Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[DusterBuster]

If portland did CJ, Collins and a 1st, I bet they could have trumped or at least made the decision tough for the Spurs. But with all the concerns around Kawhi's future in FA, his overall injury history and what he's gonna be like as a player coming back from a year off, I cant fault the Blazers for not wanting to take that risk.

[Oneluckbox]

If portland did CJ, Collins and a 1st, I bet they could have trumped or at least made the decision tough for the Spurs. But with all the concerns around Kawhi's future in FA, his overall injury history and what he's gonna be like as a player coming back from a year off, I cant fault the Blazers for not wanting to take that risk.

Yeah exactly. You do that trade and he bails after 1 season, you've pretty much left Dame by himself. Probably not the best course of action to keep Dame in Portland... A Dame-Kawhi-Nurkic combo would be intriguing but I still don't think that's enough to beat the Warriors, and that's assuming he's fully healthy. OKC took the gamble with PG and it worked, but I think Kawhi is deadset going to the Lakers in 2019 FA.

Why not just chill for now, wait till 2019-20 season when the Warriors might be done with their run, and you have Meyers/ET/Harkless as expirings and see if you can do something then? Dame getting older but he'll still only be 29.

[DusterBuster]

If portland did CJ, Collins and a 1st, I bet they could have trumped or at least made the decision tough for the Spurs. But with all the concerns around Kawhi's future in FA, his overall injury history and what he's gonna be like as a player coming back from a year off, I cant fault the Blazers for not wanting to take that risk.

Yeah exactly. You do that trade and he bails after 1 season, you've pretty much left Dame by himself. Probably not the best course of action to keep Dame in Portland... A Dame-Kawhi-Nurkic combo would be intriguing but I still don't think that's enough to beat the Warriors, and that's assuming he's fully healthy. OKC took the gamble with PG and it worked, but I think Kawhi is deadset going to the Lakers in 2019 FA.

Why not just chill for now, wait till 2019-20 season when the Warriors might be done with their run, and you have Meyers/ET/Harkless as expirings and see if you can do something then? Dame getting older but he'll still only be 29.

Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of a Dame/Kawhi/Nurk trio too. As one NBA reporter tweeted, the parallels with PG are obvious, but George went into that process with an open mind. There's nothing to suggest Kawhi is doing the same.

I don't think there's any chance the Warriors run will be over after next year. That said, your overall point seems to be the thought process for Olshey. They've basically conceded this upcoming season to the bin of "internal development" with the hope that one or two of the young guys has a really strong season so that next trade deadline or summer, they can package the young player(s) with their pick and one of the 2016ECs in a big trade next summer.

That's pretty much the only rational I can see for why they let Ed go in the manner they did. To allow for as much PT for young guys as possible.

[Village Idiot]

If portland did CJ, Collins and a 1st, I bet they could have trumped or at least made the decision tough for the Spurs. But with all the concerns around Kawhi's future in FA, his overall injury history and what he's gonna be like as a player coming back from a year off, I cant fault the Blazers for not wanting to take that risk.

Yeah exactly. You do that trade and he bails after 1 season, you've pretty much left Dame by himself. Probably not the best course of action to keep Dame in Portland... A Dame-Kawhi-Nurkic combo would be intriguing but I still don't think that's enough to beat the Warriors, and that's assuming he's fully healthy. OKC took the gamble with PG and it worked, but I think Kawhi is deadset going to the Lakers in 2019 FA.

Why not just chill for now, wait till 2019-20 season when the Warriors might be done with their run, and you have Meyers/ET/Harkless as expirings and see if you can do something then? Dame getting older but he'll still only be 29.

2020 is the year Anthony Davis becomes an UFA. Maybe he and Damian have a connection being from the same draft class.

[DusterBuster]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[Wizenheimer]

It looks like Kawhi is going to Toronto for DeRozen, Poetl and a very highly protected 1st. Maybe we should have put CJ on the table but if Leonard bolts to LA next year this deal doesn't turn out very good for Toronto.

