OT: Melo signs with Rockets

[og15]

I'm just saying its really weird how the perception is one thing but stats show the complete opposite. Perception is he was the worst defender on the court for OKC but stats show he was the 2nd best in terms of DRTG. And Melo has always been bashed on here for his DRTG being what it was and now that the opposite is true we gotta add some context. Just weird to me.

My point was that this isn't what stats show as it is an incorrect understanding of that stat.

Individual Drtg due to lack of defensive stats to go by assumes that every player is equally good at all the non-statistical defensive things, deflections, contests, charges, altering shots, rotations, etc, etc. Now, none of us actually believes this. So a players Drtg is the team Drtg and it is adjusted based on how well you get steals, blocks and defensive rebounds per minute. So it's basically the per minute steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds stat which is really not telling us who defends well or who does not.

Now of course there will be correlation with a lot of great defenders since many of them do well at those stats, and bigs will almost always be favored by the stat and they have a better chance of excelling at those stats post minutes, but that doesn't mean it is in any way accurately telling us who on the team is defending the best or even who is a good defender or bad one.

I wouldn't dare say he was a good defender in the series because he wasn't but the perception that Utah got what they wanted vs him when DRTG(a stat that shows the opponents production when you're on the court) shows they weren't producing as good when he was on the court. OKC's DRTG was 108 for example. They were better with Melo on the court statistically.

That's NOT what the individual Drtg you see on a players page or a series summary is showing. This is also part of why people always get tripped up, and Basketball Reference should maybe make it clearer, but we should do beget due diligence with stats we reference too .

The stat that shows opponent production when you are on the court is the on/off opponent Ortg. That's the stat you think you are referring to. Individual Drtg that you see on a players profile or in a series summary is a totally different stat.

[og15]

If you go to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/on-off/2018

Then go to playoffs, then look at opponent Ortg, on/off, that is what you think you are citing, but that's not what you are actually citing. On Opponent Ortg is OKC'S Drtg when Melo was on the court and off Opponent Ortg is when he was sitting.

What you are actually citing is just an estimate stat based on team Drtg, steals, blocks and defensive rebounds and a very faulty assumption about players non statistically measured defensive contributions that has to be made just so a stat can be derived.

EDIT: So maybe you're asking why his individual Drtg was so low, well we'll use per 36 to get an idea of his per minute steals, blocks and Dreb.

5.8 dreb/36, 1.9 stl/36 and 0.7 blk/36. So those are some pretty good rates. Paul George for comparison had 4.6, 1.1, and 0.6, so his Drtg would be higher. I believe the stat itself uses per possession which obviously is the same rate, just a different number.

[Rotten Apple]

If you go to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/on-off/2018

Then go to playoffs, then look at opponent Ortg, on/off, that is what you think you are citing, but that's not what you are actually citing. On Opponent Ortg is OKC'S Drtg when Melo was on the court and off Opponent Ortg is when he was sitting.

What you are actually citing is just an estimate stat based on team Drtg, steals, blocks and defensive rebounds and a very faulty assumption about players non statistically measured defensive contributions that has to be made just so a stat can be derived.

EDIT: So maybe you're asking why his individual Drtg was so low, well we'll use per 36 to get an idea of his per minute steals, blocks and Dreb.

5.8 dreb/36, 1.9 stl/36 and 0.7 blk/36. So those are some pretty good rates. Paul George for comparison had 4.6, 1.1, and 0.6, so his Drtg would be higher. I believe the stat itself uses per possession which obviously is the same rate, just a different number.

Nice. Thanks for the info. I knew something just wasn't right with it because that stat didn't match the film like at all.

Even still if DRTG shows points allowed per 100 possessions how are we allowed to take that into context? It has to have some merit as it's usually cited when discussing a players defensive impact.

[DaGawd]

[MaxRider]

Read on Twitter

trade is finally complete
now just waiting for waive and waiver
took a year from 2 yards line to 1st and inch

[MaxRider]

Read on Twitter

back to 2 yards line
second and goal

[OlDirtMcBert]

Remember how everyone keeps saying he was terrible vs Utah defensively?

Well...

Thunder Defensive Rating vs Jazz- Best to Worst

Huestis- 103
Anthony- 106
Westbrook- 106
Abrines- 107
Felton- 109
Brewer- 109
Grant- 109
George- 109
Adams- 110
Patterson- 114
Ferguson-122
Johnson- 126

Unless DRTG doesn't matter on RealGM anymore then okay but he had the 2nd lowest DRTG in the series for the Thunder. His offense was trash as we know playing with Russ but this narrative that he held them back defensively has to stop OR we can stop using advanced stats to judge players. Either or you guys decide.

