Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 7

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Some Cliffs:

shyt started getting weird when Kawhi made his first allstar team and saw how other stars were getting treated.

Tony Parker organized the players-only meeting.
In the meeting, Kawhi said he'd do anything for his teammates, but not for the organization.

The meeting with Pop only lasted 10 minutes

Kawhi genuinely believed he was going to come back and play last year.

Spurs will change the way they play due to lack of long-range shooters.

It's going to be ugly when Kawhi plays his first game back in SA.

[trast66]

Carrying this forward...

Note: this is just a regular season win SWAG! Nothing more
Note: I have more playoff teams than there are slots - I am too much a wimp to cut one of them.
Note: I have us 5th - but we could easily be 4th to 9th. I wouldn't disagree with you on any of those spots.

Playoff teams - Probably win more games than we do
Boston, Philly, Toronto, Indy

========

Wizards

========

Playoff teams - homer in me says we will win more games
Charlotte, Detroit, Milwaukee, Miami

========

Cleveland, Atlanta, Orlando, Chicago, Brooklyn, NY

CBS clearly doesn't agree with me, definitely don't think Toronto wins more games than the Celtics or that we only win 37 - guess they think the Dwight experiment will end badly.Interesting that they would come out with their projections this early - both June and July:

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-win-total-odds-how-every-teams-2018-19-projections-have-changed-since-the-end-of-last-season/

Code: Select all

Team                  Wins
Toronto Raptors       58.4
Boston Celtics        56.4
Philadelphia 76ers    53.7
Indiana Pacers        49.0
Detroit Pistons       41.7
Miami Heat            41.6
Milwaukee Bucks       41.6
Washington Wizards    37.3
Atlanta Hawks         35.4
Brooklyn Nets         33.5
New York Knicks       33.2
Charlotte Hornets     30.6
Orlando Magic         29.3
Cleveland Cavaliers   25.6
Chicago Bulls         19.7


Some of those projections are absurd. The hawks win 35 games?

[payitforward]

Really a shame to miss on Holmes. A good player at a bargain price.

Unless I'm mistaken, he's going to be a UFA next offseason.

True. All the same, this year he is making $1.6m.

Last year we traded an asset to get Tim Frazier & pay him $2m to be a UFA the next off-season.
Last year we signed Mike Scott & paid him $1.6m to be a UFA the next off season.
This year ditto the 32 year old Jeff Green.

As I say, it was a shame to miss on Holmes. A good player at a bargain price.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

No comments on Kevin Love’s crazy contract? Was it to retain a building piece for FA 2019?

What if I were to tell you that in relative terms Kevin Love Is Almost the equal of John Wall. Minnesota Kevin Love was probably better then the best long season John Wall. God mode John Wall is a superior Supreme athlete. Kevin Love should have been a wizard at some point because he was named after West tonsil.


It is really late. Autocorrect is suck.

Kevin Wesley love. Spam love Stan Love was a team mate of Wes unseld. Kevin Love rebounds and he also throws Outlet passes the same as big West. Love has three-point range. He would look really good on the Wizards uniform right about now because we have Dwight Howard at Center.

Kevin Love has a very reasonable contract if you look at John Wall being a super max player. Of course that's my opinion so I won't say in my opinion. In about 7 hours maybe I will edit those mistakes above

Sent from my LG-TP260 using RealGM mobile app

[verbal8]

I think Boston may have missed an opportunity.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/250823/Celtics-Reportedly-Offered-Several-Of-Their-Best-Draft-Assets-To-Spurs-For-Kawhi-Leonard

I am also curious what they could offer in terms of salary if they weren't offering a top 5 player(s).

I think they should have been willing to deal a starter, offering Irving or Hayward would have made a lot of sense and been a better offer than DeRozan.

[Ruzious]

Really a shame to miss on Holmes. A good player at a bargain price.

Unless I'm mistaken, he's going to be a UFA next offseason.

True. All the same, this year he is making $1.6m.

Last year we traded an asset to get Tim Frazier & pay him $2m to be a UFA the next off-season.
Last year we signed Mike Scott & paid him $1.6m to be a UFA the next off season.
This year ditto the 32 year old Jeff Green.

As I say, it was a shame to miss on Holmes. A good player at a bargain price.

Even if the Wiz had traded for Holmes, realistically he probably wouldn't get any significant playing time. The shame remains the Mahinmi contract - an amazingly horrible signing.