I don't think Toronto cares that much; sure, they'd like to re-sign Kawhi. But if they can't, then they've taken the first step they were reportedly going to take anyway: dismantling the team they had that played well in the regular season but failed in the playoffs. They'd seen enough of the Lowry/Derozan back court and knew it was going to lead them nowhere.

they should get some props for the willingness to pull the plug on a good, but expensive team, and also being willing to take a big risk with high upside potential, even if unlikely

Also surprised to see San Antonio being willing to take on DeRozen with that contract. Maybe Pops sees an opportunity but I don't consider this a very good return for a guy who was a top 5 player a year ago.

sure sounds like this was about the best the Spurs could do. The Kawhi situation had degenerated a ton and that top-5 player value was long gone

also...the Raptors are getting Danny Green. That should not be overlooked, for either team

[Wizenheimer]

If portland did CJ, Collins and a 1st, I bet they could have trumped or at least made the decision tough for the Spurs. But with all the concerns around Kawhi's future in FA, his overall injury history and what he's gonna be like as a player coming back from a year off, I cant fault the Blazers for not wanting to take that risk.

I'm not going to fault Portland for not making that offer either

but I think you may be overrating Zach in relation to Jakob Poeltl. At this point, Poeltl is much better than Zach...by a lot. And he may have as much, or more, upside as Zach too. Further, he looks like just the kind of C that Popovich would want, either on his own or paired with Aldridge. My guess is the Spurs wanted Poeltl more than they wanted Derozan....or at least as much

as far as Portland's reluctance...my guess is Toronto was a lot further down their track and had decided their track was going nowhere. They were almost in a 'why-not-we-aren't-risking-anything' mode. That Toronto back court had been leading the Raptors for 6 years while Dame/CJ have been leading Portland for half that time.

all that said, assuming Kawhi quickly returns to form, a Blazer team of

Dame
Green
Kawhi
Aminu
Nurk

would have at least made next season interesting. Almost certainly better than what they will be running. But both Kawhi and Green will be UFA next July, and I think we know how that would go

Read on Twitter

?s=19

that's rather mild compared to Derozan:

In a story posted on his Instagram page on Wednesday morning, DeRozan wrote, "Be told one thing & the outcome another. Can't trust em. Ain't no loyalty in this game. Sell you out quick for a little bit of nothing... Soon you'll understand... Don't disturb..."

[Wizenheimer]

It’s a win for both teams. Toronto gets out of that awful Derozen contract. And who knows, maybe Leonard resigns. Stranger things have happened.

I'm curious

DeMar DeRozan - $27,739,975 $27,739,975 $27,739,975 = $83,219,925
CJ McCollum - $25,759,766 $27,556,959 $29,354,152 = $82,670,877

if Derozan's contract is awful, does that make CJ's contract awful as well?

Derozan sure appears to be the better player, although they both have flaws

San Antonio made the playoffs without KL. Now they traded him for a solid starter. They have improved over last year. Yeah the contract sucks, but they can ride out Derozen, Aldridge and Gasol for one last gasp of a run until they all expire.

maybe so, and they are replacing Green with Derozan (while losing Kyle Anderson). Jakob Poeltl might be a pretty significant addition too; I'd expect him to be the starter

[deanwoof]

San Antonio doing a rebuild on the fly. No Parker, no Ginobili, no Leonard. Aldridge should be next ... ring him home, sort of.

[Blaze the Nugz]

San Antonio doing a rebuild on the fly. No Parker, no Ginobili, no Leonard. Aldridge should be next ... ring him home, sort of.

I would bet SA's "rebuild" is more or less over. Why part with Aldridge when you just acquired a starting SG and C? Their lineup looks good enough to compete for a top 5 seed in the west.

