Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[payitforward]

Dat -- lets drop this exchange about stats. In the off-season everyone takes everything too far. I mean that I do!

Sorry.

Made my last post before reading this.

And stop confusing me with Dat2U

-- it was w/ Dat that this little controversy began. I assumed I'd hear back from him & obviously didn't pay attention to whose post I was reading. Forgive me, I'm an idiot from time to time....

I could go on at length to counter your points, nate -- the main counter being that every player's numbers change every year, & these changes were not different in character, not more telling, not more univocally in an arrowed direction (i.e. pointing to John Wall) than any other year of his career (when that would have been impossible).

As well, & from the logical POV critically, facts that can be explained in more than one way (e.g. the coaches told him they wanted him to take more 3-point shots, so he did) can't be adduced to one explanation vs. the other w/o finding other information on which to base the conclusion.

One other point -- this one not about Pierce or Wall: attributing a player's success to another player has a matching pair in the other direction. Namely, saying that a guy's numbers don't matter: just because he posted good numbers doesn't mean they contributed. This is the "empty stats" argument.

In both directions -- & in many other fields as well! -- each of these practices is employed as rhetoric, i.e. to drive a desired & pre-defined conclusion. A similar, maybe more obvious, rhetorical pair is the one fans often apply to a rookie that their team didn't pick but who is playing a lot better than the guy they picked:

If he went to a good team -- "the reason he's playing so well is because he's on the Blips -- a terrific team where he's getting great coaching, etc."

If he went to a bad team -- "the reason he's playing so well is because he's on the Blops -- a terrible team where he's getting playing time & can show what he's capable of."

I used to hear the former about Kawhi Leonard all the time, & the latter is pretty much ubiquitous (& also combines well w/ the "empty stats" trope).

Edit: I like discussions of rhetoric & logic. I studied a lot of philosophy, & I'm a writer. There could be a thread on the subject, organized around the question of how to evaluate players. But, I'm not going to start it, & I don't see it being interesting to very many of us. For sure, we shouldn't go on about the subject in the trade thread, right?

[Dat2U]

The only reason I haven't responded is this **** site is a piece of **** on mobile devices! I can't **** type more than a few sentences without my browser freezing!

[NatP4]

I’ll type up a few paragraphs just to see my browser crash and all of it disappear. It’s infuriating

[DCZards]

God no. You're kidding, right?

How about we give you Markieff for nothing?

Hell, we will include a 2nd rounder with him.

Dude, how quickly we forget a guy how Kieff was top 10 in RPM when healthy...
Now you would trade 2nd to get rid of him and his expiring 8M salary?!?

He has his flaws which are obvious, but has hasnt been the locker room headache or chucker many though he would be.
He went from a 32% 3 point shooter to 36/37% shooter while almost doubling his 3PTr.

I think a healthy Morris is a great fit on this team and a positive asset. Not one you dump along with a 2nd like he is Jason Smith.

Yeah...the hate here for Kieff is often over the top. I attribute some of it to the herd mentality.

[payitforward]

The only reason I haven't responded is this **** site is a piece of **** on mobile devices! I can't **** type more than a few sentences without my browser freezing!

Yeah -- & my frowser not only breezes but it keeps witching swords around so no one can stunderand me.

[NatP4]

Hell, we will include a 2nd rounder with him.

Dude, how quickly we forget a guy how Kieff was top 10 in RPM when healthy...
Now you would trade 2nd to get rid of him and his expiring 8M salary?!?

He has his flaws which are obvious, but has hasnt been the locker room headache or chucker many though he would be.
He went from a 32% 3 point shooter to 36/37% shooter while almost doubling his 3PTr.

I think a healthy Morris is a great fit on this team and a positive asset. Not one you dump along with a 2nd like he is Jason Smith.

Yeah...the hate here for Kieff is often over the top. I attribute some of it to the herd mentality.

do you care to elaborate on that, instead of insulting people?

[payitforward]

Hell, we will include a 2nd rounder with him.

Dude, how quickly we forget a guy how Kieff was top 10 in RPM when healthy...
Now you would trade 2nd to get rid of him and his expiring 8M salary?!?

