The Case for being extremely patient with Trae Young's development

[Jamaaliver]

Oooh, boy...

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[Jamaaliver]

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[macd-gm]

Someone else mentioned this and it sure looks like Trae hit the weights hard the last few months. That will take some adjustment time with his shot.

[Jamaaliver]

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Trae Young finding success, but not with his long-range shooting

Yes, Young led the NCAA in both scoring and assists during his lone season at Oklahoma. However, it was his 30-foot 3s off the dribble that caught the nation's attention more so than Young's work distributing to an unheralded set of Sooners teammates. So it has been somewhat surprising that Young has found far more success as a playmaker than a scorer so far in the NBA, first at the Utah Jazz Summer League and now at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.

As I noted in last summer's study on the meaning of summer-league stats, shooting percentages have little if any predictive power when it comes to how players will perform the following regular season. The samples are simply too small. However, the quality of the shots Young is taking hasn't been any better than the results, suggesting his low-percentage shooting is more than just a fluke.

The same has been true for Young inside the arc, where he has been only slightly more accurate (10-of-31, 32 percent). At 6-foot-2, Young always has to finish over bigger defenders in the paint, and he struggled in that regard even against college opposition. Young's 53.5 percent shooting on attempts at the rim was lowest among NCAA players drafted in this year's first round, per Hoop-Math.com research.

[reazun]

Oooh, boy...

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Ill let it go, we got another lottery pick on top of it. If Luka turns out great, Trae busts, and we blow the Mavs pick. Yes, Ill be mad..but it doesnt seem like Trae will bust. He is just not shooting well so far in summer league. That doesnt put me into panic mode. Luka has not shown anything yet, and its a year before the Mavs pick comes into play. We are honestly in the same position that we were in on draft night.

[tbhawksfan1]

I'll never let it go. It's GM's job to be sucessful. He has to consistently make moves that improve the team enough to become one of the best or he won't be a good GM.

As a fan, my job is easier and harder. I get to srutinize his every move and if bad my only pleasure is being right in calling him out. Down side is, if bad I get bad Hawks. I hope, some day in my long life I get to see a good GM on the Hawks. Been here since the early 70's and haven't seen one yet.

[Jamaaliver]

Ill let it go, we got another lottery pick on top of it. If Luka turns out great, Trae busts, and we blow the Mavs pick. Yes, Ill be mad..but it doesnt seem like Trae will bust. He is just not shooting well so far in summer league. That doesnt put me into panic mode. Luka has not shown anything yet, and its a year before the Mavs pick comes into play. We are honestly in the same position that we were in on draft night.

I am mostly in agreement. I suspect passing on Doncic was an intentional decision NOT to put all of our eggs in any one basket this year. Get value for this pick. Acquire an extra asset and try again next draft.

With this draft being so stocked with talent, I'd have been okay being aggressive and bringing in more draft targets THIS year.

But overall, this is a sound approach.

The selection of Trae has left me wary. But getting him at #5 plus a future asset is much smarter than just picking him at #3. Tht would have been a hard pill to swallow.

[Jamaaliver]

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[reazun]

The selection of Trae has left me wary. But getting him at #5 plus a future asset is much smarter than just picking him at #3. Tht would have been a hard pill to swallow.

Oh man, I am still optimistic with Trae but if we just got him at 3 with no extra pick..just straight up selecting him with the third pick, while leaving less risky players on the board. I would be upset also. lol

[jayu70]

The selection of Trae has left me wary. But getting him at #5 plus a future asset is much smarter than just picking him at #3. Tht would have been a hard pill to swallow.

Oh man, I am still optimistic with Trae but if we just got him at 3 with no extra pick..just straight up selecting him with the third pick, while leaving less risky players on the board. I would be upset also. lol

The pick is what makes it palatable for me.
Draft night when the first rumor was a swap of #3 and Baze for #5 and Matthews, I was like:

[Jamaaliver]

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Stock Down: Trae Young

Haley O’Shaughnessy: The scrutiny of fifth-overall pick Trae Young was always going to be magnified after the Hawks’ gutsy decision to trade down two spots to select him instead of keeping Luka Doncic. Young, who led the nation in scoring as a freshman, already has the pressure of being dubbed the next Steph Curry.

Young, a coveted deep shooter out of Oklahoma, bombed, air-balled, and bricked 3-pointer after 3-pointer in Atlanta’s three games in Utah. He shot 12.5 percent from behind the arc, hitting only three of his 24 attempts; Young had the shot selection of Curry (from anywhere on the floor, with anyone in his face) with none of the follow-through.

