Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[d-train]

OK...OKC just traded Melo for Dennis Schroder and Mike Muscala

I think Melo was a mini-disaster for them. Muscala will be a help...but Schroder? I guess maybe that will work, but it also could be awkward

not sure this makes them better but it will give them some depth

Good deal for the Hawks. OKC should have just waived and stretched Melo.

Edit: The only way OKC can recover from this is to find a taker for Schroders contract.

[d-train]

I think Melo was a mini-disaster for them. Muscala will be a help...but Schroder? I guess maybe that will work, but it also could be awkward

not sure this makes them better but it will give them some depth

OKC gets Schroder and Cabarrot.

Melo wasn't a disaster at all. It was stupid to not resign Taj Gibson. The benefits of adding PG and Melo did not negate the loss of Gibson. It would be a financial disaster to keep Melo.

[Ripcity4life]

D-train please tell me you just screwing with wiz cause Melo is a walking disaster at this point in his career and to say other wise is kind of silly, I pray that the Rockets get Melo so the rockets implode behind the fact that he SUCKS for the most part and he will hamper any growth by players like Capela and others.

[Blazers98]

Spots 4-12 in the West are really tight. Four solid teams will not make it. In my opinion SA will have a hard enough time just making the playoffs in the ultra competitive West. One interesting thing about this new SA team is that they now have both of the big name hold overs of the mid range game in Aldridge and DeRozen. Both love the 10-15 foot jumper and the NBA has moved past that. Spacing will be very interesting in SA. Murray and Gasol are not 3 point shooters and Gay isn't the best 3 point shooter either. We are going to see some old school basketball in SA. Lots of pick and roles.

interesting

so, am I correct in assuming you're putting the Lakers in the 3rd seed? Lebron is the biggest difference maker in the league but he doesn't walk on water and I see a lot of ways that Laker team could struggle and have trouble fitting together. And they may be as bad a 3 point shooting team as the Spurs, which you mentioned; so, them being 3rd seed isn't a done deal yet. But sure, put the Lakers there for the sake of discussion

4-12? I'm not sure there are really 9 other playoff level teams

Portland: Curry + Stauskas may be better than Napier + Pat but that's not certain. What is certain is that Meyers + Swanigan will not be as good as Davis; and that Collins still looks like a major project on offense and a weak rebounder. It's also unlikely the Blazers will have as good as injury luck as they did last season. Odds seem Portland will be a little worse

OKC: once they get the Melo issue resolved they may actually be a little better than last season; especially with having Roberson healthy. They won't have the flux of the PG question hanging over their head.

Utah: they should be better except that Gobert does seem a little fragile. But integrating Crowder into the rotation and a healthy Sefolosha should be a boost

New Orleans: they lose Cousins and Rondo. But the Blazers know Cousins didn't make the Pels better last season. Rondo is a loss but they did add Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton. They'll be tough again, but like Utah with Gobert, the Pels are welded to the fragile body of AD

San Antonio: big changes. They were a playoff team without Kawhi last season and they had that distraction. So, from last season, they replace Green with Derozan, and they add Jakob Poeltl. They also have Popovich. They might be worse, but they also might be a bit better

Minny: seems there's a little tension in Minny...KAT - Butler - Thibodeau. Still, before Butler was injured they were 3rd seed so, they could be back challenging for HCA

Denver: two straight seasons being eliminated from the playoffs by losses in game 82...ouch! They shipped out Chandler and Faried so their rotation is thinned; and they likely won't be getting any help from their 14th pick. But they should have a full season of Millsap. about the same?

so...are there any playoff contenders in Memphis, Dallas, Phoenix, or LAC?

*Memphis has talent, but much of it is old and fragile. Good injury luck could maker them competitive.

* Dallas sucked last season and it seems unlikely that Deandre Jordan & Luca Doncic will be able to add 20 wins to last season's record. Dirk isn't getting younger either. Carlisle is a great coach though

* LAC replaced Jordan with Gortat and added Mbah a Moute. They also should get healthy seasons from Beverly and Bradley. And they won 42 games last season. I can see them improving on that, a little, but I could also see them falling off

* Phoenix added the number 1 pick and that's usually worth several wins; and they added Ariza. But they were a 21 win team last season. I have a hard time seeing them move into playoff contention

what I can see is that with the emergence of the Lakers, no real fall-off in any of last year's playoff contenders, and the potentiall improvements of Memphis, Dallas, & Phoenix, the pretenders in the WC could really chew each other up and the median of 48 wins for the 3-8 seeds last season could fall to 45 wins next year...maybe even lower. It's going to be a bloodbath. The funny thing is that the team that may fall off of last season the most is Houston

I'm sure there are all kinds of factors I'm missing that might push teams up or down relative to last season

Yes, I would put the Lakers at #3. It is LeBron and he does have some talent around him. I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if there are more trades where the Lakers get more talent.

OK, maybe I need to recount:) I would say 11 teams have a chance at making the playoffs, not 12.