[FAH1223]

I think Boston may have missed an opportunity.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/250823/Celtics-Reportedly-Offered-Several-Of-Their-Best-Draft-Assets-To-Spurs-For-Kawhi-Leonard

I am also curious what they could offer in terms of salary if they weren't offering a top 5 player(s).

I think they should have been willing to deal a starter, offering Irving or Hayward would have made a lot of sense and been a better offer than DeRozan.

Read on Twitter

Spurs probably wanted a healthy player. Hayward and Kyrie are both returning from injury. Irving is a free agent in 2019 too though he and Kawhi could have been traded for each other straight up since salaries match.

I bet the Celtics wanted to offer those picks plus a combination of Morris, Rozier, Smart (re-signed on QO or new deal), Ojeleye, and Yabusele if it was without Irving.

So basically, no Tatum or Brown.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I think Boston may have missed an opportunity.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/250823/Celtics-Reportedly-Offered-Several-Of-Their-Best-Draft-Assets-To-Spurs-For-Kawhi-Leonard

I am also curious what they could offer in terms of salary if they weren't offering a top 5 player(s).

I think they should have been willing to deal a starter, offering Irving or Hayward would have made a lot of sense and been a better offer than DeRozan.

I'm guessing they were trying to peddle Marcus Smart in a sign and trade. Marcus Smart for the kind of contract that would have worked for Kawhi Leonard in return... yuck.

As for "several of their best draft assets," the Celtics have a Clippers 1st that turns into a 2nd rounder if the Clippers don't make the playoffs in the next 2 seasons, and their own picks are going to be terrible. They have exactly 2 good draft assets. One is the Kings/Sixers pick, where they get the Kings pick unless the Kings win the #1 spot at which point they get the Sixers pick. Well, the Kings are going to be awful but they aren't going to be tanking because they don't control their own pick, so this is closer to last year's Brooklyn pick the Celtics traded to the Cavs: likely to be a middling lottery pick unless the Kings win the 2nd or 3rd pick. They also have a Grizzlies pick who's protections are top 8, top 6, then unprotected. Again, the Grizzlies aren't normally a tanking team, so I think it's likely that they wind up giving up a pick either this year or next, so a very good pick, but not a top lottery pick or anything. And that's the end of their draft assets.

If the Celtics weren't willing to put the likes of Brown or Tatum into the trade, they'd have had a very hard time beating the Raptors' offer. Hayward had one good season and then was injured for a season afterwards. If he's the same Hayward he was in his first several seasons rather than his final season in Utah, he isn't better than Derozan, and he hasn't played yet after missing last season. Irving is a bit better than Demar, but they're closer to the same ballpark than is often suggested. Neither are good defenders, and while Irving was more efficient in Boston last season, historically he hasn't been nearly so efficient, and he's both more injury prone than Demar, has complained more than Demar, and is a free agent after a single season and is already talking about leaving... just like some Leonard guy. Poeltl was recently a top 10 pick, and he's shown himself reasonably thus far. I'm not so sure he's really so different than the Grizzlies or Kings picks at this point. Ainge did his Ainge thing and played conservative. Normally, blame him, but this time I'm not so sure. I don't think Kawhi was the right gamble for the Celtics given the timing involved.

[nate33]

I think Boston may have missed an opportunity.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/250823/Celtics-Reportedly-Offered-Several-Of-Their-Best-Draft-Assets-To-Spurs-For-Kawhi-Leonard

I am also curious what they could offer in terms of salary if they weren't offering a top 5 player(s).

I think they should have been willing to deal a starter, offering Irving or Hayward would have made a lot of sense and been a better offer than DeRozan.

I'm guessing they were trying to peddle Marcus Smart in a sign and trade. Marcus Smart for the kind of contract that would have worked for Kawhi Leonard in return... yuck.

As for "several of their best draft assets," the Celtics have a Clippers 1st that turns into a 2nd rounder if the Clippers don't make the playoffs in the next 2 seasons, and their own picks are going to be terrible. They have exactly 2 good draft assets. One is the Kings/Sixers pick, where they get the Kings pick unless the Kings win the #1 spot at which point they get the Sixers pick. Well, the Kings are going to be awful but they aren't going to be tanking because they don't control their own pick, so this is closer to last year's Brooklyn pick the Celtics traded to the Cavs: likely to be a middling lottery pick unless the Kings win the 2nd or 3rd pick. They also have a Grizzlies pick who's protections are top 8, top 6, then unprotected. Again, the Grizzlies aren't normally a tanking team, so I think it's likely that they wind up giving up a pick either this year or next, so a very good pick, but not a top lottery pick or anything. And that's the end of their draft assets.