He has his flaws which are obvious, but has hasnt been the locker room headache or chucker many though he would be.
He went from a 32% 3 point shooter to 36/37% shooter while almost doubling his 3PTr.

I think a healthy Morris is a great fit on this team and a positive asset. Not one you dump along with a 2nd like he is Jason Smith.

Yeah...the hate here for Kieff is often over the top. I attribute some of it to the herd mentality.

pcbothwei -- what is RPM? How is it calculated?

You are absolutely correct, & it's good to point it out repeatedly (I mean it), that Kieff has been no kind of bad citizen, no kind of troublemaker, posed no kind of difficulty whatsoever.

Zards -- credit where it's due; you pointed out that Kieff had significantly upped his 3-point % in 2016-17 & predicted he would keep it in that new range. He did.

Oddly, neither of you mentioned that this year he also upped his 2 pt. % -- he was above average for a big on both 3s & 2s. Not only that, but his FT% was above average as well.

The result was that Kieff's TS% was also above average for a big -- for only the 2d time in his career & the first time since 2013-14. If you figure in everything else except rebounding, Kieff hits about average for an NBA 4. It's rebounding that remains his biggest problem. He gets @ 1/2 as many offensive boards as an average 4, & he's below average on defensive boards as well.

All the same, this was his best year since '13-14 & (obviously) his best year as a Wizard. Was he "good", whatever that means? No. But he wasn't as terrible as one might have feared. &, since he improved over the previous year, & that year was better than his first partial season with us, who knows -- maybe he'll keep improving.

For sure, he was better than Jason Smith this year. But, he wasn't better than Jason Smith in 2016-17.

[dckingsfan]

I think the issue with Morris is really a beef with the coach and not playing Porter more at the 4. But... to be honest, Porter wasn't very healthy at the end of the season so that killed small ball as much as anything (at least during that period of time).

And PIF points out that Morris isn't a very good rebounder - so you can't really slide him over to the 5 very easily.

The question is - if you "dumped" Morris would that increase the number of minutes that we play small ball or does that just increase the number of minutes that you play Smith/Mahimni or something equally ridiculous.

[NatP4]

I think the issue with Morris is really a beef with the coach and not playing Porter more at the 4. But... to be honest, Porter wasn't very healthy at the end of the season so that killed small ball as much as anything (at least during that period of time).

And PIF points out that Morris isn't a very good rebounder - so you can't really slide him over to the 5 very easily.

The question is - if you "dumped" Morris would that increase the number of minutes that we play small ball or does that just increase the number of minutes that you play Smith/Mahimni or something equally ridiculous.

so true. Get ready for Jason Smith back at PF.

Will also add, playing small would give Troy Brown Jr actual playing time in the NBA.

Morris would be just fine as a backup PF at 20ish minutes per game, especially if you get 2016-2017 Morris, which was actually good. Problem is, we just added Jeff Green, who was better than Morris in 2017-2018, but a pretty similar player overall.

Bottom line, the best PF on the roster is #22

[DCZards]

With Howard around to help out on the boards I expect to see Otto playing more 4 next season. But I think it would be a huge mistake to play Otto extended minutes at the 4. His body is just not built for the pounding. Playing Porter more than 20-25 mins (and that might be too many minutes) at the 4 and asking him to bang bodies with and block out much bigger men is a recipe for continued injury woes for OP.

[prime1time]

With Howard around to help out on the boards I expect to see Otto playing more 4 next season. But I think it would be a huge mistake to play Otto extended minutes at the 4. His body is just not built for the pounding. Playing Porter more than 20-25 mins (and that might be too many minutes) at the 4 and asking him to bang bodies with and block out much bigger men is a recipe for continued injury woes for OP.

Context is everything. Asking Porter to guard Ryan Anderson is vastly different than asking him to guard Julian Randle. Regardless, Otto needs more touches this year. He's arguably our best offensive player.

[payitforward]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

[DCZards]

With Howard around to help out on the boards I expect to see Otto playing more 4 next season. But I think it would be a huge mistake to play Otto extended minutes at the 4. His body is just not built for the pounding. Playing Porter more than 20-25 mins (and that might be too many minutes) at the 4 and asking him to bang bodies with and block out much bigger men is a recipe for continued injury woes for OP.

