Zach Lavine: Offered 4/80 from Kings update p26 Bulls Matched

[BR0D1E86]

I remember when people were flipping out at the contract Oladio signed before he was traded to the Pacers...

Oladipo still ranked favorably in RPM in Orlando and OKC before breaking out. Plus, his defense is very good. His offense merely took a jump from ok to really good. Hopefully LaVine makes the same jump, but he doesn't have as much to fall back on if he doesn't.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Yeah, he always looked like a decent player in the advanced stats. Unlike Lavine, whose career best rpm is 388th in the league.

[johnnyvann840]

LaVine's volume scoring was discussed earlier in this thread, particularly his numbers as they translate Per 36. I had said something along the lines of 'if he can essentially produce his basic per 36 numbers with no minutes restriction he'll always be a tradeable player.' Someone had said that there's tons of players who could produce his scoring output per 36, so I decided to take a look. Here's the complete list of players that score more points per 36 than LaVine (I've removed players who played in too few games/minutes)

1. James Harden 30.9
2. Step Curry 29.7
3. Anthony Davis 27.9
4. Kevin Durrant 27.7
5. Kyrie Irving 27.3
6. Joel Embiid 27.2
7. LeBron James 26.8
8. Damian Lillard 26.5
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo 26.3
10. Devin Booker 26.0
11. Kristaps Porzingis 25.2
12. DeMarcus Cousins 25.1
13. Russell Westbrook 25.1
14. LaMarcus Aldridge 24.9
15. Lou Williams 24.8
16. Demar Derozan 24.4
17. Montrezl Harrell 23.3
18. Kemba Walker 23.3.
19. Blake Griffin 22.7
20. Kevin Love 22.7
21. Tyreke Evans 22.6
22. Bradley Beal 22.5
23. Dennis Schoreder 22.5
24. Donnovan Mitchell 22.1
25. Zach LaVine 22.0
26. Jimmy Butler 21.7
27. Julius Randle 21.7

LaVine is by no means elite and obviously his offensive game has a lot of negatives to it, but he is a top 25 guy when it comes to points per 36. I believe that during the duration of this contract, he'll always be tradeable to team looking for a second or third option. Also the only guys his age or younger on this list are Mitchell, Booker, or Porzingis.

Yeah, Lavine scoring 22 pts per 36 while taking 20 shots (19.5) is not helping any team. Especially when he brings nothing else to the table and his usage is around 30. Huge liability on D, ball stopping. It's essentially just having a chucker taking up valuable usage that could be had by winning players. Any team that deploys Lavine in this manner is sure to lose 50-60 games.

I know this doesn't meet your criteria, but...

Also... Niko could be on that list. He played about the same minutes as Lavine with the Bulls and scored 24.5 pts per 36. Although just 21 pts on just 16.5 shots when combined with Pels portion. Still a much better scoring rate than Lavine. Bobby Portis is also right there on better efficiency. Less than 1 pt difference on less shots. Also, Sean Kilpatrick scored 23.4 pts per 36 on just 18 shots for the Bulls last season. Light on minutes, but he did it. That is 3 players who are within a point from Lavine, overall and two of them were scoring more on less shots. That is just from last years Bulls team.

[johnnyvann840]

I remember when people were flipping out at the contract Oladio signed before he was traded to the Pacers...

Oladipo still ranked favorably in RPM in Orlando and OKC before breaking out. Plus, his defense is very good. His offense merely took a jump from ok to really good. Hopefully LaVine makes the same jump, but he doesn't have as much to fall back on if he doesn't.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Yeah, he always looked like a decent player in the advanced stats. Unlike Lavine, whose career best rpm is 388th in the league.

Yes, Oladipo was always a winning player and his defense is top of the league. There is no comparing Zach Lavine to Victor Oladipo. One is going to take you far, the other is going to bring you down. At least at their current levels of production and efficiency. Even if Lavine is to produce at his pre-ACL 2016 level, he is still a net negative -5.0 per100P.

[BR0D1E86]

Ofc they werent trying to tank at the time. They were trying to fight that last playoff spot and got an obvious boost playing FOR Zach and trying to claw the 8th seed. It lasted admirably long til they run out of gas as they had to fill in 37mins of Zach´s playtime which was impossible at the time. I was following the team that season as well.