If the Celtics weren't willing to put the likes of Brown or Tatum into the trade, they'd have had a very hard time beating the Raptors' offer. Hayward had one good season and then was injured for a season afterwards. If he's the same Hayward he was in his first several seasons rather than his final season in Utah, he isn't better than Derozan, and he hasn't played yet after missing last season. Irving is a bit better than Demar, but they're closer to the same ballpark than is often suggested. Neither are good defenders, and while Irving was more efficient in Boston last season, historically he hasn't been nearly so efficient, and he's both more injury prone than Demar, has complained more than Demar, and is a free agent after a single season and is already talking about leaving... just like some Leonard guy. Poeltl was recently a top 10 pick, and he's shown himself reasonably thus far. I'm not so sure he's really so different than the Grizzlies or Kings picks at this point. Ainge did his Ainge thing and played conservative. Normally, blame him, but this time I'm not so sure. I don't think Kawhi was the right gamble for the Celtics given the timing involved.

I think you are understating the value of that Kings pick and the Memphis pick. That Kings pick in particular is very valuable. I don't care that they aren't trying to tank. The Kings are horrible and play in a stacked conference. They're going to finish in the bottom 5. And Memphis probably can't make the playoffs even if they try. And there's a high probability that one or both of Conley/Gasol miss a ton of games, rendering them a bottom 10 team.

You make a good point about Derozan versus Kyrie though. Kyrie is a bit better, but Derozan is durable and locked into a longer contract. That said, if Ainge offered Kyrie AND the Kings pick, I'd have taken that over the Toronto package. Kyrie is much younger than Derozan and that Kings pick could be top 5 and yield a star. Two young stars for Kawhi is a great haul given the circumstances.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Fair enough. Were they offering both at the same time, or just a choice and then a bunch of 2nd rounders? Based on Ainge's statement, the only logical salary that would fit in terms of what they were offering was Marcus Smart in a sign and trade. The Spurs clearly didn't want to tank, and it would have been hard to do with Aldridge on their roster, too. How bad do you think the Spurs wanted either of those picks while paying Marcus Smart $15 million per year or whatever it would have taken him to agree to the trade while making the trade work?

As for the Kings pick specifically, the lottery is top 3 but the Sixers get it if it's 1, so it's exponentially more valuable if the Kings win the 2nd or 3rd pick, only. The Kings are going to be bad. Make no mistake about it. But they also won 27 games last season and I don't really see a reason to expect them not to roughly win the same amount this season. Winning 27 games probably puts them somewhere from 4th to 6th worst in the league - I think teams like Hawks, Magic, Nets and Suns all have equally putrid rosters to try and win with, and all of them are have their own draft picks this season so will likely be trying to lose later on, and there are going to be some teams like the Bulls or Mavs or Grizzlies that pull the plug after a player or two get injured. Not tanking doesn't make the Kings a good team, but it does make it likely that they win 28 games when a bunch of other teams win 27 games, even if they're in the western conference.

As for the Grizzlies, I absolutely agree it's possible they suck, but if they suck, the odds of them being worse than the Kings are reasonably high, as we saw this past season. It's a double edged sword that way. And the Grizzlies basically have to be a bottom 5 team 3 years in a row for that pick to really be worth it. It absolutely could happen because that team is horribly managed and paper thin, but those odds are longer than it seems on the surface.

So if they win 1st overall, sucks to be whoever has that pick. If they win 2nd or 3rd, amazing! If they don't win any of the top 3 picks, they're probably in the range of 5th through 8th somewhere. That's a very good range, but it isn't the same as trading for a known quantity of where that pick will fall.

As for Kyrie and the Kings pick. I think that would have been an interesting discussion at least. I don't think Ainge went there, and maybe he should have, but at the very least I don't see that offer as blowing the Raptors' offer out of the water - if it's better, and I'd accept that, it's only marginally better. Billy King is gone. Colangelo is gone. Here's hoping the league is done with these ridiculous GMs that trade picks with such limited protections for no good reason.

Edit:

There are currently 5 future 1st round draft picks that have been traded in the NBA that don't have some sort of top 10-ish or better protection until they turn into 2nd rounders on them. The Celtics currently have 40% of that market. Hopefully teams smarten up on that front. The other 3 are a Bucks pick owed to the Suns that is likely going to be conveyed this season as the Bucks should make the playoffs, a Dallas pick owed to the Hawks because the Mavs wanted Doncic, and an unprotected 1st rounder the Heat owe to the Sixers because Pat Riley doesn't care about the future anymore and really wanted Goran Dragic.