GSW
HOU
LA
These 3 teams will make the playoffs barring any dramatic injuries.
_______________
PDX
Utah
OKC
SA
NO
Minny

Denver-missed the playoffs by 1 game each year of the past two years They are young and will improve as individuals as well as gel together as a team. Look out for IT

Memphis-Yes, I would include Memphis. With the exception of last year Memphis has consistantly made the playoffs. Conly is back, they made a few small upgrades like Anderson and drafting Jackson. And we all know their bench players got plenty of PT last year to help them "improve"....LOTS of PT. I would admit Memphis is the least likely of those 11 to get into the playoffs but I would not count them out.

My dark horse candidate for a very outside shot at the playoffs is Dallas. It's not like they will be trying to lose games this year....right Cuban?

[d-train]

D-train please tell me you just screwing with wiz cause Melo is a walking disaster at this point in his career and to say other wise is kind of silly, I pray that the Rockets get Melo so the rockets implode behind the fact that he SUCKS for the most part and he will hamper any growth by players like Capela and others.

He's overpaid but not a bad player. He's still a very capable NBA player that could contribute to a contender. Hawks should waive him.

[d-train]

Yes, I would put the Lakers at #3. It is LeBron and he does have some talent around him. I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if there are more trades where the Lakers get more talent.

LeBron could win 60 regular season games with summer league talent. But, LeBron hasn't been focused on winning regular season games for awhile now.

[zzaj]

OK...OKC just traded Melo for Dennis Schroder and Mike Muscala

I think Melo was a mini-disaster for them. Muscala will be a help...but Schroder? I guess maybe that will work, but it also could be awkward

not sure this makes them better but it will give them some depth

You know a bit OT, but it occurs to me that Muscala might be the closest thing to Meyers that there is in the NBA. Although, I would guess Moose is paid a lot less...

[Dame Lizard]

Spurs are going to make the playoff. Spurs have a good chance of finishing better than Blazers.

I'd be surprised if the Spurs don't finish higher in the rankings than Portland.

Pop works wonders and their team may look better than last year, considering Kawhi didn't play.

[Wizenheimer]

a bit OT, but:

Read on Twitter

[d-train]

Had OKC waived and stretched Melo, they would have saved $92M in taxes just this year. By taking Schroder's salary instead, they lose $24M of those savings this year alone. If they can dump most of Schroder's salary, maybe they can do better. But, I would think it would be a 4 team deal if that was doable.

[kdawg32086]

A couple of ideas for trying to go "all-in" on Lillard/CJ:

Sending Turner, Leonard, and Baldwin to Atlanta for Bazemore and Plumlee.

Sending Aminu, Harkless, and Collins to San Antonio for Aldridge.

[d-train]

A couple of ideas for trying to go "all-in" on Lillard/CJ:

Sending Turner, Leonard, and Baldwin to Atlanta for Bazemore and Plumlee.

Sending Aminu, Harkless, and Collins to San Antonio for Aldridge.

Blazers are all-in on Lillard/CJ without any trade. Especially, a trade that makes them worse. Maybe, Aldridge would make them better this season, but that's not certain. Blazers really don't need Aldridge's mid-range offense with CJ providing that role. And, Blazers have Nurkic's offense at the rim. I don't believe Blazers would want to trade Collins, Aminu, and Harkless for a player that doesn't fill a need, even a great player. Blazers need a play maker.

[cucad8]

A couple of ideas for trying to go "all-in" on Lillard/CJ:

Sending Turner, Leonard, and Baldwin to Atlanta for Bazemore and Plumlee.

Sending Aminu, Harkless, and Collins to San Antonio for Aldridge.

Lillard/?
CJ/Curry/
Bazemore/?
Aldridge/?
Nurkic/Plumlee

Bazemore and Aldridge and no bench is going all in? yuck

[Blazers98]

Yes, I would put the Lakers at #3. It is LeBron and he does have some talent around him. I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if there are more trades where the Lakers get more talent.

LeBron could win 60 regular season games with summer league talent. But, LeBron hasn't been focused on winning regular season games for awhile now.

Very true. He could very well be focused on just getting the Lakers into a decent playoff position like 3-6. Just good enough so that they don't play GSW/HOU the first round. But they will make the playoffs.

[Renegade]

LeBron could win 60 regular season games with summer league talent. But, LeBron hasn't been focused on winning regular season games for awhile now.

While with the Cavaliers the last four seasons they won 53-57-51-50. I guess Cleveland should have rid themselves of the NBA talent they had and stocked up on summer league talent.

[Sinobas]

I predict Portland misses the playoffs this year. We'd have missed it last year if not for the incredible 13 game winning streak we went on (and the luck of having few injuries plus running into many teams with key injuries).

The loss of Ed Davis is going to hurt. He was the difference maker in many a game last year, getting that key offensive rebound/putback. Nurk is prone to foul trouble, and our front court is really going to suffer I think without having Ed around.

[acidfrehley]

After all we saw this offseason its clear to me that this season is all about setting up for the next one.

