Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[JWizmentality]

I love that deal for Toronto. They weren't going anywhere with Lowry/DeRozan. Swinging for the fences was the right move.

Yeah, IF he plays. Which is a massive “if”

He'd be a moron to sit out the year if he's healthy.

Well, his behavior up until this point hasn't proved he's the sharpest tool in the box.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

I'd replace Jokic with Horford.

[verbal8]

That’s the equivalent to us giving up Beal, Oubre, and a 1st, for a guy that has no interest in being a raptor.

Awful

It's a little different. Beal is four years younger than DeRozan and a cleaner fit next to Aldridge, Murray, and the rest of SA's guys. He's also locked in for the same number of years as DeRozan. I'm willing to bet Beal's value is higher, which means a decent GM (which we don't have) could build a Kawhi-Beal deal without including Oubre and a 1st. Maybe one of those two, but not both.

With that said, I'd do Beal, Oubre, and a protected 1st for Kawhi and Green all day, but I'm not as high on our core as most.

I agree Beal should have more value than DeRozan. If the Wizards didn't offer Beal and a protected 1st, that was a big mistake. Given the contract situation with DeRozan and Green, I can see being reluctant to include Oubre for potential rentals.

[gtn130]

Read on Twitter

This is the type of team nerds on Reddit were creating in like 2015. Having zero players on the floor who are good/great at creating their own shot is entirely exploitable. Opponents could switch everything with impunity on defense.

[NatP4]

Lou Williams Demar Derozan Tobias Harris Carmelo Anthony Demarcus Cousins

Vs

Lowry-Roberson-Ingles/Covington-Porter-Horford

Who wins?

[gtn130]

Lou Williams Demar Derozan Tobias Harris Carmelo Anthony Demarcus Cousins

Vs

Lowry-Roberson-Ingles/Covington-Porter-Horford

Who wins?

I mean, the Lowry/Roberson role player team is clearly better, but that team would win like 45 games in the East and get blown out in the playoffs. The all chucker team would obviously be a dumpster fire.

[gtn130]

That’s the equivalent to us giving up Beal, Oubre, and a 1st, for a guy that has no interest in being a raptor.

Awful

It's a little different. Beal is four years younger than DeRozan and a cleaner fit next to Aldridge, Murray, and the rest of SA's guys. He's also locked in for the same number of years as DeRozan. I'm willing to bet Beal's value is higher, which means a decent GM (which we don't have) could build a Kawhi-Beal deal without including Oubre and a 1st. Maybe one of those two, but not both.

With that said, I'd do Beal, Oubre, and a protected 1st for Kawhi and Green all day, but I'm not as high on our core as most.

I agree Beal should have more value than DeRozan. If the Wizards didn't offer Beal and a protected 1st, that was a big mistake. Given the contract situation with DeRozan and Green, I can see being reluctant to include Oubre for potential rentals.

It's a 100% guarantee the Wizards did not make an offer like that, and had zero interest in acquiring Kawhi for one season. Leonsis has his core and CONTINUITY. No reason to the rock the boat when they can be the 6-8th seed every year.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

This is the type of team nerds on Reddit were creating in like 2015. Having zero players on the floor who are good/great at creating their own shot is entirely exploitable. Opponents could switch everything with impunity on defense.

I don't think anyone is arguing that this would be a great team (well, maybe PIF would). I'd especially be concerned about Roberson, whom I might replace with a guy like Danny Green. And as I said earlier, I'd replace Jokic with Horford.

Would a team of Lowry, Green, Ingles, Porter, Horford be that much worse than the Celtics of this season (sans Kyrie)? I think the pick-and-roll combo of Lowry/Horford is a good enough primary option to bend a defense, and once the defense scrambled, the perimeter shooting would be deadly.

[verbal8]

The all chucker team would obviously be a dumpster fire.

Give Ernie time.

[payitforward]

...I like Otto but not for his contract. Sending him alone would be unlikely to get a deal done. I rather get that off the books and take a chance of elevating the team to a higher level instead of staying as a subpar PO team every year.

WE ARE NOT SUBPAR BECAUSE OF OTTO PORTER

he is worth every single penny of that max deal. Basketball is not all about points per game and flashy highlights. Otto Porter is ... basically top 20 in the NBA for every advanced stat known to man. He's also only 24 years old.

He is EXACTLY what you want in a basketball player. ...

I often disagree with Nat (i.e. "often" = when he's wrong ), but he is 1000% right in this case. Otto Porter is the best player on the Washington Wizards. By a fair amount.

That doesn't mean he's the equal of Kawhi Leonard at his peak. But, trading him for an expiring Kawhi who is coming off injury would be an act of self-destruction beyond even what Ernie is foolish enough to contemplate.

