2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread

[8on]

Markkanen? Durant?

Ayton's shot is nowhere near that good. Still a work in progress.

college freshman, Deandre Ayton

You're kind of making my point. He didn't take a ton of jumpers, so the sample is too small to really extrapolate anyway, and from 20+ feet he was very inconsistent. Not just in shooting %, but if you watched him play you would have seen a lot of those long jumpers being waaay off. Hence why I said work in progress. He's nowhere near the level of guys like Lauri and KD. He's not even as good a shooter as JJJ.

I’ve watched him play more than you have. Those percentages are very good for anyone. I’m not sure whether you’re talking about 3’s or anything outside of the restricted area. He took 135 shots between the 3 pt line and the restricted area, and he made 60 (44.4%). Better 3 pt percentage than any recent top 5 pick center.

He could just dunk 8 times a game and I’d be good with it, but 34% from 3, 44% from midrange and 73% inside? Neither Durant nor Markkanen were that efficient in college.

[Sebastian]

college freshman, Deandre Ayton

You're kind of making my point. He didn't take a ton of jumpers, so the sample is too small to really extrapolate anyway, and from 20+ feet he was very inconsistent. Not just in shooting %, but if you watched him play you would have seen a lot of those long jumpers being waaay off. Hence why I said work in progress. He's nowhere near the level of guys like Lauri and KD. He's not even as good a shooter as JJJ.

I’ve watched him play more than you have. Those percentages are very good for anyone. I’m not sure whether you’re talking about 3’s or anything outside of the restricted area. He took 135 shots between the 3 pt line and the restricted area, and he made 60 (44.4%). Better 3 pt percentage than any recent top 5 pick center.

He could just dunk 8 times a game and I’d be good with it, but 34% from 3, 44% from midrange and 73% inside? Neither Durant nor Markkanen were that efficient in college.

Was JJJ not a top 5 pick center?? He's, again, a much better shooter than Ayton.

Durant and Markk both shot A LOT better from 3 on MANY more attempts. That is not a hill you want to die on. Ayton shot 37% on jump shots (puts him in the 39th percentile...ouch). I get you're a Suns fan and excited, but we're a long way from Ayton being in the conversation of great shooting big men. He has the potential to eventually be in that conversation, but hey, so do JJJ, Carter, and even Bagley -- and that's just from this year's lottery...

[8on]

You're kind of making my point. He didn't take a ton of jumpers, so the sample is too small to really extrapolate anyway, and from 20+ feet he was very inconsistent. Not just in shooting %, but if you watched him play you would have seen a lot of those long jumpers being waaay off. Hence why I said work in progress. He's nowhere near the level of guys like Lauri and KD. He's not even as good a shooter as JJJ.

I’ve watched him play more than you have. Those percentages are very good for anyone. I’m not sure whether you’re talking about 3’s or anything outside of the restricted area. He took 135 shots between the 3 pt line and the restricted area, and he made 60 (44.4%). Better 3 pt percentage than any recent top 5 pick center.

He could just dunk 8 times a game and I’d be good with it, but 34% from 3, 44% from midrange and 73% inside? Neither Durant nor Markkanen were that efficient in college.

Was JJJ not a top 5 pick center?? He's, again, a much better shooter than Ayton.

Durant and Markk both shot A LOT better from 3 on MANY more attempts. That is not a hill you want to die on. Ayton shot 37% on jump shots (puts him in the 39th percentile...ouch). I get you're a Suns fan and excited, but we're a long way from Ayton being in the conversation of great shooting big men. He has the potential to eventually be in that conversation, but hey, so do JJJ, Carter, and even Bagley -- and that's just from this year's lottery...

Didn’t even use the word shooting once. I said jumpers. Jumpers don’t have to be outside the 3 pt line.