They were way, way under .500 when he got hurt. No one realistically thought they were making the playoffs at any point past early November.

Guess you werent one that followed Timberwolves when sayin that ?
Portland was the last one that got into playoffs with a 41-41 and they were 22-28 and Timberwolves were 19-30 before the date Zach got injured. So much for being realistic?
Difference was that Portland went for a 13-3 rant on March while Timberwolves parts started to fall off being porous in away games loosing seven outta nine.
Fighting was fierce among several teams for the last spot at the time.

They went on a little hot streak right before he got hurt that continued after he got hurt. Right before he got hurt they went on an 8-3 run. But he had little to do with it. He shot 40% and 27% from 3 during it. And like I said, it continued after he got hurt. It was mostly built on a crazy hot streak by Wiggins, who averaged 26 ppg on 50% from the floor during the streak.

Before that 8-3 stretch they were 11-26. So make snarky comments about whatever you want. Lavine was an anchor on their hot streak, if anything. His shooting was terrible during it, he only went to the line about 2x a game during it, he rebounded and assisted at his unimpressive career rates during it, and he typically played no defense.

[HomoSapien]

Yeah, Lavine scoring 22 pts per 36 while taking 20 shots (19.5) is not helping any team. Especially when he brings nothing else to the table and his usage is around 30. Huge liability on D, ball stopping. It's essentially just having a chucker taking up valuable usage that could be had by winning players. Any team that deploys Lavine in this manner is sure to lose 50-60 games.

I don't disagree with anything you are saying. I have all the exact same criticisms about LaVine and also hate his game, but the fact is that he can score and he'll only be 27-years-old by the end of the contract. You can't convince me that he's untradeable, because we've seen far worse, older, and more expensive players traded before.

I also assume that at 22-23, he's far from a finished project and will come back with better overall numbers.

[Peelboy]

LaVine's volume scoring was discussed earlier in this thread, particularly his numbers as they translate Per 36. I had said something along the lines of 'if he can essentially produce his basic per 36 numbers with no minutes restriction he'll always be a tradeable player.' Someone had said that there's tons of players who could produce his scoring output per 36, so I decided to take a look. Here's the complete list of players that score more points per 36 than LaVine (I've removed players who played in too few games/minutes)

1. James Harden 30.9
2. Step Curry 29.7
3. Anthony Davis 27.9
4. Kevin Durrant 27.7
5. Kyrie Irving 27.3
6. Joel Embiid 27.2
7. LeBron James 26.8
8. Damian Lillard 26.5
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo 26.3
10. Devin Booker 26.0
11. Kristaps Porzingis 25.2
12. DeMarcus Cousins 25.1
13. Russell Westbrook 25.1
14. LaMarcus Aldridge 24.9
15. Lou Williams 24.8
16. Demar Derozan 24.4
17. Montrezl Harrell 23.3
18. Kemba Walker 23.3.
19. Blake Griffin 22.7
20. Kevin Love 22.7
21. Tyreke Evans 22.6
22. Bradley Beal 22.5
23. Dennis Schoreder 22.5
24. Donnovan Mitchell 22.1
25. Zach LaVine 22.0
26. Jimmy Butler 21.7
27. Julius Randle 21.7

LaVine is by no means elite and obviously his offensive game has a lot of negatives to it, but he is a top 25 guy when it comes to points per 36. I believe that during the duration of this contract, he'll always be tradeable to team looking for a second or third option. Also the only guys his age or younger on this list are Mitchell, Booker, or Porzingis.

Yeah, Lavine scoring 22 pts per 36 while taking 20 shots (19.5) is not helping any team. Especially when he brings nothing else to the table and his usage is around 30. Huge liability on D, ball stopping. It's essentially just having a chucker taking up valuable usage that could be had by winning players. Any team that deploys Lavine in this manner is sure to lose 50-60 games.

??? Only time his usage was high was during this past years limited min/limited time stretch. In MN USG was in the 22 range and shots/36 in the 15 range (with higher and improving over time TS%).