Context is everything. Asking Porter to guard Ryan Anderson is vastly different than asking him to guard Julian Randle. Regardless, Otto needs more touches this year. He's arguably our best offensive player.

Yup...Otto needs more touches, many more touches in fact. But OP needs to be more aggressive and confident when he gets those touches.

[pcbothwel]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

[prime1time]

With Howard around to help out on the boards I expect to see Otto playing more 4 next season. But I think it would be a huge mistake to play Otto extended minutes at the 4. His body is just not built for the pounding. Playing Porter more than 20-25 mins (and that might be too many minutes) at the 4 and asking him to bang bodies with and block out much bigger men is a recipe for continued injury woes for OP.

Context is everything. Asking Porter to guard Ryan Anderson is vastly different than asking him to guard Julian Randle. Regardless, Otto needs more touches this year. He's arguably our best offensive player.

Yup...Otto needs more touches, many more touches in fact. But OP needs to be more aggressive and confident when he gets those touches.

I agree. Can you think of any good comps to Otto, in terms of being efficient but not really being aggressive? I just looked at his ESPN game log. What stands out to me months of October and March. in October he was around 14 shots per game, made 56% and put up 18.7 a gam. In February he averaged 14.5 shots, shot 52% from the field and averaged 19, 7 and 3. Here's another question. What's the ideal # of shot attempts you'd like to see from Otto this year? For me I'd be elated with 15+ attempts and 6.5+ attempts from three. I want more Wall/Otto and Beal/Otto pick and rolls. If we get the switch, I want Otto to go to the wing and do his thing. One really good aspect of his game is his high release.

[dckingsfan]

With Howard around to help out on the boards I expect to see Otto playing more 4 next season. But I think it would be a huge mistake to play Otto extended minutes at the 4. His body is just not built for the pounding. Playing Porter more than 20-25 mins (and that might be too many minutes) at the 4 and asking him to bang bodies with and block out much bigger men is a recipe for continued injury woes for OP.

I think Porters is at least as good a rebounder if not better than Morris right now - especially if you think that you get more rebounds at PF than at SF, no?

As the league has moved to smaller PFs, is this really that big an issue - you might be right in the east? Also, if you play Porter 25 minutes at PF and 5-7 minutes at SF - doesn't that make him more a PF?

But one thing Brooks did do is play ~ 59 min/gm - so there is that... The think that is worrisome is that with Howard/Mahimni/Morris/Green - do Kelly/Porter's minutes move toward SF/PF or toward SG/SF...

[prime1time]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

While I agree with everything you wrote, the challenge with the Wizards is that they have never played up to their ability. On paper we look solid, but for some reason or another it doesn't translate. If we can move the ball offensively and play scrappy defense, we can compete with any team in the East. Beal, Porter and Oubre are better versions of the team that took Boston 7. And that team had no bench. I'm excited to see this team play. I really hope Brooks staggers lineups and gives us more rotations with Beal and Porter initiating the offense. I also think lineups with Rivers being the main ball handler and Oubre working off of him can be effective. Ultimately, I think a lot of pressure is going to fall on Brooks' shoulders. The right coach could make this work.

[prime1time]

With Howard around to help out on the boards I expect to see Otto playing more 4 next season. But I think it would be a huge mistake to play Otto extended minutes at the 4. His body is just not built for the pounding. Playing Porter more than 20-25 mins (and that might be too many minutes) at the 4 and asking him to bang bodies with and block out much bigger men is a recipe for continued injury woes for OP.

I think Porters is at least as good a rebounder if not better than Morris right now - especially if you think that you get more rebounds at PF than at SF, no?

As the league has moved to smaller PFs, is this really that big an issue - you might be right in the east? Also, if you play Porter 25 minutes at PF and 5-7 minutes at SF - doesn't that make him more a PF?

But one thing Brooks did do is play ~ 59 min/gm - so there is that... The think that is worrisome is that with Howard/Mahimni/Morris/Green - do Kelly/Porter's minutes move toward SF/PF or toward SG/SF...