37% on jump shots? That’s not what my chart says, and I got that from nba.com

[Sebastian]

I’ve watched him play more than you have. Those percentages are very good for anyone. I’m not sure whether you’re talking about 3’s or anything outside of the restricted area. He took 135 shots between the 3 pt line and the restricted area, and he made 60 (44.4%). Better 3 pt percentage than any recent top 5 pick center.

He could just dunk 8 times a game and I’d be good with it, but 34% from 3, 44% from midrange and 73% inside? Neither Durant nor Markkanen were that efficient in college.

Was JJJ not a top 5 pick center?? He's, again, a much better shooter than Ayton.

Durant and Markk both shot A LOT better from 3 on MANY more attempts. That is not a hill you want to die on. Ayton shot 37% on jump shots (puts him in the 39th percentile...ouch). I get you're a Suns fan and excited, but we're a long way from Ayton being in the conversation of great shooting big men. He has the potential to eventually be in that conversation, but hey, so do JJJ, Carter, and even Bagley -- and that's just from this year's lottery...

Didn’t even use the word shooting once. I said jumpers. Jumpers don’t have to be outside the 3 pt line.

37% on jump shots? That’s not what my chart says, and I got that from nba.com

JJJ averaged 1.25 PPP on contested jumpers. That's bonkers. That plus his 3pt% and sorry, Ayton isn't in the same convo.

The 37% number comes from Synergy. Not sure how they define jumpers, but regardless, it tells the story that most people already know: Ayton has an inconsistent jumper, but nonetheless does have one and thus has the potential to be a KAT-like inside/out offensive player if everything works out just right.

[8on]

Was JJJ not a top 5 pick center?? He's, again, a much better shooter than Ayton.

Durant and Markk both shot A LOT better from 3 on MANY more attempts. That is not a hill you want to die on. Ayton shot 37% on jump shots (puts him in the 39th percentile...ouch). I get you're a Suns fan and excited, but we're a long way from Ayton being in the conversation of great shooting big men. He has the potential to eventually be in that conversation, but hey, so do JJJ, Carter, and even Bagley -- and that's just from this year's lottery...

Didn’t even use the word shooting once. I said jumpers. Jumpers don’t have to be outside the 3 pt line.

37% on jump shots? That’s not what my chart says, and I got that from nba.com

JJJ averaged 1.25 PPP on contested jumpers. That's bonkers. That plus his 3pt% and sorry, Ayton isn't in the same convo.

The 37% number comes from Synergy. Not sure how they define jumpers, but regardless, it tells the story that most people already know: Ayton has an inconsistent jumper, but nonetheless does have one and thus has the potential to be a KAT-like inside/out offensive player if everything works out just right.

Everyone is a poor judge of these things. The chart I used says Synergy at the top. I showed you my evidence; let’s see yours.

[OkcSinceSGA]

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SGA with another solid game.

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[magnumt]

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--Mags

[OkcSinceSGA]

SGA dominated. 25/5/4/2 steals,1 block. Each game he gets better and better. Very proud of our front office for drafting this guy, he's the truth. Averaging about 20/5/4 in 3 games with awesome defensive flashes.

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[jangles86]

Troy Brown Jnr looks like young Paul Pierce.

[PaKii94]

Didn’t even use the word shooting once. I said jumpers. Jumpers don’t have to be outside the 3 pt line.

37% on jump shots? That’s not what my chart says, and I got that from nba.com

JJJ averaged 1.25 PPP on contested jumpers. That's bonkers. That plus his 3pt% and sorry, Ayton isn't in the same convo.

The 37% number comes from Synergy. Not sure how they define jumpers, but regardless, it tells the story that most people already know: Ayton has an inconsistent jumper, but nonetheless does have one and thus has the potential to be a KAT-like inside/out offensive player if everything works out just right.

Everyone is a poor judge of these things. The chart I used says Synergy at the top. I showed you my evidence; let’s see yours.