The notion of adding a R1 pick & god knows what else is so off the wall that it indicates someone who really hasn't thought this through -- to put it nicely.

Now... this is all historical given Toronto's trade for Leonard. I haven't looked at that yet; I don't know what is involved in this move. But, I'm thankful that it means we won't be sending out our best player.

Note that I'd have been more than happy to trade Wall for Leonard. Just because Wall's Super Max hamstrings us so badly going forward.

[gtn130]

Read on Twitter

This is the type of team nerds on Reddit were creating in like 2015. Having zero players on the floor who are good/great at creating their own shot is entirely exploitable. Opponents could switch everything with impunity on defense.

I don't think anyone is arguing that this would be a great team (well, maybe PIF would). I'd especially be concerned about Roberson, whom I might replace with a guy like Danny Green. And as I said earlier, I'd replace Jokic with Horford.

Would a team of Lowry, Green, Ingles, Porter, Horford be that much worse than the Celtics of this season (sans Kyrie)? I think the pick-and-roll combo of Lowry/Horford is a good enough primary option to bend a defense, and once the defense scrambled, the perimeter shooting would be deadly.

Right. I agree with all that. My issue is that there's a difference between identifying five players who are underrated low USG players vs actually building a team exclusively with those players.

You need some guys who are capable of creating for themselves even at lower efficiency. Boston was getting a ton of value out of Rozier and Tatum ISOing in the playoffs. Houston's entire offense now is ISO. KD was ISOing for basically the entire playoffs.

[payitforward]

That’s the equivalent to us giving up Beal, Oubre, and a 1st, for a guy that has no interest in being a raptor.

Awful

It's a little different. Beal is four years younger than DeRozan and a cleaner fit next to Aldridge, Murray, and the rest of SA's guys. He's also locked in for the same number of years as DeRozan. I'm willing to bet Beal's value is higher, which means a decent GM (which we don't have) could build a Kawhi-Beal deal without including Oubre and a 1st. Maybe one of those two, but not both.

With that said, I'd do Beal, Oubre, and a protected 1st for Kawhi and Green all day, but I'm not as high on our core as most.

I agree Beal should have more value than DeRozan. If the Wizards didn't offer Beal and a protected 1st, that was a big mistake. Given the contract situation with DeRozan and Green, I can see being reluctant to include Oubre for potential rentals.

Beal & DeRozan are about the same in value except for Beal being so much younger -- which w/o question adds to Beal's value.

The difference is between the way the two franchises are being run these days. Toronto sees that their current path won't get them past Philly or Boston. If Leonard re-signs they've changed that dynamic. If not, then they've lightened their salary load & can rebuild.

The Wizards see that their current path won't get them past Philly or Boston (or Toronto), & the FO doesn't care.

Toronto's goal is to build a contending team. Our goal is to make the playoffs, where "it's all about getting hot at the right time," & anyway the seats are full -- what's the problem?

But, if the Wizards were run the way Toronto is run, it wouldn't have been Beal we'd have tried to deal to SA, it would have been Wall -- b/c if Kawhi didn't re-sign here & we still had Wall's Super Max on the books, we would not have lightened our salary load enough to rebuild.

Hey, maybe we did make that offer. & if so I'd take back the point about the franchises being run differently. We'll never know.

[gtn130]

Beal & DeRozan are about the same in value except for Beal being so much younger -- which w/o question adds to Beal's value.

I don't think this is true when you consider fit and versatility. Not many teams are looking for a DeRozan whereas nearly every team can easily add Beal to their roster since he's much better off ball, won't have to be the focal point of the offense and will be improving floor spacing for his team. There will always be an effectively larger market for someone like Beal than DeRozan despite their isolated values as basketball players being similar.

[Dark Faze]

The youth of Beal and Otto is as much an asset as it is a hindrance in regards to the front offices philosophy. By that I mean that it's easier to justify "run it back" culture when 2/3 of your core are under the age 26. "These guys can breakout anytime and get us over the hump." "Why rebuild when our core guys are so young?"

Compared to the Raps, where DeMar will be 29 by the start of the season and Lowry is 32.

[JWizmentality]

...I like Otto but not for his contract. Sending him alone would be unlikely to get a deal done. I rather get that off the books and take a chance of elevating the team to a higher level instead of staying as a subpar PO team every year.

WE ARE NOT SUBPAR BECAUSE OF OTTO PORTER

he is worth every single penny of that max deal. Basketball is not all about points per game and flashy highlights. Otto Porter is ... basically top 20 in the NBA for every advanced stat known to man. He's also only 24 years old.

He is EXACTLY what you want in a basketball player. ...

I often disagree with Nat (i.e. "often" = when he's wrong ), but he is 1000% right in this case. Otto Porter is the best player on the Washington Wizards. By a fair amount.

