Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[trast66]

I think u missed the point...
That’s y I used kelly as an example...
Otto isn’t aggressive and it’s detrimental to the team...he plays like a Kyle Korver when he have a far more versatile skill set...
He doesn’t take advantage of mismatches
Doesn’t attack an open lane frequently enough
If he isn’t open he won’t shoot or try to make a move he jus pass it back..
Yea it’s good to be mindful but sometimes u have to take a chance on yourself and believe u can score

Lets just agree that it would be better if Otto took more advantage of mismatches, if he attacked an open lane more frequently, if he added to his repertoire of moves. I have no problem with that.

The thing is... those same statements will be true of absolutely any player. That's obvious, right? & it's also obvious that Kelly Oubre isn't anywhere near as good a player as Otto Porter, right? Not on a remotely similar tier.

You tell how good a player is by looking at what he does -- not by what other things you'd like him to do. & when you look at what a player does in order to understand how good he is, you do not stop w/ what he does to score the ball.

Here's what Otto Porter did in 2017-18: he grabbed 50% more rebounds than an average wing, he turned the ball over 60% as often as an average wing, he blocked 1/3 more shots than an average wing, & he got 45% more steals than an average wing.

While he did all this he also scored pretty well in my book: an average wing posts 48% on 2pt shots; Otto scored sank 2 point shots at a 53.7% clip. An average wing shoots 36% on 3 pt. attempts. Otto shot them at over 44%. An average wing shoots just over 79% on FTs. Otto shot just under 83%. And, of course, while doing all this stuff Otto also outscored an average wing by @ 11%.

You bringing up numbers thats not relevant. Otto mindset scoring wise is his bbiggest weakness and its a big weakness to have...
For a player to be that efficent and young and not scoring atleast 20 pts per game is a problem.
And its not on wall or brooks because they give otto the ball...

Il sum it up like this...is this the best otto will be?
Is his ceiling kyle korver or klay thompsom

Don’t hate me, but I think Otto is at least as good if not better than Klay.

[NatP4]

You like CCJ have no idea what your talking about.

That run was mainly on the surge in play of Markieff over a 2 month span. Gortat played well too. But once Markieff went from playing like an all-star to being the regular Markieff once again our play fell off.

Imagine running a replacement level PF out there and suddenly getting all-star quality play for 25 games or so. That's basically what happened.

You put a PF that's willing to defend next to a rim protector at C and suddenly perimeter defenders can look competent.

I literally said “Morris didn’t suck” in that stretch. I do know EXACTLY what I’m talking about. Wall was 18th in DRPM at the trade deadline, and dropped to 58th for point guards in the 20 some games after all star break. Brooks abandoned the small ball lineup that saved the season for us after the terrible start and replaced it with Jason Smith at PF, which was horrible. Bojan also cut into oubre’s minutes.

Just so you know, Wall had a sub 110 d rating in every month but March and April, where it skyrocketed to 114, he also had a negative net rating in both.

Why don’t you try this thing called “not throwing personal insults at anyone not slobbing on John Wall” and do some research. Oh yeah, that right, it’s actually everyone else’s fault that walls defense fell off.

Imagine actually thinking one players play is the lone reason for a team that won 18 of 21 turning into a sub .500 team after the trade deadline, and having the audacity to claim other people have no clue what they’re talking about.

RPM works differently than you suggest. Just because a player's RPM dropped or increased during the season doesnt necessarily mean a change in performance. It means there's a better sample size to judge their impact. Wall may have defended poorly all year long... however it takes over the course of an entire season for RPM to accurately show that.

For example A 20-game sample size for RPM honestly isn't very reliable. A 40-game sample is hit & miss. The creator of the stat pretty much said it takes about of season worth of games for the stat to normalize.

D-rating doesnt measure individual defense - it measures the 5-man unit on the floor while Wall is on the floor.

I criticize Wall when warranted. You find ways to criticize players you like and you find ways to prove the players you like are actually better than they are.

So Wall sucked all year on defense and his defensive rating still fell off a cliff in the final 2 months of the season. Is there any type of point you have to make or do you really honestly think that Morris' play is the reason this team fell off hard after the trade deadline? That is just completely wrong, they literally changed the roster and lineups.