Let's ignore Durant for right now, Lauri MADE 2x as many 3s (69) in college as Ayton ATTEMPTED (35). He attempted threes at nearly 5x rate. He shot 42.3% on 4.4 3pa. Ayton meanwhile shot 34.3% on 1 3pa. Please stop trying to make Ayton a jump shooter. Lauri was one of, if not the, top shooting bigman ever in the NCAA. Ayton can't hold his jockstrap

While comparing the two, I found it interesting that Lauri also had the higher FTr even with less usage.

[Capn'O]

Doncic or Ayton will be ROY, imo.

Must be. This kid is acting like a complete bonehead so far.

Fortunately for Stevens, Williams is nowhere near an Iverson level talent. If he doesn't smarten up he can find himself buried in the G-League and forgotten about really quickly.

Am I wrong in inferring passive aggressive frustration from Celtics coaching staff from all of the quotes in the article? I'm reluctant to say so with confidence because of how often reporters manipulate quotes. Is this bad press supposed to motivate the guy via humiliation?

Nope, they are frustrated and the organization is embarrassed. They need to assign this kid a babysitter.

Unlike Robinson and Melton, Williams had the bad kind of red flags. The former are kids that got caught up in a corrupt system. Maybe they made bad choices within that cesspool but life in the NBA - an actual job - will be a much better framework for them. The latter... dude showed major motivation and maturity issues. I don't blame the Celtics for taking a flier where they were in the draft but there were still better risks to take on bigs, imo. Vanderbilt and Robinson to name two.

[yoyoboy]

My favorite rookies so far who I've liked what I've seen from in SL are Jackson Jr, WCJ, Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, Melton, Bamba, Ayton, Okogie, Mitchell Robinson, Troy Brown, and Wagner. They've all shown a lot of great things.

Young has looked far from NBA-ready but I have a lot of hope for him and I think his offensive ceiling is higher than all but Doncic, who happens to be the rookie I'm highest on and I'm and I'm mad we can't see him even just a little in SL. I like Landry Shamet but he hasn't played much. Okobo hasn't shot it well but I think he'll develop into a good player. And Gary Clark is another guy I like a lot but he's out with an ankle injury.

I haven't been high on Bagley, Sexton, Knox, MPJ, and Miles Bridges, and SL hasn't changed my mind much except for maybe Knox a bit, though I need to see a lot more from him. It's nice to see more aggressiveness (which shows in how he's been getting to the line), but I'm not sold on his feel for the game and shot yet. Brunson is a guy I thought could be a really good bench playmaker (like FVV) who has disappointed thus far but it's early.

SGA really looks like he could be the "Donovan Mitchell" of this draft. His athleticism doesn't wow you, but he gets to his spots so easily with his fluidity, shiftiness, and long strides, and he uses his length so well to finish at the rim and get deflections on defense. Also I have a lot of confidence in his shot developing. His decision making on offense has been impressive, as well. I wouldn't be shocked if he wins ROTY on that Clippers team, but I think Lou Will handling the ball a lot will make it harder, not to mention the return of Beverley. Ayton and Doncic have to be the favorites at this point. They'll get all the opportunities and responsibility in the world and they should put up great box score numbers from the get go.

[OkcSinceSGA]

My favorite rookies so far who I've liked what I've seen from in SL are Jackson Jr, WCJ, Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, Melton, Bamba, Ayton, Okogie, Mitchell Robinson, Troy Brown, and Wagner. They've all shown a lot of great things.

Young has looked far from NBA-ready but I have a lot of hope for him and I think his offensive ceiling is higher than all but Doncic, who happens to be the rookie I'm highest on and I'm and I'm mad we can't see him even just a little in SL. I like Landry Shamet but he hasn't played much. Okobo hasn't shot it well but I think he'll develop into a good player. And Gary Clark is another guy I like a lot but he's out with an ankle injury.