This doesn’t account for blown coverages AT ALL. Russ is a terrible PnR defender, but no one is as bad as Melo. The dude was a corpse on defense. I watched. That’s how I form my judgement. Not some advanced stat that doesn’t tell the true tale of the tape.

[ThatBoyNick]

Remember how everyone keeps saying he was terrible vs Utah defensively?

Well...

Thunder Defensive Rating vs Jazz- Best to Worst

Huestis- 103
Anthony- 106
Westbrook- 106
Abrines- 107
Felton- 109
Brewer- 109
Grant- 109
George- 109
Adams- 110
Patterson- 114
Ferguson-122
Johnson- 126

Unless DRTG doesn't matter on RealGM anymore then okay but he had the 2nd lowest DRTG in the series for the Thunder. His offense was trash as we know playing with Russ but this narrative that he held them back defensively has to stop OR we can stop using advanced stats to judge players. Either or you guys decide.

This doesn’t account for blown coverages AT ALL. Russ is a terrible PnR defender, but no one is as bad as Melo. The dude was a corpse on defense. I watched. That’s how I form my judgement. Not some advanced stat that doesn’t tell the true tale of the tape.

Well, at least it looks like the man knows how to blow his coverage right into Adams lol.

[og15]

If you go to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/on-off/2018

Then go to playoffs, then look at opponent Ortg, on/off, that is what you think you are citing, but that's not what you are actually citing. On Opponent Ortg is OKC'S Drtg when Melo was on the court and off Opponent Ortg is when he was sitting.

What you are actually citing is just an estimate stat based on team Drtg, steals, blocks and defensive rebounds and a very faulty assumption about players non statistically measured defensive contributions that has to be made just so a stat can be derived.

EDIT: So maybe you're asking why his individual Drtg was so low, well we'll use per 36 to get an idea of his per minute steals, blocks and Dreb.

5.8 dreb/36, 1.9 stl/36 and 0.7 blk/36. So those are some pretty good rates. Paul George for comparison had 4.6, 1.1, and 0.6, so his Drtg would be higher. I believe the stat itself uses per possession which obviously is the same rate, just a different number.

Nice. Thanks for the info. I knew something just wasn't right with it because that stat didn't match the film like at all.

Even still if DRTG shows points allowed per 100 possessions how are we allowed to take that into context? It has to have some merit as it's usually cited when discussing a players defensive impact.

People usually cite it because they believe it is telling them something that it isn't. Tbh I don't think it is a very useful statistic at all, just too much being assumed that it fails the accuracy test, and that's why it also muddies any statistic that has it in its derivation. It's reliable in that the results will be consistent, players on good defensive teams who do well in those stats will have low Drtg, but it is not valid because it's not accurately telling us how well players are actually defending or impacting a teams defense.

It's certainly supposed to be an estimate of a players pts allowed per possession, but obviously with the limited data it uses, it is a generally pretty inaccurate estimate, so what can it really tell us? I would say not much, it will tend to correlate with good defenders because those guys many times do well in those stats per minute, but it certainly can't tell us how well they are defending for their team. It can be very off when you have a guy who is not a good defender but can get those statistics well per minute, especially if they play on a good defensive team (eg: David Lee on the Spurs, etc), and similarly a good defender who doesn't get those statistics.

I personally don't pay much attention to it because I'm not getting any useful info out of it.

[evilpimp972]

He’s going start he won’t be asked to do much than shoot and box out . He gives them a new look on offense .

two things he doesnt do anymore. nice.

2 things that happens with a regularity is
1 ppl become better players playing alongside Harden
2. ppl become better players after leaving westbrook

NOW you put 2 and 2 together
ps
heres a bonus for you
Had melo signed with gsw people would be screaming bloody murder hes ruined the league! (again)

This statement isnt accurate at all.
Anderson didnt have his best season with harden
Neither did Ariza
Or even chris paul
Not sure what youre implying, and yeah, their % are worse with harden
He's a great player but does he really makes his teamates better ?

[BallerTalk]

Read on Twitter

back to 2 yards line
second and goal

Nah, It's in the end zone.

It's just under official review.

[ThatBoyNick]

He's a great player but does he really makes his teamates better ?

