Post#698 » by chefo » Sat Jul 7, 2018 2:38 am
Now that it's official, here's an analogy. In venture/startup investing, paying $80M for Zach Lavine is known as a hockey-stick. That is to say, you're paying really good $ for a company that loses money every month, but through some magic or another skyrockets into profitability. BTW, in business, the odds of hockey-sticks working out are as follows:
1.) Beats expectations: 1/10
2.) Breaks even: 2/10
3.) (Almost) Complete loss 7/10
For this math to work out, the 1.) has to be a gargantuan success (like Facebook, Google, etc.). Anybody here think that Lavine will lead us to the promised land?
I often can't even fathom what goes inside the heads of some of these FOs... especially Vlade's. Because if it's a bluff, you're relying on the stupidity of your counter-party to bail you out, given that you just went all-in with a Queen high. If it's not--well somebody has to be the clown FO of the league, now that the Nets are under new management.
As somebody who deals with enterprises and $ for a living, the argument that 'it's just 20% of the cap, so no worries if it doesn't work out' sounds utterly preposterous. A player that is 20% of the cap that does not perform is a huge liability, not an asset. Good franchises spend money on proven difference makers. That's how they stay good.
As a Bulls fan, I hope this hockey-stick works out. It's just given how inept the FO has been in everything apart from drafting, I have my doubts. And, given that the offer came from the Kings, who have a history of complete and utter incompetence, that lowers the odds in my opinion.