They can't move to SG can they? We are already pretty deep there. Wall, Rivers, Beal, Tomas, Brown Jr. But tbh, all this talk of strict positions is outdated. When the Wiz go small, teams will have to follow suit because of our ability to stretch the floor and the fact that multiple players can put the ball on the floor. When that happens we will switch everything. One thing I do like about our team, is the lack of one dimensional players. Otto, Oubre and Beal can all shoot, put the ball on the floor, finish and play defense.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

While I agree with everything you wrote, the challenge with the Wizards is that they have never played up to their ability. On paper we look solid, but for some reason or another it doesn't translate. If we can move the ball offensively and play scrappy defense, we can compete with any team in the East. Beal, Porter and Oubre are better versions of the team that took Boston 7. And that team had no bench. I'm excited to see this team play. I really hope Brooks staggers lineups and gives us more rotations with Beal and Porter initiating the offense. I also think lineups with Rivers being the main ball handler and Oubre working off of him can be effective. Ultimately, I think a lot of pressure is going to fall on Brooks' shoulders. The right coach could make this work.

Ugh. I was kind of with you until you praised the idea of Beal initiating the offense.

[trast66]

Kieff is expiring; except as a way of getting us under the tax -- which is absolutely critical if it is true that we'd be a repeater -- I can't see him being traded. He played 2000 minutes last year. Unless we were acquiring someone who could take those minutes, we don't have someone on the roster who can do it.

Of course, if we could trade him for a young 4 with promise, who cost less, & who we would have control over for a few years (i.e. someone on a rookie contract), that would be great. But... unlikely.

Can Thomas Bryant play the 4? If so, definitely give him a shot, give him some minutes & see what he does with them. We're no threat this year to take the East; it's time to start reconfiguring.

Kieff/Tax: Again, I think the plan is to simply get to 2019 and see how the team looks, health, etc. While we are desperate to get under, I see too many avenues to do so. Trading Rivers or stretching Mahinmi, trading Kieff and Smith/Meeks.

That said... stretching Mahinmi doesnt make sense. Assuming hes healthy and plays strong defense, he is a rotation caliber player. You shouldnt stretch those types. You trade them for a TERRIBLE player with a slightly better contract and stretch them.
Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, Asik, Dellavedova, felicio, JR Smith... SOMEONE will prove to be unplayable.

Contending: i dont see how people see this "No threat this year to take the East".
Its the Raptors and the Celtics. Both look great, but they each have a star player in his walk year that clearly wants to leave. You cant just gloss over that fact.

The Pacers are good, but McMillan is hit/miss and they have a series of players coming off career years well into/past their prime in Tyreke, Collison, and Bogey. Strong, but Ill take my chances.

The Bucks arent impressive

The 76ers are the darling, but simply counting on Simmons and Embiid to stay healthy AND get better is far from certain. Redick and Amir are another year older. Everything else seems lateral. Holmes for Muscala. Belinelli for Chandler. Anderson/TLC for Zhaire/Shamet.

Healthy and in shape Wall. Beal and Otto starting into their prime. Healthy Keiff and motivated Dwight. Rivers and Oubre in their walk year. Sato in his prime.

We have a high ceiling/talent level with our 3 stars. We have continuity/familiarity. We have depth. We have athletes, length, and wings. We arent being pumped up by media anymore as the "up and comers".
NOT SAYING we are anything to bragg about, but there is clear lane to the ECF... which constitutes "Threat"

The next two years are a clear window, especially if Kawhi and Kyrie walk.

I like the positivity, but I think you are overrating us a bit. Anyway, so if we keep all these guys will be in repeater tax (we did pay tax last year). If I were GM would get under tax while still trying to compete, as while we will likely be 6-8 seed, ECF not out of question. So as painful as it is, would need to part with 1st round pick to trade Ian, who should play ZERO minutes in the playoffs. 2019 1st (lottery protected), 1 or 2 future 2nds, and Ian to Kings (only team under cap) for Willie Cauley-Stein. Stretch Smith if we have to (I don't think we do, the trade should get us $100K or so under luxury tax). We have to move on from Ian. If EG was fired a year ago that would have been new GM's first move.