Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[nate33]

Beal wasn’t consensus either, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes were definitely in the equation. Multiple teams were looking to trade up for him. The Cavs really wanted him.

That's not the way I remember it.

Beal was easily the consensus pick. There was a small contingent for Barnes, and nobody else was really an option. Thomas Robinson was mentioned very early on in the process, but by the time draft day rolled around, nobody wanted him at #3. It was basically 80% in favor of Beal, 15% in favor of Barnes, and 5% in favor of anyone else. Every mock draft in creation had EG picking Beal at #3.

That’s because we made that big Ariza Nene trade and made it blatantly obvious that we wanted Beal.

Don’t you remember all the waiters/Beal debates???

Idk, it’s been along time.

I did some deep research. Here's the Draft thread the day before draft day. I'm linking to Dat2U's final pre-draft analysis. He totally nailed it, as usual:

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1189529&start=800#p32372894

You can scroll around elsewhere in the thread and decide what you think the consensus is.

I also found this thread that predicts the draft. All but one poster predicted Beal to the Wiz:
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1188957

And here's one of my posts summarizing the mock drafts:
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1189529&start=840#p32375924

A summary of the top 3 picks in several major mock drafts:

SB Nation, Tom Ziller: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
ESPN, Chad Ford: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
Draft Express, Jonathon Divony: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CBS Sports, Jeff Goodman: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CBS Sports, Matt Moore: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
Sports Illustrated, Sam Amick: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CSN Washington, Ben Standig: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.

Not a lot of variation there.

[NatP4]

That's not the way I remember it.

Beal was easily the consensus pick. There was a small contingent for Barnes, and nobody else was really an option. Thomas Robinson was mentioned very early on in the process, but by the time draft day rolled around, nobody wanted him at #3. It was basically 80% in favor of Beal, 15% in favor of Barnes, and 5% in favor of anyone else. Every mock draft in creation had EG picking Beal at #3.

That’s because we made that big Ariza Nene trade and made it blatantly obvious that we wanted Beal.

Don’t you remember all the waiters/Beal debates???

Idk, it’s been along time.

I did some deep research. Here's the Draft thread the day before draft day. I'm linking to Dat2U's final pre-draft analysis. He totally nailed it, as usual:

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1189529&start=800#p32372894

You can scroll around elsewhere in the thread and decide what you think the consensus is.

I also found this thread that predicts the draft. All but one poster predicted Beal to the Wiz:
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1188957

And here's one of my posts summarizing the mock drafts:
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1189529&start=840#p32375924

A summary of the top 3 picks in several major mock drafts:

SB Nation, Tom Ziller: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
ESPN, Chad Ford: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
Draft Express, Jonathon Divony: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CBS Sports, Jeff Goodman: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CBS Sports, Matt Moore: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
Sports Illustrated, Sam Amick: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CSN Washington, Ben Standig: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.

Not a lot of variation there.

So that looks like we made a very good choice going off the board and taking Beal instead of Robinson, right??

[Kanyewest]

There were also mocks with Beal being taken at #2 and the Wizards taking MKG.

Fox Sports - https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2012-nba-mock-draft-anthony-davis-bradley-beal-michael-kidd-gilchrist-thomas-robinson-062712

NBADraft.net - http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

[payitforward]

That’s because we made that big Ariza Nene trade and made it blatantly obvious that we wanted Beal.

Don’t you remember all the waiters/Beal debates???

Idk, it’s been along time.

I did some deep research. Here's the Draft thread the day before draft day. I'm linking to Dat2U's final pre-draft analysis. He totally nailed it, as usual:

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1189529&start=800#p32372894

You can scroll around elsewhere in the thread and decide what you think the consensus is.

I also found this thread that predicts the draft. All but one poster predicted Beal to the Wiz:
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1188957

And here's one of my posts summarizing the mock drafts:
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1189529&start=840#p32375924

A summary of the top 3 picks in several major mock drafts:

SB Nation, Tom Ziller: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
ESPN, Chad Ford: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
Draft Express, Jonathon Divony: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CBS Sports, Jeff Goodman: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CBS Sports, Matt Moore: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
Sports Illustrated, Sam Amick: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.
CSN Washington, Ben Standig: 1. Davis - 2. Robinson - 3. Beal.

Not a lot of variation there.

So that looks like we made a very good choice going off the board and taking Beal instead of Robinson, right??

