Lakers outlook (this year and next)

[LeCalinou]

The perceived value of teams in the NBA, the "eye-test" and "analytics" taken into account, is based on how many different line-ups a team can use that will yield positive results against current
By analyzing the FA moves and the evolution of the young guys in summer league, I'm focusing on:

A. Pecking order
B. What skills + weaknesses players bring to the team
C. The end result

Before starting this, I acknowledge the validity of the Lakers' thinking (the execution is another thing): you can't beat the Warriors at their own game. Their system maximizes 3 aspects: 1. good shot-creation 2. TEAM defense 3. shot-making.
No other team in the league could conceivably build that within 1 year. So why try something that is doomed to fail ?

A. Pecking order relative to what they'll be asked to do for the team.
1. Ball
2. KCP
3. Ingram
4. James
5. McGee

6. Kuzma
7. Rondo
8. Hart
9. Wagner
10. Stephenson
11. Mikhayliuk
12. Beasley
13. Zubac

B. Skills + weaknesses = what floor and ceiling each player has within this context.
It has been said that LBJ teams need shooting. Going forward, LBJ's age will play a factor, and we can learn something from past failures. The last 5 Finals he has lost in, there was not enough:
- team structure
- shot-creators
- defense

What the Lakers can count on is that almost every player on the roster has length. If you add basketball IQ to the equation, you can get positive production on the defensive end from different line-ups.
With Lonzo, Rondo, James, and Ingram on the team, you can count on them moving the ball efficiently and finding good shots (wherever they might come from on the court) early in the shot-clock. So if the different parts are getting easier looks at the basket throughout the game, then their performance (with each individual player having his own "floor and ceiling") can be maximized.

Relative to their importance to the team, the new additions CAN be expected to perform well within the team context.
For example:
- Ball's early passes and court vision can lead to more buckets with better finishers
- KCP can really focus on Defense (being involved in more competitive games, this will count more than it did last year)
- Ingram can utilize his length and vision better if there is less pressure for him to create in 1-on-1 situations
- James will not be counted on as much to create Offense. If he spends less energy on Offense, he can also play passable Defense and conserve his energy better for the playoffs
- McGee can get his points efficiently by running the floor and setting screens. His stamina will decrease less, and that keeps him engaged on Defense If you get 12-18 efficient minutes out of him, then you're doing well.
- Kuzma can take even more advantage of situations on Offense, and focus more on his Defense.
- Rondo cast as a high-usage back-up can mean his value is very good for the team. Off the bench, his shot creation will be very valuable. That means is that he'll be more engaged in other aspects
- Hart looks more equipped to take advantage of in-game situations: better handle, better vision, more decisiveness going to the basket
- In a fast-paced game, Wagner will be less over-matched by bigger, stronger players. So if he can stay on the floor for at least 10 minutes, his reads on Offense and Defense can bring positive contributions
- Stephenson too can be efficient, if you don't rely on him TOO much, and can bring plus-value with energy and aggressivity.

I'll admit there are a lot of "ifs" in this argument, but if you take into account each players' relative importance to the teams, you can count on 4-8 players on the roster having positive impacts in any given game.
Obviously, in certain match-ups, maybe Ingram, or Ball, or MeGee will be less effective against opposing players. But the "lesser players" can't be discarded so easily...

C. In conclusion, what I like about the current roster is that there is potential to build an identity. On paper, maybe, the new guys and the existing pieces don't look like natural fits next to LBJ.
With so many playable pieces, you can mix and match to find effective line-ups. Right now, nobody can guess which line-ups will fonction best. But you can try many things and find the solutions that work.

[Vae Victus]

The depth and quality 1-4 on this year's squad is INSANELY stacked when compared to last year. The 5 spot otoh looks quite hideously bad as we're going from BroLo+Randle combo to McGee+Rookie Scrubs. However defensively at the 5 spot i dont think we're losing a whole lot, whereas the offensive versatility + firepower we gain from 1-4 will more than make up the difference we lose from last year's squad.

TBH we just have too much quality depth 1-4, if only we can trade Stephenson or Beasley for an equivalent quality C (someone like Dedmon for example) our roster is literally perfect considering the limitations of 1 year signings. Cuz we're gonna be counting alot on the bigs behind McGee to not embarass themselves too much on D, and it's prolly too tough of an order to ask of Zubac and Wagner.

I'm still so goddamned annoyed we didnt hold onto Randle's rights with a death grip and force him to sign the QO, at this point our best move is to just start him at C and have McGee back him up. All we'd really lose is Lance or Beasley, with a small chance at not signing Rondo. With the way the market went seems like Rondo didnt have much of a market anyway and we coulda just waited to sign him after Randle gets locked up on the QO.

