Will Hawks be better next season than many expect?

[pacehawk]

I do realize that the Hawks are being built for the future but with the recent additions of Jeremy Lin, Justin Anderson and now Alex Len can the Hawks be more competitive sooner than many of the so-called experts expect? While, I don't expect the Hawks to be NBA Champs next season I do think they will be an exciting team to watch/follow and I do think they will win more games than most predict!

[tbhawksfan1]

Might have added this to the projections thread instead of starting a new one

[steady]

Not sure how much you can trust things like this, but according to this computer simulations, yes, Hawks will be much better than many expect

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

Article reports on results of simulations re how every NBA teams’ offseason moves impacted their projected wins for 2018-2019

For ex: Biggest expected improvement is Lakers at +19. Biggest expected decline is Cavs at -23.

After Lakers, the three teams who (according to simulation) are expected to see the most improvements based on offseason moves are Mavs, Suns and Hawks

Hawks - before draft expected to have 27.3 wins next season, on July 20th (pre Alex Len trade but post all other trades) the sim found the number jumped to 35.4. Good for ninth in East according to sim.

That is a +8.1 projects improvement over the win total predicted before the Hawks offseason.


interesting way to look back at how this offseason shuffled the deck
— although the predicted level of improvement by both Hawks and Mavs is less than ideal. From pick standpoint

[graymule]

Hawks are building for the future. Many seem to forget that the players on our current roster are
part of the future. Just think, how many years do we expect some of these young men to be here?

[tbhawksfan1]

:D
Hawks are building for the future. Many seem to forget that the players on our current roster are
part of the future. Just think, how many years do we expect some of these young men to be here?

are you saying the future is now... or now is the future... or

nah it's not time yet. got to bring in more young talent, clear Plumlee and Baze, grab a FA or two

in the meantime for the few that are going to be the future, the time to develop is now. Win, not so much

[graymule]

Yep. The future is staring us in the face. Our hopefully great team will contain some of the players we have now.

[birdlives_ma]

I do realize that the Hawks are being built for the future but with the recent additions of Jeremy Lin, Justin Anderson and now Alex Len can the Hawks be more competitive sooner than many of the so-called experts expect? While, I don't expect the Hawks to be NBA Champs next season I do think they will be an exciting team to watch/follow and I do think they will win more games than most predict!

I love the optimism! I think we’ve got a really interesting mix of guys, and while I personally see us really struggling, we’re really well put together. Like the parts fit really well, and unlike last year, most of our guys would be welcome in an NBA rotation. The issue I see is the top end talent. We need that one superstar that changes the dialogue from “wtf? They’ve got Anderson starting?” To “damn, they’ve got crazy wing depth”


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[SuperKato]

There is a big down side for not making it to the playoff.

How are you going to attract free agents ? NO free agent is going to go to a team that is at the rock bottom.

NO front office is going to go thru the "Painful" rebuild like the sixers.

Most front office would follow Darrel Morey of Houston rebuild style, bringing James Harden type players

When you have a star player is much easier to attract another star player.

[MaceCase]

There is a big down side for not making it to the playoff.

How are you going to attract free agents ? NO free agent is going to go to a team that is at the rock bottom.

NO front office is going to go thru the "Painful" rebuild like the sixers.

Most front office would follow Darrel Morey of Houston rebuild style, bringing James Harden type players

When you have a star player is much easier to attract another star player.

You're new.

The Hawks spent 10 straight years in the playoffs, second longest streak in the league at one point.

Yes, we all agree we need a star thus why the team abandoned just making the playoffs and instead acquiring the assets to draft/trade for one.

[Jamaaliver]

There is a big down side for not making it to the playoff.

How are you going to attract free agents ? NO free agent is going to go to a team that is at the rock bottom.

LeBron James, JJ Redick and Paul Millsap might disagree with you.

[dms269]

There is a big down side for not making it to the playoff.

How are you going to attract free agents ? NO free agent is going to go to a team that is at the rock bottom.

NO front office is going to go thru the "Painful" rebuild like the sixers.

Most front office would follow Darrel Morey of Houston rebuild style, bringing James Harden type players

When you have a star player is much easier to attract another star player.

Most front offices would love to find a team that is in cap hell and is willing to move their former #3 overall pick in just their 3rd year. because they are afraid of matching a deal. The Harden was the Rockets giving up a solid SG (Martin), the 12th pick in 2012, what ends up being the 12th pick in 2013, and the 21st pick in 2014. Not saying it was a lot to give but it is easier said than done to do a deal like that.