... Have you ever watched a Rockets game? Harden runs the offense extremely similar to the way LBJ does. You will get to experience that first hand this upcoming season, and the answer is, of course, he makes his teammates better. You don't have the success Harden has had leading a team if you can't make your teammates better. 2 WCF, 54 + 55 + 56 + 65 win teams in the past 5 seasons in an extremely competitive conference and division.

The reason players shooting %'s can dip with the Rockets is due to the significant spike in 3PA relative to their career averages, but if you look closer you will see multiple career high TS% because overall they are more efficient with the increased 3's and layups.

Paul, Ariza, Anderson, Tucker, Moute, Nene, Green and Tucker all shot higher TS%'s then their career averages last season.

That is literally our entire rotation minus Capela, who I won't count as he has never played a season without Harden. But needless to say, Clint led the league in FG% last season.

[OlDirtMcBert]

If you go to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/on-off/2018

Then go to playoffs, then look at opponent Ortg, on/off, that is what you think you are citing, but that's not what you are actually citing. On Opponent Ortg is OKC'S Drtg when Melo was on the court and off Opponent Ortg is when he was sitting.

What you are actually citing is just an estimate stat based on team Drtg, steals, blocks and defensive rebounds and a very faulty assumption about players non statistically measured defensive contributions that has to be made just so a stat can be derived.

EDIT: So maybe you're asking why his individual Drtg was so low, well we'll use per 36 to get an idea of his per minute steals, blocks and Dreb.

5.8 dreb/36, 1.9 stl/36 and 0.7 blk/36. So those are some pretty good rates. Paul George for comparison had 4.6, 1.1, and 0.6, so his Drtg would be higher. I believe the stat itself uses per possession which obviously is the same rate, just a different number.

Nice. Thanks for the info. I knew something just wasn't right with it because that stat didn't match the film like at all.

Even still if DRTG shows points allowed per 100 possessions how are we allowed to take that into context? It has to have some merit as it's usually cited when discussing a players defensive impact.

People usually cite it because they believe it is telling them something that it isn't. Tbh I don't think it is a very useful statistic at all, just too much being assumed that it fails the accuracy test, and that's why it also muddies any statistic that has it in its derivation. It's reliable in that the results will be consistent, players on good defensive teams who do well in those stats will have low Drtg, but it is not valid because it's not accurately telling us how well players are actually defending or impacting a teams defense.

It's certainly supposed to be an estimate of a players pts allowed per possession, but obviously with the limited data it uses, it is a generally pretty inaccurate estimate, so what can it really tell us? I would say not much, it will tend to correlate with good defenders because those guys many times do well in those stats per minute, but it certainly can't tell us how well they are defending for their team. It can be very off when you have a guy who is not a good defender but can get those statistics well per minute, especially if they play on a good defensive team (eg: David Lee on the Spurs, etc), and similarly a good defender who doesn't get those statistics.

I personally don't pay much attention to it because I'm not getting any useful info out of it.

Absolutely. Adams’ rating is lowered from blown coverages up top, and that’ll affect his advanced stats. It doesn’t go from the basket outward. Melo and Russ should have far, far lower ratings.

Guys like Derrick Favors absolutely abusing Melo is how you should judge him. A so-called HoFer should not get destroyed because he’s a little outmuscled. He could’ve fought for position on block outs, but simply didn’t have the fight or grit. Watch the number of second chance points he gives up. It’s almost like a joke. It’s fine if he’s outmuscled/outsized, but not if he demands to start and play starter minutes. Melo is not going to eat into a guy PG13’s minutes, and quite frankly shouldn’t have eaten into a hustle/defense 1st guy either unless he’s the main scoring cog. The Rockets would be wise to keep Tucker on the floor during crunch time minutes or Melo will be the minus player. That’s the truth of the matter now. Early in his career he was great. But he could’ve been a hell of a lot better. Now, his bad habits (soft intangibles) really show up on film.

[Rotten Apple]

If you go to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01/on-off/2018

Then go to playoffs, then look at opponent Ortg, on/off, that is what you think you are citing, but that's not what you are actually citing. On Opponent Ortg is OKC'S Drtg when Melo was on the court and off Opponent Ortg is when he was sitting.

What you are actually citing is just an estimate stat based on team Drtg, steals, blocks and defensive rebounds and a very faulty assumption about players non statistically measured defensive contributions that has to be made just so a stat can be derived.

EDIT: So maybe you're asking why his individual Drtg was so low, well we'll use per 36 to get an idea of his per minute steals, blocks and Dreb.

5.8 dreb/36, 1.9 stl/36 and 0.7 blk/36. So those are some pretty good rates. Paul George for comparison had 4.6, 1.1, and 0.6, so his Drtg would be higher. I believe the stat itself uses per possession which obviously is the same rate, just a different number.