Robinson? Wow... I recollect it always being a question of whether Charlotte would take MK-G or Beal - w/ us taking the guy they didn't take.

Thomas Robinson was one of the biggest top-5 busts in a long long time.

[payitforward]

Yup. To add to that, they not only were premium top-3 picks but Wall, Beal and Porter were near consensus at those spots. Ernie went with the most conservative media-friendly picks - it’s not like he reached for a player or took a gamble and proved everyone wrong. He went with the consensus opinions found on espn.com. He shouldn’t be given a ton of credit here

Agreed. He gets zero credit for Wall and Beal. I'm give him some modest credit for Porter whom I don't think was a unanimous consensus. Noel was still on the board. And Cody Zeller was also highly regarded. We also had Ariza and Webster on the roster at the time (with Webster having just come off his best season).

Beal wasn’t consensus either, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes were definitely in the equation. Multiple teams were looking to trade up for him. The Cavs really wanted him.

And just look at the 1st round of that 2013 draft, just brutal, Ernie deserves credit for the Otto pick. Noel was the consensus #1 for most of the year.

Noel fell out of #1 b/c he was injured. Otto Porter was the consensus #3 throughout the pre-draft period. What was undeniably weird, however, was Cleveland taking Bennett first in the draft. If they'd taken Oladipo, Orlando might have taken Porter.

But Ernie gets no credit for taking Porter #3 given he was available.

As Nate has demonstrated, Beal certainly was consensus -- virtually universal -- to us in 2012. In fairness, I did worry Ernie would take Barnes. So if you want to give him credit for not being an idiot, sure, why not? Kinda minimal.

[NatP4]

Agreed. He gets zero credit for Wall and Beal. I'm give him some modest credit for Porter whom I don't think was a unanimous consensus. Noel was still on the board. And Cody Zeller was also highly regarded. We also had Ariza and Webster on the roster at the time (with Webster having just come off his best season).

Beal wasn’t consensus either, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes were definitely in the equation. Multiple teams were looking to trade up for him. The Cavs really wanted him.

And just look at the 1st round of that 2013 draft, just brutal, Ernie deserves credit for the Otto pick. Noel was the consensus #1 for most of the year.

Noel fell out of #1 b/c he was injured. Otto Porter was the consensus #3 throughout the pre-draft period. What was undeniably weird, however, was Cleveland taking Bennett first in the draft. If they'd taken Oladipo, Orlando might have taken Porter.

But Ernie gets no credit for taking Porter #3 given he was available.

As Nate has demonstrated, Beal certainly was consensus -- virtually universal -- to us in 2012. In fairness, I did worry Ernie would take Barnes. So if you want to give him credit for not being an idiot, sure, why not? Kinda minimal.

Did you actually read what Nate just posted? Robinson was universally mocked at 2 and didn’t go 2nd. MKG went 2nd, we passed on Robinson and Waiters, took Beal

Both Noel and Len were still in the mix for number 1 in Otto’s draft year. Wizards fans were flipping out when Noel dropped to us, he was smart to pass and deserves credit.

[nate33]

Both Noel and Len were still in the mix for number 1 in Otto’s draft year. Wizards fans were flipping out when Noel dropped to us, he was smart to pass and deserves credit.

Yes. It's easy to say in hindsight that Noel was an injury risk and passing on him was a no-brainer, but it was much harder to make that assessment in real time. Noel was #1 on every mock and his slide to #5 was pretty surprising. And again, it's worth noting that we had Ariza and Webster, both coming off perhaps their best seasons, while our center position was staffed with two guys on the downside of their careers and we had no PF (what many envisioned Noel would become).

I'm not saying Porter was a brilliant, incisive selection. I'm just saying he wasn't a total no-brainer. I think many GM's could have picked the wrong guy in that spot. I think the Porter selection earns EG more credit than either the Wall or Beal selections.

[closg00]

Agreed. He gets zero credit for Wall and Beal. I'm give him some modest credit for Porter whom I don't think was a unanimous consensus. Noel was still on the board. And Cody Zeller was also highly regarded. We also had Ariza and Webster on the roster at the time (with Webster having just come off his best season).

Beal wasn’t consensus either, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes were definitely in the equation. Multiple teams were looking to trade up for him. The Cavs really wanted him.

And just look at the 1st round of that 2013 draft, just brutal, Ernie deserves credit for the Otto pick. Noel was the consensus #1 for most of the year.