I think it’s clear that if we get the LaVine of the 24 game stretch with minutes restrictions, no camp/offseason, trying to show he deserves a contract, and varying and mostly chump teammates then we made a bad deal. But anything more like his history is a far different story.

[panthermark]

Guys, you are bringing me down. Yes, I know more than 2/3rds voted "no" to matching the deal (and I was one of them). But he is a Bull now. Time to grab a magnifying glass and look for a glimpse of a silver lining. I will start.

It is "possible" he improves, and Hunter Mar is quite attractive.

[johnnyvann840]

LaVine's volume scoring was discussed earlier in this thread, particularly his numbers as they translate Per 36. I had said something along the lines of 'if he can essentially produce his basic per 36 numbers with no minutes restriction he'll always be a tradeable player.' Someone had said that there's tons of players who could produce his scoring output per 36, so I decided to take a look. Here's the complete list of players that score more points per 36 than LaVine (I've removed players who played in too few games/minutes)

1. James Harden 30.9
2. Step Curry 29.7
3. Anthony Davis 27.9
4. Kevin Durrant 27.7
5. Kyrie Irving 27.3
6. Joel Embiid 27.2
7. LeBron James 26.8
8. Damian Lillard 26.5
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo 26.3
10. Devin Booker 26.0
11. Kristaps Porzingis 25.2
12. DeMarcus Cousins 25.1
13. Russell Westbrook 25.1
14. LaMarcus Aldridge 24.9
15. Lou Williams 24.8
16. Demar Derozan 24.4
17. Montrezl Harrell 23.3
18. Kemba Walker 23.3.
19. Blake Griffin 22.7
20. Kevin Love 22.7
21. Tyreke Evans 22.6
22. Bradley Beal 22.5
23. Dennis Schoreder 22.5
24. Donnovan Mitchell 22.1
25. Zach LaVine 22.0
26. Jimmy Butler 21.7
27. Julius Randle 21.7

LaVine is by no means elite and obviously his offensive game has a lot of negatives to it, but he is a top 25 guy when it comes to points per 36. I believe that during the duration of this contract, he'll always be tradeable to team looking for a second or third option. Also the only guys his age or younger on this list are Mitchell, Booker, or Porzingis.

Yeah, Lavine scoring 22 pts per 36 while taking 20 shots (19.5) is not helping any team. Especially when he brings nothing else to the table and his usage is around 30. Huge liability on D, ball stopping. It's essentially just having a chucker taking up valuable usage that could be had by winning players. Any team that deploys Lavine in this manner is sure to lose 50-60 games.

??? Only time his usage was high was during this past years limited min/limited time stretch. In MN USG was in the 22 range and shots/36 in the 15 range (with higher and improving over time TS%).

I think it’s clear that if we get the LaVine of the 24 game stretch with minutes restrictions, no camp/offseason, trying to show he deserves a contract, and varying and mostly chump teammates then we made a bad deal. But anything more like his history is a far different story.

Disagree. Because his history still sucks and is highly net negative. We have 6600 minutes of bad basketball. Regardless of TS%( which has never been "good" anyway). He still doesn't play any D and he doesn't create for others or make his teammates any better. Makes them worse.

[johnnyvann840]

I just feel really bad for Lauri and Dunn. We saw what happened to them last season with Lavine on the floor with them. Dunn and Lavine were a terrible combination before they got here, too. Feel terrible for Block Panther too. He might have had a shot at ROY.

OK, I'll stop now. I'm officially rooting for Lavine to be a good player. He is a Bull and there is nothing left to do but smile..... and hope for the best.

[bigworld2017]

For how many years have we read posts suggesting that the Bulls needed to get younger and more athletic. Posts which I agreed with by the way. When you look at the remake of our roster in just a few short years and I for one think GarPax are making great strides in that regard. Dunn might not be a PG of a Chris Paul caliber, but no one can deny that he is certainly an above average athlete for his position. I think he's going to have a strong year as we added more scoring options for him to pass to. Lavine is an athletic freak. And the kid works tirelessly. I think he is also going to surprise the hell out of the doubters. He has his contract, his security. He can concentrate on winning, instead of shaking off rust and trying to keep himself marketable. He's a good teammate.