Nice. Thanks for the info. I knew something just wasn't right with it because that stat didn't match the film like at all.

Even still if DRTG shows points allowed per 100 possessions how are we allowed to take that into context? It has to have some merit as it's usually cited when discussing a players defensive impact.

People usually cite it because they believe it is telling them something that it isn't. Tbh I don't think it is a very useful statistic at all, just too much being assumed that it fails the accuracy test, and that's why it also muddies any statistic that has it in its derivation. It's reliable in that the results will be consistent, players on good defensive teams who do well in those stats will have low Drtg, but it is not valid because it's not accurately telling us how well players are actually defending or impacting a teams defense.

It's certainly supposed to be an estimate of a players pts allowed per possession, but obviously with the limited data it uses, it is a generally pretty inaccurate estimate, so what can it really tell us? I would say not much, it will tend to correlate with good defenders because those guys many times do well in those stats per minute, but it certainly can't tell us how well they are defending for their team. It can be very off when you have a guy who is not a good defender but can get those statistics well per minute, especially if they play on a good defensive team (eg: David Lee on the Spurs, etc), and similarly a good defender who doesn't get those statistics.

I personally don't pay much attention to it because I'm not getting any useful info out of it.

Good stuff, thanks for the insight OG

[Bruteque]

Absolutely. Adams’ rating is lowered from blown coverages up top, and that’ll affect his advanced stats. It doesn’t go from the basket outward. Melo and Russ should have far, far lower ratings.

Guys like Derrick Favors absolutely abusing Melo is how you should judge him. A so-called HoFer should not get destroyed because he’s a little outmuscled. He could’ve fought for position on block outs, but simply didn’t have the fight or grit. Watch the number of second chance points he gives up. It’s almost like a joke. It’s fine if he’s outmuscled/outsized, but not if he demands to start and play starter minutes. Melo is not going to eat into a guy PG13’s minutes, and quite frankly shouldn’t have eaten into a hustle/defense 1st guy either unless he’s the main scoring cog. The Rockets would be wise to keep Tucker on the floor during crunch time minutes or Melo will be the minus player. That’s the truth of the matter now. Early in his career he was great. But he could’ve been a hell of a lot better. Now, his bad habits (soft intangibles) really show up on film.

It's as I pointed out in the Capela contract discussion, Derrick Favors is a very good player with some actual offensive skills, unlike Capela.

Injuries in the two seasons prior have put him under the radar, but he's been pretty healthy this year and not only has he not been a scrub, he's actually been a key piece for UTA taking a leap this year. Favors abuses smaller defenders, good or bad. He's been quite a source of mismatch for UTA this year. That was not exactly an outlier to use against Melo, as if he was getting abused by a player that wasn't that good at abusing non-Melo defenders of Melo's size. He was abusing everybody GSW threw at him in their regular not-so-big lineup last year (he was shooting > 70% against them if I remember correctly). I actually don't think UTA exploited Favors enough when they could.

That was also the puzzling thing in the HOU-UTA playoff series. Favors scored quite easily against the defenders HOU switched onto him in the very few instances where UTA actually let him use possessions. It was like UTA was intentionally minimizing Favors in that series in favor of their other players. Had they gone to him more, I think that HOU series might have been...interesting.

Well, there's always next year.

[Rocketsbaby]

You could take James Harden or Chris Paul off the team and we'd still make the playoffs....

It's like people forget that HOU won 55 with Harden, Gordon, and Anderson as their three leading scores for most of a season before CP3 even joined the party.

Now they think there is a significant chance for SEVEN teams with 49 or fewer wins last year to overtake a 65-win team simply because they replaced Ariza and half a regular season of "good" Mbah a Moute with Melo, Ennis, MCW, Melton, Hartenstein. Etc. Yeah, one is a 35-win team that added LeBron, but c'mon. We are talking about a 65-win team they are expecting all these sub-50 teams to overtake.

All I can say is that the Suns are obviously underpaying Ariza by about $20m a year.

And harden basically won 56 in 14-15 by himself. People really seem to forget how many games harden led teams win year in and year out. Only time they underachieved was dwights last yr

yeah a Harden team virtually by himself annoits you as a top 5 offense and you aren't missing the playoffs with a top 5 offense period.