Murray/Mills
DeRozan/Bellinelli
Gay/Bertrans
Aldridge/Gasol
Poetl/Gasol

[Blazers98]

It’s a win for both teams. Toronto gets out of that awful Derozen contract. And who knows, maybe Leonard resigns. Stranger things have happened.

I'm curious

DeMar DeRozan - $27,739,975 $27,739,975 $27,739,975 = $83,219,925
CJ McCollum - $25,759,766 $27,556,959 $29,354,152 = $82,670,877

if Derozan's contract is awful, does that make CJ's contract awful as well?

Derozan sure appears to be the better player, although they both have flaws

San Antonio made the playoffs without KL. Now they traded him for a solid starter. They have improved over last year. Yeah the contract sucks, but they can ride out Derozen, Aldridge and Gasol for one last gasp of a run until they all expire.

maybe so, and they are replacing Green with Derozan (while losing Kyle Anderson). Jakob Poeltl might be a pretty significant addition too; I'd expect him to be the starter

Nice comparison. I wouldn't use the word awful to describe CJs contract but I don't think it is an asset at least generally among the league. While there are a few teams that would covet CJ and take on his contract to take them to the next level (think Philly), I also think there are more teams out there that wouldn't take on that contract for what CJ bings to the table, at least after last year's slight regression. IF CJ can reverse course with his development and if the Blazers can make it to the second round, then that might make some GMs have a more favorable opinion of CJ and his contract.

[Blazers98]

San Antonio doing a rebuild on the fly. No Parker, no Ginobili, no Leonard. Aldridge should be next ... ring him home, sort of.

I would bet SA's "rebuild" is more or less over. Why part with Aldridge when you just acquired a starting SG and C? Their lineup looks good enough to compete for a top 5 seed in the west.

Murray/Mills
DeRozan/Bellinelli
Gay/Bertrans
Aldridge/Gasol
Poetl/Gasol

Spots 4-12 in the West are really tight. Four solid teams will not make it. In my opinion SA will have a hard enough time just making the playoffs in the ultra competitive West. One interesting thing about this new SA team is that they now have both of the big name hold overs of the mid range game in Aldridge and DeRozen. Both love the 10-15 foot jumper and the NBA has moved past that. Spacing will be very interesting in SA. Murray and Gasol are not 3 point shooters and Gay isn't the best 3 point shooter either. We are going to see some old school basketball in SA. Lots of pick and roles.

[HoopsFanAZ]

For the Blazers as currently constructed, CJ is better than DeRozan. 3pt.
The Raptors made a significant shift to increased 3 pt shooting and DeRozan was not a good fit. He was loyal and his relationship with Lowry and the fans is well documented. The effect on Lowry with DeRozan being lied to? The rebuild if/when KL leaves in a year with Lowry and others on their final year of contract? Tough sledding. It’s business, but it’s personal to a whole bunch of people, too ... Including players on the outside watching.

I’m not saying it was a bad move by the Raptors. They won the trade in the short term. They took the shot when it was there. The results are pending. A flip of a superior player to the West (LA) is easier now than with San Antonio ... who asked for a ridiculous return ... as Toronto will want to export KL to the West if that’s the eventuality.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Maybe I just haven’t seen it, but Toronto should’ve learned from Olshey’s time as a Clipper.

When the Lakers got blocked by Stern from acquiring Chris Paul, Olshey and the Clippers slipped in. The negotiations went on and on and looked like it wasn’t possible. Eric Gordon knew he was being discussed, but Olshey told him it wasn’t happening. Trade talks weren’t successful. Then New Orleans came back and cut the deal. At a team event, sitting on a bus, Eric Gordon found out he’d been traded and was NOT notified by Olshey, first. He’d been “lied to.” Olshey didn’t lie (as far as the reporting went), but he also didn’t notify Gordon that talks had picked back up and made sure EG heard it from him, first. It happens. But this stuff matters.