In a five-game sample, Young has been the impressive playmaker he was in college, but unfortunately, his biggest selling point as a prospect hasn’t translated to the NBA yet.

[CP War Hawks]

Young is facing SL defenses that are prioritizing stopping him above all with NBA level coaching or close to it. The talent he's playing with is an extension of what he had in OK.

He should play better with Dedmon, Collins, Prince, Baze or Dennis. Main weaknesses are shot selection, ability to absorb contact, and ability to finish inside the paint. His release point is low, even on floaters which is worrisome.

If he comes off the bench, a guy like Bembry is a nearly perfect fit next to him. He can take some pressure off with ball handling and plays defense with a purpose.

[jayu70]

Young is facing SL defenses that are prioritizing stopping him above all with NBA level coaching or close to it. The talent he's playing with is an extension of what he had in OK.

He should play better with Dedmon, Collins, Prince, Baze or Dennis. Main weaknesses are shot selection, ability to absorb contact, and ability to finish inside the paint. His release point is low, even on floaters which is worrisome.

If he comes off the bench, a guy like Bembry is a nearly perfect fit next to him. He can take some pressure off with ball handling and plays defense with a purpose.

I said previously, i wished Bembry was playing SL for these exact reasons.

[Jamaaliver]

Young is facing SL defenses that are prioritizing stopping him above all with NBA level coaching or close to it. The talent he's playing with is an extension of what he had in OK.

because HE'S played so much time with Dorsey and Collins on the court...I'm not sure this is accurate.

In Utah, it was clear guys were targeting him. But a big part of his struggles there and in LV has been horrid shot selection.

His passing has improved and his defense has been solid. But his shooting woes are largely because he thinks he can hit every shot.

[CP War Hawks]

Young is facing SL defenses that are prioritizing stopping him above all with NBA level coaching or close to it. The talent he's playing with is an extension of what he had in OK.

because HE'S played so much time with Dorsey and Collins on the court...I'm not sure this is accurate.

In Utah, it was clear guys were targeting him. But a big part of his struggles there and in LV has been horrid shot selection.

His passing has improved and his defense has been solid. But his shooting woes are largely because he thinks he can hit every shot.

I'm a Collins guy but he's not a guy to take pressure off by beating double teams. I'm extra low on Dorsey, he's streaky, and those guys come and go.

Yes the team Young is playing on is more talented than the OK team but you have to prorate the talent. I'd contend this SL league team is bottom 5 in talent among participants especially without Bembry and Huerter.

[macd-gm]

Young is facing SL defenses that are prioritizing stopping him above all with NBA level coaching or close to it. The talent he's playing with is an extension of what he had in OK.

because HE'S played so much time with Dorsey and Collins on the court...I'm not sure this is accurate.

In Utah, it was clear guys were targeting him. But a big part of his struggles there and in LV has been horrid shot selection.

His passing has improved and his defense has been solid. But his shooting woes are largely because he thinks he can hit every shot.

I'm a Collins guy but he's not a guy to take pressure off by beating double teams. I'm extra low on Dorsey, he's streaky, and those guys come and go.

Yes the team Young is playing on is more talented than the OK team but you have to prorate the talent. I'd contend this SL league team is bottom 5 in talent among participants especially without Bembry and Huerter.

And with borderline nba players on your SL team you get a lot of guys trying to showcase themselves rather than actually playing good basketball.

[Jamaaliver]

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TY's passing/vision is top notch. His shooting is erratic, but impressive.

His defense has even been solid.

But man, he needs to develop a floater because his inside scoring is dreadful.

He does, at least, have an uncanny knack for drawing fouls.

[Jamaaliver]

Chris Vivlamore: What was the concern level with Trae Young got off to a slow start?



Travis Schlenk: There was no concern level when he got off to a bad start. I said the other day, he missed his first shot and everyone said ‘Oh, he’s a bust.’

We are not going to know who Trae Young is in the NBA for another two or three years. All these guys, it’s all about the work they put in from now until two or three years down the road.

myAJC

[td00]

TY very talented, and posting this after 6 SL games, where he is getting more comfortable with the process. This is going to be a process for him to become a professional and it will take beyond the 1st year to get there. TY will be the face of this franchise which is what TS wanted going forward.
We have alot to look forward to, but we will not be on the radar this season at all. We are going to be someone's 3rd team to facilitate a big trade at best.