I literally do not give a s*** if Wall plays free safety defense and saves energy, I listed a handful of factors, the number 1 reason was using Jason Smith at the 4 (sometimes even starting him) and abandoning the small ball lineup that turned the season around.

Just look at the numbers, Dat: pre all star Wall Beal Oubre Porter Gortat played 187 minutes and had an absurd 22.2 net rating. post all star, the lineup literally played 13 total minutes. Now tell me, how the flying f*** did that not influence results more than Morris??

Oh the jason smith at PF with the starters lineup??? pre all star it only got about 53 minutes, and posted a terrible -24.2 net rating. (PIF IMPERSONATION, this was when i was complaining about Jason Smith while 90% of this board was praising him and calling for more PT for the guy) Post all star break? that lineup got 80 minutes, and still posted a -8.6 net rating.

that is completely awful. The starters went from +13 to -4 net pre/post all star. Morris went from +7.5 to -5.1 but Wall also went from +6.8 to -2.5.

Someone has to explain to me why that small ball lineup was replaced with a Jason Smith lineup??? And why was it replaced this year by a Mike Scott lineup?? that is our problem, i'm not trying to act like Walls defense is our main issue.

it's true, if we had a PF that could actually switch and play defense and rebound and space the floor, Wall could play his free safety style of defense, but we choose to play scrubs instead. Don't tell me I don't know what I'm talking about though. I haven't even been hating on Wall at all so I don't know how your fanboy meter was set off.

[NatP4]

Kyle Korver is really good.

[payitforward]

I have a hard time believing, on a team with not one but two All Stars, that our best player is neither one of them.

All-Stars - Counting stats
Winning Players - Efficiency

The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. In terms of efficiency, if you're looking at PER, the top 10 is filled with All Stars: http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics. John Wall makes an appearance at #49, followed by Beal #56 and Otto #57.

Sigh... do you know how PER is calculated? Well, just for starters -- it's calculated off of "counting stats" & nothing else. I.e. it's a roll up of counting stats where each stat is given a certain weight.

The problem is that it the way PER is calculated, the more a player shoots -- at virtually any FG% -- the higher his PER is. Hence, because PER doesn't penalize a player for missing shots, it overrates players who score a lot but not efficiently. Of course it also rates guys high who score a lot of points efficiently as well (as it should!). & that's why you see terrific players at the top. Another way to say this: PER is accurate for the highly efficient guys who shoot a lot -- the very best players in the league. It's not accurate for anyone else.

PER rates Beal way too high -- because he takes a lot of shots. It rates Otto way too low -- because he doesn't take a lot of shots.

I can't get the ESPN list, but I bet it leaves out players w/ very few minutes, b/c the list at https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_advanced.html has Wall at 67 & Beal/Porter in order a few further down.

The fact that PER has Beal & Porter so close is a dead giveaway about what's wrong with it as a rollup. Bradley Beal wasn't nearly as productive this year as Otto Porter.

[payitforward]

...People here rave about Otto's efficiency. And, yes, going 8 for 12 with 1.0 turnover is efficient.

But I think the Zards would be better off with the Otto who goes 12 for 18 with 1.5 turnovers and puts pressure on defenses by hunting for shots (maybe even forcing shots) from time to time. That Otto needs to improve his ability to put the ball on the floor and create for himself.

Certainly 12-18 is better than 8-12 -- enough better that even an extra 1/2 turnover wouldn't bring them equal. I.e. that's *more efficient* than 8-12 w/ 1 TO, not less eficient.

But if you get from 12 shots to 18 by hunting for shots, forcing shots, you won't maintain that 4-6 shooting on the extra 6 shots.

Yet, that's not the only way to get Otto more shots, is it? &, you are certainly right that if a guy shoots 44% on 3s & 54% on 2s... well, yeah, you do want him to take more shots!

But that's not always on him. Shots aren't free. There are only so many shots. Consider that, leaving aside FTs, per 48 minutes Otto posted 20.33 points on 17.5 shots, while Brad posted 25.19 points on 23.9 shots. In other words, to get his last 4.86 points required Brad to take 6.4 extra shots. That's an eFG% of just under 38%. Even taking into account that "forcing" also gets Brad a just under 3 more FTAs than Otto per 40 minutes, his effectiveness is low on that extra scoring activity. He's helping his team lose not win by using those extra possessions.