Olshey shouldn’t have said EG wasn’t getting traded.
“It looks like a no-go, but that could change. I’ll let you know as quickly as I can if it does.” Simple, right?

Ujiri shouldn’t have said DeRozan wasn’t getting traded.
No lawyer-speak-cute-qualifications, either. Honesty suffices.

[Wizenheimer]

Spots 4-12 in the West are really tight. Four solid teams will not make it. In my opinion SA will have a hard enough time just making the playoffs in the ultra competitive West. One interesting thing about this new SA team is that they now have both of the big name hold overs of the mid range game in Aldridge and DeRozen. Both love the 10-15 foot jumper and the NBA has moved past that. Spacing will be very interesting in SA. Murray and Gasol are not 3 point shooters and Gay isn't the best 3 point shooter either. We are going to see some old school basketball in SA. Lots of pick and roles.

interesting

so, am I correct in assuming you're putting the Lakers in the 3rd seed? Lebron is the biggest difference maker in the league but he doesn't walk on water and I see a lot of ways that Laker team could struggle and have trouble fitting together. And they may be as bad a 3 point shooting team as the Spurs, which you mentioned; so, them being 3rd seed isn't a done deal yet. But sure, put the Lakers there for the sake of discussion

4-12? I'm not sure there are really 9 other playoff level teams

Portland: Curry + Stauskas may be better than Napier + Pat but that's not certain. What is certain is that Meyers + Swanigan will not be as good as Davis; and that Collins still looks like a major project on offense and a weak rebounder. It's also unlikely the Blazers will have as good as injury luck as they did last season. Odds seem Portland will be a little worse

OKC: once they get the Melo issue resolved they may actually be a little better than last season; especially with having Roberson healthy. They won't have the flux of the PG question hanging over their head.

Utah: they should be better except that Gobert does seem a little fragile. But integrating Crowder into the rotation and a healthy Sefolosha should be a boost

New Orleans: they lose Cousins and Rondo. But the Blazers know Cousins didn't make the Pels better last season. Rondo is a loss but they did add Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton. They'll be tough again, but like Utah with Gobert, the Pels are welded to the fragile body of AD

San Antonio: big changes. They were a playoff team without Kawhi last season and they had that distraction. So, from last season, they replace Green with Derozan, and they add Jakob Poeltl. They also have Popovich. They might be worse, but they also might be a bit better

Minny: seems there's a little tension in Minny...KAT - Butler - Thibodeau. Still, before Butler was injured they were 3rd seed so, they could be back challenging for HCA

Denver: two straight seasons being eliminated from the playoffs by losses in game 82...ouch! They shipped out Chandler and Faried so their rotation is thinned; and they likely won't be getting any help from their 14th pick. But they should have a full season of Millsap. about the same?

so...are there any playoff contenders in Memphis, Dallas, Phoenix, or LAC?

*Memphis has talent, but much of it is old and fragile. Good injury luck could maker them competitive.

* Dallas sucked last season and it seems unlikely that Deandre Jordan & Luca Doncic will be able to add 20 wins to last season's record. Dirk isn't getting younger either. Carlisle is a great coach though

* LAC replaced Jordan with Gortat and added Mbah a Moute. They also should get healthy seasons from Beverly and Bradley. And they won 42 games last season. I can see them improving on that, a little, but I could also see them falling off

* Phoenix added the number 1 pick and that's usually worth several wins; and they added Ariza. But they were a 21 win team last season. I have a hard time seeing them move into playoff contention

what I can see is that with the emergence of the Lakers, no real fall-off in any of last year's playoff contenders, and the potentiall improvements of Memphis, Dallas, & Phoenix, the pretenders in the WC could really chew each other up and the median of 48 wins for the 3-8 seeds last season could fall to 45 wins next year...maybe even lower. It's going to be a bloodbath. The funny thing is that the team that may fall off of last season the most is Houston

I'm sure there are all kinds of factors I'm missing that might push teams up or down relative to last season

[d-train]

Spurs are going to make the playoff. Spurs have a good chance of finishing better than Blazers.

