2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[phillipmike]

I remember I was told that SRF wasn't going to be an option as a major league starter to finish the season and that our upper minors pitching wasn't good.

He still wouldn't be a great option in a stretch run, no. This thing where he has average command is still pretty new (it's been, I dunno, about a month and a half); I'd be relatively confident in him as a late-season call-up as a reliever, but less so as a starter. Good chance he has some serious rough patches early in his career, but I like his chances of refining his stuff and command more than I did last season, definitely, and 2019 is shaping up to be the sort of year where we can afford him the chance to work through it.

I'd re-sign Happ in the offseason after we deal him this month for a bounty of course. Happ, Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki, Reid-Foley, Gaviglio, Pannone, Romano, Harris and Zeuch would be some good depth.

It's still not great depth. It's improved, but I wouldn't bet on Romano/Harris/Zeuch playing significant starting roles in 2019, either. Zeuch's inability to miss bats looms pretty large, and Harris still mostly sucks; he has good control, but good grief does he give up a lot of hard contact.

Romano could be a sleeper, but he's basically a fastball/slider pitcher with a fairly involved delivery. I wouldn't bet against him being our closer by 2020, but he still has work to do in order to be a major league starter.

No body said it was GREAT depth and no body said he would be a GREAT option either, just that he is an option. And if there is a need for a long term rotation option from AAA then I would bet it would be SRF similar to Borucki.

7. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Blue Jays
Team: Triple-A Buffalo (International)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: 2-0, 0.75, 12 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 12 SO, 3 BB, 1 HR

The Scoop: The hard-throwing Reid-Foley has long had control problems, but it appears he may be conquering them. He’s walked two batters or less in seven of nine starts, all while continuing to miss bats. His latest start was his best, tossing six shutout innings with two hits allowed, one walk and seven strikeouts in a win over Durham. (KG)

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-72318/%3Famphtml

Reid Foley's control issues were overstated. He was bad in 2015, got better in 2016 and back to subpar in 2017 and looking good now. He was a pitcher drafted out of high school so he was expected to have control issues. He has made big strides and still is only 22.

He went from AA to AAA and is an MLB option as I predicted. He can easily be a MLB option for the Jays in the rotation, only question is if they will need one.

According to many the Jays went from bad depth preseason to what I would suggest is good depth. Can't become great after people where throwing them under the bus 4 months ago. Big improvements from their AAA and AA guys. The strength of the Jays system is bright and should turn them around fairly soon. Very big important strides from some doom and gloom guys that were trashing them 3-4 months ago.

[Schad]

Reid Foley's control issues were overstated. He was bad in 2015, got better in 2016 and back to subpar in 2017 and looking good now. He was a pitcher drafted out of high school so he was expected to have control issues. He has made big strides and still is only 22.

His command was, by all indications, worse than subpar last year. The walks are one part of the story; the hard contact is the other. He got rocked with regularity, because he lacked the command to avoid the parts of the plate where bad things happen.

And yeah, he's still young, so command/control issues aren't out of the ordinary. That would indeed be why he wasn't much of a rotation option for this season.

According to many the Jays went from bad depth preseason to what I would suggest is good depth. Can't become great after people where throwing them under the bus 4 months ago. Big improvements from their AAA and AA guys. The strength of the Jays system is bright and should turn them around fairly soon. Very big important strides from some doom and gloom guys that were trashing them 3-4 months ago.

You are free to suggest that it's good depth. I'm going to disagree because, well, one of the components of having good rotation depth is actually having a reasonably good rotation. Even if we re-sign Happ, Happ/Stroman/Sanchez/Borucki/Gaviglio or SRF with Pannone/SRF or Gaviglio as primary depth options isn't anything to write home about...it'd be cause for celebration if it was anywhere approaching league-average. Our rotation still needs a lot of work going forward.

[phillipmike]

Jays upper depth has made big strides. Of course they need more work. No one says they were great or were a finished products like you indicate or suggest.

It isn't doom and gloom, it's on the right path and on an upward trajectory which says something considering what many said about it 3-4 months ago.

SRF is young and seems to be working out the issues, still lots of time considering he is 22 in AAA. I'm very happy with our AAA and AA trajectory as stated. Still of course needs to improve and keep going, not a finished product by any means but much better than before the season.