[trast66]

I wouldn’t have traded much for one year of Kawhi and I’m sure Ainge did not offer anything he truly valued. Are we sure Kawhi is still good, healthy, and mentally stable? It is a “contract year” for him so I guess will see his best possible effort for one year.

I thought this cat was MVP in 16/17.

[payitforward]

Hawks signed the perennial Vince Carter. Guy is amazing. In his 20th season he played over 1000 minutes at an average or better NBA level.

They also signed Daniel Hamilton. The Thunder bought a R2 pick to take him in 2016. Hamilton shoots the 3 at 40% & gets 11+ assists per 40 minutes. Of course, he's only played 28 minutes total so it might not hold up.

Joking aside, the eye test shows a long, athletic 2-3 who can shoot. I can see why OKC liked him.

[payitforward]

The Carmelo Anthony trade illustrates the effect on teams of the Luxury tax:

The Thunder sends Anthony & a partially protected 2022 R1 pick to Atlanta.

Atlanta sends Schroder to OKC & Muscala to Philly.

Philly sends Justin Anderson to Atlanta & Luwawu-Cabarrot to OKC.

Atlanta waives Anthony, who signs with Houston.

I can see it for Philly: at no net $$ cost, they send out 2 Colangelo mistakes, clear a roster space, & take back a guy with ankle problems but who is expiring.

I can see it for Atlanta too. They pay Anthony but save overall b/c of Schroder's contract.

As to OKC... I think Presti has altogether lost his touch. Why he acquired Melo & his mammoth salary in the first place I will never understand. Signing Paul George to a massive overpay meant that he had to dump Melo at any price. He's taken on Schroder who has $45m coming over 3 years & has not looked good at all in his 5 years. & likely cost himself a R1 pick.

[nate33]

The Carmelo Anthony trade illustrates the effect on teams of the Luxury tax:

The Thunder sends Anthony & a partially protected 2022 R1 pick to Atlanta.

Atlanta sends Schroder to OKC & Muscala to Philly.

Philly sends Justin Anderson to Atlanta & Luwawu-Cabarrot to OKC.

Atlanta waives Anthony, who signs with Houston.

I can see it for Philly: at no net $$ cost, they send out 2 Colangelo mistakes, clear a roster space, & take back a guy with ankle problems but who is expiring.

I can see it for Atlanta too. They pay Anthony but save overall b/c of Schroder's contract.

As to OKC... I think Presti has altogether lost his touch. Why he acquired Melo & his mammoth salary in the first place I will never understand. Signing Paul George to a massive overpay meant that he had to dump Melo at any price. He's taken on Schroder who has $45m coming over 3 years & has not looked good at all in his 5 years. & likely cost himself a R1 pick.

Yup. Presti has been downright Ernie Grunfeldian of late. That Carmelo acquisition was as bad as Ernie's summer of 2016.

[pcbothwel]

The Carmelo Anthony trade illustrates the effect on teams of the Luxury tax:

The Thunder sends Anthony & a partially protected 2022 R1 pick to Atlanta.

Atlanta sends Schroder to OKC & Muscala to Philly.

Philly sends Justin Anderson to Atlanta & Luwawu-Cabarrot to OKC.

Atlanta waives Anthony, who signs with Houston.

I can see it for Philly: at no net $$ cost, they send out 2 Colangelo mistakes, clear a roster space, & take back a guy with ankle problems but who is expiring.

I can see it for Atlanta too. They pay Anthony but save overall b/c of Schroder's contract.

As to OKC... I think Presti has altogether lost his touch. Why he acquired Melo & his mammoth salary in the first place I will never understand. Signing Paul George to a massive overpay meant that he had to dump Melo at any price. He's taken on Schroder who has $45m coming over 3 years & has not looked good at all in his 5 years. & likely cost himself a R1 pick.

Agreed. Terrance Ferguson was someone who intrigued me, but seems to be the opposite of Troy Brown (Frail, Highly athletic, provides nothing but shooting...maybe).
Patrick Patterson was ballyhooed as some great get last year, and now hes unplayable.

Think about that. Ole Great Presti has...
Schroder (15.5M), Abrines (5.4M), Singler (5M), and Patterson (5.5M) = 32M
Compared to:
Mahinmi (15.5M), Rivers (12M), and Smith (5.5M) = 33M

Jesus, when you consider Schroder has 3 more years... our pile of negatives are actually better.
And Brown looks like a much better prospect than Ferguson

[I_Like_Dirt]

Yup. Presti has been downright Ernie Grunfeldian of late. That Carmelo acquisition was as bad as Ernie's summer of 2016.