So, there's no question, the Zards would be better off if Otto took more shots & Beal took fewer shots.

As to pressure on the defense: a guy who makes his shots at the clip Otto makes them definitely puts pressure on the defense. They are working hard to limit his open shots, b/c if they're open they go in.

[NatP4]

I wish Otto got 18 shots per game. I would be thrilled because that means we are playing really good basketball and getting rebounds, because Otto never takes a single bad shot.

[deneem4]

Lets just agree that it would be better if Otto took more advantage of mismatches, if he attacked an open lane more frequently, if he added to his repertoire of moves. I have no problem with that.

The thing is... those same statements will be true of absolutely any player. That's obvious, right? & it's also obvious that Kelly Oubre isn't anywhere near as good a player as Otto Porter, right? Not on a remotely similar tier.

You tell how good a player is by looking at what he does -- not by what other things you'd like him to do. & when you look at what a player does in order to understand how good he is, you do not stop w/ what he does to score the ball.

Here's what Otto Porter did in 2017-18: he grabbed 50% more rebounds than an average wing, he turned the ball over 60% as often as an average wing, he blocked 1/3 more shots than an average wing, & he got 45% more steals than an average wing.

While he did all this he also scored pretty well in my book: an average wing posts 48% on 2pt shots; Otto scored sank 2 point shots at a 53.7% clip. An average wing shoots 36% on 3 pt. attempts. Otto shot them at over 44%. An average wing shoots just over 79% on FTs. Otto shot just under 83%. And, of course, while doing all this stuff Otto also outscored an average wing by @ 11%.

You bringing up numbers thats not relevant. Otto mindset scoring wise is his bbiggest weakness and its a big weakness to have...
For a player to be that efficent and young and not scoring atleast 20 pts per game is a problem.
And its not on wall or brooks because they give otto the ball...

Il sum it up like this...is this the best otto will be?
Is his ceiling kyle korver or klay thompsom

Don’t hate me, but I think Otto is at least as good if not better than Klay.

Contract aside would u trade otto for klay right now?

[deneem4]

Kyle Korver is really good.

Because he shoot when passed the ball

[DCZards]

The media became very divisive. They attacked Gortat and took John Wall's side. Gortat's divisive tweets are the main reason they started being so defensive over John Wall. They defended John Wall so vehemently that they actually put Tomas Satoransky down by insisting that the Wizards were not better without John Wall.

There were so many nice plays Satoransky made that did not make highlights it was obvious the media was waiting for the Wizards to f*** up. Once Satoransky started making bad plays they made sure to play those highlights again and again. Tomas was rattled and those nationally televised games did him no good because he wilted.

I really believe the NBA is in effect racist. European players have to play like brothers or they will be buried by media coverage. If it's not a highlight-reel move it's not going to get covered nicely.

The only way a guy like Tomas Satoransky is going to get his props in this league as if he were traded to San Antonio.

This post is full of a lot of BS, ccj. I'm not even going to dignify it with a response.

Other than to say you sound an awful lot like the guy in the White House with your negativity toward the media.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Wow. No way could the Wiz have used Richaun Holmes at 1mm annually. I mean they’d have had to give up cash considerations

[payitforward]

8-4 is decent, but how do you reconcile 2017 when the Wizards had the 2nd best record in the league over a two and a half month period and were considered the hottest team in the league. Wall was player of the month and led the way.

8-4 is not "decent," it's a 54-55 win season.

& what is the point of your referencing our (wonderful!) 21-3 run in 2016-17 as if it was evidence of something?

It's not. Obviously, in the other games that season we went 28-30 while Wall "led the way." Does that prove something about John Wall? No, obviously, it doesn't. & if it doesn't, then neither does the run.

We started the 2014-15 season 19-6. Then we went 27-30 the rest of the way that year, & we followed that up by going 41-41 the following year. Wall "led the way". Does that prove something about John? No.

In fact, leaving out the 21-3 run, we've gone 96-101 over the last three & two thirds seasons. How about that?

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

8-4 is decent, but how do you reconcile 2017 when the Wizards had the 2nd best record in the league over a two and a half month period and were considered the hottest team in the league. Wall was player of the month and led the way.