I am encouraged by the pictures circulating of the team coming together in this off season to support the Summer League guys and go out to dinner. Little things like that can bind a team. We have better athletes now than we have had in some time. We have more and better shooters. We have much better depth. We have "interchangability" in the back court and the front court. We can get contributions from 1 thru 12 on the roster and not overwork guys, which contributes to non contact, soft tissue injuries. And the best thing going for us is that we play in the East. Not every game will be the Bataan Death March. The team can grow in experience and confidence. We have a nice mix of veterans and young guys for them to mentor. I can't wait for training camp and the upcoming season.

[Peelboy]

Disagree. Because his history still sucks and is highly net negative. We have 6600 minutes of bad basketball. Regardless of TS%( which has never been "good" anyway). He still doesn't play any D and he doesn't create for others or make his teammates any better. Makes them worse.

2016-17, he was 8th among SGs in TS%, 10th in OWS, 5th in OBPM, while being 17th in USG%. And in all of those metrics, he was the youngest SG in the top 20 by 2-4 years. And he had improved in each of those in each of his first 3 years.

That's a pretty solid start to a career esp for a kid who entered the league at 19. His defense needs work, no doubt about it. But even with that D he was approx net neutral (BPM of -0.3, PER of 14.6). Again, all at the age of 21. That "highly net negative" history is his first 2 years in the league as a 19-20 year old.

Not at all unreasonable to expect something like 20PPG on a 58-60TS% with a 38 3% and something like 4APG/5RPG. That and marginal improvements on D will make him a pretty valuable guy.

[johnnyvann840]

Disagree. Because his history still sucks and is highly net negative. We have 6600 minutes of bad basketball. Regardless of TS%( which has never been "good" anyway). He still doesn't play any D and he doesn't create for others or make his teammates any better. Makes them worse.

2016-17, he was 8th among SGs in TS%, 10th in OWS, 5th in OBPM, while being 17th in USG%. And in all of those metrics, he was the youngest SG in the top 20 by 2-4 years. And he had improved in each of those in each of his first 3 years.

That's a pretty solid start to a career esp for a kid who entered the league at 19. His defense needs work, no doubt about it. But even with that D he was approx net neutral (BPM of -0.3, PER of 14.6). Again, all at the age of 21. That "highly net negative" history is his first 2 years in the league as a 19-20 year old.

Not at all unreasonable to expect something like 20PPG on a 58-60TS% with a 38 3% and something like 4APG/5RPG. That and marginal improvements on D will make him a pretty valuable guy.

He was not net neutral. The Wolves were net 5 pts per 100 worse with him on the floor. As bad as they were as a team they were even worse with him.

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIN5.HTM#onoff

He needs to make far more than "marginal improvements" on defense to be valuable. He needs to completely change his game. He's simply been detrimental to his team up until now. Even during his only decent few months span of his 4 season career... Simply put, one of the worst players in the NBA when it comes to impacting the scoreboard. Truly.

[pipfan]

His man D is actually ok. It's his team D that is terrible

[StunnerKO]

His man D is actually ok. It's his team D that is terrible

Yea I’ve seen him stay with some players a few times but his team defense is horrendous

[jcuuofd]

The Bulls paid too much for Lavine. I would have preferred Marcus Smart for $14 million per year. He is more durable and he is a much better defender.

[johnnyvann840]

That "highly net negative" history is his first 2 years in the league as a 19-20 year old.

No. It wasn't. It was those two years, and then the next year and then last year also. Amazingly consistent negative impact since 2014. Pre-injury and post injury. Close to the same thing four seasons in a row. Different teams, lineups, coaches, teammates, opponents. 6600 minutes of amazingly consistent floor impact.

http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN4.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1516/15MIN4.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIN5.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1718/17CHI8.HTM#onoff

Not at all unreasonable to expect something like 20PPG on a 58-60TS% with a 38 3% and something like 4APG/5RPG. That and marginal improvements on D will make him a pretty valuable guy.

You might be right about all those stats. Even a marginal improvement on defense (hell, only one way to go is up- can't get worse).

In fact, I think he will average MORE than 20 PPG this season.