Regardless i feel we should have a rest system in place for our 1-4 guys. Just designate one player to rest and give his PT to be shared among the others. Very similar to how the Dodgers platoon their players and half of em having the ability to play multiple positions giving maximum flexibility so everyone gets a good amount of at bats to stay sharp. It's nice we have players who can play multiple positions no problem as well as a coupla stepping up to be starters with zero issues (Rondo, Kuzma, Lance, Hart). It'd be great if we can give everyone 10 games off over the course of the year to keep them all fresh as daisies when we head into the playoffs, very similar to how Pop managed things. I know people will say we should give all the kids as much PT as possible, but why run em to the edge when we dont NEED to with all the quality depth the team has. With luck we can inflate some players values and then try to do some trade consolidations for better individual players at the cost of 2 or more of our own.

[danfantastk32]

I'm still so goddamned annoyed we didnt hold onto Randle's rights with a death grip and force him to sign the QO, at this point our best move is to just start him at C and have McGee back him up. All we'd really lose is Lance or Beasley, with a small chance at not signing Rondo. With the way the market went seems like Rondo didnt have much of a market anyway and we coulda just waited to sign him after Randle gets locked up on the QO.

I dont think it can be said better than that.

Lance and Beasley are crap....3rd rate at best. And for that, we let a really good, upcoming young talent walk. A guy who brings the passion and the grit (apparently good things on this squad) and who would be a great fit for our Center.

Plain old dumb if you ask me.

I'm willing to give this squad a chance, and I'll admit it if I'm wrong.....but I think we got a big ol' glaring hole in our roster. Randle fought his way back into my heart last year. I get the guy has massive limitations. It's why I wanted him out. But he showed so much last year. And to let him walk for peanuts??? So we could scrape the bulk bin for bench crew?

For all the good...I think this mistake really hurts us this year.

[stan francisco]

It’s sucks that we lost Randle. He’s exactly the kind of low post bully that all contenders need.

But, it could be argued that Randle is not a center and that he was supurflous once we signed LBJ. I think there’s something else behind us letting him go. It’s not about on court issues. Agent relationship could be one of them. Locker room fit could be another. Who knows? He’s gone now.

The quality of our center lineup hinges on Zubac. He needs to have a breakout year.

[myersia]

I think we will be top 4 in west. Get to second round in playoffs.


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[Penberthy]

I feel like once IT came, Zubac's game elevated a lot. I think playing with Lebron, Rondo, Lance is going to work wonders for him.

[LAKESHOW]

This year playoffs. Then its a LOCK we will get one on that Long list of free agents. Many want kawahi, but im good with a few others on that list as well. The situation interesting for me is the Pau Gasol TYPE situation. We were cruising along, and then POW, we get Pau midseason and jumped to the finals in 08 with a strong celtic squad. But that carried us to 3 year finals run. If we get a trade deadline acquisition, it could do the same. That Pau Gasol deal is why i fully blame Jimmy. Because a smart move like that, showed me Mitch was totally following the owner Jimmys idiot ideas.

[Landsberger]

I'm still so goddamned annoyed we didnt hold onto Randle's rights with a death grip and force him to sign the QO, at this point our best move is to just start him at C and have McGee back him up. All we'd really lose is Lance or Beasley, with a small chance at not signing Rondo. With the way the market went seems like Rondo didnt have much of a market anyway and we coulda just waited to sign him after Randle gets locked up on the QO.

I dont think it can be said better than that.

Lance and Beasley are crap....3rd rate at best. And for that, we let a really good, upcoming young talent walk. A guy who brings the passion and the grit (apparently good things on this squad) and who would be a great fit for our Center.

Plain old dumb if you ask me.

I'm willing to give this squad a chance, and I'll admit it if I'm wrong.....but I think we got a big ol' glaring hole in our roster. Randle fought his way back into my heart last year. I get the guy has massive limitations. It's why I wanted him out. But he showed so much last year. And to let him walk for peanuts??? So we could scrape the bulk bin for bench crew?

For all the good...I think this mistake really hurts us this year.

Letting Randle go like we did can only be explained one way IMHO..... Ownership and most likely the coach were in agreement that they didn't want him. There may be more to this than play on the court. They tried pretty hard to trade him at the deadline as well. They didn't even want him for a single year it seems. It's interesting that the league didn't rise up and offer him a large deal either. You can say we made a mistake but in that you're saying the entire league made one too.