Noel fell out of #1 b/c he was injured. Otto Porter was the consensus #3 throughout the pre-draft period. What was undeniably weird, however, was Cleveland taking Bennett first in the draft. If they'd taken Oladipo, Orlando might have taken Porter.

But Ernie gets no credit for taking Porter #3 given he was available.

As Nate has demonstrated, Beal certainly was consensus -- virtually universal -- to us in 2012. In fairness, I did worry Ernie would take Barnes. So if you want to give him credit for not being an idiot, sure, why not? Kinda minimal.

Beal was consensus AND we needed a SG, when we drafted Porter we needed a SF and he was ranked right up-there, another no-brainer.

[DCZards]

Beal wasn’t consensus either, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes were definitely in the equation. Multiple teams were looking to trade up for him. The Cavs really wanted him.

And just look at the 1st round of that 2013 draft, just brutal, Ernie deserves credit for the Otto pick. Noel was the consensus #1 for most of the year.

Noel fell out of #1 b/c he was injured. Otto Porter was the consensus #3 throughout the pre-draft period. What was undeniably weird, however, was Cleveland taking Bennett first in the draft. If they'd taken Oladipo, Orlando might have taken Porter.

But Ernie gets no credit for taking Porter #3 given he was available.

As Nate has demonstrated, Beal certainly was consensus -- virtually universal -- to us in 2012. In fairness, I did worry Ernie would take Barnes. So if you want to give him credit for not being an idiot, sure, why not? Kinda minimal.

Beal was consensus AND we needed a SG, when we drafted Porter we needed a SF and he was ranked right up-there, another no-brainer.

Agree with Nate...and for the reasons he stated...with Noel on the board Porter was far from a no-brainer.

[NatP4]

Beal wasn’t consensus either, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes were definitely in the equation. Multiple teams were looking to trade up for him. The Cavs really wanted him.

And just look at the 1st round of that 2013 draft, just brutal, Ernie deserves credit for the Otto pick. Noel was the consensus #1 for most of the year.

Noel fell out of #1 b/c he was injured. Otto Porter was the consensus #3 throughout the pre-draft period. What was undeniably weird, however, was Cleveland taking Bennett first in the draft. If they'd taken Oladipo, Orlando might have taken Porter.

But Ernie gets no credit for taking Porter #3 given he was available.

As Nate has demonstrated, Beal certainly was consensus -- virtually universal -- to us in 2012. In fairness, I did worry Ernie would take Barnes. So if you want to give him credit for not being an idiot, sure, why not? Kinda minimal.

Beal was consensus AND we needed a SG, when we drafted Porter we needed a SF and he was ranked right up-there, another no-brainer.

We had Webster coming off his best season in the league and just acquired Ariza, but we needed a SF?

And we needed a SG because we restructured our roster just before the draft with the Ariza Nene trade, targeted Beal. Robinson was consensus ranked higher than Beal, Barnes was in the mix, Drummond was in the mix.

[ozthegap]

Naw there were alot of updated mock drafts the year beal was drafted. Nate posted one version of each mock draft, but i remember there was a lot of up and down that year. there was real talk of us ending up with mkg

[payitforward]

Naw there were alot of updated mock drafts the year beal was drafted. Nate posted one version of each mock draft, but i remember there was a lot of up and down that year. there was real talk of us ending up with mkg

Yup, my memory was that it was all about MK-G vs. Beal. & there was a lot of debate back & forth. I preferred Beal, but was ok w/ our winding up w/ MK-G if Beal was gone.

I think there might have been 1 or 2 people who liked Robinson. Certainly there were people who predicted Drummond would be very good. I thought Barnes was going to be a bad NBA player, non-versatile & probably not a starter in the league. He has turned out better than I thought, but he really isn't good overall -- despite scoring a lot of points. What's odd about him is that he had one very good year, in '14-15, a real outlier.

It would be easy enough to check the draft thread for that year -- but... it's 6 years ago, so why bother?

[payitforward]

I've moved this post to the ernie thread so that we can focus on TBJ in this one...

Agree with Nate...and for the reasons he stated...with Noel on the board Porter was far from a no-brainer.

Interesting. Do you mean that there was a wide range of opinions here? Or do you mean that, in fact, Noel would have been legitimately preferable?