8-4 is not "decent," it's a 54-55 win season.

& what is the point of your referencing our (wonderful!) 21-3 run in 2016-17 as if it was evidence of something?

It's not. Obviously, in the other games that season we went 28-30 while Wall "led the way." Does that prove something about John Wall? No, obviously, it doesn't. & if it doesn't, then neither does the run.

We started the 2014-15 season 19-6. Then we went 27-30 the rest of the way that year, & we followed that up by going 41-41 the following year. Wall "led the way". Does that prove something about John? No.

In fact, leaving out the 21-3 run, we've gone 96-101 over the last three & two thirds seasons. How about that?

Well. 96-101 is WAY better than Randy Wittman’s legendary won/lost percentage. There’s that.

[payitforward]

I agree with you that the "everybody eats" success faded over time as the Scouting Report came out, but it's worth noting that Otto Porter hurt himself in the March 10th Miami game and was a shadow of himself for the next month. Otto's poor play and limited minutes also contributed to that poor stretch in March/April.

Good point Nate. It's also worth noting that Wall played hurt almost the entire season and that he played more minutes than he should have. These things certainly affected his play...on both ends of the court.

Both good points.

I think the "Wizards better w/o Wall" thing was actually a media-hyped nothing. I remember being happy that we were winning some games w/ Sato, & I remember people pointing out that we were better off w/o playing an injured Wall. But I don't think you can use any of that to argue towards any conclusion.

Well... I guess you can conclude that, Otto Porter & John Wall being our two best players, we are not as good when they are injured -- either when they play injured or if they are unable to play.

[trast66]

No I would not trade Otto for Klay.

Obviously Klay is a more accomplished player over his career, may actually be underrated , a champion, and the Warriors would never trade Klay for Otto. But with wall and Beal I think Otto fits better. Again, I’m totally an Otto fanboy so some bias on my part.

[payitforward]

Sato benched himself for the playoffs...he was a deer in the headlights. Hopefully, the experience he gained as a starter last season will carry over into this season. Overall, he did play well in that role.

Sato has earned the right to play more...maybe not 30 mins a game though. More like around 25 mins.

I have him capped at 27 minutes 32 seconds.

Tomas Satoransky was not a deer in the headlights in the playoffs. Maybe you mean he had a bad game? Is that it?

This guy's been a pro for a decade or close to it. Which one of the Toronto Raptors scared him so much, do you think?

I don't get this discussion at all. Satoransky being good doesn't reflect on John Wall. They don't have to share a single portion of goodness!

I remember that last off season you were saying that you weren't comfortable w/ Satoransky as the backup; you strongly supported our trading an asset for 1 year of Frazier so we had a reliable veteran backup.

The better Tomas Satoransky is the better the Wizards are. Isn't that obvious? You could make the same statement about any player on the roster! & should. The better Austin Rivers is the better the Wizards are -- & you know I don't like Austin Rivers as a player!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The media became very divisive. They attacked Gortat and took John Wall's side. Gortat's divisive tweets are the main reason they started being so defensive over John Wall. They defended John Wall so vehemently that they actually put Tomas Satoransky down by insisting that the Wizards were not better without John Wall.

There were so many nice plays Satoransky made that did not make highlights it was obvious the media was waiting for the Wizards to f*** up. Once Satoransky started making bad plays they made sure to play those highlights again and again. Tomas was rattled and those nationally televised games did him no good because he wilted.

I really believe the NBA is in effect racist. European players have to play like brothers or they will be buried by media coverage. If it's not a highlight-reel move it's not going to get covered nicely.

The only way a guy like Tomas Satoransky is going to get his props in this league as if he were traded to San Antonio.

This post is full of a lot of BS, ccj. I'm not even going to dignify it with a response.

Other than to say you sound an awful lot like the guy in the White House with your negativity toward the media.

What I said is the media took John Wall's side and they lashed out against Gortot and indirectly Satoransky. I was thinking of Jalen Rose and Stephen A Smith on ESPN.

You compare me to Trump. You say I'm being negative about all media or political media or whatever comparison you're trying to make.

You say I'm full of b******* and you say you're not going to dignify that with a response. Yet you said some indignant dumb s*** yourself.