[Vae Victus]

Had we kept Randle it'd have been on a 1 yr 5.6m Qualifying Option. That's a no brainer bargain and if Randle kept his mouth shut and played hard, he coulda gotten alot of C mins in our speedball lineups, put up great stats on a PLAYOFF team, and then get paid in 2019 when the cap is much looser throughout the league. This assumes he doesnt improve one iota in his game, now if he can add a mid range J or flash a 33% 3pt shot, his market goes up, ALOT.

Had we kept Randle i highly doubt he'd jeopardize his next contract by being a whiny lil bitch like Noel was. We all saw where that gets you, a min contract backing up Steven "Ironman" Adams.

Now tbf Randle still ended up in a good situation in NOP. He gets paid more and has a player option in 2019 just in case something bad happens. Security he'd never have gotten from us via QO. He gets to play next to 2 bigs who can stretch the floor in Davis/Mirotic, so maybe Randle can flourish with alot of touches in the paint. Will be interesting how Jrue does going back to full time PG and how it'll affect the team offensively.

I just dont see the harm in waiting out the Randle RFA situation, either we get a bargain Randle or we force some idiot team to overpay him as we bid him buh bye. Rondo didnt have much of a market with his attitude issues, so i'm confident we coulda landed both if we had been patient.

[Landsberger]

Had we kept Randle it'd have been on a 1 yr 5.6m Qualifying Option. That's a no brainer bargain and if Randle kept his mouth shut and played hard, he coulda gotten alot of C mins in our speedball lineups, put up great stats on a PLAYOFF team, and then get paid in 2019 when the cap is much looser throughout the league. This assumes he doesnt improve one iota in his game, now if he can add a mid range J or flash a 33% 3pt shot, his market goes up, ALOT.

Had we kept Randle i highly doubt he'd jeopardize his next contract by being a whiny lil bitch like Noel was. We all saw where that gets you, a min contract backing up Steven "Ironman" Adams.

Now tbf Randle still ended up in a good situation in NOP. He gets paid more and has a player option in 2019 just in case something bad happens. Security he'd never have gotten from us via QO. He gets to play next to 2 bigs who can stretch the floor in Davis/Mirotic, so maybe Randle can flourish with alot of touches in the paint. Will be interesting how Jrue does going back to full time PG and how it'll affect the team offensively.

I just dont see the harm in waiting out the Randle RFA situation, either we get a bargain Randle or we force some idiot team to overpay him as we bid him buh bye. Rondo didnt have much of a market with his attitude issues, so i'm confident we coulda landed both if we had been patient.

I don't disagree with that but the facts seem to point to something else. I've never thought he'd be a center for anything more than a curiosity. Maybe that's it. It was definitely something because it sure seems purposeful given the multiple opportunities to keep him on a short contract for cheap.

[danfantastk32]

Had we kept Randle it'd have been on a 1 yr 5.6m Qualifying Option. That's a no brainer bargain and if Randle kept his mouth shut and played hard, he coulda gotten alot of C mins in our speedball lineups, put up great stats on a PLAYOFF team, and then get paid in 2019 when the cap is much looser throughout the league. This assumes he doesnt improve one iota in his game, now if he can add a mid range J or flash a 33% 3pt shot, his market goes up, ALOT.

Had we kept Randle i highly doubt he'd jeopardize his next contract by being a whiny lil bitch like Noel was. We all saw where that gets you, a min contract backing up Steven "Ironman" Adams.

Now tbf Randle still ended up in a good situation in NOP. He gets paid more and has a player option in 2019 just in case something bad happens. Security he'd never have gotten from us via QO. He gets to play next to 2 bigs who can stretch the floor in Davis/Mirotic, so maybe Randle can flourish with alot of touches in the paint. Will be interesting how Jrue does going back to full time PG and how it'll affect the team offensively.

I just dont see the harm in waiting out the Randle RFA situation, either we get a bargain Randle or we force some idiot team to overpay him as we bid him buh bye. Rondo didnt have much of a market with his attitude issues, so i'm confident we coulda landed both if we had been patient.

I don't disagree with that but the facts seem to point to something else. I've never thought he'd be a center for anything more than a curiosity. Maybe that's it. It was definitely something because it sure seems purposeful given the multiple opportunities to keep him on a short contract for cheap.

Yeah....there are many many things we don't know. Perhaps they approached him about center, and he told them to F-off??? I mean who really knows? I don't know what's up with Luke, and if he wanted Randle gone or not? Jeanie came out and said Luke was family, or whatever thing.....was that to Magic and Rob? Was that to Lebron? Seems like something that doesn't need to be said, when everyone's in good communication....right? But that's just it. We've got tea-leaves to sift through, and 24hour news.