Your best bet is to try and draft your star and and then you can go about signing free agents.

[ChokeFasncists]

Not sure how much you can trust things like this, but according to this computer simulations, yes, Hawks will be much better than many expect

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

Article reports on results of simulations re how every NBA teams’ offseason moves impacted their projected wins for 2018-2019

For ex: Biggest expected improvement is Lakers at +19. Biggest expected decline is Cavs at -23.

After Lakers, the three teams who (according to simulation) are expected to see the most improvements based on offseason moves are Mavs, Suns and Hawks

Hawks - before draft expected to have 27.3 wins next season, on July 20th (pre Alex Len trade but post all other trades) the sim found the number jumped to 35.4. Good for ninth in East according to sim.

That is a +8.1 projects improvement over the win total predicted before the Hawks offseason.


interesting way to look back at how this offseason shuffled the deck
— although the predicted level of improvement by both Hawks and Mavs is less than ideal. From pick standpoint

Really interesting how the computer came up with that.

I'd imagine Trae's college stats factor big into it, so are Lin's stats pre-injury, Collins and Prince's improvement trajectory, Bazemore and Dedmon's 3&D and having a lot of shooters and defenders.

Big if, but if all these things go well, this team could surprise. Len, Hamilton and Vince, guys that were signed later, should help a bit also.

[tbhawksfan1]

We're supposed to be rebuilding through the draft. If the rebuild results in a bunch of top 10 pîcks, but not top 3 picks, you think that's the best path to a drafting a star?

I'd rather the rebuild gather a couple top 3 picks than 3 top 10.

Odds say the star comes from the top of the draft

[GoodDayLa]

I believe the Hawks will be a fringe playoff team fighting between the 7th-10th spots in the East all season. It may start out rough but they will gain steam by All Star Break.

I would like to see Jeremy Lin start at the 2 with Young unless the Hawks lack so much confidence in Young that they start Lin at the 1. More than likely though, Lin's going to be a 15-25 MPG backup PG even if the entire world agrees that he is the best PG on roster in 2018-2019.

Based on what TS and LP have mentioned, I think they know their roster and how they want to play. Lin and Trae both commmand that opponents double or trap on the pick and roll. It will be nice to see if the Hawks can take advantage of that by having whomever is doubled or trapped whip the ball over to the high post or the weak side where the other guard can attack.

At the same time, I know many here think the Hawks wont run the pick and roll because of the Golden State Warrior influence. Thing is the Golden State Warriors dont have 2 elite Pick and Roll guards like Young and Lin who eat Pick and Roll Traps alive where they can whip the ball side to side and into the middle of the floor.

Young is also not the off ball catch and shoot mover that Curry is, or we don't know if he is that guy. Lin is no Klay THompson or Livingston but he is great at doing many other things such as pressuring a defense constantly. So they'll have to play different from the Warriors and do it their own way.

I would say the best way to equate the Hawks is with the Denver Nuggets of last season. Except the Hawks play in the East so if they get a .500 record, they should make the playoffs.

If the Hawks tap into dual PG play with Young and Lin and get these 2 guys sharing the ball and passing it into the open spots when teams come to trap the Pick and Roll, the Hawks should be a very good regular season team.

No defensive team in the NBA will be able to stop both Young and LIn together where they move and share the ball if any team is foolish enough to hard trap or double one of those guys on PnR action.

But we'll see if the coach and front office can make it happen in real life.

[jayu70]

Bazemore is the starting shooting guard unless he gets traded.
Trae or Lin will start.
Did you watch SL? Tons of PnR action. Schlenk has said he liked Trae because of his PnR ability to make quick reads and make a play with either hand, so I see no reason the PnR won't be a staple of the offense. Add John Collins into the PnR mix as well.

[D21]

We're supposed to be rebuilding through the draft. If the rebuild results in a bunch of top 10 pîcks, but not top 3 picks, you think that's the best path to a drafting a star?

I'd rather the rebuild gather a couple top 3 picks than 3 top 10.

Odds say the star comes from the top of the draft

Problem for this is that ATL have a GM that was part of the building of a NBA champion team where the three main guys were picked out of the Top 3
Now, does it was a better estmation of their potential, or just a bad estimation from the team picking ahead of them...

Really interesting how the computer came up with that...