That doesn't mean he's the equal of Kawhi Leonard at his peak. But, trading him for an expiring Kawhi who is coming off injury would be an act of self-destruction beyond even what Ernie is foolish enough to contemplate.

The notion of adding a R1 pick & god knows what else is so off the wall that it indicates someone who really hasn't thought this through -- to put it nicely.

Now... this is all historical given Toronto's trade for Leonard. I haven't looked at that yet; I don't know what is involved in this move. But, I'm thankful that it means we won't be sending out our best player.

Note that I'd have been more than happy to trade Wall for Leonard. Just because Wall's Super Max hamstrings us so badly going forward.

You guys put way too much stock in advanced metrics.

[payitforward]

Read on Twitter

This is the type of team nerds on Reddit were creating in like 2015. Having zero players on the floor who are good/great at creating their own shot is entirely exploitable. Opponents could switch everything with impunity on defense.

I don't think anyone is arguing that this would be a great team (well, maybe PIF would). I'd especially be concerned about Roberson, whom I might replace with a guy like Danny Green. And as I said earlier, I'd replace Jokic with Horford.

Would a team of Lowry, Green, Ingles, Porter, Horford be that much worse than the Celtics of this season (sans Kyrie)? I think the pick-and-roll combo of Lowry/Horford is a good enough primary option to bend a defense, and once the defense scrambled, the perimeter shooting would be deadly.

Would it be a bad team? Well... it's only 5 guys, so lets see how many points they score per 48 minutes (i.e. game length).

Ok, I checked -- it's 100.5 points (I used Jokic not Horford). How many points did teams average last year across the league? 106.5. Uh oh. This is a terrible team -- they are going to go 0-82 (& get really tired playing all those minutes!).

But... wait a minute. This line-up is substantially better than average defensively, right? Lets say they are 10% better; that's not outlandish. So, now their opponents only score 96.5 ppg. This is a great team! They go 82-0 (still pretty tired, however... whew! that's a lot of minutes).

If there are any other questions you'd like to pose -- off-season style questions like the above -- don't hesitate; I'll be happy to provide answers as useful (definitive, I'd say -- either way) as the above.

[gtn130]

The youth of Beal and Otto is as much an asset as it is a hindrance in regards to the front offices philosophy. By that I mean that it's easier to justify "run it back" culture when 2/3 of your core are under the age 26. "These guys can breakout anytime and get us over the hump." "Why rebuild when our core guys are so young?"

Compared to the Raps, where DeMar will be 29 by the start of the season and Lowry is 32.

Indeed. The next 3-4 years are gonna be pretty boring.

[pcbothwel]

The youth of Beal and Otto is as much an asset as it is a hindrance in regards to the front offices philosophy. By that I mean that it's easier to justify "run it back" culture when 2/3 of your core are under the age 26. "These guys can breakout anytime and get us over the hump." "Why rebuild when our core guys are so young?"

Compared to the Raps, where DeMar will be 29 by the start of the season and Lowry is 32.

Indeed. The next 3-4 years are gonna be pretty boring.

ehhh. I'd rather run it back. Lebron left and we really dont know what Philly and Boston will be. You assume great, but Philly still hasnt been able to lure a prime FA like many thought with Lebron, PG13, or Kawhi. And while Boston has, it appears Kyrie has one foot out the door going to NY and Hayward has one foot in a cast.

The next year or two are the most opportune time to strike. If Philly and Boston truly take that step forward, we are better off rebuilding then anyway.

[gtn130]

The youth of Beal and Otto is as much an asset as it is a hindrance in regards to the front offices philosophy. By that I mean that it's easier to justify "run it back" culture when 2/3 of your core are under the age 26. "These guys can breakout anytime and get us over the hump." "Why rebuild when our core guys are so young?"

Compared to the Raps, where DeMar will be 29 by the start of the season and Lowry is 32.

Indeed. The next 3-4 years are gonna be pretty boring.

ehhh. I'd rather run it back. Lebron left and we really dont know what Philly and Boston will be. You assume great, but Philly still hasnt been able to lure a prime FA like many thought with Lebron, PG13, or Kawhi. And while Boston has, it appears Kyrie has one foot out the door going to NY and Hayward has one foot in a cast.

The next year or two are the most opportune time to strike. If Philly and Boston truly take that step forward, we are better off rebuilding then anyway.

The East becoming the JV league doesn't make Wizards basketball more exciting to me.

[Dat2U]

I swear people are more interested in watching us blow it up and play for lottery balls than trying to compete.

Trading Beal for Kawhi would have effectively done that. Kawhi was never going to put on a Wizards uniform. We'd end up selling Kawhi to LA for peanuts on the dollar.