[Jamaaliver]

NBA scouts break down best, worst of Trae Young's summer league performances

We watched Trae Young’s Hawks play nine games over the last two weeks. Young himself played three games each in Utah and Las Vegas, had a fourth in Vegas in which he hurt his quad and played only nine minutes and sat for Atlanta’s final two games for rest.

The final output: 15.1 points per game on 30.3 percent shooting, 27.3 percent shooting from the 3-point line, 5.7 assists and 3.7 turnovers per game...it’s fair to say that Young’s overall performance was underwhelming.

Hawks fans should not be in a panic, though. Not yet. But as one scout told Sporting News, “With Trae, I saw a lot to worry about. Some good things, for sure. But a lot to worry about.”

Sporting News

Spoiler:

Shooting

Young was terrible in Utah, shooting 3-for-24 from the 3-point line and 12-for-52 from the field. That improved (12-for-32 from the 3-point line, 18-for-47 from the field) when the Hawks moved on to Las Vegas, but Young still had his struggles finishing shots in the paint and was only so-so from the arc.

East scout: “I like the shot release. I like the ability to get a little space and get that shot off. That’s something we know he has. But I worry about his ability to finish in the paint. When he gets into the lane and breaks down a defense, he wants to pass. He has to be able to scare defenses into thinking he can make the floater or the layup in there, and he does not have that yet.

“A guy like Steph Curry makes 3s, but he also kills you with that one-hander in the lane. Trae needs that shot.”

West scout: “I don’t know why teams send young shooters to the Utah summer thing. That arena has the toughest sight lines, the toughest rims — it’s not a good place for a guy trying to make an impression with his shooting. I would not have let that be the start of Trae’s summer. You could tell it wore on him. But I like the fact that he bounced back in Vegas and was much more himself.”

Playmaking

Young averaged 8.7 assists at Oklahoma, but he had a penchant for turnovers, too (5.2 per game). That comes with the kind of defenses he saw, but he will need to take better care of the ball in the NBA.

East scout: “He has such terrific vision. He sees the floor very, very well. His ability to make full-court passes, to catch defenses napping — to me that is the foundation of his game, more than his scoring. If they put good shooters around him, and I like the Omari Spellman pick for this reason, he is going to create a lot of open shots for his teammates.”

West scout: “He was forcing things too much, and that might be the fact that he was trying to make an impression. But he forced too many passes into places where there was not enough room. I don’t think that will be a long-term problem, but he has to get to know his personnel, of course.

“If you are throwing a pocket pass to a big guy in the lane, you have to know whether the guy has the hands to catch and finish. He seems to think everyone out there has Jerry Rice’s hands. But he will learn his teammates’ strengths and weaknesses.”

Spoiler:

Pick-and-roll

Summer league tends to be heavy on pick-and-roll, as teams’ offensive playbooks are very limited. Young was frequently operating out of the pick-and-roll, with varying degrees of success.

East scout: “He is not an automatic when it comes to taking advantage of the mismatches after the switch. He would get a big guy on him and want to take a 3 too often. You can take a step-back 3 with a big guy on you, but you better make that shot.

“Obviously, he did not make many of them, and so he’s got to know that when his shot is not falling, drive the ball.”

West scout: “You know, I don’t expect that they will run a lot of pick-and-roll, even though I think they have pretty good personnel for it. Just look at (new head coach) Lloyd Pierce. He is coming from Philadelphia. They are not a pick-and-roll team (the Sixers ranked 30th in PNR frequency last season, at 10.8 percent of their plays). Travis Schlenk (the team’s GM) came from Golden State, and the Warriors don’t run pick-and-roll a whole lot (29th, at 10.9 percent).

“I think Trae can run the pick-and-roll, but he’d be much better in a ball-movement offense like in Philly or in Golden State. I am not sure how he runs the play is going to matter.”

Defense

Young’s defense was one of the main concerns about his game heading into the NBA Draft, and summer league did not do much to contain that concern.

East scout: “They’re going to give up a ton of points in Atlanta. I mean, you can get by Trae even with a pretty soft screen. He just never had to learn to fight through those, and I did not see anything to make me think he has made great strides on that.

“You’d better have a shot-blocker behind him, and they could lean on Dewayne Dedmon. And if you are going to have John Collins and Omari Spellman up front, neither is a great defensive player, and they’re going to be in trouble on that end.”

West scout: “I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He didn’t show anything great defensively this summer, but he will need to get into a system and learn it and do his job. They’re not going to ask him to do too much on that end.

“We talked to him during pre-draft (the Chicago combine in May), and he told us straight up that he was not a good defender at Oklahoma last year because he was not asked to be. So, he could get better there, or at least not be a huge negative.”