Liked what I have seen from Borucki, SRF and Pannone. All options for the end of the season if you need them and I doubt they will need them.

[Schad]

I like what I've seen from SRF and Borucki, as well, and it has improved to some extent; certainly better than Rowley. There's still a really long way to go, though; again, most of those upper minors guys are middling prospects at best. Romano's a really interesting relief prospect, but a very fringy starting option, because he's 25 and only has two pitches that he deploys regularly. Despite his ERA, Zeuch's stock likely hasn't risen, because guys with a 5.6 K/9 in the minors generally don't fare too well in the majors.

We still badly need more high-end arms, and we're still some distance away from having an oversupply of such bubbling up.

[phillipmike]

Pointing out the positives in SRF, Borucki and even guys like Pannone and Romano doesn't change anything. They needed high end arms before and even after these pitcher's success and they will get them and if they don't they won't be successful.

Big strides were made but more need to be made in addition to more acquisitions.

My comments weren't concluding that the Jays were done with pitching rather they made big strides based on what many have thought before this season. Goes without saying as even though the Jays have the best position prospects in baseball imo they would do well to add more to it. Can never have enough.

[dagger]

My feeling on pitching in the system is closer to pessimistic despite the improvement a couple of guys have made. Theres not much at Advanced A down, except for Pearson and Pardhino, the former injured and hopefully not injury prone, the latter really, really young. There are a couple of bullpen arms in the minors below Buffalo - I'm watching Travis Bergen at NH, who has just been moved into the closer spot, and Patrick Murphy at Dunedin who has the FB velocity to be a very good one inning guy. Kloffenstein likely won't pitch until winter ball. Beyond that, it's pretty bleak. It would be helpful if Justin Maese can make a comeback from surgery next year.

[Schad]

Pointing out the positives in SRF, Borucki and even guys like Pannone and Romano doesn't change anything. They needed high end arms before and even after these pitcher's success and they will get them and if they don't they won't be successful.

Big strides were made but more need to be made in addition to more acquisitions.

It's just...big strides is an overstatement. Better than last year when most of the minor league pitchers took a huge step back? Definitely. But one of the things we'd hoped for entering the year was a big step forward from some of the second-tier pitchers who could arrive in 2020-2021, to provide us with genuine quality depth and that hasn't really happened. Yennsy Diaz is still pretty intriguing, but (sparkling ERA aside) appears to be quite a distance from being a major league starter. Pearson has been injured all year, Maese has been out all year, Perdomo has looked fairly good while sandwiched between two more injuries (as seems to be his specialty), Maximo Castillo has not had a good year, Jon Harris has been his usual flavour of bad. Murphy's intriguing, but hasn't yet been a standout (as dagger says, like Romano he might be a better fit for the 'pen in the future).

Two guys did well that have a real chance to stick in the rotation. Zeuch might have, depending on what you favour, and Romano could be a starter if you squint enough. Pannone...TBD given the time he missed. Our system is still very thin on pitching in the aggregate.

[polo007]

Vladdy hit a 2 run HR.

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[polo007]

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https://www.tsn.ca/shapiro-vlad-jr-will-not-skip-triple-a-1.1146613

“He’s back on the field playing now at Double-A, at some point, I would expect he go to Triple-A. Once he gets to Triple-A then I think the question is more valid, but we’re not going to skip him over Triple-A,” Shapiro said.

"Great players have a way of deciding for themselves when they're going to come up and we want to make sure that he has the best foundation possible for him," Shapiro said.

[Schad]

Tl;dr: we're almost definitely not calling him up 'til we get an extra year of service time, and the injury is a wonderfully convenient excuse there. As there's only a month remaining in the minor league season, Vlad will get a few weeks in AAA, spend the first couple/few weeks of 2019 in Buffalo, and then on to the bigs.

[phillipmike]

It's just...big strides is an overstatement.

Not really - this could have a profound impact on the organization's short term and long term plans. Short term, the Jays potentially just produced or found 4-5 guys that can take two spots of the 2019 rotation in Borucki, SRF, Gaviglio, Pannone and Romano in less than a year for under 1.5M combined if 2 are on a roster at a time. In 2017 we spent 28.2M on our 4 and 5 spots and in 2018 we spent 21M and more with incentives earmarked for plus the buyout for the following year for Garcia. Long term they could be key cogs in our rotation but that remains to be seen and it would be silly to predict or count on that just yeat. But short term it provides the organization was some options and opportunity they did not have 3-4 months ago.

