Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

No so much stars as those of equal value to John. But we have been over this - I clearly undervalue John from your perspective (at least this is my perspective). I see John as a player that isn't consistently a top 25 player (I was trying to make the point that I didn't think he was a top 20 player in his best season).

But we have him now - he has the supermax and I think it would be very difficult to trade him. So, now I have to hope that he starts playing like a top 20 player and not a top 50 player

You probably have me mixed up wtih another poster, but that's ok. We'll agree to disagree on Iggy. Last season, I don't think Wall was even top 50, but the season before, I think he was probably towards the end of the top 20.

Yeah. Wall has his best season in 2016/17. He averaged 23 points and 10.5 assists with a pretty efficient ORtg of 111. He posted a career low in percentage of shots taken between 10 and 22 feet and had the second best TOV% of his career. He ranked 1st in the league in assists and steals. He ranked 7th in MVP shares. He led his team to their best win total in 39 years and they got the furthest they've gotten in the playoffs in the modern era (Game 7 of the second round).

I think Wall was pretty comfortably a top 20 player that year. He was by no means in that elite tier of top 8 players (Lebron, Durant, Kawhi, Davis, Paul, Westbrook, Harden, Curry) but he was in the mix with the next tier of really good guys (Giannis, Lowry, Derozan, Klay, Draymond, Gobert, Butler, Lillard, Thomas, Beal, Jokic). Even if you put him at the tail end of that group, he's still around 18th, and an argument could be made for something in the 10-12 range.

Since I'm always right... God gave me the number 23 . Thirtysomething teams maybe 350 to 450 players. He's 23

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Would you guys consider a Wall/Lowry swap?

Due to salary.

Probably not.

I'm definitely willing to trade Wall, but we need more than just salary relief. There has to be one promising pick/prospect in the transaction. Indeed, rather than a guy like Lowry (very good, but on the wrong side of his career), I'd prefer a crappy filler contract plus a legit young asset. Something like Deng + Ball would make more sense for the Wizards.

Trading Wall would be a rebuilding move. You can't rebuild without assets. If we got no young assets, then we'd just end up as a treadmill team because Beal, Porter and co. are good enough to win 37 games.

U R probably right.

I would. Not u.

Cool

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Would you guys consider a Wall/Lowry swap?

Due to salary.

Maybe, but we kind of need to see how good this team is first.

makes us better now and gets us out of cap hell in the future.

We r the 2 bst...



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[NatP4]

Don't tell dckings that. He doesn't think Wall was a top 30 player in 2016-17.

RPM says he was the 48th best player in the NBA in 2016-2017.

Morris was 58th!!!! how do we get that guy back?

Not seeing that RPM ranking online. Can you post the link? Thanks.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2017/sort/RPM

[Dat2U]

If you go by what he did at the end of the year and the playoffs, Wall looked like a top 10 player. Realistically when healthy he's probably about 15. Last year overall he wasn't in the top 50.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Maybe, but we kind of need to see how good this team is first.

makes us better now and gets us out of cap hell in the future.

Yeah makes perfect sense to trade for the guy already in his decline... goes well with our young core???

No it doesn't make sense to me, either...definitely NOT conventional wisdom.

Do you play chess? (Khdad4kids on chess.com....I only play bullet)

Sacrifice openings and tricky, weird, crappy-seeming "blunders"...OCCASIONALLY...are done deliberately.

Horrible trade...twenty-five wins...MIGHT BE ENOUGH to topple Brooks and Grunfeld by May 2019. Bad season where Wizards are teetering on 7-10 seed...make a decision...WALL gotta fall...right when Toronto is seeing THE BEST OF KAWHI....BUT...he's an UFA.

So ...Toronto gets mad desperate. KAWHI LOVES NO TAX AND CLEAN CANADA BUT WANTS TO WIN....needs a super athletic PG.

They give up Lowry plus all of Midas' AU.

CHEMISTRY...IIRC AU is gold.

Now, it's FEASIBLE TO LISTEN TO OFFERS...

my process? I'm like Radar on M.A.S.H in my opinion. I hear the choppers coming. I TOLD ALL OF YOU GILBERT IS HURT. I believed he was opting out injured (Damn smart on Gil! Not mad at a brother getting paid). Said his contract would become an albatross. Nobody agreed.

A couple heard me out. Very similar to RIGHT NOW...except NatP4, dckings, and others like queridiculo and Wallstar...they're already seeing life after Wall. Nate is too...

I digress.

Why wait until returns diminish? By Christmas...it might already by WAY TOO LATE to fleece another team. That scenario above PROBABLY WILL NOT HAPPEN. By the deadline teams will low ball.

EG prolly waits until super max Wall gets injured. God forbid, he could do what I did and DeMarcus had happen. Then the Wiz gotta pay $200M and pray for healing...