[Rocketsbaby]

Most GMs in would rather slip Melo into another team’s rotation than a poison pill. He’s that bad at 75% of the game basketball. He can still score, but he’ll give up twice as much as he earns. He barely makes it over mid court for the defensive possessions, and his team would be better off if he didn’t even bother. I hope he signs with Houston, because it’d be a clear sign that window is closing up quick.

But statistically this wasn't true last year.

He was roughly 1.4 on offense and -0.8 on defense.

I really don't like Melo as a player but we are talking about a team where he's at best the 3rd option and really more like the 4th behind Capela's rim runs... he's going to have all the wide open shots you could imagine and he's not going to be asked to do much whatsoever. If he just stands in the corner, gets out of the way, and shoots 36% from 3 with decent playmaking he's still an effective offensive player.

I love Trevor Ariza over the course of his career. He was a very, very good player for years. But he's closer to DONE than great these days. He's extremely limited and basically a neutral offensive and defensive player. His defensive reputation is just that, a reputation based on years of previous outstanding play. Carmelo is a clear upgrade on offense and downgrade on defense, but not by anywhere near the severity that most people are imagining.

Now that said, Carmelo's legs are clearly not spry any longer. We don't know exactly what we are going to get. But considering we win most games by 20+ points I think going to a team where he doesn't have to play heavy minutes and can take a few nights off will really help his efficiency.

[Rocketsbaby]

I just want to be very clear here. For a non-insignificant stretch of last season before Roberson went down with injury, OKC had the very best defense in the NBA.

Now Melo was certainly not the reason behind that #1 defense, but it goes to show that your defense is not automatically crap with him in the game.

Any defense that features Chris Paul at PG and Clint Capela at center is going to give you a chance to be competitive at that end. Newsflash in 2018 wing defenders aren't THAT important. What's important is that your center isn't a giant liability against the PNR and that your PG/C combo is not constantly compromising your defense to the point where you have to overhelp.

If you are strong enough at the PG/C position your defense can absolutely be top 5 without premeire wing defenders. A lot of wing defenders are extremely overrated. The hustle of guys like Marcus Smart/Avery Bradley/etc is very appealing visually but tends not to affect your team's defensive efficiency to anywhere near the degree that most people assume. When it comes down to it a lot of NBA players are going to make or miss shots based on their ability and just general randomness/noise. Sure a hard close out is preferrable to a soft one. But you don't beat Golden State simply by making hard close outs in the corner. They are going to break you down regardless with their passing/shooting ability. Simply not giving them an immense advantage at the point of attack (say by starting a guy like Enes Kanter or Isaiah Thomas) is worth 10x more than all but the most ELITE wing defenders in the league.

It's not the Rockets intention to build the #1 defense in basketball. It's our intention to have the #1 offense in basketball and make enough stops to outscore you.

Now, I certainly have some doubts as to whether this team can beat Golden State as currently constructed. While Ariza is no longer a great player, he certainly provides the type of length and switchy wing you need against Golden State. Losing Mbah Moute hurts a lot as well (though he was worthless in this series last year due to injury).

We still have our MLE and you can bet we'll be aggressively monitoring the G-league, buyout candidates, potential trades, etc.

People really underrate how much an under the radar addition like Royce O'Neale for example can really alter a team's compositon.

[Rocketsbaby]

....sure buddy great analogy ...i can already picture your fan base hella salty if melo ever lights up okc

If he balls out with Houston then that doesn't suddenly rewrite history with OKC, where he was given a much bigger role than his play deserved.

He is clearly accepting a role that he wasn't prepared to accept with the Thunder, and with it will come with much less pressure. So it wouldn't surprise me if he contributes off the bench.

Are we sure hes coming off the bench?

Honestly I do not want Carmelo coming off the bench. I believe he is a much better fit with our starting lineup where Harden/Paul initiate all the offense. The bench mob allows Eric Gordon to go to work and he's coming off one of the most productive offensive seasons in league history so the last thing I want is Carmelo to upset the apple cart.

[whocurrz]

If he balls out with Houston then that doesn't suddenly rewrite history with OKC, where he was given a much bigger role than his play deserved.

He is clearly accepting a role that he wasn't prepared to accept with the Thunder, and with it will come with much less pressure. So it wouldn't surprise me if he contributes off the bench.

Are we sure hes coming off the bench?

Honestly I do not want Carmelo coming off the bench. I believe he is a much better fit with our starting lineup where Harden/Paul initiate all the offense. The bench mob allows Eric Gordon to go to work and he's coming off one of the most productive offensive seasons in league history so the last thing I want is Carmelo to upset the apple cart.

Agree with most of your points but that bolded part is not remotely true