Here's the thing. None of that matters to me and it shouldn't to you. The only thing that should matter is whether or not he is making the CHICAGO BULLS a BETTER TEAM. That is going to take more than offensive raw scoring stats. It's going to take a new mental approach to the game. It's going to take good decisions with the ball. It's going to take him doing the little things for the team.. setting solid screens when it's called for. avoiding bad shot selection. Seeing the floor like a guard needs to. Making the extra pass. The right pass. Getting back on D. Anticipating and rotating on time. Anticipating and getting into passing lanes. Pressuring the ball handler on defense and making things difficult for opposing guards. Being engaged and applying himself on both ends of the floor. Rebounding his position well. He needs to become a good basketball player, not just a scorer.

I'm here hoping he can do just that. We all should be.

[FecesOfDeath]

That "highly net negative" history is his first 2 years in the league as a 19-20 year old.

No. It wasn't. It was those two years, and then the next year and then last year also. Amazingly consistent negative impact since 2014. Pre-injury and post injury. Close to the same thing four seasons in a row. Different teams, lineups, coaches, teammates, opponents. 6600 minutes of amazingly consistent floor impact.

http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN4.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1516/15MIN4.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIN5.HTM#onoff

http://www.82games.com/1718/17CHI8.HTM#onoff

Not at all unreasonable to expect something like 20PPG on a 58-60TS% with a 38 3% and something like 4APG/5RPG. That and marginal improvements on D will make him a pretty valuable guy.

You might be right about all those stats. Even a marginal improvement on defense (hell, only one way to go is up- can't get worse).

In fact, I think he will average MORE than 20 PPG this season.

Here's the thing. None of that matters to me and it shouldn't to you. The only thing that should matter is whether or not he is making the CHICAGO BULLS a BETTER TEAM. That is going to take more than offensive raw scoring stats. It's going to take a new mental approach to the game. It's going to take good decisions with the ball. It's going to take him doing the little things for the team.. setting solid screens when it's called for. avoiding bad shot selection. Seeing the floor like a guard needs to. Making the extra pass. The right pass. Getting back on D. Anticipating and rotating on time. Anticipating and getting into passing lanes. Pressuring the ball handler on defense and making things difficult for opposing guards. Being engaged and applying himself on both ends of the floor. Rebounding his position well. He needs to become a good basketball player, not just a scorer.

I'm here hoping he can do just that. We all should be.

I'm of the opinion that though Zach's defense has rarely been good and at most times bad, his negative impact on that end is not that pronounced.

First of all, you can toss out this past season. Not only is the sample size too small, but he just came back from a torn ACL, where even though he clearly didn't lose much speed or athleticism on the days he wasn't sore, he was obviously rusty. I think this point is easy to agree with.

Second of all, the Wolves just swapped out Zach and Rubio for Jimmy, Taj, and Teague. Rubio is probably a better defender than Teague is, while Jimmy is clearly superior to Zach defensively, and Taj is an upgrade from Dieng. Therefore, it should be a obvious net positive on defense for the Wolves, right? While the Wolves improved their defensive efficiency by .9, they still ended up 27th in the league -- the same ranking as it was the previous season with Zach and Rubio.

Zach obviously should keep improving on his defense, especially his team defense, but I don't think he's outright compromising the team overall to the extent that most people here think he is.

[johnnyvann840]

^^ The Wolves defense is never going to be decent unless Wiggins and KAT improve a TON. Especially KAT. He's so awful on D that it doesn't matter what the rest of the team does. When the last line of defense is that soft and constantly out of position a team is going nowhere defensively.

[transplant]

Personally, I'm done with the LaVine debate. Everyone's had a chance to weigh in and no stat has been left unturned.

Signing LaVine is a gamble...you know it, I know it and the Bulls FO sure as hell knows it. There will be a time for i told you sos, but that's months away at least.

Maybe that horse everyone's beating still has a breath or two left, but I think it's pretty much gonzo.

[Jcool0]

I just feel really bad for Lauri and Dunn. We saw what happened to them last season with Lavine on the floor with them. Dunn and Lavine were a terrible combination before they got here, too. Feel terrible for Block Panther too. He might have had a shot at ROY.

OK, I'll stop now. I'm officially rooting for Lavine to be a good player. He is a Bull and there is nothing left to do but smile..... and hope for the best.