The "big" strides i was referring to doesnt and shouldnt focus just on their development but what impact they have on the team itself in addition to the financial impact and potential opportunity costs you receiving with the cost savings.

2017: #4 and #5 Starters (Estrada and Liriano) 28.2M = 3.4 WAR
2018: #4 and #5 Starters (Estrada and Garcia) 23M (2M BO in 2019) = 1 WAR

These strides are important in a vacuum because you have made development strides but they are important financially as well. Do not need to play in the older FA market to find a 4th and 5th starter and you just saved money to open the door for potential other deals that involve payroll space like taking on a contract to get a prospect. They can allocate that other 20M elsewhere if they needed to.

Our system is still very thin on pitching in the aggregate.

There is no argument here.

It is and it will be a target for improvement but all i was stating was that i am happy to see the improvement on what we currently have is encouraging because as stated many here didnt have much hope for what was already here and any improvement is positive.

Finding potentially 2 internal rotation pieces for 2019 and on is huge; you save money and it buys you some time on the other guys either in the system or who will join the system with respect to trades prior to July 31.

Going from 2 injury prone starters who are 35 and 32 for a combined 20M+ to 2 internal pieces in Borucki who is 24 and potentially SRF who is 22 for a combined 1.5M with support from Gavilio, Pannone, and Romano is a big stride developmental, fiscally and on team impact in a small span of 3-4 months is a noteworthy improvement or at least continuing on a positive trajectory that i am very happy to note.

[Schad]

Not really - this could have a profound impact on the organization's short term and long term plans. Short term, the Jays potentially just produced or found 4-5 guys that can take two spots of the 2019 rotation in Borucki, SRF, Gaviglio, Pannone and Romano in less than a year for under 1.5M combined if 2 are on a roster at a time. In 2017 we spent 28.2M on our 4 and 5 spots and in 2018 we spent 21M and more with incentives earmarked for plus the buyout for the following year for Garcia. Long term they could be key cogs in our rotation but that remains to be seen and it would be silly to predict or count on that just yeat. But short term it provides the organization was some options and opportunity they did not have 3-4 months ago.

The "big" strides i was referring to doesnt and shouldnt focus just on their development but what impact they have on the team itself in addition to the financial impact and potential opportunity costs you receiving with the cost savings.

2017: #4 and #5 Starters (Estrada and Liriano) 28.2M = 3.4 WAR
2018: #4 and #5 Starters (Estrada and Garcia) 23M (2M BO in 2019) = 1 WAR

These strides are important in a vacuum because you have made development strides but they are important financially as well. Do not need to play in the older FA market to find a 4th and 5th starter and you just saved money to open the door for potential other deals that involve payroll space like taking on a contract to get a prospect. They can allocate that other 20M elsewhere if they needed to.


There is no argument here.

It is and it will be a target for improvement but all i was stating was that i am happy to see the improvement on what we currently have is encouraging because as stated many here didnt have much hope for what was already here and any improvement is positive.

Finding potentially 2 internal rotation pieces for 2019 and on is huge; you save money and it buys you some time on the other guys either in the system or who will join the system with respect to trades prior to July 31.

Going from 2 injury prone starters who are 35 and 32 for a combined 20M+ to 2 internal pieces in Borucki who is 24 and potentially SRF who is 22 for a combined 1.5M with support from Gavilio, Pannone, and Romano is a big stride developmental, fiscally and on team impact in a small span of 3-4 months is a noteworthy improvement or at least continuing on a positive trajectory that i am very happy to note.

I mean, it's absolutely useful to back-fill the rotation on the cheap. But now we're not looking at 2019, because 2019 is going to be a dumpster fire. We're looking at 2020 and beyond, and we're going to need more than just fringe fourth and fifth starter types; in that regard, it's been a less than promising year. SRF/Borucki both certainly have a chance to be more than that, but we really need the likes of Pearson to get/stay healthy and make the leap.

[Schad]

Gabriel Moreno Contact Watch: 39 of his last 40 plate appearances have ended with a ball in play. He's 17 games in and has yet to walk.