Seems to me the man is RICH. BLESSED. HIGHLY FAVORED....a good trade can put John in the HOF

Can't see that happen in DC

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If you go by what he did at the end of the year and the playoffs, Wall looked like a top 10 player. Realistically when healthy he's probably about 15. Last year overall he wasn't in the top 50.

7

God-mode JW is IMO the 8th wonder...no..7th best


Random WAG

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[payitforward]

If you go by what he did at the end of the year and the playoffs, Wall looked like a top 10 player. Realistically when healthy he's probably about 15. Last year overall he wasn't in the top 50.

This is getting ridiculous.

He most certainly did not look like a top 10 player in the playoffs.

The idea that "when healthy he's probably about 15" is just plain bizarre. In his very best year -- much better than his 2d best year & utterly eclipsing any other year in his career -- he still wasn't as good a PG as Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Steph Curry or Isaiah Thomas. Or Kyle Lowry for that matter.

Oh what blasphemy! But if I gave you the numbers without the names, that's how you'd rate them too. & no matter what way you calculate it, no matter whether it's PER or the dreaded WP48 or absolutely any other metric, it always comes out the same.

& if we composite any 3-year sequence for him vs. any of those point guards, it comes out the same.

As to last year, overall he wasn't in the top 150. Look at the d@#ned numbers! You really think John Wall can be playing with significant injury & he's in the top 10% of players in the league?

How about with his hand tied behind his back? Would that push him down to just above average?

When he's healthy & in his best year, he can crack the top 25 players in the league. Just. Has he shown that he can crack it two years in a row? No. How about 2 years out of 3? No.

For saying these things, I suppose I'll hear that I'm "a John Wall hater." Only, no, I'm not -- he is a terrific player. & in any given moment he can look other-worldly great. But, putting him on a higher level than he deserves does the guy no favors.

[dangermouse]

The last ~3 pages are not a great read... I think this belongs in the Wall discussion thread but thats just me

[dckingsfan]

If you go by what he did at the end of the year and the playoffs, Wall looked like a top 10 player. Realistically when healthy he's probably about 15. Last year overall he wasn't in the top 50.

Interesting - so if we go by "point in time" then I would have to agree with you. There are short periods where he plays like a top 20 even top 15 player.

But I could make that same argument for many players.

But those periods are infrequent. If you take him over the last 3 years - I wouldn't give him a top 30 ranking.

But, I can see your perspective that he has top 15 talent. And the notion that he could do that consistently.

But for the reason stated previously, I don't think he can be that player consistently.

We will get to watch this one unfold together

[penbeast0]

... Something like Deng + Ball would make more sense for the Wizards....

I'd make that deal for the Wizards.

[nate33]

The last ~3 pages are not a great read... I think this belongs in the Wall discussion thread but thats just me

dangermouse is right.

Let's carry on any more Wall talk to the Wall thread.

[nate33]

... Something like Deng + Ball would make more sense for the Wizards....

I'd make that deal for the Wizards.

I'd also be watching the Cavaliers this year. With them resigning Love, it looks like they're going to try and compete over the next 4 years rather than break it down and rebuild. I'd consider trading them Wall for one of their short contracts (George Hill would be best) in exchange for a high pick.

Wall is in the middle of his peak, perhaps a bit toward the tail end. So is Love. Teaming them together makes sense. Meanwhile, the rest of our good players are either not yet at their peak, or just hit the early stages of their peak. They have the time to wait a few years to develop the talent to join them.

I'd wait and see how the season goes first. If the integration of Howard is working out and we look like a 50-win team, I'd ride it. But if we play like last year and continue to look like inconsistent, unreliable, 1st round fodder, then I'd pick up the phone and start talking Wall trades.

[payitforward]

If you go by what he did at the end of the year and the playoffs, Wall looked like a top 10 player. Realistically when healthy he's probably about 15. Last year overall he wasn't in the top 50.

Interesting - so if we go by "point in time" then I would have to agree with you. There are short periods where he plays like a top 20 even top 15 player.

But I could make that same argument for many players.

But those periods are infrequent. If you take him over the last 3 years - I wouldn't give him a top 30 ranking.

But, I can see your perspective that he has top 15 talent. And the notion that he could do that consistently.

But for the reason stated previously, I don't think he can be that player consistently.

We will get to watch this one unfold together

There is no objective measure of "talent." We see great things from John Wall, to be sure -- but why are those things an indication of "talent," whereas we don't view mistakes as being a measure of "talent?" One is not more objective, more inherent to John, than the other. I.e. why don't we say "John Wall has a talent for turnovers."

&, as dckingsfan points out, even if we agree that short bursts can point to talent, they cannot indicate a player's pre-eminence: way more than 20 guys have those bursts, so they can't be evidence that a player should be in the top 20. As Wizards fans, we see Wall's bursts more often than we do those of guys on other teams, so they are more significant to us.