Did Luke even know about it? Maybe Rob/Magic wanted to keep him, but it was Luke that wanted him out? I mean who knows? Maybe you're right....and it was a concerted decision.

I just think we let one of our better young guys walk for nothing. I don't remember them shopping him around this last trade window, but maybe they did. I will concede that 2-year $18 mil was way way WAY less than I thought he'd go for....so maybe the league knows something we don't about the guy? Lots of limitations.....but he still got the job done.

All in the past now. Looking forward, I'd like to see Zubac get some more minutes. Someone earlier mentioned how well Zubac played with IT....and I remember that as well. I think Zubac has alot to offer.....but he is undeniably a bit of the "lumbering Center" that is dead in todays NBA.

I think this team is pretty solid, except for Center. If Zubac can take the ball and roll with it, this team can prob make some noise. If not.....we tweak next offseason.

[LakersSoul]

Had we kept Randle it'd have been on a 1 yr 5.6m Qualifying Option. That's a no brainer bargain and if Randle kept his mouth shut and played hard, he coulda gotten alot of C mins in our speedball lineups, put up great stats on a PLAYOFF team, and then get paid in 2019 when the cap is much looser throughout the league. This assumes he doesnt improve one iota in his game, now if he can add a mid range J or flash a 33% 3pt shot, his market goes up, ALOT.

Had we kept Randle i highly doubt he'd jeopardize his next contract by being a whiny lil bitch like Noel was. We all saw where that gets you, a min contract backing up Steven "Ironman" Adams.

Now tbf Randle still ended up in a good situation in NOP. He gets paid more and has a player option in 2019 just in case something bad happens. Security he'd never have gotten from us via QO. He gets to play next to 2 bigs who can stretch the floor in Davis/Mirotic, so maybe Randle can flourish with alot of touches in the paint. Will be interesting how Jrue does going back to full time PG and how it'll affect the team offensively.

I just dont see the harm in waiting out the Randle RFA situation, either we get a bargain Randle or we force some idiot team to overpay him as we bid him buh bye. Rondo didnt have much of a market with his attitude issues, so i'm confident we coulda landed both if we had been patient.

A few things, first, we picked up the best player who plays the same position. Randle was wanted but not a priority and he must have been hurt.

We also drafted a less talented but highly more versatile PF/C who can stretch the floor in Wagner. Then we signed an athletic C in McGee. This must have made Mintz panic with teams running out of cap space.

Randle was good last year and would have been useful but he wasnt more than an average defender and couldnt stretch the floor. Where he excelled was crunch time inside scoring but now we have LeBron and unlees Randle learned to stretch the floor he was going to get less minutes for sure.

Thus, I think the FO was targetting a 1 year or at least requesting patience as we try to formulate a good roster but well prepared just in case he was outside our salary level. Randle and Mintz, OTOH, wanted more freedom and ability to negotiate before teams used up their roster and cap space.

They pushed, demanding freedom and instead of forcing the issue as a RFA, Lakers granted Mintz the right to do what they wished which was 1+1 in NO. I think Lakers could have done better if they waited but whatever. Mintz's future clients might never set foot in LA Lakers again.

[dipstick]

The Randle issue is beating a dead horse. And frankly, I don't really agree with the strategy. Personally, I would have liked to keep Randle. If we were willing to offer anything more than one year, then by all means be patient and play the RFA game. However, whats the point of holding on to him? Just so we improve for 1 year? OK, maybe that's ok, but that would also reflect poorly on the FO and long term, we wouldn't really get any gain. We are not contending for the championship this year so might as well set him free out of goodwill, get Rondo, who might help in the development of Lonzo, and free up playing time for Wagner.

Even if you do not agree with this way of thinking, and think that Rondo could still have been gotten or that Wagner is not worth giving PT to, its pretty much agreed that Randle would have left especially if we played hardball forcing him to take the QO. So long term, what's the benefit really? Yes we could have gotten a few more wins, maybe advanced a little bit more in the playoffs, but by next year, all of that would have been for naught.

At the very least, a few less wins would get us a better pick for 2019.

[Penberthy]

Any time Lebron James is on your team, you are competing for a chip.

[One Love]

Every move made by the Lakers this summer had to do with flexibility, watching the young kids with LBJ & making sure Hart, Kuzz & Ingram get plenty of minutes... I think we make the playoffs this year with a likely 2nd round exit... I am fired up for the season...

Lakeshow Baby...

[Hank7]

It'll be nice to be in the playoffs again after a five year absence. Thank you Lebron!