Honestly, though, I feel Presti has always been this way. He certainly gets credit for all his draft picks, but short of getting really, really lucky during some tanking years, he hasn't been very good. What if he didn't hit the jackpot and get 3 MVPs in Durant, Harden and Westbrook and instead did extremely well for himself and got 3 very good players who weren't MVPs in Wall, Beal and Porter? The only real separation I can see from Presti and Grunfeld is that Presti seems to have realized the value in draft picks to fill out the back end of the roster cheaply, but he still way overpays veteran role players. Mahinmi is basically the 2.0 version of Kendrick Perkins. Presti has had some pretty significant hits outside the top 5 - specifically Ibaka and Adams - but he's been pretty hit and miss there overall. Presti built what was potentially a future dynasty that fell apart because he couldn't figure out how to keep it together under the tax while paying his supporting cast more than he needed to and offloading a star instead. I'd say he's better than Ernie, but he's not that much better. And the real issue with Ernie isn't that he's totally incompetent, it's that he's just good enough not to actually be good, but also not bad enough to be an obvious candidate for a pink slip.

[Rafael122]

Presti's biggest mistake was thinking the cap was never going to go up. He could have kept Harden but they didn't want to pay the tax and now they got a $230 million bill coming next season.

Also, I do think the Kings pick is valuable, I just don't know if it's going to be a situation where you think it's going to land in the top 4 but it ends up being the 8th pick.

I think Atlanta, Chicago, Orlando, maybe Phoenix, maybe Dallas all have a shot at being worse than Sacramento.

[Ruzious]

The Carmelo Anthony trade illustrates the effect on teams of the Luxury tax:

The Thunder sends Anthony & a partially protected 2022 R1 pick to Atlanta.

Atlanta sends Schroder to OKC & Muscala to Philly.

Philly sends Justin Anderson to Atlanta & Luwawu-Cabarrot to OKC.

Atlanta waives Anthony, who signs with Houston.

I can see it for Philly: at no net $$ cost, they send out 2 Colangelo mistakes, clear a roster space, & take back a guy with ankle problems but who is expiring.

I can see it for Atlanta too. They pay Anthony but save overall b/c of Schroder's contract.

As to OKC... I think Presti has altogether lost his touch. Why he acquired Melo & his mammoth salary in the first place I will never understand. Signing Paul George to a massive overpay meant that he had to dump Melo at any price. He's taken on Schroder who has $45m coming over 3 years & has not looked good at all in his 5 years. & likely cost himself a R1 pick.

Agreed. Terrance Ferguson was someone who intrigued me, but seems to be the opposite of Troy Brown (Frail, Highly athletic, provides nothing but shooting...maybe).
Patrick Patterson was ballyhooed as some great get last year, and now hes unplayable.

Think about that. Ole Great Presti has...
Schroder (15.5M), Abrines (5.4M), Singler (5M), and Patterson (5.5M) = 32M
Compared to:
Mahinmi (15.5M), Rivers (12M), and Smith (5.5M) = 33M

Jesus, when you consider Schroder has 3 more years... our pile of negatives are actually better.
And Brown looks like a much better prospect than Ferguson

While Schroeder's not worth his salary, he's the one guy there that's a fairly good player. He did average 22.5 points and 7.2 assists per 40 minutes, and while he was awful from 3, he made 48% of his 2's and 85% of his FT's.

[pcbothwel]

Good, not great passer. Poor shooter and defender. Savvy scoring with floaters, drawing fouls, etc...
So he is a slightly poor mans Ramon Sessions... For 45M+ over the next 3 years... essshhh

http://bkref.com/tiny/ui9R1

[doclinkin]

Really a shame to miss on Holmes. A good player at a bargain price.

Unless I'm mistaken, he's going to be a UFA next offseason.

True. All the same, this year he is making $1.6m.

Last year we traded an asset to get Tim Frazier & pay him $2m to be a UFA the next off-season.
Last year we signed Mike Scott & paid him $1.6m to be a UFA the next off season.
This year ditto the 32 year old Jeff Green.

As I say, it was a shame to miss on Holmes. A good player at a bargain price.

100% agreement on this. I wanted us to draft him. Have watched him from a distance as a player who would fit well next to John. And at that price? Come on.