Didn't Randy Foye once score 29 points in a quarter in the NBA? I seem to recall that, but I can't substantiate it via Google....

Whether Wall could play "consistently" (or even "more consistently") at the level of those bursts doesn't seem like a real question to me. Everybody is up & down from night to night, & every player has better stretches & worse ones. For that reason, every player, no matter how great he is, would be better if he played his best "more consistently."

What I don't understand is why it seems imperative to make claims for John Wall beyond what is supported by his almost 20,000 NBA minutes.

[dckingsfan]

The last ~3 pages are not a great read... I think this belongs in the Wall discussion thread but thats just me

dangermouse is right.

Let's carry on any more Wall talk to the Wall thread.

Will do - but the genesis of the discussion was if we should trade Wall and if so, for what.

[nate33]

The last ~3 pages are not a great read... I think this belongs in the Wall discussion thread but thats just me

dangermouse is right.

Let's carry on any more Wall talk to the Wall thread.

Will do - but the genesis of the discussion was if we should trade Wall and if so, for what.

Yeah, I agree. Nobody is at fault for going off on a tangent. It happens all the time. I'm just saying we should cut it off now.

[payitforward]

At present, we have 14 players under contract & are $11m+ over the Luxury Tax. Two questions:

1. Can someone say with certainty: were we or were we not in the tax this last year?

2. What ideas does anyone have for getting out of tax territory this year?

[Dat2U]

If you go by what he did at the end of the year and the playoffs, Wall looked like a top 10 player. Realistically when healthy he's probably about 15. Last year overall he wasn't in the top 50.

This is getting ridiculous.

He most certainly did not look like a top 10 player in the playoffs.

The idea that "when healthy he's probably about 15" is just plain bizarre. In his very best year -- much better than his 2d best year & utterly eclipsing any other year in his career -- he still wasn't as good a PG as Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Steph Curry or Isaiah Thomas. Or Kyle Lowry for that matter.

Oh what blasphemy! But if I gave you the numbers without the names, that's how you'd rate them too. & no matter what way you calculate it, no matter whether it's PER or the dreaded WP48 or absolutely any other metric, it always comes out the same.

& if we composite any 3-year sequence for him vs. any of those point guards, it comes out the same.

As to last year, overall he wasn't in the top 150. Look at the d@#ned numbers! You really think John Wall can be playing with significant injury & he's in the top 10% of players in the league?

How about with his hand tied behind his back? Would that push him down to just above average?

When he's healthy & in his best year, he can crack the top 25 players in the league. Just. Has he shown that he can crack it two years in a row? No. How about 2 years out of 3? No.

For saying these things, I suppose I'll hear that I'm "a John Wall hater." Only, no, I'm not -- he is a terrific player. & in any given moment he can look other-worldly great. But, putting him on a higher level than he deserves does the guy no favors.

It's your method of evaluation vs. mines. Frankly I'm not a fan of solely using production measurement roll ups to determine a player's actual impact. So much is missed, especially in terms of a player's gravity, how much attention defenses pay to a particular player which frees up room for his teammates and definitively on the defensive end where fans of productivity measurements offer zero input outside of defensive rebounding, steals & blocks

[Dat2U]

At present, we have 14 players under contract & are $11m+ over the Luxury Tax. Two questions:

1. Can someone say with certainty: were we or were we not in the tax this last year?

2. What ideas does anyone have for getting out of tax territory this year?

1. Yes.

2. I assume depending on how things go we may see a midseason move to get under - especially if it goes bad.

I think Ted has given the okay to pay the tax for back to back years. It will be quite interesting to see what happens if **** hits the fan this season.

[pcbothwel]

At present, we have 14 players under contract & are $11m+ over the Luxury Tax. Two questions:

1. Can someone say with certainty: were we or were we not in the tax this last year?

2. What ideas does anyone have for getting out of tax territory this year?

Im 98% sure we were in the tax last year, but ill leave that aside.

2) I think Meeks will be easy to move. He makes 3M with his suspension and the league loves elite 3 pt shooters that draw fouls. Meeks does both. Milwaukee could use him and have a TPE w/o going over tax. Same with Pelicans. Kings have caps space.
There are plenty of ways to get under, but how much will they value Morris and Rivers. Those are the two players that make enough to get us under tax, are expiring, and are solid rotation worthy player (especially Kieff).

I wonder what a Kieff + Meeks package could get us.

Trade them to NYK for Lance Thomas and 2020/2021 Charlotte 2nds.
Thomas is owed 8.2M over the next two year (7.2 this year and 1M Guaranteed next). Stretch him over 5 years at 1.6M.
We save 10.4M right there.
Then we only need to send out Jason Smith + Cash and take back less than 5M