[d-train]

Portland: Curry + Stauskas may be better than Napier + Pat but that's not certain. What is certain is that Meyers + Swanigan will not be as good as Davis; and that Collins still looks like a major project on offense and a weak rebounder. It's also unlikely the Blazers will have as good as injury luck as they did last season. Odds seem Portland will be a little worse

Blazers will be a better team but they might not win more games and they certainly will have a hard time finishing 3rd or better.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Wiz, you may have “missed” on some factors, sure. But it’s a fair synopsis. And not that long.

Injury history of major/crucial players and age are significant.
1. GSt — no question. Deeeeeep.
2. Houston — but their D looks worse, Capella wants his, and Paul gets hurt too much and is a year older not better. Still at 2 or 3.
3. Portland — could slip a bit but not so much about health as young backups and the 3 remains unsettled. I actually think they’ll be a better team than last year and hopefully not be 4th or 5th seed. 3rd or 6th is the sweet spot.

As for the rest:
The Lakers should be no lower than 5th and as high as 3rd. Lebron, Rondo, veterans and talented youth.
Minnesota has plenty of talent. It depends on Jimmy Butler.
OKC has 2 stars. It depends on Steven Adams. He’s their muscle. Crucial.
Utah knows who they are at 6th to 8th.

Denver needs to have a player/leader who will get more from everyone. Together. Defensive connectedness. They have talent. Not seeing that leader, yet. They’re close 7th to 9th.
New Orleans without Rondo is worse at guard and they won’t “scare” or intimidate good teams. AD keeps them in the conversation. I’m guessing they’re number 8 or 9.
San Antonio with no Leonard, Green, Anderson, or Parker. That’s a significant turnover. Gasol another year older. Poetl will help. DeRozan will help. 3 point shooting and defense? Overall, they’re hanging onto significance. Last year’s performance was one heckuva magic trick to do that well. They have 2 midrange all stars. They may miss the playoffs. Their PGs and back ups have to step up.

Dallas? Stuck at not yet rebuilding. Memphis? Health. The Clippers? Transitioning. Sacramento? Big hopes last offseason. Less so, now.

Phoenix? Point guard play? Knight’s injuries and a French rookie. New Euro coach. Booker with the $$$$. His team. Ariza, Josh Jackson (more a 3 than 2), Bridges, Warren at SF? Warren to PF where Chriss and Bender aren’t getting it done, and Warren doesn’t shoot 3’s. And 2 backup centers gone with Chandler remaining behind #1. Better than last year? Of course. They could start a SG, 3SFs and a C.
They could get to 10th but I’d say 12th. 2 years to the playoffs if it breaks right. Watch out for them making trades.

[d-train]

San Antonio doing a rebuild on the fly. No Parker, no Ginobili, no Leonard. Aldridge should be next ... ring him home, sort of.

I would bet SA's "rebuild" is more or less over. Why part with Aldridge when you just acquired a starting SG and C? Their lineup looks good enough to compete for a top 5 seed in the west.

Murray/Mills
DeRozan/Bellinelli
Gay/Bertrans
Aldridge/Gasol
Poetl/Gasol

Spurs should be the favorites to be the 3rd seed in the west. They could have challenged Rockets with Kawhi, but without Kawhi, they are still very good and have a chance to get better in the years that follow with DeRozan and good draft picks.

Edit: Lakers will also challenge for the 3rd seed. The best the Blazers can do is 5th seed. And, to get 5th seed we really have to improve through experience and continuity.

[Wizenheimer]

OK...OKC just traded Melo for Dennis Schroder and Mike Muscala

I think Melo was a mini-disaster for them. Muscala will be a help...but Schroder? I guess maybe that will work, but it also could be awkward

not sure this makes them better but it will give them some depth