Before his injury I never gave Noel a thought -- seemed to me there was literally zero chance he'd be on the board @#3. It seemed 100% it would be Porter, which I thought was just fine. Yet, at that point if he'd dropped I'd have picked him over Porter. So, in that sense & at that point, true enough that Porter was not "a no-brainer."

But once Noel was injured, he was out of the picture for me. There was no way I could know how serious the injury was -- but, I did worry that if he dropped Porter might not be there for us.

Then Cleveland obliged us by taking Bennett #1. Oladipo went to Orlando, & when we picked both Porter & Noel were on the board. I still thought Porter was the no-brainer pick -- certainly between them. Because of the uncertainty around Noel from his injury.

edit: But, thinking back, I agree that there were a fair bunch of people who wanted to pick Noel @ #3 -- despite his being injured. & there were some rumblings & complaints when we went for Porter. So, yes, it's an overstatement to call Porter a "no-brainer," though he was in my mind.

[payitforward]

Moving this here from the TBJ thread, where it's a distraction...

Both Noel and Len were still in the mix for number 1 in Otto’s draft year. Wizards fans were flipping out when Noel dropped to us, he was smart to pass and deserves credit.

Yes. It's easy to say in hindsight that Noel was an injury risk and passing on him was a no-brainer, but it was much harder to make that assessment in real time. Noel was #1 on every mock and his slide to #5 was pretty surprising. And again, it's worth noting that we had Ariza and Webster, both coming off perhaps their best seasons, while our center position was staffed with two guys on the downside of their careers and we had no PF (what many envisioned Noel would become).

I'm not saying Porter was a brilliant, incisive selection. I'm just saying he wasn't a total no-brainer. I think many GM's could have picked the wrong guy in that spot. I think the Porter selection earns EG more credit than either the Wall or Beal selections.

I agree with your last sentence.

&, since it's always possible to pick the wrong guy even near the top of the draft, it's unfair of me to deny Ernie at least some credit for those top picks. Maybe not for picking Wall, who really was universally thought to be the #1 guy, but at least some acknowledgement for picking Beal & Porter.

With the exception of Damien Lillard (but we weren't picking another PG) & Andre Drummond, no player in the rest of R1/2012 has been anywhere near as successful in the league as Bradley Beal. Weirdly, the best pick would have been Draymond Green. Imagine the uproar if Ernie had picked Draymond Green!?! LOL....

If he'd picked Noel in 2013, no one would have blinked. Many here would have applauded the pick -- yet it's obvious that Porter was a better choice.

So, I was wrong -- give Ernie some credit for each of those picks.

[payitforward]

Agree with Nate...and for the reasons he stated...with Noel on the board Porter was far from a no-brainer.

Interesting. Do you mean that there was a wide range of opinions here? Or do you mean that, in fact, Noel would have been legitimately preferable?

Before his injury I never gave Noel a thought -- seemed to me there was literally zero chance he'd be on the board @#3. It seemed 100% it would be Porter, which I thought was just fine. Yet, at that point if he'd dropped I'd have picked him over Porter. So, in that sense & at that point, true enough that Porter was not "a no-brainer."

But once Noel was injured, he was out of the picture for me. There was no way I could know how serious the injury was -- but, I did worry that if he dropped Porter might not be there for us.

Then Cleveland obliged us by taking Bennett #1. Oladipo went to Orlando, & when we picked both Porter & Noel were on the board. I still thought Porter was the no-brainer pick -- certainly between them. Because of the uncertainty around Noel from his injury.

edit: But, thinking back, I agree that there were a fair bunch of people who wanted to pick Noel @ #3 -- despite his being injured. & there were some rumblings & complaints when we went for Porter. So, yes, it's an overstatement to call Porter a "no-brainer," though he was in my mind.

[ClutchDJ]

Moving this here from the TBJ thread, where it's a distraction...

Both Noel and Len were still in the mix for number 1 in Otto’s draft year. Wizards fans were flipping out when Noel dropped to us, he was smart to pass and deserves credit.

Yes. It's easy to say in hindsight that Noel was an injury risk and passing on him was a no-brainer, but it was much harder to make that assessment in real time. Noel was #1 on every mock and his slide to #5 was pretty surprising. And again, it's worth noting that we had Ariza and Webster, both coming off perhaps their best seasons, while our center position was staffed with two guys on the downside of their careers and we had no PF (what many envisioned Noel would become).

