so this is not 100% a sure thing, but picking at 10 seems like a reasonable projection. We also don't know with certainty what the cap will be, but right now it is projected to be 109 M.

Maybe this is what the Bulls have in mind.

[chefo]

I'm oversimplifying it a bit, but this is how I'd think about Zach, if I were the Bulls' FO.

How much is he worth now, pure bball production-wise? I'd say probably high-quality 6th man type, if he bounces back. So that's what? MLE money? 8M to $10M a year?

Now, let's see what the odds in my head are (I hope the Bulls have at least decent talent evaluators, given that they have access to the guy):

Odds that he's a superstar: say 10% (worth $30M/year)
Odds that he's #2 on a decent team 25% (worth $20M)
Odds that he stays where he's at: 50% (say pre-ACL, Minny Zach--worth $10M)
Odds that he continues stinking it up like last year: 15% (worth league vet minimum, or not much, say $2.5M)

Now, the expected bball value based on the odds above is ~ $13.4M, mostly driven by the fact that Zach currently is not that good, but not a complete throw-away either.

For a large, popular franchise like the Bulls, having a dunk champion is worth more than somebody like the Kings or Minny, mostly because they can easily make back a couple of $M a year from a young, heavily marketed player. So, all-in, if it were me, I'd probably have a line in the sand at $15.5M to $16M / year, knowing full well that half of the contract is me gambling that Lavine will improve.

If he breaks out, great! If he doesn't, at least he will not handicap the franchise for half a decade.

Problem is that I don't think the Bulls think in a probabilistic fashion--because if they did, Felicio's contract would have quarter of the $ and half the years. And, I could have told you that months before he signed, not with 20/20 hindsight.

Anyhow, if you pay Zach $18M-$20M / year, you're playing a low odds hand. It doesn't mean things will not work out, it just means that the likely outcome is not in your favor. You keep playing with such odds and you end up being the Suns or the Kings--stuck in perpetual NBA hell (which btw is not defined as 2nd round of playoffs; to me it's defined as sucking for a whole decade plus).