I haven't been high on Bagley, Sexton, Knox, MPJ, and Miles Bridges, and SL hasn't changed my mind much except for maybe Knox a bit, though I need to see a lot more from him. It's nice to see more aggressiveness (which shows in how he's been getting to the line), but I'm not sold on his feel for the game and shot yet. Brunson is a guy I thought could be a really good bench playmaker (like FVV) who has disappointed thus far but it's early.

SGA really looks like he could be the "Donovan Mitchell" of this draft. His athleticism doesn't wow you, but he gets to his spots so easily with his fluidity, shiftiness, and long strides, and he uses his length so well to finish at the rim and get deflections on defense. Also I have a lot of confidence in his shot developing. His decision making on offense has been impressive, as well. I wouldn't be shocked if he wins ROTY on that Clippers team, but I think Lou Will handling the ball a lot will make it harder, not to mention the return of Beverley. Ayton and Doncic have to be the favorites at this point. They'll get all the opportunities and responsibility in the world and they should put up great box score numbers from the get go.

I still think this draft class could go down as one of the best ever. No Michael Jordan or Shaq etc in this draft but I predict at least 3 or 4 multi year all stars and a TON of legit role players and starters (15 ish at least). The floor for this draft class is maybe the highest I've seen. The guys you listed for example aren't top 3 picks mostly. They are all likely to be starters for years in the right situations.

[Mirotic12]

If a player is drafted the year before they shouldn't be allowed to win ROY. Donovan Mitchell got robbed.

Doncic has been a pro since 15 years old.. How is that fair to the other draftees? This award is all about fairness now right? Give all of em a trophy!

Been a pro? Just because he's getting paid to play, doesn't mean he's with the best players in the world, on the team that drafted him, and travelling/practicing with them.

Real Madrid is better than several NBA teams. So applying your same exact logic to the NBA.....that means dozens upon dozens of NBA players are not professional.

[8on]

JJJ averaged 1.25 PPP on contested jumpers. That's bonkers. That plus his 3pt% and sorry, Ayton isn't in the same convo.

The 37% number comes from Synergy. Not sure how they define jumpers, but regardless, it tells the story that most people already know: Ayton has an inconsistent jumper, but nonetheless does have one and thus has the potential to be a KAT-like inside/out offensive player if everything works out just right.

Everyone is a poor judge of these things. The chart I used says Synergy at the top. I showed you my evidence; let’s see yours.

Let's ignore Durant for right now, Lauri MADE 2x as many 3s (69) in college as Ayton ATTEMPTED (35). He attempted threes at nearly 5x rate. He shot 42.3% on 4.4 3pa. Ayton meanwhile shot 34.3% on 1 3pa. Please stop trying to make Ayton a jump shooter. Lauri was one of, if not the, top shooting bigman ever in the NCAA. Ayton can't hold his jockstrap

While comparing the two, I found it interesting that Lauri also had the higher FTr even with less usage.

When did I say shooter? I already asked when I said the thing I didn’t say.

[IrishBeatdown]

Real Madrid is better than several NBA teams.

Extremely debatable.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Happy for Trae Young to prove me wrong but outside of 15 college games he would be considered a fringe first round pick:

FG Percentage -
Summer League 27%
College 38%
FIBA U18 20%
Nike Challenge 27%

[Quentin]

Doncic has been a pro since 15 years old.. How is that fair to the other draftees? This award is all about fairness now right? Give all of em a trophy!

Been a pro? Just because he's getting paid to play, doesn't mean he's with the best players in the world, on the team that drafted him, and travelling/practicing with them.

Real Madrid is better than several NBA teams. So applying your same exact logic to the NBA.....that means dozens upon dozens of NBA players are not professional.

Yeah, why don't you go ahead and try to prove that.

[NTB]

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[brassviews]

1. Knox
2. Sexton
3. SGA
4. Bagley
5. Carter

NY is an up for grabs situation. The same for Cleveland and LA

That's why I have those guys ahead of everyone else. Not sure Ayton will flourish without a point guard.