I don't know how it works, but I find it strange that CHA could finish with 5L less than ATL. It would supposed them to decide a rebuild, and trade some of their bog contracts for assets. If they are not trading anyone, and don't get injuries, they will be a lot higher than 30W

For ATl, finishing at 9th in teh East, just behind WAS, would be a joke after one year of rebuild. A team keeping the core, and tanking one year because of an injury season, like MEM did, have reason to finish 9th if they fight for the playoffs but doesn't succeed, but a team not able to sign a big F.A. for years, starting a total rebuild, finishing at 9th one year later... it would be the most stupid rebuild I saw.

I don't like tanking, but I understand that if you rebuild totally and know that you need assets and good pick to contend because you won't sign a Star, better tank for two years and one only and miss the playoffs for one spot. Or you better have to be sure to show something new and be able to sign a Star next summer.
This road would be LAK's road last season, but ATL won't get a player like LeBron like that

We would also not get the CLE pick next season (and maybe not in 2020, ended up with a 2021 2nd, and a 2022 second), we would pick at 9 or 10, and at least we would get the DAL pick at 12th

[GoodDayLa]

Bazemore is the starting shooting guard unless he gets traded.
Trae or Lin will start.
Did you watch SL? Tons of PnR action. Schlenk has said he liked Trae because of his PnR ability to make quick reads and make a play with either hand, so I see no reason the PnR won't be a staple of the offense. Add John Collins into the PnR mix as well.

I was at a few SL games in person. Saw it firsthand. In those final games, Trae did a good job passing out of the hard traps. He tends to look for only the homerun pass right now as his young age. He'll have to also learn to throw simple dump offs more often over time as teams get savvy to him.

This team could end up being fun to watch.

[TinmanZBoy]

It’s really hard to see hawks will have a better record than any team... if they end up out of bottom three, that would be a pleasant surprise...I mean even if they bust their bangs, try all out to win, I still do not see they finish anything other than bottom three.... man, this is the art of tanking, 76er style, trying hard, running a long term offense and defense, still losing...

[Robo_Claw]

Bazemore is the starting shooting guard unless he gets traded.
Trae or Lin will start.
Did you watch SL? Tons of PnR action. Schlenk has said he liked Trae because of his PnR ability to make quick reads and make a play with either hand, so I see no reason the PnR won't be a staple of the offense. Add John Collins into the PnR mix as well.

I was at a few SL games in person. Saw it firsthand. In those final games, Trae did a good job passing out of the hard traps. He tends to look for only the homerun pass right now as his young age. He'll have to also learn to throw simple dump offs more often over time as teams get savvy to him.

This team could end up being fun to watch.

Thats fair, its one heck of a learning curve being a rookie pg in the nba. Especially when he was in HS like 2 years ago.

god i feel old. i'm the same age as lebron he must feel ancient around all these kids all the time.

[GoodDayLa]

It’s really hard to see hawks will have a better record than any team... if they end up out of bottom three, that would be a pleasant surprise...I mean even if they bust their bangs, try all out to win, I still do not see they finish anything other than bottom three.... man, this is the art of tanking, 76er style, trying hard, running a long term offense and defense, still losing...

The Hawks could have a better record than the Hornets and Magic, just to start.

Why?

Because the Hawks have 2 quality playmaking guards in Young and Lin that can both score when teams dare them to score (with Lin being a very efficent scorer though sometimes reluctant shooter ) that will help the wings and bigs succeed. Sorry but DJ Augustine Is not going to get it done in Orlando. Kemba? Great warrior and can be fun to watch, but he is completely lost trying to run an offense to improve his team. He can score for himself at a barely passable rate on a team trying to win and he avoids turnovers and that's about it. Barrego and his offensive strategy can only do so much. If he starts playing TParker over Kemba for wins, watch out. Kemba will run to Jordan & Mitch K and it won't be pretty. I've already seen that play out in Charlotte 3 seasons ago. That's why they've missed the playoffs the last 2 seasons.

I heard the Orlando GM choke on the radio when he said DJ was a quality starting PG and they were happy with him & expected to win. I swear the GM was stuttering when he said it because he knows it's not true.

Other teams with lesser quality guard play or me-first scorers that dont pass include Phoenix, Sacramento, Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit, Knicks, Nets, Bulls. The Hawks won't be better than all these teams, but those are some potential candidates the Hawks could be better than record wise.

This Hawks team will probably lead the NBA in pace or some form of offensive marker. Worst case, top 5 in 2-3 offensive categories. That's enough to compete for a low Eastern playoff seed, assuming the team is healthy and Lin and Young are both healthy for 85% of the season together.