[Lateral Quicks]

We do look to have enough talent to backfill the #4 and #5 spots for the foreseeable future though, which I agree is a big deal. I have never liked the idea of spending $10M/y on the likes of Garcia when you get the upside of a younger player for $9.5M less.

Since 2019 is a transition year anyway, I can see the Jays re-signing Happ or another vet to lead a young rotation consisting of Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki, and one of Pannone or SRF. See how 2019 goes and then supplement in 2020 with one or two big guns via free agency or trade. Assuming they're ready to compete that early, of course.

[phillipmike]

I mean, it's absolutely useful to back-fill the rotation on the cheap. But now we're not looking at 2019, because 2019 is going to be a dumpster fire. We're looking at 2020 and beyond, and we're going to need more than just fringe fourth and fifth starter types; in that regard, it's been a less than promising year. SRF/Borucki both certainly have a chance to be more than that, but we really need the likes of Pearson to get/stay healthy and make the leap.

Again none of this has anything to do with what i said. My comment were about upper minors pitching depth.

You made a post that SRF looks good. I just agreed with you and went that step further to outline many posters said the Jays AAA depth looked bad 3-4 months ago and since then we found a good 6th or 7th starter in Gaviglio, found a potential long term 4th starter in Borucki and SRF made big strides to be an option for the rotation from AA. Not to mention Pannone has given you something after his suspension and Romano is at worst AAA starter depth or likely a reliever.

All i said back in March was that our depth wasnt as bad as other stated and just after 3-4 months even my expectations were exceeded.

I commented about upper minors depth and upper minors depth alone. My comment had nothing to do with the minors as a whole or the lower minor leagues. Never said that the work is done they can sit on their hands - building a farm is fluid and never ending. The upper starting minors depth looks much better than many thought 3-4 months ago but you can always add and improve it.

[phillipmike]

We do look to have enough talent to backfill the #4 and #5 spots for the foreseeable future though, which I agree is a big deal. I have never liked the idea of spending $10M/y on the likes of Garcia when you get the upside of a younger player for $9.5M less.

Since 2019 is a transition year anyway, I can see the Jays re-signing Happ or another vet to lead a young rotation consisting of Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki, and one of Pannone or SRF. See how 2019 goes and then supplement in 2020 with one or two big guns via free agency or trade. Assuming they're ready to compete that early, of course.

Completely agree. I was thinking about it today, that the Jays have not had worthwhile impact from their farm in forms of a prospect developed since 2015 on both the pitching and batting side. That is a huge, unacceptable gap in development and cheap talent.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=14&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

The only guys to come from our system/minors to produce 1 WAR or more since 2015 was Pillar (9.1), Travis (5.2), Osuna (6.6), and Tepera (1.3) - and this cumulative not just one season. And all those guys came in from 2015 so since then the Jays had nothing from the farm come to the majors and produced anything of value in 2016 and 2017. Only Hernandez (1.1) and Borucki (1.0) have done it since and those contributions came 2018.

It takes time to replenish the farm but this is something any team needs to improve and keep an eye on if they want to build a sustainable winner. 2019 will be a great transition year for this. Jays will be saving on their 4th and 5th starter. I assume with they have some pen contributions from the minors. Might not need to spend 5.5M on a middle infielder like Solarte next season if Gurriel is ready. Dont need to spend 11M on Granderson and Pearce now that you have Grichuk, Hernandez and Pillar not to mention Pompey and Smith as capable 4th and 5th OF guys. 20 months from now you get 32M back from Morales and Martin and likely can replace or exceed that production in Jansen and rotating the DH (though Hernandez is likely a DH which is fine with Alford likely knocking on the door).

[Schad]

Alejandro Kirk is another unheralded youngster putting up surprising numbers; at 19, he has 6 HRs in 31 games (and 5 in 13), with 19 walks against 14 strikeouts. May well be nothing, but he's a catcher (albeit one seeing a fair bit of time at DH thanks to Hagen Danner), and teenage catchers thumping the ball always merits a mention.

[IceBelly05]

Forrest Wall 80 grade name added to the organization

[vaff87]

Forrest Wall just had to switch dug outs. He’s in the line up for NH tonight.

[vaff87]

Forrest Wall hit a HR in his second AB with New Hampshire.