A big problem in this country is people who do what you just did. You don't like an idea and you come after a person with some real divisive s***.

You don't like an idea so you come up with a generalization out of the blue. You create an untruth.

I'll tell you what I don't like about Wall and I use facts and figures. I will stick to the opinions and try to just debate without getting personal.

(Besides you already know exactly how I feel about you cuz I told you in no uncertain terms about 3 or 4 years ago.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

DCZards, the very idea of someone comparing me to Donald Trump is enough for me to block their posts.

I won't miss a thing you have to say and I suggest you block mine because you just made an enemy today.

Wasn't talking about you at all but you did succeed in annoying the hell out of me. To me you're just like that Burt Gummer dude. Can't help yourself when it comes to f****** with people

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Anybody and everybody who is sick of reading what I have to say ....

Just block my posts.

Life is too f****** short to get into it on a personal level over ideas that should just be debated in a forum that used to be vibrant and fun. I met three of you in real life when my dad died --well one I knew for years before and that's Kevin Broom.

Montestewart was a very good friend at a time when I was in really bad shape. Ben B is also a compassionate, super human being...

I feel a closeness too many of you.

A number of you don't like me and you're just f****** mean. Dat2U, he and I can argue but I respect and have much love for him no matter how ugly our stuff gets. We really only argue over John Wall. Dude has way too much class to ever get personal about dumb s***.

I get the feeling however some of you just can't stand me and that's cool. A lot of the others think I'm kind of crazy and that's fine too not too far from true. One thing I defy any of you to ever do is see where I in a post come after you personally.

Getting into personal feuds with people is the stupidest thing you can do. Life is hard. This is a basketball forum. Good energy is in short supply. I really think the reason I'm so negative here has a lot to do with grunfeld and Brooks in the Wizards and just the last 15 years. I'm always happy when they're winning but they do stuff that's just confounding.

Most of us feel the very same way about this team.

The s*** I've been through in real life is enough for me to tell all of you please do not read my postd if I upset you.

Block me permanently and be sure to know that I wish you nothing but love. I truly apologize if my posts made you unhappy in any way.

I would tell John Wall you got super max reasons not to give a f*** what I think about you on the court as a basketball player. Above all don't forget that I said you'd be great on the Lakers. John Wall would also be tremendous on the Phoenix Suns. Better organizations and better opportunities for him to excel with better teammates and much better coaching at least on the Lakers.

The idea that people get so upset over a different opinion is exactly what is wrong with America IMO..


If you love John Wall and think he's great I'm going to tell you could be right and I might be wrong and I'm not mad at you. I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if you turn out to be right.

One thing I'm not going to get mad about is your opinion being different than mine. That's why God gave you a brain of your own.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This is that day that happens about every 6 months. Autocorrect is driving me crazy. I probably shouldn't be posting anything right now.

I will say I started it by going negative on John Wall and that didn't play well. So others decided to make me the instrument of criticism.That is pretty much how a message board works.

Not lost in all my frustration is the fact that a lot of people agree with me about John Wall....

Leadership concerns, injury concerns, Super Max contract concerns and the fact that there are a lot of good trade possibilities right now... along with the fact that the ball will not stop with one player dominating the dribble as much are ideas out on the table.

No names and that's my last post for a while

[DCZards]

Tomas Satoransky was not a deer in the headlights in the playoffs. Maybe you mean he had a bad game? Is that it?

This guy's been a pro for a decade or close to it. Which one of the Toronto Raptors scared him so much, do you think?

I attend 40-45 Wizard games a year. Sit about 15 rows from the floor. I can assure you that Sato was significantly more timid during the playoffs than he was during the regular season, it was obvious in his body language. It wasn't the Raptors or a particular Raptor player. I think it was the moment. Or maybe it was the fear of being pulled if he made a mistake. Whatever the reason, imo, Sato played scared during the playoffs.

I remember that last off season you were saying that you weren't comfortable w/ Satoransky as the backup; you strongly supported our trading an asset for 1 year of Frazier so we had a reliable veteran backup.

You're right. I wasn't sure that Sato was ready to step into the backup role. I'm glad he proved me wrong. The record will also show that I was one of the few posters here that has been high on Sato since his rookie season. I've consistently praised his defense and high bball IQ.