I'm not saying Porter was a brilliant, incisive selection. I'm just saying he wasn't a total no-brainer. I think many GM's could have picked the wrong guy in that spot. I think the Porter selection earns EG more credit than either the Wall or Beal selections.

I agree with your last sentence.

&, since it's always possible to pick the wrong guy even near the top of the draft, it's unfair of me to deny Ernie at least some credit for those top picks. Maybe not for picking Wall, who really was universally thought to be the #1 guy, but at least some acknowledgement for picking Beal & Porter.

With the exception of Damien Lillard (but we weren't picking another PG) & Andre Drummond, no player in the rest of R1/2012 has been anywhere near as successful in the league as Bradley Beal. Weirdly, the best pick would have been Draymond Green. Imagine the uproar if Ernie had picked Draymond Green!?! LOL....

If he'd picked Noel in 2013, no one would have blinked. Many here would have applauded the pick -- yet it's obvious that Porter was a better choice.

So, I was wrong -- give Ernie some credit for each of those picks.

Anthony Davis?

[closg00]

Noel fell out of #1 b/c he was injured. Otto Porter was the consensus #3 throughout the pre-draft period. What was undeniably weird, however, was Cleveland taking Bennett first in the draft. If they'd taken Oladipo, Orlando might have taken Porter.

But Ernie gets no credit for taking Porter #3 given he was available.

As Nate has demonstrated, Beal certainly was consensus -- virtually universal -- to us in 2012. In fairness, I did worry Ernie would take Barnes. So if you want to give him credit for not being an idiot, sure, why not? Kinda minimal.

Beal was consensus AND we needed a SG, when we drafted Porter we needed a SF and he was ranked right up-there, another no-brainer.

We had Webster coming off his best season in the league and just acquired Ariza, but we needed a SF?

And we needed a SG because we restructured our roster just before the draft with the Ariza Nene trade, targeted Beal. Robinson was consensus ranked higher than Beal, Barnes was in the mix, Drummond was in the mix.

Just as Jan Vesely and Troy Brown were locked-in by the FO, the same was the case for Porter, we were locked-in on him and it was no surprise when we took him. Wall|Beal|Porter our future Big-3

This is close to a lock. Porter did not work out for Charlotte, a sign he is confident he will be a top-three pick. Anthony Bennett and Victor Oladipo will get some consideration here, but it would be very surprising if the Wizards passed on Porter, a versatile forward with an excellent mid-range game who will fit right into a young core headlined by John Wall and Bradley Beal.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2013mock_draft

https://www.si.com/nba/2013/06/27/nba-mock-draft-2013-nerlens-noel-ben-mclemore

[payitforward]

Moving this here from the TBJ thread, where it's a distraction...

Yes. It's easy to say in hindsight that Noel was an injury risk and passing on him was a no-brainer, but it was much harder to make that assessment in real time. Noel was #1 on every mock and his slide to #5 was pretty surprising. And again, it's worth noting that we had Ariza and Webster, both coming off perhaps their best seasons, while our center position was staffed with two guys on the downside of their careers and we had no PF (what many envisioned Noel would become).

I'm not saying Porter was a brilliant, incisive selection. I'm just saying he wasn't a total no-brainer. I think many GM's could have picked the wrong guy in that spot. I think the Porter selection earns EG more credit than either the Wall or Beal selections.

I agree with your last sentence.

&, since it's always possible to pick the wrong guy even near the top of the draft, it's unfair of me to deny Ernie at least some credit for those top picks. Maybe not for picking Wall, who really was universally thought to be the #1 guy, but at least some acknowledgement for picking Beal & Porter.

With the exception of Damien Lillard (but we weren't picking another PG) & Andre Drummond, no player in the rest of R1/2012 has been anywhere near as successful in the league as Bradley Beal. Weirdly, the best pick would have been Draymond Green. Imagine the uproar if Ernie had picked Draymond Green!?! LOL....

If he'd picked Noel in 2013, no one would have blinked. Many here would have applauded the pick -- yet it's obvious that Porter was a better choice.

So, I was wrong -- give Ernie some credit for each of those picks.

Anthony Davis?

Sorry if I was unclear. "In the rest of R1..." -- i.e. after our pick. No one he could have picked would have been better. He couldn't have picked Anthony Davis who went #1.

[montestewart]

bumped (tacit request)

The skillset of EGgo, one half of TerdEGgo. Discuss.

[payitforward]

Give Ernie some credit for picking up Thomas Bryant when LAL let him go.