Olshey clearly realized that Turner and Meyers contracts need to be traded. So he made the most to make them look good this season. Our second unit is Turner surrounded by shooters. I really believe that the plan could work well and make ET having a ton of assists. It could also sell Meyers as a solid stretch big. And then we could possibly move the two of them by the next draft.

Its also a year of developing our young core.

I also think that we can still make the playoffs.

If all those things pan out I guess I'd be okay with it. (bumping ET and Meyers value to trade them, developing young guys etc).

[cucad8]

Idea I threw out elsewhere:

Turner and a couple of 2nds to Sacramento for Koufos

couple of 2nds was the cost for moving extra Mozgov year of similar money, so going off of that similar price point. Sacramento is under the salary floor this season, so the additional salary they take on THIS season, they would have been paying out anyways. They have no need for Koufos, with their glut of bigs.
We add a decent backup 5, and also get out of the LT

[Wizenheimer]

After all we saw this offseason its clear to me that this season is all about setting up for the next one.

Olshey clearly realized that Turner and Meyers contracts need to be traded. So he made the most to make them look good this season. Our second unit is Turner surrounded by shooters. I really believe that the plan could work well and make ET having a ton of assists. It could also sell Meyers as a solid stretch big. And then we could possibly move the two of them by the next draft.

I guess the question I have is trade Turner & Meyers for what?

they aren't going to be traded for better players; and they are very likely not going to be traded for significantly less returning salary. Some people seem to think there's some magic threshold crossed when they become expiring contracts, but expiring contracts don't have the value they used to have and the truth is, they never had that much value to start with, not if the goal is to clear salary or make a better team

besides all that, while Olshey was an idiot GM in 2016, he had plenty of company. The sudden jump in available money means that the contracts of Turner and Meyers are lost in a sea of bad contracts, many on better players, and most will probably being shopped at the same time Portland is trying to unload their bad contracts; there are a ton of below average to horrible 2 year deals out there:


Hassan Whiteside $25,434,263 $27,093,018
Chandler Parsons $24,107,258 $25,102,511
Harrison Barnes $24,107,258 $25,102,512
Kevin Love $24,119,025 $25,595,700
Danilo Gallinari $21,587,579 $22,615,559
Serge Ibaka $21,666,667 $23,271,604
George Hill $19,000,000 $18,000,000
Ryan Anderson $20,421,546 $21,264,635
Allen Crabbe $18,500,000 $18,500,000
Joakim Noah $18,530,000 $19,295,000
Luol Deng $18,000,000 $18,810,000
Evan Turner $17,868,852 $18,606,557
Bismack Biyombo $17,000,000 $17,000,000
Kent Bazemore $18,089,887 $19,269,662
Ian Mahinmi $15,944,154 $15,450,051
Tristan Thompson $17,469,565 $18,539,130
Pau Gasol $16,000,000 $16,000,000
Timofey Mozgov $16,000,000 $16,720,000
Mason Plumlee $12,917,808 $14,041,096
J.R. Smith $14,720,000 $15,680,000
Brandon Knight $14,631,250 $15,643,750
Marvin Williams $14,087,500 $15,006,250
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $13,000,000 $13,000,000
Miles Plumlee $12,500,000 $12,500,000
Solomon Hill $12,752,928 $13,258,781
Courtney Lee $12,253,780 $12,759,670
Jordan Clarkson $12,500,000 $13,437,500
Meyers Leonard $10,595,506 $11,286,515
Matthew Dellavedova $9,607,500 $9,607,500
E'Twaun Moore $8,808,685 $8,664,928
D.J. Augustin $7,250,000 $7,250,000
Kyle Korver $7,560,000 $7,500,000
Langston Galloway $7,000,000 $7,333,333
Lance Thomas $7,119,650 $7,583,975

players like Plumlee & Mozgov have been traded several times, it seems, but it has always been for either another equally bad player, or a little better player with a worse contract. Neither one of those outcomes helps Portland

I'm guessing nothing will change. Playing more of Turner and Meyers isn't going to elevate their value. The NBA knows what they are. And it isn't going to help Portland win games, not when the result is Meyers playing and Davis leaving. Just the opposite. And in order to get any significant salary relief or talent upgrade, Portland will still have to attach positive assets in order to move either of them.

[Wizenheimer]

Idea I threw out elsewhere:

Turner and a couple of 2nds to Sacramento for Koufos

couple of 2nds was the cost for moving extra Mozgov year of similar money, so going off of that similar price point. Sacramento is under the salary floor this season, so the additional salary they take on THIS season, they would have been paying out anyways. They have no need for Koufos, with their glut of bigs.
We add a decent backup 5, and also get out of the LT

what was DH's salary this season? I can't find it but I think about 24M

on one hand, there was a 1-year/24M exchange for 2-years/33m exchange

in the Turner case it would be a 1-year/ 8.7M exchange for a 2-year/36.5M exchange. Even with the salary floor factor those two scenarios seem way out of balance.

I'd also think that if the Kings were going to sell their cap-space based upon the floor, they may be able to do quite a bit better than that as the deadline approaches.